Daily tips for August 25

Racing for August 25

Horse racing: Swan Hill (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Kalgoorlie (WA), Wangaratta (Vic), Nowra (NSW), Hobart (Tas). Harness racing: Launceston (Tas), Shepparton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Gawler (SA), Healesville (Vic), Mt Gambier (SA), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic).

Four scratchings have left just a field of seven for the Wycheproof Races 2 NOV Maiden Plate (race 4) over 1600m at Swan Hill today, where the eight-race card will be run on a dead (4) under sunny skies by the mighty Murray River. #10 Justiceforall is making his third start for John and Chris Ledger (Wangaratta) having placed third in his previous two jumps. Jake Noonan struggled to contain the 3yo gelding here on August 12 but despite over-racing, he still had enough gas in the tank to charge home. James Winks takes the ride today and should salute on this Blueblood Thoroughbreds’ charge with plenty of upside.

Suggested bet: Swan Hill R4 #10 Justiceforall (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($2.20)

Other tips

Gosford R1 #4 Encostanati (win) 1st ($1.80)

Gosford R4 #13 Pecheur (win) LOSE (U/P)

Gosford R7 #5 Firelighter (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.10/$1.40)

Swan R7 #1 Override (E/W) 1st ($3.30/$1.50)

Swan Hill R8 #3 Berkshire (win) LOSE (2nd)

Sunshine Coast R2 #2 Altai Warrior (E/W) 3rd ($1.70)

Sunshine Coast R4 #4 Denmark Hill (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Sunshine Coast R8 #2 Brother Love (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)

Nowra R3 #3 Caldane (win) LOSE (3rd)

Wangaratta R4 #1 Glow Torch (win) LOSE (2nd)

Wangaratta R5 #3 Blazing Gilbert (E/W) 1st ($6.50/$2.60)

Hobart R7 #4 Spy Wears Prado (E/W 1x2) 1st ($2.30/$1.50)

AFL (round 22) for August 25

St Kilda (3-17) v Gold Coast (7-13), Etihad Stadium, Sunday, August 25, 1.10pm AEST

There’ll be plenty of fans dressed as empty seats for this one but it looks to be the genuine coin-flip of the round. The Saints were surprisingly robust early before being blown away by the Swans last week, while Gold Coast pushed the Power to the wire in Adelaide. The Suns kicked-off their memorable 2013 campaign with a round one upset over St Kilda at Carrara, and I’m expecting they’ll make it a season double over the Saints here. Scott Watters has thrown forward the worrying “go with the kids” message (underlined by the inclusion of Cameron Shenton, Tom Ledger and Brodie Murdoch) while Gold Coast still have their foot to the floor with experienced duo Jared Brennan and Michael Rischitelli set to fly south as part of the squad. After failing at their previous five attempts, Gold Coast should celebrate the 50th games of future stars Harley Bennell and Dion Prestia with their first ever victory at Etihad Stadium.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast WIN (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE, game total -186.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (116-70)

Greater Western Sydney (1-19) v Richmond (13-7), Skoda Stadium, Sunday, August 25, 3.20pm AEST

Here’s a tip from left field – Jack Riewoldt is just four goals behind Jarryd Roughead, Josh Kennedy and Jeremy Cameron in the race for the Coleman Medal. The Tigers face the Giants here and Essendon next week. He has to be rated some chance of overtaking that trio and Travis Cloke to pinch the badge. Better still, he’s rated at $11 to do so. I’m expecting the Tiger spearhead and his teammates to bounce back here after a timely wake-up call against the Blues last week. Richmond’s second quarter performance was one of their worst in several weeks, providing Damien Hardwick with the ammo to demand a better showing just two games short of their first finals appearance in 12 years. The Giants went close to an unlikely upset in the only previous meeting between these sides with the Tigers hanging on for a two-goal win. Throw in Kevin Sheedy’s final home game as coach and I’m favouring the GWS to cover the 10-goal-plus line.

