Daily tips for August 28

Racing for August 28

Horse racing: Sportingbet Park Sandown Lakeside (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Murray Bridge (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Maryborough (Vic), Mildura (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic), Cannington (WA), Ballarat (Vic), Rockhampton (Qld).

It’s a huge day and an early start for today’s 10-race meeting at Sandown Lakeside featuring a pair of jumps’ features each worth $100,000. The Australian Steeplechase favourite Bashboy will go around odds-on and is conceding a massive 10.5 kgs to the other five starters! Our friends at Champion Picks are sponsoring the ninth race, a 0-90 restricted handicap over 1400 metres. It’s a trick affair with many chances but I like the look of the promising Michael Moroney stayer #9 Rhythm To Spare. The 4yo NZ gelding is making his seventh start, and first since finishing 3.8L fourth to Hawkspur in the Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m) over the winter. He’ll be back in the running today but with Glen Boss staying on board and plenty of strength required to climb the Sandown straight, class could be enough to get this son of Pins over the line.

Suggested bet: Sandown R9 #9 Rhythm To Spare E/W 1x2 (three units) 1st ($2.50/$1.50)

Other tips

Sandown R1 #3 Arch Fire (win) 1st ($1.50)

Sandown R7 #8 Bia Diamond (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Sandown R8 #11 Nadhima (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Sandown R10 # 3 Your Honour (E/W 1x4)

Warwick Farm R2 #16 Wordplay (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.00/$1.60)

Warwick Farm R4 #2 Shelford (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.30)
Warwick Farm R6 #11 Tried And Tired (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Warwick Farm R7 #18 Wistful (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($3.00)

Eagle Farm R6 #3 Southerly (win) LOSE (3rd)

Eagle Farm R7 #7 Vis A Tergo (win) 1st ($3.30)

Murray Bridge R6 #4 Do Telle (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Murray Bridge R8 #1 Saturday Sorcerer (win) 1st ($2.50)

Harness racing tip: Mildura R3 #5 Glasscutterspirit (win) 1st ($1.50)

Greyhound racing tip: Bulli R3 #2 Zambora Gun (win) 1st ($1.40)

Feature: Back to school for a new NCAAF season

While the NFL is the sport wagered the heaviest, college football has become more and more popular as people realise it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly. Betting on college football is not the same as the NFL, so make sure you separate the two.

NCAAF or College Football (which starts on Friday) has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s more manual, but when done correctly, more gratifying and potentially profitable.

Steer clear of big dogs

Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAAF. Teams favoured by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams are playing their non-conference schedules. The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favoured by 40 points is favoured by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

Going through the front or back?

A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favourite scores late and covers the number by which they are favoured. These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second- and third-string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

By the numbers

Getting into the nuts and bolts of College Football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offence and defence, pass efficiency offence and defence and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to College Football. Being able to run the ball in College Football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Yardage doesn’t tell the whole story

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be misinterpreted. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration. I suggest you use pass efficiency ratings but adjust the numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key. Turnovers remain the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a College Football game.

MLB for August 27-28

Chicago Cubs (55-76, 30-35 away) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (77-54, 39-27 home), Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Wednesday, August 28, 12.10pm

After Zack Greinke’s performance in the series opener exemplified how the Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting rotation is among the best in the majors, Clayton Kershaw will look to provide an encore. Kershaw takes the mound for the NL West leaders at Dodger Stadium as they look to win a ninth straight meeting with the Chicago Cubs for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers’ rotation has an MLB-best 3.13 ERA after Greinke came within one out of recording his fifth career shutout in yesterday’s 6-2 win. He also added an RBI single for Los Angeles (77-54), which matched its club-record winning streak against Chicago set from June 9, 1974-May 19, 1975. The Dodgers shined offensively, too, as Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, who had three hits, homered to help them remain 9 1/2 games ahead of second-place Arizona in the West. Kershaw (13-7, 1.72 ERA) has tossed up plenty of zeros while leading the majors in ERA. He’s in position to join Lefty Grove (1929-31) and Greg Maddux (1993-95) as the only pitchers since 1901 to finish at the top of that category in three straight seasons. The left-hander has pitched eight innings in five of his last six starts, going 4-1 with a 0.78 ERA.

He has won three straight outings and threw eight scoreless innings in each of the last two, including Thursday’s 6-0 win at Miami. Kershaw has been great against the Cubs in his career as well, going 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA in four starts. Starlin Castro is 0 for 13 against him. Chicago (55-76), which has dropped six of seven, had only three hits through eight innings Monday before Brian Bogusevic’s two-run double with two outs on Greinke’s final pitch. They likely won’t have it any easier against Kershaw as it looks to end the skid against the Dodgers with help from Travis Wood, who is 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA in four career starts versus Los Angeles. Wood (7-10, 3.22) is 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA in his last five outings overall, a stretch that began when he allowed five runs and seven hits while walking five in a season-low 3 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on August 2. The left-hander allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-4, 13-inning loss to Washington on Thursday. The Cubs have lost four straight at Dodger Stadium.

Suggested bet: Dodgers -1.5 (two units @ $1.78) LOSE, game total -6 (one unit @ $2.02) WIN (3-2)

Other tips

IL: Indians @ Braves WIN $1.79 WIN (0-2)

AL: Yankees WIN $1.88 WIN @ Blue Jays +9 $1.97 LOSE (7-1)

AL: Athletics @ Tigers WIN $1.63 LOSE +8.5 $1.92 WIN (6-3)

AL: Orioles @ Red Sox WIN $1.78 WIN +9 $1.96 WIN (2-13)

AL: Angels @ Rays WIN $1.75 LOSE -7.5 $1.92 LOSE (6-5)

AL: Royals WIN $1.62 @ Twins WIN (6-1)

AL: Astros @ White Sox -1.5 $1.88 LOSE (3-4)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.79 @ Mariners WIN (4-3)

NL: Marlins @ Nationals WIN $1.64 WIN -8.5 $1.93 WIN (1-2)

NL: Brewers WIN $2.23 WIN @ Pirates +7 $1.80 WIN (7-6)

NL: Phillies @ Mets WIN $1.76 WIN -7.5 $1.91 WIN (0-5)

NL: Reds WIN $1.84 LOSE @ Cardinals -7.5 $2.11 WIN (1-6)

NL: Giants @ Rockies WIN $1.85 LOSE -10.5 $1.95 WIN (5-3)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.