Daily tips for August 26

NRL (round 24) for August 26

Cronulla Sharks (12-9) v Sydney Roosters (17-4), Ramondis Stadium, Monday, August 26, 7pm

Having scored an unlikely last-minute win against old rivals St George Illawarra last week, Cronulla will be looking to cement their finals spot and make a huge statement of intent when they host the Sydney Roosters. But it will take a Herculean performance if they are to halt the momentum of the competition leaders who have won eight in a row and handed the Sharks a rugby league lesson when they belted them 40-0 just five weeks ago. But with a full strength side, I’m expecting that the Sharks can salute at our custom line of +8 tonight.

Currently in sixth spot on the ladder with 28 competition points, they need just one more win to guarantee themselves a spot come September and will probably sneak in anyway even if they suffer a sudden and dramatic collapse. Of course, they’ll be aiming much higher than that. This is the time of year when the true contenders start to make a statement and with the likes of Beau Ryan and Anthony Tupou returning from injury last week and lock Wade Graham back this week, perhaps the stars are indeed aligning at the right time of year.

It’s been a long time since any side has even come close to downing the Chooks. Their eight-game winning run has seen them score a whopping 266 points including at least 28 points in each of their past six, while they have managed to hold opponents to nil on five separate occasions in 2013. The impact of their big-name signings this season comes as no surprise but they also boast depth with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck impressing at fullback in the absence of injured captain Anthony Minichiello and Daniel Mortimer providing a foil for Maloney and Pearce as well as hooker Jake Friend off the bench.

Suggested bet: Cronulla +8.5 (three units @ $1.82) WIN (32-22)

Racing for August 26

Horse racing: Warrnambool (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Bathurst (NSW). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Warragul (Vic), Pinjarra (WA). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Northam (WA), Nowra (NSW), Shepparton (Vic).

Hawkesbury trainer Garry White has an outstanding ratio of runners-to-winners when he sends starters to Bathurst and will be hoping to continue the rich vein of form in today’s seven-race card to be run on a slow (6). White’s runner in the Regional Telecommunications Class 2 Handicap over 1400 metres, #6 Magical Tales will appreciate a drop in grade here. The six-year-old daughter of Tale Of The Cat will be having her fourth run back from a break after finishing a 1.4 length fourth at Hawkesbury last time out. She’s been placed eight times in 17 starts and looks well placed to add to that tally here.

Suggested bet: Bathurst R6 #3 Magical Tales WIN (two units @ $1.65) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Warrnambool R1 #4 Makana Lei (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.50)

Warrnambool R2 #3 Oak Heart (win) LOSE (U/P)

Warrnambool R7 #1 Red Corner (win) LOSE (2nd)

Warrnambool R8 #14 Lady Jodalyna (E/W) 1st ($7.30/$2.50)

Grafton R1 #1 Special Miss (E/W 1x2)  2nd ($1.70)

Grafton R2 #5 Note To Bee (win) LOSE (U/P)

Grafton R6 #2 Kapcat (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Bathurst R1 #4 Hall of Peace (win) 1st ($1.60)

Bathurst R2 #1 Alittlebitofduey (win) LOSE (U/P)

Bathurst R4 #6 Oywotzy (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.70/$1.50)

Harness racing tip: Warragul R1 #1 Major Landscape (win) SCRATCHED

Greyhound racing tip: Shepparton R8 2/1 Boxed Exacta

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 4)

Over the coming weeks, I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting ahead of the September 7 poll. The fourth State for preview is Victoria.

No. of House of Representatives seats: 37 (ALP holds 22 seats, Coalition holds 14 seats, Greens hold 1 seat)

The expected wipeout of Labor in New South Wales and Queensland isn’t likely to translate into Victoria with only a handful of changes expected in next Saturday’s Federal Election. Back in 2010, the gains of La Trobe and McEwen helping offset significant losses in Queensland and New South Wales for Labor. This time, Victoria is expected to play an unusually small role. With polling suggesting a swing to the Coalition, they are expected to pick up the three ALP seats held by a margin of under one per cent but will need to improve significantly to get a fourth with Chisholm the next in line to fall at 5.8 per cent. The seat of Melbourne will also prove a fascinating battle as the Greens look to retain their only seat in the House in the face of a strong challenge from the ALP.

