NRL (round 24) for August 24
North Queensland Cowboys (9-12) v Newcastle Knights
(10-1-10), 1300SMILES Stadium, Townsville, Saturday, August 24, 7.30pm
The battle for finals berths continues with this
clash between the 11th-placed Cowboys at home to the seventh-placed Knights.
The Cowboys are on 22 competition points, from nine wins and 12 losses. They
are two points outside of the top eight, and must win all three of their
remaining games to finish on 28 and give themselves a chance of making the
finals. Their points for-and-against differential of plus-15 – obviously a
bonus for a team with a 9-12 record – could make the difference in a tie with
any other team on 28. The Knights are on 25 points, from 10 wins, 10 losses and
a draw. They are three points behind the sixth-placed team and just one ahead
of eighth and ninth.
Ever since the Cowboys’ board sacked Neil Henry as
coach, effective at the end of the season, the team has been winning. They’ve
knocked over the Rabbitohs (30-12), Panthers (36-4) and Titans (22-10). The
Knights have won four and drawn one of their past seven. In their past three
games they’ve drawn with the Broncos (18-18), beat the Sharks (18-14) and lose
to the Storm (23-10). They should have learned a valuable lesson from the Storm
in how to win these critical games. The Knights led 8-0, and 8-4 at halftime,
but were run down in the second half at home. When the Cowboys and Knights
clashed in Round 3 at Hunter Stadium, the Knights won 36-4. Had that result
been reversed, the Cowboys would be in eighth place and the Knights 10th.
Suggested bet: North Queensland -3.5 (two units @
$1.79) WIN (26-6)
Greyhound racing for August 24
National Sprint and Distance Championships, The
Meadows, Vic
Tomac Bale has drawn outside explosive beginner Paw
Licking, who has the early pace to carve across from box 6 and lead the field
into the first turn. That will give Tomac Bale (box 7) a terrific path into the
race and he has been very strong at the finish in his past two starts. Xylia
Allen (box one) jumped well and settled second before winning her heat and was
then checked a couple of times at vital stages when fourth behind Tomac Bale
last week. She has come up with the rails draw for the third week in a row and
only needs luck in the early stages to be a real threat.
In the National Distance Final (race 6), Destini
Fireball (box 2) will be out to add another Group 1 to his imposing record. He
did that three starts back in the Group 2 Distance Championship at The Meadows
on July 27 before finishing third in his state heat and a disappointing seventh
in the final. If Destini Fireball brings his ‘A’ game to the final he will win.
However, if he doesn’t there are some talented stayers who will be ready to
swoop. NSW representative Smart Valentino (box one) is going into the race
without having a look at the track but is a quality stayer who went 41.96
winning the state final at Wentworth Park.
Tips for tonight
R4 #7 Roy Galo (win) LOSE (U/P)
R5 1,2,4,7 First Four WIN ($114.40)
R6 #2 Destini Fireball (win) LOSE (4th)
R8 #7 Tomac Bale (win) LOSE (2nd)
R11 #6 What A Player (win) LOSE (U/P)
Racing for August 24
Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Warwick Farm
(NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Kembla Grange (NSW),
Gold Coast (Qld), Donald (Vic), Port Macquarie (NSW), Townsville (Qld),
Adelaide River (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Newcastle (NSW), Menangle (NSW),
Albion Park (Qld), Ballarat (Vic), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Richmond (NSW),
The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA).
The racing spotlight shines on Warwick Farm this afternoon
for the running of the $175,000 Group 2 Pro-Ride Warwick Stakes over 1400m and
the $175,000 Coolmore Silver Shadow Stakes over 1200m, along with a pair of
Group 3 races. Joe Pride’s Rain Affair opened at a stupid price in the Warwick
Stakes (race 6) meaning there’s value galore through the field. I’ll be having a small
play on the #10 Centennial Park at the fixed price of $41. My best of the day
at the Farm is race 7, the BM80 JDC Flooring Handicap over 1300m. #9 Windswept
is a lightly raced 4yo stallion having made just four starts for the Arrowfield
group and trainer Gerald Ryan. He made up a stack of run at his run this
preparation while the pace didn’t suit when he was pipped by Fort Sumter over
1200m here 10 days ago. He’s up slightly in distance and class here but
everything looks to suit today.
