Daily tips for July 28

AFL (R18) for July 28

Port Adelaide (9-7) v Brisbane (7-9), AAMI Stadium, Sunday, July 28, 1.10pm AEST

Perception puts the Power well ahead of the Lions in the 2013 pecking order but just two wins separate these sides on the ladder and Michael Voss will fancy his side’s chances of closing the gap even further here. Four years have passed since the Power last defeated Brisbane at AAMI Stadium – their only win over the Lions in eight years at home. That said, they’ve generally been close and hard fought affairs between these sides. Kane Cornes, Dom Cassisi and Matt Thomas have been named to an extended Power bench while Jonathan Brown and Brent Moloney could be back for the Lions. Like Melbourne, the Darwin factor is a major cross against Brisbane here, especially heading into the final weeks of the season. With so much at stake, the Power should take the points but I only have a slight lean to the home side at the line.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide -19.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (71-62)

Footscray (4-12) v West Coast (7-9), Etihad Stadium, Sunday, July 28, 3.20pm AEST

When the Bulldogs have been competitive this year, it’s mostly been on the back of the work of vastly improved ruckman Will Minson. However, the big man is going to have his work cut out against the tall timber of the West Coast Eagles in Melbourne on Sunday. The Eagles have dominated the Dogs in recent meetings, with four of the past five decided by more than eight goals. Footscray last beat West Coast in Perth four years ago. Credit Brendan McCarthy for scratching four wins out of the competition’s worst list but they won’t improve to five here. For all their intensity and, at times, ability to move the ball quickly, the Bulldogs rarely exert enough scoreboard pressure on their opponents. Even without Nic Natanui, the Eagles’ tall options in attack and around the ground (especially under the roof at Etihad) should be enough for West Coast to salute.

Suggested bet: Game total -194.5 (two units @ $1.91)

Sydney (12-3) v Richmond (11-5), SCG, Sunday, July 28, 4.40pm AEST

It’s been feast or famine for the Tigers against the Swans in recent years. Richmond was the only side to defeat last year’s grand finalists Sydney and Hawthorn in 2012 and have won three of their past four against the Swans. However, it’s been almost a decade since the Tigers have taken the four premiership points at the SCG. Both sides bring tasty form to the table here – the Swans were clinical against West Coast in Perth last Sunday, while Richmond claimed its first major scalp of 2013 with a 27-point victory over Fremantle. The Tigers will miss the intensity of Jake King but regain workhorse Shane Tuck while John Longmire was happy that his side’s long injury list didn’t grow last week. The line of 25.5 looks within reach for the Tigers, and on a firm track, the ‘over’ game total also appeals.

Suggested bet: Richmond +22.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91), game total +182.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91)

Racing for July 28

Horse racing: Sportingbet Park Sandown Lakeside (Vic), Narrandera (NSW), Beaudesert (Qld), Wodonga (NSW), Quirindi (NSW), Kalgoorlie (WA), Devonport (Tas). Harness racing: Goulburn (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Geelong (Vic). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Mt Gambier (SA), Sandown Park (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Sale (Vic), Strathalbyn (SA), Wagga (NSW), Albion Park (Qld).

It’s all eyes on Sandown today for the running of the richest race anywhere in the country this weekend – the time-honoured $250,000 Grand National Steeplechase. #1 Bashboy will have to carry 7.5kg more than any other runner, but is still rated a $1.50 chance! My best comes up in race 5, the BMW Handicap (BM78) over 1200 metres, which is down to seven runners after three scratchings. There’s some impressive horse flesh going around here but I think #6 Skawboard Pressure will mow down the lot. The 3yo gelding has won one of four and finished runner-up at his past three starts. Jake Duffy claims 2kg, which takes him with 1kg of the minimum and down 4kg on his first run this campaign. I also suggested a small saver on the roughie #9 Hannaford, which hasn’t sighted a heavy track sine his debut win.

Suggested bet: Sandown R5 #6 Skawboard Pressure WIN (two units) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Sandown R3 #7 Stand to Gain (E/W) 3rd ($1.40)

Sandown R4 #1 Bashboy (win) 1st ($1.60)

Wodonga R5 #3 Red Five (win) LOSE (2nd)

Narrandera R2 #1 Calke Abbey (win) 1st ($2.00)

Narrandera R4 #2 Reka Outlaw (E/W) 2nd ($1.70)

Quirindi R4 #4 Ima Secret (E/W) 3rd ($1.90)

Quirindi R5 #7 Forest Way (win) LOSE (2nd)

Beaudesert R1 #6 Luxton Deeping (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Beaudesert R4 #5 Sir Cavallaro (win) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Goulburn R7 #11 Ultimate Art (win) 1st ($1.60)
Greyhound racing tip: Sandown Park R4 #1 Rocky Bale (win) 1st ($1.50)

Note: no MLB tips will be posted today or tomorrow (July 27-28 games) but will return for Tuesday's card.

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