Suggested bet: GWS +62.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (42-163)

Brisbane Lions (9-11) v Footscray (7-13), Gabba, Sunday, August 25, 4.40pm AEST

I think I’ll cede the remote to Mrs C rather than take in this tricky end to the round as the Lions and ’Scrays wind down for season 2013. Not surprisingly, both teams have picked up some cheap wins in recent weeks. Brisbane have won five of seven but four of those victories have been over the Giants, St Kilda, Melbourne and Gold Coast. The Bulldogs’ revised game plan has helped deliver them solid wins over Carlton and Adelaide but defence has gone out the window as part of their recent run. They’ve also played their last four under the roof at Etihad so this new aggressive attacking game style is yet to be tested on a bigger ground like the Gabba. Add in the presence of a caretaker coach in the Lions’ box and the absence of Brent Moloney and Simon Black from the midfield, which together make the line a no play but I suggest a play on the game total ‘over’.

Suggested bet: Game total +190.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (100-93)

 

NFL pre-season (week 3) for August 25

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2), Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA, Sunday, August 25, 9.30am

Neither the Pittsburgh Steelers nor Kansas City Chiefs have picked up a pre-season win heading into the third week of the NFL pre-season. For both teams, the goal is to look as sharp as possible without anybody getting injured. Kansas City might sit superstar running back Jamaal Charles who is coming back from a strained foot, more as a precaution than anything else. Pittsburgh is already without its likely starting running back in Le’Veon Bell. Kansas City is a different team than the one that went 2-14 last season. Owner Clark Hunt went out and hired Andy Reid as head coach and John Dorsey as GM to change the culture of this franchise. Reid has installed his west coast system on offence, while new defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has put in a more aggressive defence. With Alex Smith now at the helm, many believe the Chiefs could make a playoff run in the wide-open AFC.

Smith isn’t a great player, but he’s smart and accurate, making him the prefect fit for Reid’s offence. The biggest question mark is at wide receiver, where Dwayne Bowe is the only real playmaker. Donnie Avery could emerge to become Kansas City’s second option along with Dexter McCluster in the slot, but these things need to be proven. The Steelers are looking to rebound from a rarity; missing the playoffs. Coach Mike Tomlin doesn't have much to work with on offense outside of QB Ben Roethlisberger, with Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall now with the Dolphins and Cardinals respectively. Bell and Jonathan Dwyer are expected to replace Mendenhall and Emmanuel Sanders is being looked upon to step up in Wallace’s absence. Defensively, Pittsburgh is very old but has an infusion of youth with first round pick Jarvis Jones playing as an outside linebacker opposite LaMarr Woodley.

Suggested bet: Chiefs +3 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN, game total -40 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (26-20)

Other tips

Bills @ Redskins +1 WIN (7-30)

Jets +2 WIN @ Giants -39 LOSE (24-21)

Browns +2.5 LOSE @ Colts +43.5 LOSE (6-27)

Bucs @ Dolphins -3 LOSE (17-16)

Eagles -3.5 @ Jaguars WIN (31-24)

Falcons +3 @ Titans LOSE (16-27)

Bengals +2.5 @ Cowboys LOSE (18-24)

Chargers @ Cardinals -40.5 WIN (24-7)

MLB for August 25

Colorado Rockies (60-70, 24-43 away) @ Miami Marlins (48-79, 28-38 home), Marlins Park, Miami, FL, Sunday, August 25, 9.10am

More than 130 games into the season, this is the first time I’ve made the Marlins my bet of the day. NL rookie of the year candidate Jose Fernandez hasn’t disappointed the home fans when he’s pitched at Marlins Park but they could be seeing him for one of the final times this season as the Miami Marlins try to avoid their fifth straight loss against the Colorado Rockies. The league-worst Marlins (48-79), who rank last in the majors in runs and batting average, could get little done at the plate in yesterday’s 3-2 series-opening loss. While the Marlins have scored seven runs and gone 2 for 26 with runners in scoring position during their losing streak, they likely won’t need much offense to end it with Fernandez (9-5, 2.41 ERA) on the mound. The All-Star right-hander has gone 7-2 with 105 strikeouts over 93 1/3 innings since June 1. His 1.64 ERA over that 14-start stretch is second in the majors to Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw (1.62).

