Daily tips for July 27

NRL (R20) for July 27

St George Illawarra Dragons (6-11) v Canberra Raiders (9-8), WIN Stadium, Saturday, July 27, 5.30pm

The Dragons managed to maintain a pulse in terms of their chances of making the finals when they scored a shock win over the Rabbitohs on Monday night. Victory looked a forlorn hope when the Dragons trailed 18-6 approaching the final 10 minutes of normal time, but two converted tries later they were in golden point extra time, during which time winger Brett Morris scored to clinch a 22-18 win. The Dragons, who are playing on a short turnaround here, may need to win each of their remaining seven games to make the finals. They could possibly afford one loss. But they will be trying not to think any further ahead than this game, and the Raiders are their bogy team. This is a fitting game for Rivalry Round, because whenever these two teams come together there is massive interest in whether the Raiders can continue their amazing domination of the Dragons. The Raiders have won nine of the past 10 clashes including the past eight in a row.

Before beating the Rabbitohs, the Dragons had lost three in a row, against the Cowboys (22-16), Panthers (25-10) and Roosters (36-0). They are in 14th place on 16 competition points, with six wins and 11 losses. The Raiders, having won two in a row against the Cowboys (26-18) and Eels (14-0), are in eighth place on 22 points, with nine wins and eight losses. They have been up and down all season, and have never at any stage won or lost more than two games in a row. Adding spice to the rivalry, this will be the first time the Raiders have played against Josh Dugan since their former fullback was sacked by the club because of off-field disciplinary issues after Round 1. Senior Raiders players were unhappy with Dugan's behaviour. Dugan took a while to find a new club, but did so at the Dragons. Injuries to Jarryd Hayne and Brett Stewart also opened the way for Dugan to make it back into the NSW side for State of Origins II and III. (Preview with thanks to NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Game total -38 (3.5 units @ $1.90) LOSE (18-22)

AFL (R18) for July 27

Gold Coast (6-10) v Carlton (8-8), Metricon Stadium, Saturday, July 27, 1.45pm

Logic would suggest that if Gold Coast dispatched of Collingwood last week then they shouldn’t be overly troubled by Carlton. Not so simple – for a start, Mick Malthouse is unlikely to allow Brownlow Medal favourite Gary Ablett jnr the freedom to rattle up another 49 possessions, while the Blues’ loss to the Suns last year, which cost them a spot in the finals, will be foremost in the minds of the players. The Suns’ key numbers looked to be tapering off after the mid-season break but they bounced back emphatically last week while Carlton fell over the line against a disappointing North Melbourne last week. Carlton has the most at stake and can be expected to play accordingly but I have little faith in their spluttering forward line while the Suns should win their fair share of the footy out of the centre to keep the score close enough to cover the generous line on offer.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast +13.5 (three units @ $1.91) LOSE (77-120)

Melbourne (2-14) v Nth Melbourne (6-10), Etihad Stadium, Saturday, July 27, 2.10pm

Another chapter in the Kangaroos’ sorry 2013 tale was written last Friday night when Brad Scott’s side fell one point short against the Blues, marking their fifth loss of fewer than six points for the year. Although finals are now well out of reach, the Roos will be more than happy to beat up on a Melbourne side coming off another honourable loss last week. However, the Demons’ loss to Brisbane in Darwin ticks a major play for me as sides traditionally struggle the week after playing in the tropical heat of the Top End. Additionally, North has enjoyed an extra day’s rest. The Roos are 6-0 against the Demons at Etihad Stadium, average more than 35 points per game and 11 inside 50s more than their opponents and have won the past 10 editions of this fixture. The line looks comfortably within North’s reach but only a small play here.

