Daily tips for August 31

NRL (round 25) for August 31

Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm, Brookvale Oval, Saturday, August 31, 7.35pm

The greatest rivalry of the past decade continues this Saturday as reigning premiers Melbourne take on Manly in the latest rendition of the ‘Battle of Brookvale’. Games between Manly and Melbourne always seem to create something special. Earlier this year they played out a nail-biting 10-all draw and with them sitting in third and fourth on the NRL ladder on the eve of the finals, you can rest assured they will be out to make a statement. For the Sea Eagles, this is an important game if for no other reason than the fact that they are yet to beat a fellow top-four side in 2013. For all coach Geoff Toovey’s frustrations in the 22-10 loss to South Sydney a fortnight ago, they have now lost two games to the Rabbitohs and two to the Roosters this season to go with their Storm draw and could do with the confidence boost of scoring a win against another title contender.

The Storm are one side that nobody wants to face off against in the finals given their fine pedigree in big games and hot form over the past month. Last week’s 64-4 demolition of Parramatta sent a strong message to the likes of Manly that they are back to their clinical best. Incredibly, it was the second time in four games they had passed 60 after downing Canberra 68-4 in Round 21. The pain of losing five-eighth Gareth Widdop for the season has now eased, with Brett Finch having settled back into his old role, while the hot form of Cameron Smith and Billy Slater has typically returned at the business end of the year. Storm coach Craig Bellamy has made one change, with Tohu Harris back into the squad on the bench and Tim Glasby the 18th man. (Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Melbourne -1.5 (three units @ $1.74) LOSE (28-8)

AFL (round 23) for August 30

St Kilda (4-17) v Fremantle (16-1-4), Etihad Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 1.45pm AEST

Kudos to those who bet the Saints at +36.5 points when the market opened. They’re now 1.5-point favourites! I can’t remember more changes to a side for a single match than Fremantle, with Michael Johnson, David Mundy, Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Hayden Ballantyne and Nat Fyfe rested among 10 ‘outs’ for the Dockers. After enduring a horror run against the Saints, Fremantle has won the past two – coincidentally the same games Ross Lyon has coached against his former club. Last time out, the Saints turned in one of their better showings of 2013 in a five-goal loss at Patersons Stadium. St Kilda will be keen to farewell stalwarts Justin Koschitzke (also celebrating his 200th game along side Adam Schneider) and Stephen Milne with a victory but it’s difficult to make an accurate assessment given the Freo squad that flew east. I’m leaning to a play on the game total ‘over’ with little at stake here.

Suggested bet: Fremantle WIN (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +177.5 (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (112-41)

Geelong (15-15) v Brisbane Lions (10-11), Simonds Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 2.10pm AEST

It’s been three years since the Lions made the trek down the Princes Freeway to the ‘Cattery’, and they’ll be greeted by familiar conditions with unseasonably warm weather expected across the state this weekend. Back in round 13, the Lions scored one of the upsets of the season when they ran over the top of Geelong at the Gabba in one of the top 10 comebacks in League history. But after the Cats humbled the Swans under lights at Kardinia Park last week, it’s hard to make a case for the Lions who are traveling with a caretaker coach and without spearhead Daniel Merrett. If Port beats Carlton, victory here would deliver the Lions a spot in the finals – a staggering outcome given they were 4-9 less than two months ago. This is still a tricky betting proposition though as Chris Scott may be tempted to rest his key players once victory is assured.

Suggested bet: Game total +185.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (112-111)

Port Adelaide (12-9) v Carlton (10-11), AAMI Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 4.40pm AEST

What appears on the surface to be the game of the round is, on paper, a fizzer – Port Adelaide will finish seventh on the ladder regardless of what happens here. But two additional factors come into play – this is the last game to be played at Football Park, and I’m not sure that Ken Hinkley can afford to flirt with the form of his side, who’ve been the surprise packets of 2013 but have lost their past two. The equation is simple for the Blues – win here and they’ll finish eighth. Carlton has regained Andrew Walker, Matthew Kreuzer and Jeff Garlett for the trip to Adelaide. I like Port in this spot – the Blues have a habit of choking in these ‘must-win’ spots and finished last week’s shock loss to the Bombers with disturbingly poor numbers in they key areas. In a fitting farewell to AAMI Stadium, the Power’s midfield will be too quick and their goal-scoring options too plentiful.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide -1.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (103-104)

