Daily tips for August 23

NRL (round 24) for August 23

Penrith Panthers (9-12) v Brisbane Broncos (9-1-11), Centrebet Stadium, Friday, August 24, 7.30pm

This is another massive game in terms of the battle for the last couple of places in the top eight. These two teams can't both make it, so this is as close to a finals game as you can get outside of the finals. It seems a minimum of 28 points will be required to get there, and if the Broncos lose this game the best they can attain in 27. If the Raiders lose, the best they can finish on is 26. Neither team is in the top eight at this stage. The Panthers are 12th on 22 points, from nine wins and 12 losses.

After three straight losses it appeared their season was at death's door, but they pulled it away from there by recording a surprise 28-24 win over the Warriors on the road last weekend. Points for-and-against differentials are critical in the battle for finals spots, and the Panthers' differential of minus-45 isn't bad enough at this stage to eliminate them from the race. Three straight wins could obviously improve it considerably. The Broncos are 10th on 23 points, from nine wins, 12 losses and a draw. The Panthers are two points outside of the top and the Broncos one point.

The Broncos have a differential of minus-24, but that would only come into play for positions if they finished level on points with the seventh-placed Knights, who have a differential of plus-70. The Broncos certainly have the better form. They have won three and drawn one of their past four, the wins coming against the Cowboys (18-16), Dragons (26-24) and Eels (22-12) and the draw against the Knights (18-18). But the Panthers would have been lifted enormously by their win over the Warriors. Suddenly, they are a chance again, and they can pump themselves up for a huge effort in front of a big home crowd. It all should make for a great contest.

Suggested bet: Penrith +2 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (28-12)

AFL (round 22) for August 23 

Collingwood (13-7) v West Coast (9-11), MCG, Friday, August 23, 7.50pm AEST 

What might have been for the Eagles in 2013 – last time they played Collingwood at the MCG, it was semi-final week in last year’s finals. The Magpies will again appear in the finals this year while West Coast’s slim hopes were dashed in emphatic fashion by Geelong in Perth last week. With their season done and dusted, the Eagles wasted little time making surgery appointments for Nic Naitanui, Daniel Kerr, Mark LeCras, Beau Waters and Shannon Hurn. Collingwood have dominated this fixture in recent times, with eight wins in nine starts and a string of victories at the MCG stretching back well into last decade. Even the Eagles ruck dominance won’t help much here as the Magpie midfield should ensure their forwards more than their fair share of opportunities. With a home final at stake, Collingwood should win well with the recent trend of low scores continuing. 

Suggested bet: Collingwood -34.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, game total -178.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (101-39)

Racing for August 23

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Scone (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Narrandera (NSW), Pioneer Park (NT), York (UK). Harness racing: Gold Coast (Qld), Young (NSW), Melton (Vic), Bankstown (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Winnellie Park (NT), Mandurah (WA).

The Geelong Synthetic track (pictured, with thanks to heraldsun.com.au) is hardly a favourite of punters, but that shouldn’t be the case. Firstly, there are two types of meetings – designated Geelong Synthetic meetings and those transferred from other venues mostly due to wet weather. So it hardly makes sense that a horse aimed at a bog Pakenham track is a similar betting proposition on a good (3) at Geelong. But for horses aimed specifically at Geelong Synthetic meetings, there’s consistent profit to be made. I start by steering clear of horses making their first start on the synthetic surface and lean to trainers with a good strike rate who’ve learned the vagaries of the track. Horses trained on the synthetic surface at Cranbourne are also worth considering.

So far this year the percentage of races won by leaders has more than doubled compared to past years. Historically at the Geelong Synthetic track, 56 per cent of races are won by horses settling in the first four. That figure has risen to a staggering 77 per cent since March 2013. Of winners to settle fifth or worse in the run, the vast majority have been fifth or sixth. Just five per cent of winners that settled seventh or further back in the run. Another quirk I’ve noticed at Geelong this year is the fall in times. Races are being run almost two per cent quicker than past years, with the trend evenly spread across all distances. I suspect that the inside of the track is firmer this year, also favouring on-pace runners.

Today’s tips 

Geelong R2 #6 Oceanus (win) 1st ($2.50)

Geelong R5 #5 Zarzing (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Geelong R6 #1 Bombalatomba (win) LOSE (U/P)

Scone R3 #7 Intercites (win) LOSE (U/P)

Scone R4 #2 Totally Wild (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.40)

Scone R6 #3 Bouzy Rouge (win) 1st ($3.20)

Scone R7 #3 Couch Potato (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Scone R8 #9 Henny's Lass (E/W) 1st ($11.30/$3.90)

Narrandera R6 #1 Dragon Rein (win) LOSE (4th)

Alice Springs R1 #3 Purrfect Cocktail (E/W) LOSE (4th)

York R3 #7 Pavlosk (win)

York R4 #6 Shea Shea (E/W 1x2)

Harness racing tip: Melton R4 #10 Narra Operative (win) LOSE (U/P)

Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R2 #5 Wilma Bale (win) LOSE (U/P)

CFL (week 9) for August 23

BC Lions (5-2) @ Montreal Alouettes (2-5), Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC, Friday, August 23, 9.40am

The bad news keeps piling up for the Montreal Alouettes as they try to turn their season around. The Alouettes, who are already missing all-stars such as offensive lineman Scott Flory and slotback Jamel Richardson, will likely be without quarterback Anthony Calvillo when they host the BC Lions. Calvillo underwent further concussion testing on Monday after leaving last week’s 24-21 loss to the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the second quarter and if he is unable to play, Josh Neiswander may start his first CFL game under center. Neiswander did not impress when he replaced Calvillo against the Roughriders, completing 12-of-30 passes and throwing two interceptions, meaning Troy Smith could start. Smith, who signed a two-year deal with the Alouettes last week, won the Heisman Trophy in 2006 and was named an NFL offensive player of the week while playing for the San Francisco 49ers during the 2010 season.

