Daily tips for August 18

EPL for August 18

Chelsea v Hull City, Stamford Bridge, London, UK, Sunday, August 19, 1am

It’s a special day as Stamford Bridge welcomes the ‘Special One’ home. A month short of six years after leaving, Jose Mourinho (pictured) is back in the home dugout of the club that he’s loved (and been loved by) the most. In pre-season it’s been almost as though he never left. Whilst we all get used to seeing Messrs Moyes and Pellegrini sport their new crests, Mourinho just looks right. The reception that greets his arrival on the touchline will be one of the must-see moments of the weekend. He’s inherited a frighteningly strong squad and could have the luxury of making five or six changes without weakening the team for Wednesday’s re-arranged visit of Aston Villa. New signings Schurrle and van Ginkel and returning loan stars Lukaku and De Bruyne only increase the attacking threat of a team that scored a club record 147 goals last season. Torres, Ba, Lampard, Mata, Moses - maybe Rooney to come? Breaking 147 may be possible after all.

For Hull it’s an exciting start to their second top-flight adventure, but not a game Steve Bruce will be just glad to get out of the way. After all, he led Sunderland to a 3-0 win the last time he visited the Bridge as a boss. Without necessarily ‘parking the bus’, it’ll be a side that doesn’t take too many risks in game one – with the top level nous of Tom Huddlestone in front of the defence an important addition this week. They didn’t score too many goals in the Championship last season but were tight defensively – often playing three at the back with wing backs. It’s a system that didn’t work in the Premier League for Manchester City last season. Could it for Hull? The Tigers have never won a competitive game at Chelsea in 19 attempts (D5, L14) while Chelsea are unbeaten in the four Premier League meetings between the sides (W2, D2). Hull last won a competitive fixture against Chelsea in October 1988 (3-0 at home).

Suggested bet: Chelsea 3+ goals (two units @ $1.99), Teams to score – Chelsea (two units @ $1.90)

Other tips

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur WIN ($1.69)

Racing for August 18

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic), Taree (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Kalgoorlie (WA), Pakenham (Vic), Narromine (NSW), Devonport (Tas). Harness racing: Melton (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Hobart (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Gawler (SA), Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT).

It was a typically tricky meeting at Caulfield yesterday as the stars of the winter went head-to-head against several spring contenders making an early start to their campaign. The most intriguing runner, by far, was Puissance de Lune (pictured). Ridden quietly at the rear of the field by Glen Boss, the Darren Weir-trained 6yo was still last at the 400-metre mark but showed why he is fancied by so many to win this year’s Melbourne Cup with a sensational last-to-first victory in the $220,000 Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m). He has now raced 14 times for eight wins, three placings and $614,495.

A quick look at the futures’ market shows the grey, who looms as the peoples’ favourite of the spring, as a $5.50 favourite for the Cox Plate and at the head of Melbourne Cup betting as a $5 pick but October 26 and November are a fair way into the distance for a horse that started his campaign on August 18.  Should Puissance de Lune win this year’s Melbourne Cup he will be the first horse to contest the Lawrence Stakes (formerly known as the Liston Stakes) and win Australia’s premier 3200-metre race since another grey galloper in Subzero (1992). No horse has completed the Liston/Lawrence-Melbourne Cup double. I’d rate Puissance de Lune at a higher price to even start in the Cup than his $5 favouritism!

Tips for today

Seymour R2 #15 Vincent’s Thirst (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Seymour R5 #4 Up The Creek (win) 1st ($2.20)

Pakenham R1 #1 Arch Fire (win) 1st ($1.40)

Pakenham R2 #2 Downes (win) 1st ($2.90)

Pakenham R5 #1 Sort This Out (E/W 1x4) 1st ($5.00/$1.60)

Taree R6 #1 Admiral Ruff (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Taree R7 #3 Single Spirit (E/W 1x4) LOSE (U/P)

Narromine R7 #1 Mossamine (win) 1st ($2.30)

Sunshine Coast R2 #4 Who Will (win) 1st ($1.40)

Sunshine Coast R3 #3 Danehill Native (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Devonport R3 #10 Sheza Fatty Boomba (win) LOSE (U/P)

AFL (round 21) for August 18

Melbourne (2-17) v Fremantle (14-1-4), MCG, Sunday, August 18, 1.10pm AEST

There’ll be more Mt Buller gags and opposition scouts than Melbourne goals at the MCG on Sunday as the Dockers inflict more misery on the Demons. Despite the space between these two sides on the ladder, Freo is not without motivation here. A top two finish and home advantage for the finals is still firmly within reach of Ross Lyon’s side, with percentage likely to play an equally important role. Just two years ago, the Dees smashed Fremantle by 89 points at the MCG, but the score here is more likely to mirror the Dockers’ 130-40 victory over Melbourne back in round 9. Neil Craig has shuffled the deck chairs once again but will at least regain the services of the high-flying Jeremy Howe (memo Neil: play the bloke forward and just leave him there). In this mismatch of the league’s best defence and worst attack, the line looks well within reach for the Dockers, who could boot the game total on their own.