Essendon (14-7) v Richmond (14-7), MCG, Saturday, August 31, 7.40pm AEST

The tinfoil hat brigade has had a ball deciphering the myriad possibilities here. Do the Bombers come out and make a statement after being booted out of the finals? Are the Essendon players mentally fried after the club’s fate was confirmed? Would the Tigers prefer to play Port Adelaide in the first week of the finals and risk a loss to do so? I think the conspiracy theorists will be sorely disappointed here as both sides will give their all – Essendon to end a horror year on a high note and Richmond to set the tone for their finals campaign. The loss of Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards will limit the Tigers’ forward rotations but Damien Hardwick won’t be too concerned given the goal scoring clout added by Aaron Edwards and Ivan Maric. Richmond defeated Essendon in the last round before its most recent finals appearance in 2001, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t win well here.

Suggested bet: Richmond 1-39 (two units @ $2.20) WIN (65-104)

West Coast (9-12) v Adelaide (9-12), Patersons Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 8.10pm AEST

Mathematically, both of these sides remained a chance of playing finals before the first ball is bounced in round 23, but the Crows are the only realistic hope here. Even if Adelaide’s finals dreams have ended by this point of the round, I still favour them to win. The Eagles have only won three games at home this year and in the past fortnight have recorded their lowest ever scores at both Subiaco and the MCG. John Worsfold was already without more than 10 players before Will Schofield was assaulted in Geelong last Saturday night, suffering serious facial injuries. The Crows barely made it out of third gear to score a big win over Melbourne last week and will still be pretty fresh for this. The Eagles pipped the Crows by a goal at AAMI Stadium just two months ago although fixtures between these sides have generally been one-sided and split evenly.

Suggested bet: Adelaide -1.5 (three units @ $1.93) WIN (43-129)

Racing for August 31

You know the Spring Carnival is around the corner when leading racing identities start popping up in the non-racing media. Sure enough, there was Andy Maher on Melbourne radio station SEN during the week introducing his great mate “Kav” – Mark Kavanagh (pictured below with Atlantic Jewel) – having just emerged from another winter’s hibernation. And the first thing he tells the punters is to be wary of unbeaten mare Atlantic Jewel at her comeback. Perhaps he's right, only time will tell, but history shows it is better to listen little to what Kavanagh says about the chances of his runners.

Last Saturday provided more examples of why punters should exercise caution when listening to trainers. In Sydney, second stringers for Chris Waller upstaged more fancied stablemates (Hidden Wonder beating Royal Descent was a great result for the bookies) while Gai Waterhouse criticised anyone who dared to suggest the win by War in the Up & Coming was a form reversal when its stablemate Pitcrew was backed for plenty and could finish only fourth.

That’s before you add in the most inaccurate of all – the media ‘expert’ tipsters who boast when they get it right, especially on SKY and TVN – but say little when they are wrong, which is the vast majority of the time. Try keeping track of one of the experts across the course of meeting and paper betting his or her tips. Even the corporate bookies’ tips on race eve of their ‘best’ and ‘lays’ of the day can prove way off the mark. Surprise, surprise – who benefits the most from your losses?

The More Joyous saga has barely been consigned to history and still punters will consider tips provided by Tom Waterhouse et al. Sure, Tom may have lost money on More Joyous, but his punters lost a stack more. Even if you’re little more than a casual punter, do your own homework and ignore any experts who can’t document consistent, long-term profit. If you lose, then you only have yourself to blame.

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Hawkesbury (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Kilmore (Vic), Armidale (NSW), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Bunbury (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Traralgon (Vic).

More and more of the big names expected to dominate the spring return to action today, with the highlight the running of the Group 1 $350,000 NZ Bloodstock Memsie Stakes at Caulfield, preceded by a ridiculously strong edition of the Listed $120,000 Slickpix Stakes. For my best of the day, it’s off to Rosehill Gardens for the Group 3 $125,000 MTA Run To The Rose (race 6) over 1200 metres for three-year-olds at set weights. Peter Snowden has either trained or been assistant trainer to four previous winners in Paratroopers (2005), El Cambio (2007), Desuetude (2008) and Denman (2009), and #1 Sidestep will come into the race at least the equal of those previous winners.

