Daily tips for August 12

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 2)

Over the coming weeks, I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting for the September 7 poll. The second State for preview is South Australia.

No. of House of Representatives seats: 11 (ALP holds 6 seats, Coalition holds 5 seats)

It’s with a degree of irony that in Julia’s Gillard’s new home state (having just purchased a home there), the impact of her time as Prime Minister is unlikely to result in much change to the Federal political landscape. Even allowing for a significant swing towards the Coalition, Labor-held seats in South Australia are unlikely to fall under much pressure. The Coalition will retain Barker, Grey, Mayo and Sturt, where they hold a margin upwards of at least 7.4 per cent. For the ALP, Port Adelaide is also safe with a margin of 20.0 per cent. The seat of Boothby is the only marginal Coalition seat in SA but Andrew Southcott is highly regarded as a strong local MP and the ALP are unlikely to mount a serious challenge here.

That leaves five ALP seats – all with a margin of more than 5.7 per cent and three with margins beyond 12 per cent. The most marginal of these seats is Hindmarsh, which takes in Adelaide’s western suburbs and has been boosted to a 6.1 per cent margin with the recent redistribution. Steve Georganas has worked here for the ALP and it would be surprising to see the Coalition win here. Adelaide is the other seat with a single-digit ALP margin with high-profile minister Kate Ellis considered in danger of losing before Kevin Rudd returned to power. That is now considered unlikely, with the 7.5 per cent margin although Trish Worth held the seat until 2004 for the Liberals.

If the nation was swept by a landslide against the Rudd Government, then Kingston could come into play. The ALP’s Amanda Rishworth won the seat a 13.9 per cent margin in 2010 and redistribution has boosted the margin to almost 15 per cent but this was a Coalition seat before the 2007 election. I expect the margin to be slashed to 4-5 per cent but the seat is unlikely to change hands. Similarly, Makin was captured by Tony Zappia from the Coalition in 2007, with his majority boosted further in 2010. He’ll see a swing back to the Coalition but the seat will remain in Labor hands. Wakefield in the Adelaide surrounds to the north of the city has a margin of 12 per cent. It was once considered a safe Liberal seat and was held by the party until a major redistribution in 2004. The margin is again inflated but there should be no dramas for the ALP in retaining. The major parties won’t spend much time in SA and if the Coalition aren’t putting resources into winning SA seats, it is likely SA will remain 6-5 in favour of the ALP.

Seats to watch

None (sorry Jonny)

Racing for August 12

Horse racing: Swan Hill (Vic), Tamworth (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bankstown (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Pinjarra (WA), Shepparton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Northam (WA), Nowra (NSW), Shepparton (Vic).

Just two meetings scheduled for today but I’ll still be tuning in with a blackbooker jumping in the Betfair Power to the Punter Maiden Plate over 1300m in the fourth at Swan Hill. #1 Export Quality made an impressive debut at Cranbourne on July 18 but failed to run down eventual winner Lord Sherwood after he’d cleared out. This set weights maiden looks ideal for the 4yo stallion, trained at Flemington by John Sadler for the Campolina team and ridden here by Jamie Mott.

Suggested bet: Swan Hill R4 #1 Export Quality E/W 1x4 (two units) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Swan R1 #15 Hot Ruby (place) 2nd ($4.20)

Swan Hill R5 #8 Absolvent (E/W) 2nd ($1.70)

Swan Hill R9 #3 Skawboard Pressure (win) LOSE (2nd)

Tamworth R3 #6 Dayzari (win) LOSE (2nd)

Tamworth R6 #2 Double Halo (win) LOSE (U/P)

Tamworth R8 #4 Kalahari Princess (win) 1st ($2.90)

Harness racing tip: Shepparton R9 #4 Abstract Lady (win) 1st ($2.00)
Greyhound racing tip: Ange Park R2 #3 Wild Soul (win) 1st ($2.80)

NFL pre-season (week 1) for August 12

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, Monday, August 12, 3.30am

Bills head coach Doug Marrone announced that rookie quarterback EJ Manuel will get the start in this pre-season opener. Jeff Tuel will also see a good chunk of action. Due to a death in the family and left knee injury, Kevin Kolb will be sidelined here as he practiced only once in the previous week. Manuel, the Bills first round pick in the 2013 draft (16th overall), threw for 3392 yards, 23 TDs and 10 interceptions in his senior season at Florida State. Buffalo WR Stevie Johnson will not play due to a strained hamstring, which means T.J. Graham and rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin will get plenty of opportunities with the first team offense.