Suggested bets: Fremantle -66.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN, game total +169.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (38-133)

Sydney (14-1-4) v St Kilda (3-16), SCG, Sunday, August 18, 3.20pm AEST

There’s more than meets the eye about this seemingly one-sided clash at the SCG. With clashes against Geelong and Hawthorn to end the home and away season (both big winners already this round), it could be argued that Sydney’s ‘finals’ campaign actually starts next week. So do the Swans manage their resources and take the easy points here or make the most of the opportunity to run up a big score to consolidate their percentage? I’m leaning to the latter – St Kilda put in a shocking display last week and only Hawthorn’s inaccuracy stopped a complete blowout. John Longmire will be expecting a response after last week’s shock loss to Collingwood and it won’t take their very best to put the Saints to the sword despite this fixture being generally tight and low scoring in recent years. The line appeals, but the ‘over’ game total is worthy of a big swing.

Suggested bets: Swans -60.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +176.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (118-59)

Footscray (6-13) v Adelaide (8-11), Etihad Stadium, Sunday, August 18, 4.40pm AEST

Having been saddled with a hopeless game plan for much of 2013, Brendan McCartney has finally given his young charges a looser rein in recent weeks, with immediate impact. Suddenly the Bulldogs are enjoying their footy, with wins over West Coast and Carlton and solid showings against Hawthorn and Sydney under their belts. This is another tough test for the Dogs with Adelaide coming off a gritty win over North and, despite their 8-11 record and just two wins in their past six outings, they’re commitment can rarely be questioned. This has generally been a ‘horses for courses’ fixture with the home side dominant in recent years. The strength and experience of the Adelaide midfield should at least keep this contest close and I expect the recent trend of low scoring battles between these teams to continue here.

Suggested bet: Game total -192.5 (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (131-114)

CFL (week 8) for August 18

Calgary Stampeders (5-1) @ B.C. Lions (4-2), BC Place, Vancouver, BC, Sunday, August 18, 11.05am

The BC Lions might have a little revenge in mind when they host the Calgary Stampeders, who defeated them at BC Place in last year’s West Division final and again in Calgary in Week 1. The Lions are 3-0 at home this year, but if any team can ruin that record, it’s the red-hot Stampeders. Calgary has won four in a row and knocked off the division-leading Saskatchewan Roughriders 42-27 last week on the strength of four rushing touchdowns from running back Jon Cornish. He ran for 172 yards against the Lions in Week 1, has seven rushing touchdowns, on pace to eclipse the career-high of 11 he set last year. Glenn has completed 65-of-90 passes filling in for starter Drew Tate, who suffered a setback in his recovery from an elbow injury. Veteran slotback Nik Lewis leads Calgary’s receiving corps with 381 yards on 31 catches. Offensive lineman Dimitri Tsoumpas suffered a concussion last week, joining Tate on the injured list.

The Lions, who are coming off a bye week, have scored only 143 points and quarterback Travis Lulay has yet to throw for more than 300 yards in a game, leaving extra pressure on running back Andrew Harris, who was limited to 56 rushing yards in BC’s last contest. Calgary’s defense limited Harris to 20 yards on five carries in Week 1 and will try to do the same Saturday, with defensive lineman Charleston Hughes (five sacks) leading the charge. Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn is likely to start for the Stampeders. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux is embracing his return to the CFL following a two-year absence, averaging 20.2 yards per catch and leading BC with 384 receiving yards. Slotbacks Nick Moore (357) and Courtney Taylor (235) are also key contributors to the receiving corps.  Linebacker Solomon Elimimian leads the team with 29 tackles as the Lions’ defense has surrendered more than 21 points in only two games – both losses.

Suggested bet: Calgary +3.5 (3.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -52.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91 WIN (22-26)

Other tips

Montreal +12.5 WIN @ Saskatchewan -54.5 WIN (21-24)

NFL pre-season (week 2) for August 18

Tennessee Titans (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-0), Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Sunday, August 18, 9.10am

Cincinnati looked good in its first game, beating the Atlanta Falcons handily, 34-10. The biggest storyline for the Bengals right now: getting wide receiver A.J. Green back in game situations. Green bruised his knee more than two weeks ago and has recently returned to practice. Green had more than 1000 yards receiving last year, and if the Bengals are hoping to snap their streak of not having won a playoff game, they’ll need Green healthy and productive. Other than that, the Bengals don't have too many concerns. They’re looking for Andy Dalton to continue his progression and they need rookie tight end Tyler Eifert to progress quickly given the lack of options at the position.