The Lions travel east after a strong two-game homestand that saw them fend off the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Calgary Stampeders. BC won both games despite quarterback Travis Lulay throwing three interceptions against the Stampeders. Lulay has yet to throw for more than 300 yards in a game this year, leaving the Lions to lean on running back Andrew Harris (third in the league with 765 yards from scrimmage) and their defense to give them a chance to win. Linebackers Solomon Elimimian (37 tackles, one interception) and Adam Bighill (31 tackles, two sacks) lead the BC defence. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux is Lulay’s favorite target for big plays, recording 440 yards on 22 catches (20 yards per catch) to go with three touchdowns. Arceneaux had 1972 yards in his first two CFL seasons before leaving in a failed bid to make the NFL.

Suggested bet: Lions -9.5 (3.5 units @ $1.83) LOSE, game total +47.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (38-39)

NFL pre-season (week 3) for August 23

New England Patriots (2-0) @ Detroit Lions (1-1), Ford Field, Detroit, MI, Friday, August 23, 9.30am 

Two of the NFL’s most prolific passers will be on display in Detroit when Tom Brady and the Patriots face off against Matthew Stafford and the Lions in the third preseason game for both teams. With most teams using the third week of the preseason as a dress rehearsal for the regular season, Brady, Stafford and other starters will likely play into the second half. That could mean plenty of offence considering this is a match-up of two of the NFL’s top three teams in yards per game from a year ago. Detroit enters the game with plenty of work to do, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions were blasted by Cleveland in their second preseason game, losing 24-6. Detroit made a couple of moves following the game, signing cornerback Rashean Mathis and linebacker Rocky McIntosh. The Lions’ offence also had some issues, gaining just 217 yards.

The return of Calvin Johnson will be a boost for the passing game, though there are still issues with the rushing attack. Reggie Bush gained 15 yards on eight carries and Detroit averaged just 2.4 yards per carry as a team. After sitting out last week to rest his bruised knee, Johnson is expected to be active. The Patriots have looked typically good in the pre-season so far, even though they’ve without a number of key offensive players from last season. Brady wasn’t bothered by missing weapons in the team’s second pre-season game, completing 11-of-12 for 107 yards and a touchdown. Danny Amendola racked up 71 yards in that game, but his status against Detroit remains up in the air. Amendola missed practice earlier in the week due to an unknown injury. He's already shown good chemistry with Brady, so the Patriots may opt to rest him and ensure he's healthy for the regular season.

Suggested bet: New England +2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +46 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (9-40)

Other tips

Panthers @ Ravens -3 ($1.87) LOSE (34-27)

MLB for August 23

Colorado Rockies (59-69, 23-42 away) @ Philadelphia Phillies (56-70, 32-30 home), Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA, Friday, August 23, 9.10am 

Although Carlos Ruiz has endured his share of adversity this season, he’s hoping his late-game heroics can spark the Philadelphia Phillies to a strong finish. Another date with the Colorado Rockies is likely to help his cause. Ruiz and the Phillies hope to build on their dramatic victory and beat the Rockies for the 19th time in 23 home games last night when they wrap up a four-game series. Trailing by one in the ninth inning, Ruiz delivered a game-tying, pinch-hit RBI double off Rockies closer Rafael Betancourt, and Michael Young followed with a walk-off single to give the Phillies (56-70) a 4-3 victory. The Phillies haven't done well offensively, averaging 2.6 runs while batting .191 over their last 12 games. However, they have outscored the Rockies 126-72 while going 18-4 at home against them since September 13, 2007.

Colorado rookie Chad Bettis (0-2, 5.30 ERA) will have to bounce back after getting tagged for eight runs (though only two earned thanks to an error by Troy Tulowitzki) over 2 2/3 innings in an 8-4 loss at Baltimore on Saturday. The right-hander walked four, giving him 12 over 18 2/3 innings in his four starts. Bettis could have his hands full with Chase Utley, who is hitting .375 in his last 14 games versus the Rockies (59-69). Teammate John Mayberry is batting .367 in his last nine at home against them. The Phillies hope to deal Colorado its fifth loss in six games by giving the ball to right-hander Kyle Kendrick (10-10, 4.36). While Kendrick is 3-6 with a 6.38 ERA over his last nine starts, he showed improvement Saturday when he allowed two runs over six innings in a 5-0 loss to the Dodgers.

Suggested bet: Phillies WIN (2.5 units @ $1.75) WIN, game total +9 (1.5 units @ $1.91) PUSH (5-4)

Other tips

AL: Blue Jays +1.5 $1.67 @ Yankees LOSE (3-5)

AL: Twins +1.5 $2.09 WIN @ Tigers -8 $1.83 LOSE (7-6)

AL: White Sox @ Royals WIN $1.61 LOSE -7.5 $1.86 WIN (4-3)

NL: D'backs @ Reds WIN $1.55 WIN -7.5 $2.00 WIN (1-2)

NL: Dodgers -1.5 $1.69 WIN @ Marlins -6 $2.05 PUSH (6-0)

NL: Nationals @ Cubs WIN $2.40 LOSE +7.5 $1.93 WIN (5-4)

NL: Braves @ Cardinals WIN $1.72 WIN +8.5 $1.83 LOSE (2-6)

NL: Pirates @ Giants -7 $1.81 LOSE (10-5)

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