It is expected that Colts starters will be limited to one series, possibly two. The focus for Indy, however, will be an overhauled defense. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky will be watching closely as he looks to fill the void left by six defensive starters from 2012 that have moved to new teams. There is also a nice battle at running back in the Colts camp. The No. 1 job belongs to Vick Ballard, but he's being pushed by Donald Brown and rookie Kerwynn Williams, who has put in some time with the first team at camp. Ahmad Bradshaw will miss Sunday's game. It may be only a pre-season game, but I like Manuel and the Bills here.

Suggested bet: Bills +3.5 (two units) WIN (44-20)

MLB for August 12

Detroit Tigers (69-46, 32-27 away) @ New York Yankees (58-57, 30-26 home), Yankee Stadium, New York, NY, Monday, August 12, 2.35am

A day after having their 12-game winning streak snapped, the Detroit Tigers bounced back for a lopsided victory, simultaneously resuming the New York Yankees’ post-All-Star break free fall. I expect that New York’s woes will continue here at Yankee Stadium versus Justin Verlander, who seems to be rounding into form after a mechanical adjustment. The Yankees (58-57) opened the series with a 4-3 victory in 10 innings Friday, but tumbled back to Earth on Saturday with a 9-3 defeat. Miguel Cabrera homered for the third time in four games despite playing on a bandaged leg, and Torii Hunter and Austin Jackson also went deep as Detroit (69-46) improved to 17-4 since the break. Jackson is 10 for 21 over his last four games with nine runs, four doubles, two triples and two homers. The Yankees are 7-13 since the break – the worst mark by any team with a winning record – though another loss Sunday would see them slip to .500 for the first time since being 5-5 on April 13.

Alex Rodriguez wasn’t in the line-up on Saturday for the first time since making his season debut. He was 0 for 4 and struck out three times Friday in his first game back in the Bronx, getting relentlessly booed. It's hardly been a career year for Verlander (12-8, 3.50 ERA), whose ERA is his highest since 2008. However, he's coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since early June, limiting his last two opponents to two runs over 14 innings while striking out 13. NY starter Andy Pettitte (7-9, 4.71) comes off his worst showing of the season as he gave up seven runs and 11 hits (10 singles) in 2 2/3 innings of an 8-1 road loss to the Chicago White Sox. Three of those runs came in the first inning against the left-hander, who is the first Yankees pitcher in almost a century to allow at least one run in the first inning of seven straight starts in a single season. Pettitte has given up 14 first-inning runs in that span, and opponents are hitting .396 against him in the first frame this year.

Suggested bet: Detroit -1.5 (2.5 units @ $1.95) LOSE, game total +8.5 (1.5 units @ $1.95) WIN (4-5)

IL: Orioles WIN $2.08 WIN @ Giants -7 $1.91 LOSE (10-2)

IL: Brewers @ Mariners WIN $1.55 WIN (0-2)

IL: Rays @ Dodgers WIN $1.53 -6.5 $1.77

AL: Angels @ Indians WIN $1.59 WIN (5-6)

AL: Athletics @ Blue Jays WIN $1.85 LOSE (6-4)

AL: Twins @ White Sox WIN $1.78 LOSE (5-2)

AL: Red Sox @ Royals WIN $2.04 WIN -8.5 $1.83 WIN (3-4)

AL: Rangers @ Astros WIN $2.68 LOSE (6-1)

NL: Padres @ Reds WIN $1.56 WIN (2-3)

NL: Marlins @ Braves -1.5 $1.91 WIN +7 $2.03 WIN (4-9)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals WIN $1.51 WIN (4-8)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.71 @ Rockies LOSE (2-3)

NL: Phillies @ Nationals +7 $1.93 LOSE (0-6)

NL: Mets WIN $2.32 @ Diamondbacks WIN (9-5)

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