Daily tips for July 26

NRL (R20) for July 26

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (9-8) v Parramatta Eels (3-14), ANZ Stadium, Friday, July 26, 7.35pm

Finals look likely for the Bulldogs – an amazing feat after five losses in their opening six games and a start to 2013. For the Eels, anchored to the foot of the table six points below any other team with just three wins, there are just seven matches to come in the horror year that has been 2013. This season Canterbury – grand-finalists in 2012 – started poorly, but they’ve rebounded in fine fashion and since Round 7 have won eight of 11 matches, defeating the Sharks (24-8), Warriors (24-16), Sea Eagles (32-30) and Storm (39-0) along the way. As a result, they’ve surged up the table into sixth position and back into premiership reckoning. Admittedly the Storm were undermanned last week, but a 39-point drubbing is impressive in anyone’s books and I expect a similar scoreline here.

For the Bulldogs, Josh Morris’ return from Origin duty sends Tim Lafai back to NSW Cup. Frank Pritchard and Sam Kasiano also return to stiffen the forward pack, pushing Josh Jackson to the bench, Tim Browne to jersey No.20 and Martin Taupau to NSW Cup. The Eels have defeated only the Warriors in Round 1 (40-10), the Sharks in Round 5 (13-6) and the Broncos in Round 9 (19-18), and resulted in coach Ricky Stuart publically declaring a dozen players are unwanted for 2014. Parramatta haven’t won one of their past eight matches, and their ‘record’ could get even worse in this one. For the Eels, Mitch Allgood returns from suspension while Ken Sio returns from injury to take his place on the wing. Their inclusion pushes Brayden Wiliame and Kaysa Pritchard out of the line-up.

Suggested bet: Bulldogs -21.5 (3.5 units @ $1.80) WIN, game total +44 (1.5 units @ $1.90) WIN (40-12)

AFL (R18) for July 26

Essendon (13-3) v Hawthorn (14-2), Etihad Stadium, Friday, July 26, 7.50pm

It may be first versus second, but the last time these sides met (round 18 last year), the Hawks triumphed by 94 points. A year earlier, the margin was 65 points in favour of Hawthorn. Despite perception, matches between the competition’s fiercest rivalries are rarely close and I’m confident this will again be the case here. Essendon welcome back Heath Hocking, Ben Howlett and David Zaharakis among five changes, but Hawthorn is in the enviable position to be able to recall Sam Mitchell and Lance Franklin.

These sides match-up evenly across the board but the Hawks are averaging almost three marks inside 50 more than the Bombers and several key indicators point to their ability to take the ball away from their opponents. The divisions at the Essendon Football Club have finally bubbled over this week, and this may be the tipping point where the peptides scandal finally manifests in the minds of the players on the park. I expect Hawthorn to rise to the occasion and burst the Bombers’ balloon in emphatic fashion.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn -22.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91), game total -200.5 (1.5 units @ $1.90)

Racing for July 26

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Goulburn (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Taree (NSW), Broome (WA). Harness racing: Mildura (Vic), Wagga (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Parkes (NSW), Melton (Vic), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

The eight-race card at the Taree-Wingham Racing Club is being run on a heavy (8) today. Our best of the day is scheduled to jump at 4pm in race 7, the Sunne Printing BM60 Handicap over 1600 metres. The top rater #4 First Class Ticket has won two of her 11 starts including last time out at Newcastle over 1400m. Apprentice Taylor Marshall retains the ride, ensuring 3kg of weight relief for the 4yo mare. Her runs have been nicely spread by trainer Allan Denham of Wyong, which should have her cherry ripe for this.

Suggested bet: Taree R7 #4 First Class Ticket WIN (two units @ $2.40) WIN (1st)

Other tips

Geelong R2 #1 I’m In Charge (win) 1st ($1.90)

Geelong R4 #7 Blue Ash (E/W) 3rd ($2.50)

Geelong R6 #6 Smackdown (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Geelong R7 #2 Coffee (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.60/$1.20)

Goulburn R5 #2 The Da (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.10/$1.50)

Goulburn R6 #10 I Got You Babe (win) LOSE (U/P)

Goulburn R8 #1 Via Facile (E/W) 2nd ($1.90)

Taree R4 #3 Satang Satang (E/W) 3rd ($1.90)

Taree R5 #1 Emperor of Oz (E/W) 2nd ($2.00)

Townsville R7 #5 Daph ‘N’ Alf (E/W) 1st ($2.10/$1.30)

Harness racing tip: Melton R8 #1 Blazeaway Macray (win)

Greyhound racing tip: The Gardens R1 #7 All Tommie (win) LOSE (4th)

MLB for July 26

Baltimore Orioles (57-45, 28-25 away) @ Kansas City Royals (47-51, 26-24 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MS, Friday, July 26, 10.10am

The Baltimore Orioles have had a run of solid starting pitching performances, though their last two efforts were wasted in losses to the Kansas City Royals. Red-hot Miguel Gonzalez figures to give them a good shot at getting back on track here when the Orioles seek a series split at Kauffman Stadium. While the Orioles have received seven straight quality starts, Baltimore (57-45) has plated just five runs while dropping the last two. Gonzalez (8-3, 3.34), who has gone 6-1 (2.35 ERA) in his last eight starts, has also excelled on the road.

His 2.83 road ERA over the past two seasons ranks among the lowest in the major leagues. The right-hander pitched into the sixth inning for the 23rd consecutive start – one of the longest active streaks in baseball – as he allowed one run over 6 2/3 innings in Saturday’s 7-4 win at Texas. The team had tallied 30 runs while hitting .319 during its preceding five-game winning streak. Gonzalez will try to put together another solid effort against a Kansas City team that has won four of six despite going 7 for 43 (.163) with runners in scoring position.

Baltimore may also be able to bounce back offensively against Jeremy Guthrie (9-7, 4.41 ERA). The right-hander, who won his first five decisions of the season, is 2-4 with a 6.05 ERA in his last seven starts. He was tagged for five runs and 10 hits over six innings in a 6-5 victory over Detroit on Saturday. Guthrie has been hit hard at home, going 1-1 with a 9.82 ERA in his last three starts. The former Oriole faces his old club for the second time after yielding two runs (one earned) over six innings in a 6-2 win at Baltimore on May 9.

Suggested bet: Orioles WIN (three units @ $1.74) LOSE (1-7)

Other tips

AL: Yankees @ Rangers -7.5 $1.98 WIN (2-0)

AL: Astros @ Blue Jays -1.5 $1.91 WIN (0-4)

AL: Rays WIN $2.19 @ Red Sox POSTPONED

AL: Angels @ Athletics WIN $1.91 LOSE (8-3)

AL: Twins @ Mariners WIN $1.53 WIN (2-8)

NL: Braves @ Mets WIN $2.10 WIN (4-7)

NL: Pirates @ Nationals +7 $2.01 WIN (7-9)

NL: Padres @ Brewers +8.5 $1.87 WIN (10-8)

NL: Phillies @ Cardinals -7.5 $1.95 WIN (1-3)

NL: Cubs @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.65 WIN (1-3)

NL: Reds @ Dodgers WIN $1.93 LOSE -7 $1.91 PUSH (5-2)

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