Suggested bet: North Melbourne -62.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (150-28)

Collingwood (10-6) v Greater Western Sydney (0-16), MCG, Saturday, July 27, 4.40pm

As my dear old Dad would say, the Pies have had more ups and downs than the Scenic Railway this year and they marked another low with a shock defeat on the Gold Coast last week. That loss casts serious doubt over the Magpies’ premiership credentials and they’ll even need a percentage-boosting win here to stay in touch with the sixth-placed Tigers. I’ve regularly raised the division among Collingwood’s defenders as a key to the side’s inconsistency with key agitator Harry O’Brien back to make things prickly again this week. Nathan Brown and Jarryd Blair are more positive inclusions. The Giants have been equally unpredictable and, based on recent history, this will be a ‘down’ week for Kevin Sheedy’s young guns. Prefer to watch this one, Giants to cover if you must have a bet.

Suggested bet: GWS Giants +86.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (106-66)

Geelong (13-3) v St Kilda (3-13), Simonds Stadium, Saturday, July 27, 7.40pm

Despite the space between these sides on the ladder, recent meetings between the Cats and Saints have been surprisingly close (stretching back to some memorable finals contests only a handful of years back) although Geelong cruised home by seven goals last time out at Etihad Stadium. This is St Kilda’s first trip down the Princes Freeway since 2004 and only Lenny Hayes was on the Saints’ list when they last won here in 1999. Credit to Scott Watters for keeping the level of enthusiasm in his camp high enough for the young Saints to push Port Adelaide to the wire last week. Geelong will be eager to atone for their shock loss to Adelaide last week, regaining Steve Johnson and Taylor Hunt among others while Jimmy Bartel (suspension) and Josh Hunt (injury) will miss. I have a slight lean to the Saints at the line, but the game total looks a safer bet.

Suggested bet: Game total -185.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (137-36)

Fremantle (11-4) v Adelaide (7-9), Patersons Stadium, Saturday, July 27, 7.40pm

Credit to Brenton Sanderson and his beat-up Adelaide side for one of the grittiest wins of the season over Geelong last week. They have the chance to claim another top eight scalp with a trip west to take on the Dockers under lights in Perth. The Crows will fancy their chances having won three of their past five at Patersons Stadium and three of their last four against Fremantle. The Dockers will receive a boost with the likely return of Aaron Sandilands and Nick Suban, while the Crows have brought in Shaun McKernan for the injured Ben Rutten. The midfield battle will be a key on the wide expanses of Subiaco. Adelaide won both the clearances and the contested possession count against the Cats while the Dockers were smashed in both categories by the Tigers last Sunday. I can see no reason why the Crows can’t cover a four-goal line against the spluttering Dockers.

Suggested bet: Adelaide WIN (0.5 units @ $4.00) LOSE, Adelaide +24.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, game total -160.5 (best of the round, three units @ $1.91) WIN (75-53)

Racing for July 27

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Donald (Vic), Lismore (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Darwin (NT), Roebourne (WA), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Newcastle (NSW), Gloucester Park (WA), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (NSW), Traralgon (Vic).

When you’re on a good thing … I’m sticking with Morphettville for the best of the day, which comes up in the Toll Express Handicap (race 6 at 3.09pm) over 1600m. #10 Mumbeilly has been ploughing through heavy tracks at Sandown at its past four starts without much luck but gets a dead (5) and a gun run from barrier 2 while Dom Tourneur will carry the minimum weight of 54kg. This 4yo mare, trained at Caulfield by Peter Moody, has won two of 15 and has everything in her favour to make it three career wins here.