Last season’s G1 Golden Slipper runner up behind Overreach, Sidestep has raced just once since a spell for an eye-catching fourth in the San Domenico Stakes over 1100m here two weeks ago. On that occasion Snowden removed the blinkers and he was all over the shop but beaten just over a length by Va Pensiero. Snowden has elected to refit the blinkers, and with regular rider Kerrin McEvoy back in the saddle Sidestep will present much fitter and be better suited by the increase in distance to 1200m.

Suggested bet: Rosehill R6 #1 Sidestep E/W 1x2 (two units) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Caulfield R3 #1 Fibrillation (E/W) 2nd ($5.10)

Caulfield R4 #1 Miracles of Life (win) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R5 #4 Strawberry Boy (win) LOSE (3rd)

Caulfield R6 #8 It Is Written (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R7 #10 Pelicano (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Rosehill R1 #5 Aspen (place) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R2 #3 Tenby Lady (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Rosehill R3 # 3/4/9 Boxed Quinella 9-4 ($6.60)
Rosehill R4 #3 Danas Best (win) 1st ($3.00)

Rosehill R8 #9 Less Is More (E/W) 1st ($4.00/$2.10)

Doomben R3 #1 Mishani Warrior (win) LOSE (3rd)

Doomben R5 #2 Mukaddamah Son (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R6 #4 Regular (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Doomben R8 #3 Olympic Anthem (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

Morphettville R2 #4 Bardem (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Morphettville R4 #1 Little Miss Bourke (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R5 #1 Maelstrom (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R7 #5 Psychic Mick (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.80)

Belmont R1 #1 It’s A Merc (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.50)

Hawkesbury R4 #6 Ultimate Glory (win) 1st ($2.70)

Hawkesbury R8 #5 The Special Two (win) 1st ($2.00)

Gold Coast R6 #8 Whisky Highway (E/W) SCRATCHED

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R6 #6 McNiven (win) 1st ($1.20)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R9 #1 Rock Pepper (win) 1st ($1.60)

NCAAF (week 1) for August 30-31

AAC: Texas Tech Red Raiders @ SMU Mustangs, Gerald Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX, Saturday, August 31, 10am AEST

Former Texas Tech quarterback Kliff Kingsbury, the youngest coach in any BCS automatic qualifying conference, wants to win his debut as his alma mater visits SMU in a match-up of old Southwest Conference foes. SMU is playing its first game since becoming part of a BCS automatic qualifying conference, the American Athletic. The Red Raiders have won 14 in a row in the series since 1989. These two offences like to throw. SMU is meshing together coach June Jones' run-and-shoot with new offensive coordinator Hal Mumme’s “Air Raid” philosophy. Kingsbury threw for 12,429 yards and 95 touchdowns in 43 games as the Red Raiders quarterback, and last season was the Texas A&M offensive coordinator with Heisman Trophy-winning freshman QB Johnny Manziel. Tech will have one of two true freshmen with expected starter Michael Brewer, also without a collegiate start, dealing with a back issue.

Whoever is at the pivot, they will have some experienced weapons at their disposal in RB Kenny Williams and Eric Ward, Tech’s top rusher and receiver from 2012 respectively. Tight end Jace Amaro, will sit the first half due to a suspension. Jones has his QB returning for Southern Methodist along with some experienced receivers. Garrett Gilbert is back for his fifth collegiate season. The former Texas pivot has his 2-3-4 favourite targets from last season (Jeremy Johnson, Der'rikk Thompson and Keenan Holman) but is working with new faces on the line and in the backfield. The Mustangs have all four DB’s back but will field an entirely new defensive line is on the scene at SMU. It very well could be 100º, or close to it, at kick-off with only a hint of a dusty breeze.

Suggested bet: Texas Tech -4 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +60.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (41-23)

Other tips

Southern @ Houston +60.5 WIN (13-62)

Western Michigan +28 @ Michigan State WIN (13-26)

Samford -7.5 @ Georgia State WIN (31-21)

CFL (week 10) for August 30-31

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-4) @ BC Lions (5-3), BC Place, Vancouver, BC, Saturday, August 31, 12.10pm

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are the hottest team in the CFL, riding a three-game winning streak into their home-and-home series against the BC Lions. Hamilton will try to win four in a row for the first time since 2010 when it visits BC here. Tiger-Cats quarterback Henry Burris leads the league by 423 passing yards, driving an offense that has produced 104 points over the last three games now that its receiving corps is completely healthy. The Hamilton defense recorded its first four interceptions over the last two weeks in a home-and-home series against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Defensive backs Raymond Brown, Dee Webb and Rico Murray and linebacker Jamall Johnson all recorded picks. Johnson also leads the team in tackles with 25. C.J. Gable has taken the role of starting running back since recovering from injury, rushing for 193 yards as part of 344 yards from scrimmage during the winning streak.