Melbourne and its suburban surrounds contain 25 of Victoria’s 37 seats with the ALP holding 17 to the Coalition’s seven with the Greens holding one. The seven Coalition seats – with the expected swing to Tony Abbott – are not expected to be in any danger. Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong and Menzies are all safe Coalition seats in Melbourne’s east with margins greater than six per cent while Aston, Casey and Dunkley – all with margins of less than two per cent – are strongly favoured to be retained. Of Labor’s 17 seats, six (Calwell, Gorton, Lalor, Scullin, Wills and Gellibrand) are held on margins greater than 20 per cent with a further five (Isaacs, Jagajaga, Holt, Hotham and Maribyrnong) have double-figure margins. Melbourne Ports and Bruce both have margins of greater than 7.7 per cent and are in no danger while the Greens pose only an outside threat in the inner-city seat of Batman. Chisholm is another seat – at 5.8% – that is viewed as being only an outside chance of switching.

That leaves Deakin and La Trobe, both on margins of less than two per cent, as the Labor-held Melbourne seats that are considered in trouble. The Eastern Suburbs seat of Deakin, on a margin of just 0.6 per cent, is strongly expected to return to its natural inclination of a Liberal MP, which it has been for all but seven years since its creation in 1937. La Trobe, in Melbourne’s outer-east, is more salvageable for Labor on 1.7 per cent but former MP Jason Wood will recontest the seat. The redistribution has given Labor more breathing room but it would be a surprise if they held La Trobe. The most intriguing seat is the seat of Melbourne. Claimed by the Greens in 2010 following the retirement of Lindsay Tanner, Melbourne is a prize the ALP is hoping to regain this time around. Greens MP Adam Bandt has done a tremendous job in connecting with the community but must win without Liberal preferences, as he did in 2010. The ALP are favoured here but the smart money is on a Greens retain.

Victoria has 12 seats that are classified rural and it is really only the seat of Corangamite that creates any real interest. The Coalition have seven rural seats – Flinders, Gippsland, Mallee, Murray, Wannon, Indi and McMillan – which are not expected to be threatened, though there is a groundswell in Indi for a potential independent upset. Labor hold four seats that are likely out of reach for the Coalition as well with McEwen (after the recent redistribution), Bendigo, Ballarat and Corio – all based in populated regional areas – expected to be retained by Labor. That leaves the seat of Corangamite on a margin of just 0.4 per cent. Darren Cheeseman won the seat for the ALP in 2007 and held on in 2010 against Sarah Henderson, who is again challenging for the Coalition. The seat was a conservative held from 1931 to 2007 and it is strongly favoured to go back.

Seats to watch

Melbourne – Greens/Adam Bandt (WIN) $3.60

Indi – Independent/Cathy McGowan (WIN) $3.80

ALP safest seat – Batman ($4.00) 

NFL pre-season (week 3) for August 26

Minnesota Vikings (0-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-1), Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA, Monday, August 26, 10am

Two quarterbacks from the 2011 NFL Draft class will go head-to-head to complete week 3 of the NFL pre-season. One was drafted in the first round and is playing for his job this season. The other was drafted in the second round has lead his team to a Super Bowl. Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick are two quarterbacks on the opposite end of the job security spectrum. Ponder is more experienced in terms of games played and was the higher draft pick, but Kaepernick has the edge in ability and achievements at this point in their respective careers. The Vikings enter the 2013 season with plenty to prove on offence. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL, but Ponder needs to take a step forward to get this offense to the next level. That may be tough to do with the departure of Percy Harvin, but the Vikings are hoping Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson can help pick up the slack.

Defensively, Minnesota will rely on rookies Sharrif Floyd and Xavier Rhodes to make an impact right away. Floyd won’t play for the remainder of the preseason after injuring his knee in the first exhibition game. Kaepernick enters his first full season as the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback, and he will have plenty of talent around him to help make it a successful one. Michael Crabtree may be injured, but the 49ers still have one of the league’s best offensive lines and a formidable group of receivers. Add in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching ability, and it’s not a stretch to call San Francisco one of the NFC’s most dangerous offenses. But the 49ers built this thing on defence, and the strength lies in the front seven, which is loaded with young, talented players. They will be looking for improvement from the secondary, but Nnamdi Asomugha has shown signs of life after signing a team-friendly deal with San Francisco this off-season.