Fernandez looks to win his fifth straight decision after fanning eight and allowing one earned run over six innings in a 6-2 victory over the NL West-leading Dodgers on Monday. Fernandez leads all rookies with at least 15 starts in ERA, opponents’ batting average (.189) and strikeouts (157). He’s been particularly tough at Marlins Park, where he’s 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA in 12 starts. Because Miami plans to limit Fernandez to around 170 innings, this might be one of his last home starts. He’s currently at 145 2/3 innings after throwing a season-high 109 pitches against the Dodgers. The Rockies will attempt to win consecutive road games for the first time since June 22-23 by giving the ball to Jeff Manship (0-3, 7.80), who seeks his first victory since September 6, 2010, with Minnesota. After allowing two runs over five innings in a 2-1 loss at Citi Field on August 8, Manship has given up 11 runs and 14 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts.

Suggested bet: Miami WIN (1.5 units @ $1.56) WIN, game total -7 (2.5 units @ $1.87)
(WIN 0-3)

Other tips

IL: Tigers WIN $1.76 WIN @ Mets -6 $1.77 WIN (3-0)
IL: Nationals WIN $1.94 WIN @ Royals +7.5 WIN (7-2)

AL: Athletics @ Orioles WIN $1.85 LOSE -8.5 $1.95 WIN (2-1)
AL: Twins @ Indians WIN $1.57 WIN +8.5 $1.91 WIN (2-7)
AL: Rangers @ White Sox -7 $2.01 WIN (2-3)
AL: Blue Jays @ Astros WIN $2.00 WIN +9.5 $2.12 WIN (5-8)
AL: Yankees WIN $2.60 @ Rays LOSE (2-4)
AL: Angels WIN $2.11 @ Mariners WIN (5-1)

NL: Brewers @ Reds WIN $1.50 WIN (3-6)

NL: Braves @ Cardinals WIN $1.75 WIN -7.5 $1.85 LOSE (2-6)
NL: Cubs WIN $2.19 @ Padres WIN (3-2)
NL: Pirates WIN $1.69 LOSE @ Giants -6.5 LOSE (3-6)

EPL for August 24-25

Stoke City v Crystal Palace, Britannia Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, UK, Sunday, August 25, midnight

Stoke and Crystal Palace are still looking for their first points, and indeed goals, of the new season yet but both were a little unlucky last weekend. But for Jonathan Walters’s penalty miss, the Potters would have picked up a useful point at Liverpool. That was his third miss from his last five spot-kicks. Stoke goalkeeper Asmir Begovic was the man of the match at Anfield with the Bosnian expected to garner considerable transfer interest before the window closes. This fixture is Mark Hughes’ (pictured) first home game as Stoke manager since replacing Tony Pulis. Hughes knows he needs to add goals to his team – only QPR (30) scored fewer than the Potters (34) last season.  The same argument can be made for newly-promoted Palace, who have lost 31-goal top scorer Glenn Murray to injury for the opening few months of the season along with the precocious talents of Wilfried Zaha.

Record signing Dwight Gayle has been bought in to help plug the gap and has had a rapid rise from the non-league scene, Marouane Chamakh is not yet match-fit, Aaron Wilbraham has never been a prolific scorer, while Kevin Phillips, now aged 40, is a likely super sub this season. It’s a lack of Premier League experience that is most concerning about the Eagles. Danny Gabbidon aside, their starting line-up last weekend had less than 50 appearances at this level between them. The two sides have met 12 times in English football’s top division but never in the Premier League. Excluding the Play-Offs, Palace won only six of 23 away Championship matches last season, losing 10 times. The Eagles have won only one of their last 11 EPL matches, a run of results that date back to their last top-flight campaign of 2004-05. Ian Holloway's side has scored just five goals in their last 13 matches.

Suggested bet: Stoke City WIN (three units @ $1.80) WIN, Stoke City 1-0 (one unit @ $5.00) LOSE (2-1)

Other tips

Fulham v Arsenal WIN $1.80 WIN (1-3)

Everton 2+ $2.40 v WBA LOSE (0-0)

Hull City v Norwich City +0.5 $1.61 LOSE (1-0)

Newcastle v West Ham -2.5 $1.85 WIN (0-0)

Southampton WIN $1.61 v Sunderland LOSE (1-1)

Aston Villa +0.5 $1.98 v Liverpool LOSE (0-1)

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