The Lions stumbled on the road against the lowly Montreal Alouettes last week, losing 39-38 on a last-second field goal after a miracle pass completion by a backup quarterback. BC’s luck has been much better at BC Place, where it is 4-0 and no opponent has scored more than 22 points in a game. Lions quarterback Travis Lulay has not had a 300-yard passing game in 2013 and is on pace to set a career-high in interceptions with eight, making him the perfect representation of BC’s inefficiencies on offence. BC is tied for the league lead in interceptions with nine. Linebacker Solomon Elimimian is one of three Lions defenders with two interceptions and also leads the team in tackles with 42. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux continues to make big catches, with a team-leading 501 yards on only 26 receptions. Running back Andrew Harris leads the team in yards from scrimmage with 816 (534 of which are rushing yards).

Suggested bet: Hamilton WIN (one unit @ $3.05) LOSE, Hamilton +7 (2.5 units @ $1.87) WIN, game total +54 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (26-29)

MLB for August 30-31

Miami Marlins (49-83, 20-44 away) @ Atlanta Braves (81-52, 47-18 home), Turner Field, Atlanta, GA, Saturday, August 31, 9.40am

Jose Fernandez is a major contender for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, giving the Miami Marlins hope for a better future but fellow rookie Julio Teheran is likely focused on a bigger prize for the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. In what’s expected to be one of his final starts of the season, Fernandez attempts to become the first Marlins rookie in 10 years to win six straight decisions when he faces the Braves for the first time. The Marlins (49-83) are all but assured of finishing at the bottom of the East, and have dropped eight of nine after falling 9-0 at Washington on Thursday. Fernandez (10-5, 2.30 ERA), though, is giving them reason for optimism. The 21-year-old phenom has already emerged as Miami’s ace, leading rookies with 165 strikeouts while ranking third among all pitchers in ERA. Fernandez has a 1.33 ERA while winning all five decisions over his last eight starts, striking out 66 in 54 innings.

Like Fernandez, Teheran (10-7, 3.08) is probably also more concerned with his team's success during his stellar rookie season, but the Braves (81-52) are comfortably headed to the post-season and own the best record in baseball. The right-hander is looking to get untracked after allowing four runs and two homers with eight strikeouts and a season-high five walks in a 6-2 loss at St. Louis on Saturday. He had been 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA over his previous six starts. Brian McCann is hitting .344 with five homers and 15 RBIs over his last 17 home meetings with the Marlins, going 8 for 18 with two homers while plating five runs in five games this year. He enters this meeting 7 for 16 with five RBIs in the last four games at Turner Field, with two of those hits leaving the park. That includes a three-run homer in Thursday’s 3-1 win over Cleveland as the Braves’ winning streak reached four games.

Suggested bet: Braves WIN (3.5 units @ $1.76) WIN, game total -6.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (1-2)

Other tips

IL: Angels WIN $1.81 WIN @ Brewers -8 $1.96 WIN (5-0)

AL: Orioles @ Yankees -8.5 $1.96 LOSE (5-8)

AL: Indians @ Tigers WIN $1.69 WIN (2-7)

AL: White Sox WIN $2.45 @ Red Sox LOSE (3-4)

AL: Mariners @ Astros +9 $1.92 LOSE (7-1)

AL: Rays WIN $1.93 LOSE @ Athletics +6.5 $1.91 WIN (3-4)

NL: Phillies @ Cubs WIN $1.74 LOSE +9.5 $1.93 WIN (6-5)

NL: Mets @ Nationals -7.5 $2.11 WIN (3-2)

NL: Cardinals @ Pirates -7 $1.98 WIN (0-5)

NL: Reds WIN $1.77 @ Rockies LOSE (6-9)

NL: Giants @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.81 LOSE -8.5 $1.91 WIN (1-0)

NL: Padres @ Dodgers WIN $1.50 WIN +7 $1.88 WIN (2-9)

 

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