Suggested bet: Morphettville R6 #10 Mumbeilly E/W 1x4 (two units) 3rd ($1.70)

Other tips

Caulfield R1 #12 Monkstone (win) 1st ($2.05)
Caulfield R2 #2 Dayita (E/W) 3rd ($2.45)

Caulfield R5 #9 Octavia (win) 1st ($1.80)

Caulfield R6 #2 Launay (E/W) 3rd ($2.00)

Randwick R1 #2 Watabout (win) 1st ($1.75)

Randwick R2 #1 Arabian Gold (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.20/$1.60)

Randwick R3 #9 Pinocchio (place) LOSE (4th)

Randwick R4 #2 Mount Nebo (E/W) 1st ($4.50/$2.00)

Randwick R5 #5 Total Attraction (E/W) 3rd ($1.50)

Randwick R6 #6 Griffon (E/W) 3rd ($2.40)

Randwick R8 #4 Eigelstein (E/W) 1st ($3.80/$2.00)

Doomben R2 #9 Little Bit Ditsy (win) LOSE (3rd)

Doomben R3 #1 Carmine King (win) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R6 #1 Flying Home (E/W) 2nd ($2.00)

Doomben R8 #2 Discreet (win) 1st ($3.20)

Morphettville R3 #1 Dee Bee Nine (E/W) LOSE (NTD)

Morphettville R5 #2 Charmed Harmony (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.60)

Morphettville R7 #6-5-13 (boxed trifecta) LOSE

Morphettville R8 #11 Reel Way (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Belmont R2 #1 Mr Utopia (win) 1st ($1.80)

Newcastle R2 #7 Plenty Special (win) 1st ($2.70)

MLB for July 27

Milwaukee Brewers (42-59, 16-30 away) @ Colorado Rockies (49-54, 29-25 home), Saturday, July 27, 10.40am

Wily Peralta may have been one of baseball’s best pitchers this month – a welcome departure from his struggles for the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this season, which began with a mediocre performance against the Colorado Rockies. Now, Peralta gets a second chance against the Rockies as he takes the mound at Coors Field on Friday night. Peralta (7-9, 4.30 ERA) posted a 5.58 ERA through his first 17 starts, including a 7-3 loss to Colorado on April 3 in which he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings. But the right-hander has reversed his fortunes of late and has given up one earned run in 29 1/3 innings over four July starts for a major league-best 0.31 ERA. The Brewers (42-59) fell to 1-3 since Ryan Braun’s doping suspension, losing 10-8 to San Diego on Thursday.

Scheduled starter for the Rockies, Tyler Chatwood (6-3, 2.48), has been solid after one of the roughest outings of his career. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA in three starts since allowing six runs and 11 hits over five innings of a 10-8 loss to the Dodgers on July 3. Wilin Rosario has hit safely in all eight of his games versus Milwaukee, going 12 for 28 (.429) with three homers and seven RBIs. Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .200 with 12 strikeouts in 10 games since returning from a fractured rib, but is batting .395 in 32 career contests against the Brewers with 10 home runs and 28 RBIs. The Rockies have won eight of the last 10 meetings after taking two of three in Milwaukee during the teams’ season-opening series.

Suggested bet: Rockies WIN (2.5 units @ $1.72) WIN, game total -9.5 (1.5 units @ $1.83) LOSE (3-8)

Other tips

AL: Red Sox WIN $1.93 LOSE @ Orioles -9 $1.92 WIN (0-6)

AL: Rangers @ Indians WIN $1.83 WIN -8 $1.92 LOSE (8-11)

AL: Rays WIN $1.95 @ Yankees WIN (10-6)

AL: Astros @ Blue Jays -1.5 $1.91 WIN +9 $1.95 WIN (6-12)

AL: Royals WIN $1.82 @ White Sox WIN (5-1)

AL: Angels @ Athletics -1.5 $2.30 WIN (4-6)

AL: Twins @ Mariners -1.5 $1.95 LOSE +7 $1.95 LOSE (3-2)

NL: Mets WIN $1.80 LOSE @ Nationals (2) -8 $1.96 WIN (1-2)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.60 LOSE @ Marlins -7.5 $1.83 WIN (0-2)

NL: Cardinals @ Braves -7 $2.00 WIN (1-4)

NL: Padres @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.74 WIN (0-10)

NL: Reds @ Dodgers +6.5 $2.05 LOSE (1-2)

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