The Titans struggled last week and eventually lost a close one to the Washington Redskins, 22-21. It’s all about the quarterback. Jake Locker hasn't looked all that good thus far, and each week, Titans fans and the team will be looking for Locker to turn things around. He did complete 7 of 11 passes last week despite getting sacked twice, but he did not have any touchdowns. Fortunately, the team likes what it sees in rookie receiver Justin Hunter, so keep an eye on him. I’m also looking for signs of improve on defence. NFL bettors will have a hard time backing the Titans if they don’t improve on the defensive end, as they allowed a franchise-record 471 points a season ago. They were effective getting after opposing QBs last year collecting 39 sacks but 14 of those came in two games against the Jags.

Suggested bet: Bengals -2.5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN, game total -41 (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (19-27)

Other tips

Cowboys @ Cardinals -41 $1.95 WIN (7-12)

Jaguars @ Jets -38.5 $1.95 LOSE (13-37)

Packers @ Rams -40.5 $1.91 WIN (19-7)

Dolphins @ Texans -3 $1.95 WIN (17-24)

Broncos @ Seahawks -5 $1.91 WIN (10-40)

MLB for August 18

Los Angeles Dodgers (71-50, 34-25 away) @ Philadelphia Phillies (53-68, 29-28 home), Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA, Sunday, August 18, 9.05am

Sending Clayton Kershaw to the mound should improve the Los Angeles Dodgers’ chances at becoming the third team in a century years to win 42 of 50 games. The ace, however, is still seeking his first victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. Kershaw looks to continue his amazing stretch by capitalising on the free-falling Phillies in order to help the Dodgers join some elite company. Los Angeles (71-50) has won 41 of 49 games, and a victory Saturday would put the team alongside the 1941 New York Yankees and the 1942 Cardinals as the only teams to enjoy a 42-8 stretch in 100 years. Both of those teams went on to win the World Series. The pitching staff has a 2.50 ERA over the last 49 games, and Kershaw (11-7, 1.88 ERA) – baseball’s leader in ERA and WHIP (0.87) – has been a big part of that dominance.

The 2011 NL Cy Young Award winner is 6-2 with a 1.57 ERA in nine starts, but he’s 0-5 with a 4.92 ERA in 12 games (nine starts) against the Phillies, including the postseason. While the Dodgers have surged to the top of the NL West, the Phillies have lost 20 of 24 and are practically out of postseason contention. That led to manager Charlie Manuel’s dismissal on Friday, and the club followed that up hours later by mustering three hits. Interim manager Ryne Sandberg is expected to turn to Kyle Kendrick (10-9, 4.48), who has an 8.63 ERA while dropping three of his last five starts. Frustration is growing for Kendrick, who was roughed up again in Sunday’s 6-0 loss at Washington. He surrendered six runs and 11 hits before being chased with one out in the fifth. Facing the Dodgers may not bode well for Kendrick since he’s 1/3 with an 8.10 ERA over his last four starts against them.

Suggested bet: Dodgers -1.5 (3.5 units @ $1.80) WIN, game total -7 (1.5 units @ $2.05) WIN (5-0)

Other tips

IL: Rockies WIN $2.75 @ Orioles LOSE (4-8)

AL: Yankees WIN $2.10 LOSE @ Red Sox -8.5 $1.83 WIN (1-6)

AL: Royals @ Tigers WIN $1.54 WIN (5-6)

AL: White Sox @ Twins +7 $1.94 WIN (8-5)

AL: Blue Jays @ Rays +8.5 $1.88 LOSE (6-2)

AL: Mariners @ Rangers +8 $1.98 WIN (3-15)

AL: Astros +1.5 $1.84 @ Angels WIN (5-6)

NL: Diamondbacks WIN $2.35 WIN @ Pirates +7.5 $2.05 WIN (15-5)

NL: Cardinals @ Cubs WIN $2.10 LOSE (4-0)

NL: Giants @ Marlins WIN $2.26 LOSE (6-4)

NL: Reds WIN $1.64 WIN @ Brewers -8 $2.02 PUSH (7-1)

NL: Nationals @ Braves WIN $1.85 LOSE (8-7)

NL: Mets WIN $2.07 LOSE @ Padres -7 $1.99 LOSE (2-8)

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