Suggested bet: Warwick Farm R7 #9 Windswept E/W 1x4 (two units) 1st ($3.80/$1.60)
Other tips
Warwick Farm R1 #1 Travolta (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)
Warwick Farm R3 #1 Royal Descent (win) LOSE (2nd)
Warwick Farm R4 #3 Montsegur (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)
Warwick Farm R6 #10 Centennial Park (place) LOSE (U/P)
Warwick Farm R8 #2 Norzita (E/W) 3rd ($2.40)
Moonee Valley R2 #1 Reuben Percival (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Moonee Valley R3 #1 General Truce (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Moonee Valley R4 #8 Cauthen (win) 1st ($2.40)
Moonee Valley R5 #9 Dartook (place) LOSE (4th)
Moonee Valley R7 #1 Clang And Bang (E/W) 1st ($8.30/$2.50)
Moonee Valley R8 #7 Cavallo Nero (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.60)
Eagle Farm R1 #2 Spot The Rock (win) LOSE (2nd)
Eagle Farm R2 #5 Pure Purrfection (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.50)
Eagle Farm R6 #1 Teronado (win) LOSE (2nd)
Eagle Farm R7 #2 Funtantes (E/W) 2nd ($2.10)
Morphettville R1 #2-3 Boxed exacta 2-3 ($9.30)
Morphettville R4 #4 Katunga (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Morphettville R5 #4 Exalted Filly (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville R6 #12 Maelstrom (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($3.10)
Morphettville R8 #8 Golden Penny (E/W) 1st ($10.60/$2.90)
Belmont R2 #3 Thateldo (win) LOSE (3rd)
Belmont R6 #2 Hans Up (win) LOSE (3rd)
York R1 #6 Sirius Prospect (win) 1st ($3.50)
York R5 #1 Hot Streak (E/W 1x4) 1st ($4.00/$1.75)
Harness racing tip: Menangle R4 #5 Magical Telf (win) LOSE (3rd)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R2 #4 Suits Us (win) LOSE (3rd)
AFL (round 22) for August 24
Adelaide
(8-12) v Melbourne (2-18), AAMI Stadium, Saturday, August 24, 1.45pm AEST
22 years have passed since that historic night at
Football Park when Adelaide upset Hawthorn to win its first ever AFL match (pictured above). The
Crows are virtually certainties to bookend their time at the home of footy in
SA as they host Melbourne in the club’s last game at AAMI Stadium. The Crows
have been rarely troubled in recent visits from the Demons. Their record reads
12-3 all-time, with Melbourne’s last triumph coming back in round 2, 2011, when
Andrew Leoncelli goaled after the final siren! Melbourne’s consistently
abhorrent form continued against Freo last week while the Crows lost a shootout
to the upstart Bulldogs. The Demons have been a cash cow for punters all year
and the obvious play here is the game total ‘under’. Their unprecedented low
inside 50 counts have led to reliably low scores and with Adelaide averaging
just 91 points per game, the 181.5-point expectation looks way too high.
Suggested bet: Game total -181.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (120-52)
Nth
Melbourne (9-11) v Hawthorn (17-3), Etihad Stadium, Saturday, August 24, 2.10pm
AEST
This is the first time in four years that these two
sides have met twice in a home and away season, and at Etihad Stadium. The
Hawks have won five of the past six but that record is skewed with four of
those games in Launceston. Last time out in round 5, Hawthorn fell over the
line by three points at the MCG; continuing a trend of narrow losses that has
haunted Brad Scott and his Roos all year. North play their best footy at
Etihad, but the Hawks have won 10 in a row at this venue and are coming off
arguably their best performance of the season in last week’s 29-point win over
Collingwood. Brent Guerra is a key inclusion while Alastair Clarkson looks to
have the Hawks peaking at the right time after some ‘iffy’ form since the
mid-season break, and they’re not about to slip up in this one.
Suggested bet: Hawthorn 1-39 (one unit @ $2.15) WIN, game
total +199.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (103-117)
Geelong
(16-4) v Sydney (15-1-4), Simonds Stadium, Saturday, August 24, 4.40pm AEST
Geelong saluted as my best of the week in round 21,
and I’m sticking with the Cats as they host the Swans for a Saturday twilight
special at Kardinia Park. John Longmire’s side are no strangers to this venue –
they’re generally scheduled to play in Geelong each year and, in 2012, famously
ended the Cats’ amazing run of 29 straight wins at home. However, Sydney’s key
stats have headed south in the past three weeks – an alarming development given
the other top four sides are trending in the opposite direction. That includes
Geelong, who were clinical in their demolition of the Eagles last week. Paul
Chapman makes his long-awaited return for Geelong with Tom Hawkins also back in
the side while Sydney regain Tom Mitchell for Jude Bolton. The Cats’ stunning
21-point win at the SCG back in round 4 remains one of the best performances by
any side this season, and I’m expecting a similar result here. The game total
line also looks very appealing here as wet weather doesn’t appear to stop the
Cats’ scoring at Simonds Stadium.