Suggested bet: Minnesota +3 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE, game total +39 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (14-34)

Other tips

Saints @ Texans +44.5 WIN (31-23)

MLB for August 26

Colorado Rockies (60-71, 24-44 away) @ Miami Marlins (49-79, 29-38 home), Marlins Park, Miami, FL, Monday, August 26, 3.10am

The Marlins duly saluted as my best bet yesterday, but I’ll be siding with the Rockies here as they may not need too many runs to end the trip to south Florida on a positive note. Jorge De La Rosa seeks his fourth straight win and 14th overall as the Rockies try for their first road series win in nearly seven weeks against the Miami Marlins. Todd Helton, who moved into 96th place on the all-time hit list with 2496 in 17 seasons, had two of Colorado’s four hits off All-Star rookie Jose Fernandez in yesterday’s 3-0 loss. Teammate Michael Cuddyer had the only other two hits, raising his average to .419 during an eight-game hitting streak.

The Rockies (60-71) have averaged 3.1 runs and batted .177 with runners in scoring position while dropping six of their last eight on this 10-game trip that concludes here. Colorado, though, still has a chance to win its first road series since taking two of three in San Diego from July 8-10 with De La Rosa (13-6, 3.21 ERA) going to the mound. After allowing 11 runs and 16 hits in nine innings over two starts, the left-hander has a 2.45 ERA while winning his last three. He yielded three runs and three hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 5-3 win at Philadelphia on Tuesday. De La Rosa has also won three straight against the Marlins (49-79), posting a 1.59 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings over his last four starts. He scattered five hits over six shutout innings in the last meeting, a 2-1 win on July 24.

Miami starter Jacob Turner (3-4, 3.02) lost to De La Rosa in that contest, giving up two runs and six hits over six innings. Turner has allowed 14 walks and 19 hits while failing to make it out of the sixth in his last three outings. He was tagged for four runs and season-worst 10 hits over five innings Tuesday but did not receive a decision in Miami’s 6-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The right-hander has gone 0-3 with a 3.99 ERA in his last seven starts, getting only 11 runs of support in those outings. Miami will try to reverse that trend, though it has tallied six runs while batting .169 over its last four games.

Suggested bet: Rockies WIN (1.5 units @ $1.92) WIN, game total -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.80) WIN (4-3)

Other tips

IL: Tigers @ Mets WIN $2.37 LOSE +7.5 $1.91 WIN (11-3)

IL: Red Sox @ Dodgers WIN $1.97 LOSE -7.5 $2.00 LOSE (8-1)

AL: Yankees WIN $2.32 WIN @ Rays -7.5 $1.85 WIN (3-2)

AL: Blue Jays WIN $1.72 WIN @ Astros +8.5 $1.94 LOSE (2-1)

AL: Angels @ Mariners +7.5 $2.06 WIN (7-1)

NL: Brewers @ Reds WIN $1.51 LOSE (3-1)

NL: D'backs WIN $1.73 LOSE @ Phillies +8 $2.04 WIN (5-9)

NL: Braves @ Cardinals WIN $1.81 LOSE (5-2)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.77 LOSE @ Giants +7.5 $2.00 LOSE (0-4)

NL: Cubs +1.5 $1.62 @ Padres WIN (2-3)

EPL for August 25-26

Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City, White Hart Lane, London, UK, Monday, August 26, 1am

Tottenham have never lost at home to Swansea in the league and on the evidence of the opening day’s fixtures they’ll maintain that record here. Chairman Daniel Levy has astutely gone about his business once it became clear that Gareth Bale (pictured) wanted to go to Real Madrid (he's set to sign on Tuesday). He’s softened the blow for fans by bringing in exciting new players before the actual departure of the Welsh wizard. Roberto Soldado has banged in 16 in his last 14 games for club and country and will trouble a Swansea defence that caved in against Manchester United. Tottenham's season looks full of promise. It’s only a matter of time before they start genuinely challenging for the title even without Bale. Tottenham have lost just two Premier League matches since 9 December 2012.

Those defeats came in back-to-back matches against Liverpool and Fulham in March. Like so many sides before them, Swansea’s league form has dipped since winning the League Cup with just two victories from 12 Premier outings. Although that’s relegation form, they should be OK as long as they hold to Ashley Williams and Michu. The Welshman is the only really composed centre-back in their ranks and the Spaniard can only benefit from the arrival of Wilfried Bony. European football will be an exciting distraction, but they must get early league points on the board. Tottenham’s squad is big enough to deal with two big games in four days especially this early in the season. Swansea’s resources will be stretched thinner.

Suggested bet: Tottenham WIN (2.5 units @ $1.71) WIN (1-0)

Other tips

Cardiff City v Manchester City 2+ ($2.30) LOSE (3-2)

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