Suggested bet: Geelong -14.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN,
game total +180.5 (two units @ $1.90) LOSE (92-48)
Carlton
(10-10) v Essendon (13-7), MCG, Saturday, August 24, 7.40pm AEST
This is one of the most fascinating match-ups I can
remember with the myriad storylines in play. With Essendon’s spot in the finals
still uncertain, Carlton looms as the big winner even if it is unable to tip
Port Adelaide out of the top eight. Despite continuing my policy of not betting
games in which the Bombers are involved, I’m happy to recommend the Blues here.
With a coach more concerned by his personal reputation than that of his players
or club, does anyone really expect Essendon to return to the form it showed
over the first 17 rounds of the season? They’ve lost the past four by a minimum
45 points and have conceded 127 points per game in that period. Matthew Kreuzer
returns for the Blues, who deserved the points over a lacklustre Richmond last week.
The Bombers won the equivalent fixture by five points in round 11 but I fully
expect they’ll be played off the park here with the 20.5-point line a gift from
the bookies.
Suggested bet: None
Fremantle
(15-1-4) v Port Adelaide (12-8), Patersons Stadium, Saturday, August 24, 7.40pm
AEST
Two of the season’s biggest improvers will go
heads-up in a high stakes battle under lights in Perth with finals implications
for both. Freo are still firmly in the hunt for a top two position while Port
can cement their spot in the eight with victory here. Percentage is equally
important for both sides. The Power have won four of their past five (with the
loss coming at Geelong) but have struggled against the Dockers, who are on a
five-game winning streak over Port stretching back to 2009. Aaron Sandilands
and Hayden Ballantyne both miss here, with the latter’s omission particularly
telling as he is a litmus for the Dockers. Port will travel without Hamish
Hartlett, who was perhaps lucky to only cop a two-week suspension for his hit
on Seb Tape last week. Freo should win this but the line looks ridiculously
high against a Power outfit who’ve barely put in a bad performance all season.
Suggested bet: Port Adelaide +35.5 (two units @
$1.91) LOSE (134-60)
CFL (week 9) for August 24
Calgary Stampeders (5-2) @ Toronto Argonauts (5-2),
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Saturday, August 24, 9.30am
A nagging knee injury has not stopped Toronto
Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray from running the most efficient offense in the
CFL. Ray, who has completed 143-of-183 passes for 14 touchdowns and no
interceptions, will try to lead the Argonauts to their fifth straight victory
when they host the Calgary Stampeders. Ray’s record-pace completion rate is a
large part of Toronto’s recent dominance, but the defense has done its share as
well, limiting opponents to five TDs in the last four games. Slotback
Chad Owens remains a favorite target for Ray with 572 receiving yards as part
of a league-leading 1395 total combined yards for last year’s Most Outstanding
Player. Running back Curtis Steele is a little banged up after filling in for
the injured Chad Kackert as he was limited to 27 yards on five carries last week.
First-year linebacker Shane Horton has a team-leading three sacks to go with
three fumble recoveries, while linebacker Robert McCune leads the team with 43
tackles.
Calgary slotback Nik Lewis, who leads the team in
receiving yards with 400, will miss at least six weeks after suffering a
fractured fibula in last week’s 26-22 loss to the BC Lions. Lewis has been a
stalwart of the Stampeders’ offense, recording at least 1,000 receiving yards
in every season since joining the team in 2004, but Calgary has adjusted to big
injuries successfully. The best way to shut down the Stampeders seems to be
through running back Jon Cornish, who was limited to a combined 115 rushing
yards in Calgary’s two losses. Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn has been a solid
replacement for injured starter Drew Tate and will look to slotbacks Marquay
McDaniel and Jabari Arthur to fill Lewis’ void. Calgary’s defense recorded
three interceptions against BC, including one by defensive lineman Charleston
Hughes, who also leads the team in sacks with five. Cornish is second in the
league with 916 yards from scrimmage.
Suggested bet: Toronto -3.5 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE, game
total +57 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (35-14)
NFL pre-season (week 3) for August 24
Seattle Seahawks (2-0) @ Green Bay Packers (1-1), Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI, Saturday,
August 24, 10am
Heading into the third round of pre-season games, it’s
time for teams to be finalising depth charts and position battles. The Green
Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks will have the chance to shore up those areas
in a rematch of the infamous “Fail Mary” game from last year’s regular season
that in many ways set the tone for both teams’ regular seasons. For a second
straight year, the Seahawks have looked great in the preseason. Last year’s 4-0
campaign introduced us to the exploits of QB Russell Wilson, and so far they
are 2-0 in 2013, making it six consecutive double digit wins in the preseason
under head coach Pete Carroll. That’s a big reason why they are favored here on
the road. After humiliating Denver last week, 40-10, the Seahawks have now
outscored their two pre-season opponents this year 71-20. Running back Marshawn
Lynch has been limited in the preseason thus far, but he may see his carries
increase as the season nears. On the other side of the ball, new defensive
coordinator Dan Quinn will be breaking in his new system.
Green Bay is 1-1 in the pre-season, having responded
from a 17-0 shutout loss to Arizona with a 19-7 win last
week at St. Louis. The coaching staff has not made a decision on how much time
the starters will play here, but it figures to be longer than the first two
games combined. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' aerial attack have laid waste
to NFL secondaries for the past several seasons, but they'll face a new
challenge in 2013 after the departure of No. 1 wideout Greg Jennings. On top of
that, Jordy Nelson is recovering from knee surgery and could miss the
regular season opener. The movement at the top of the depth chart could open
the door for a big season from Randall Cobb, who was sensational in 2012.
Defensively, coordinator Dom Capers will be looking to cut back on the 118
yards per game his guys allowed on the ground. The departure of the
Charles Woodson doesn't help, but stars like linebacker Clay
Matthews and nose tackle B.J. Raji, as well as the reemergence of
defensive tackle Johnny Jolly, are working in the Packers' favour.
Suggested bet: Seahawks -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN, game
total +43 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (17-10)
Other tips
Bears @ Raiders +4 LOSE +38.5 WIN (34-26)
Arizona Diamondbacks (65-61, 29-35 away) @ Philadelphia Phillies (57-70, 33-30 home), Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA, Saturday, August 24, 9.10am
After missing out on a prime opportunity to improve their post-season chances, the Arizona Diamondbacks won’t have any time to feel sorry for themselves as they prepare to face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Cole Hamels takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies, who look to deal fading Arizona a third straight defeat here. Hamels (5-13, 3.61 ERA) has been stellar over his last four starts, pitching at least seven innings in each while going 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA. He has improved his overall ERA nearly one full run since the beginning of July while giving up fewer than three runs in eight of nine outings during that stretch. The left-hander gave up two runs and walked five in six innings of a 2-1 loss to Arizona on May 9 – the opener of a four-game set these clubs wound up splitting.
Wade Miley didn’t face Philadelphia in that series, but he struck out seven and allowed two hits in six scoreless innings to beat the Phillies on April 23, 2012, in his only start against them. Miley (9-8, 3.56), like Hamels, began his current hot stretch in July. He is 5-1 with a 2.04 ERA over his last nine starts after allowing two runs and striking out eight in eight innings of Sunday’s 4-2, 16-inning win over Pittsburgh. The left-hander looks to stay hot against a Philadelphia team that has won four of five after a dramatic 5-4 win over Colorado on Thursday. The Phillies saluted for us yesterday against the Rockies and I’m comfortable that they’ll get the job again here. With Hamels going 5-0 ‘under’ in his past five starts and Miley’s last seven starts going 5-1-1 ‘under, we’ll also add that to the card.
Suggested bet: Phillies WIN (two units @ $1.88) WIN, game total -7.5 (two units @ $2.00) WIN (3-4)
Other tips
IL: Tigers @ Mets -8 $1.88 WIN (6-1)
IL: Nationals WIN $1.96 WIN @ Royals -7.5 $1.91 LOSE (11-10)
IL: Red Sox @ Dodgers WIN $1.93 WIN (0-2)
AL: Athletics @ Orioles WIN $1.85 WIN +9 $2.06 WIN (7-9)
AL: Yankees WIN $2.02 LOSE @ Rays -7 $1.88 LOSE (2-7)
AL: Rangers WIN $2.12 @ White Sox WIN (11-5)
AL: Blue Jays WIN $1.70 LOSE @ Astros +9 $1.99 WIN (4-12)
AL: Angels @ Mariners WIN $1.58 LOSE (2-0)
NL: Brewers @ Reds +8.5 $2.02 WIN (6-4)
NL: Rockies @ Marlins -7.5 $1.87 WIN (3-2)
NL: Braves @ Cardinals -1.5 $2.44 WIN +7 $1.80 LOSE (1-3)
NL: Cubs @ Padres WIN $1.81 WIN (6-8)
NL: Pirates @ Giants -6.5 $1.95 WIN (3-1)
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