Daily tips for July 13

NRL (R18) for July 13

Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers, Parramatta Stadium, Saturday, July 13, 5.30pm

How quickly things change in rugby league. Just a handful of weeks ago this clash would’ve been considered a battle of the cellar-dwellers – now the Panthers have surged into the top eight and are contemplating at a finals berth! Early on the Panthers’ season looked similarly dire – until Round 7, after which they’ve won six of eight matches and rocketed up into the finals cut-off zone. A big win here could see them move to as high as fifth, while a loss would see them slip out of the eight altogether. Last week the Panthers disposed of the Titans in Darwin, recording a 40-18 victory, while the Sea Eagles smoked the Eels 50-10.

The same, however, cannot be said of the Eels. They’ve won just three matches all season, suffering numerous wallopings along the way. They’ve conceded 50 and 38 points (in two separate matches) against the Roosters, 44 against the Panthers, 42 against the Titans, 50 last week against the Sea Eagles and a total of 30 points or more nine times this season. It’s a far cry from their golden run to the grand final in 2009 and, unfortunately for Eels fans, things look like they might get even worse before they get better. For a team on a six-match losing streak, that’s saying something!

Suggested bet: Penrith -10.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (10-17)

Racing for July 13

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Launceston (Tas), Darwin (NT), Broome (WA). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Bunbury (WA), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW), Wagga (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (NSW), Traralgon (Vic).

Followers of our Saturday tips will have noticed that Morphettville has been our most successful venue in recent weeks and we’re hoping to keep the riches flowing in the fifth on today’s card – the Len French Handicap over 1000m. Trained by Mark Minervini at Murray Bridge and again ridden here by Shayne Cahill, #4 Splash of Moet won her two starts as a 2yo back in June before an eye-catching third in her only start last October. The 3yo grey filly returns to action here after a trial win two weeks ago and should be finishing all over the top of this bunch with the heavy (8) seeming no impediment.

Suggested bet: Morphettville R5 #4 Splash of Moet WIN (three units @ $2.25) 1st

Other tips

Caulfield R2 #1 Octavia (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Caulfield R5 #7 Done Nothin’ Wrong (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R6 #10 Mrs Onassis (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R7 #13 Committed (E/W) 2nd ($3.10)

Caulfield R8 #8 Corvidae (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R3 #2 Acapela (E/W) 3rd ($2.50)

Warwick Farm R5 #5 Adabelle (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R6 #4 Mr Armstrong (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R7 #7 Knead the Dough (win) LOSE (2nd)

Warwick Farm R8 #6 Upshot (E/W) 1st ($5.30/$1.90)

Doomben R1 #4 Cape Kidnappers (win) 1st ($1.40)

Doomben R4 #2 Alcancia (E/W) 3rd ($2.20)

Doomben R5 #4 Flying Home (win) LOSE (3rd)

Doomben R6 #12 All My Angels (place) 3rd ($11.70)

Doomben R7 #9 Lucky Hussler (win) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R1 #1 Pit Boss (win) 1st ($3.10)

Morphettville R3 #7 Ironbank (E/W) 2nd ($3.30)

Morphettville R4 #2 Mr Lowndes (E/W 1x4) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R7 #6 Lionhearted Girl (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.90/$1.40)

Harness racing tip: Menangle R2 #7 Our Sixpence (win) 1st ($1.20)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R1 #2 Paw Licking (win) 1st ($1.50)

AFL (R16) for July 13

Port Adelaide (8-6) v Hawthorn (12-2) AAMI Stadium, Saturday, July 13, 1.15pm AEST

Prior to last week’s loss to Essendon in Melbourne, Port Adelaide had defeated Sydney and Collingwood in successive weeks at home. Will the Hawks be the third big scalp? They’ll certainly be fired up after suffering another dose of the ‘Kennett Curse’ against the Cats last week, but Hawthorn’s overall stats have been trending down for several weeks so there’s no reason to think they’ll suddenly rebound on a wet afternoon in Adelaide. The Hawks have won the past two against Port here and past four overall but this looms as a slog. Ken Hinkley was rightly frustrated by Justin Westhoff’s unnecessary suspension, but John Butcher and Matt Thomas earn a recall. Brad Sewell, the popular pick for the Norm Smith Medal is the 2012 Grand Final, has been dropped with Brent Guerra returning for Hawthorn.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide +25.5 LOSE (79-124)

Geelong (12-2) v Melbourne (2-12), Simonds Stadium, Saturday, July 13, 2.10pm

Each year, the Demons are handed one of the shortest straws in the competition, as they are the only Victorian based club regularly scheduled to play the Cats in Geelong. They’ve lost five in a row at Simonds Stadium (and eight in total) stretching back to a draw in 2006, including a 186-point loss in 2011. And despite better form over the past fortnight, the 2-11 Demons are coming up against a side that’s lost just twice this year and coming off their second win over the Hawks for the season. Geelong will be without Joel Corey, Corey Enright and Allen Christensen but regain Steve Johnson and Travis Varcoe. I expect the Cats’ numbers will fall away marginally this week and with cool and wet conditions likely on Saturday afternoon, the Dees are some chance of covering, but it’s a marginal play at best.

Suggested bet: Melbourne +69.5 WIN (98-30)

Richmond (9-5) v Gold Coast (5-9), Cazaly’s Stadium, Cairns, Saturday, July 13, 4.40pm

Cairns is normally a dream destination for travellers, but not for the Tigers who’ve lost on both their visits here to take on the Suns including a demoralising defeat last year when rugby league convert Karmichael Hunt (pictured) goaled after the final siren. Gold Coast skipper Gary Ablett, who polled five Brownlow votes in those previous clashes, will be back after missing last week’s loss to the Lions at the Gabba in Brisbane, while the Tigers will be bolstered by the return of ruckman Ivan Maric.

Humbled by North Melbourne last week, there’s a huge bounce-back factor in play here for Richmond in this crucial test of their top eight credentials. The 'under' game total line looks an appealing play – similarly to the past two games, conditions will be fine and warm with a stiff breeze blowing straight down the ground. Gold Coast will be far more attuned to the conditions so Richmond will want to make a strong start should the heat take its toll in the second half. That said, the yellow and black look good things here.

Suggested bet: Richmond -24.5 LOSE, game total -180.5 WIN (53-44)

Carlton (6-8) v St Kilda (3-11), Etihad Stadium, Saturday, July 13, 7.40pm

Mick Malthouse looked every bit of his 59 years as he watched his Carlton side torn apart by Collingwood at the MCG last Friday night. The early loss of Jarrad Waite was costly, but shouldn’t excuse the Blues’ capitulation after quarter-time. At 6-8, their finals hopes are remote at best and they’re no certainties here against a St Kilda side that provided Fremantle with a stern test on their home turf last week. Did Scott Watters notice that his forward set-up was far more efficient and dynamic without the lumbering tall targets of Riewoldt and Koschitzke? The Saints actually may not need a huge input of goals to win this one, with Carlton managing just 17 goals in their two starts since the mid-season break. The Saints should cover, and an upset win wouldn’t surprise.

Suggested bet: St Kilda +19.5 (best of the round) LOSE (110-74)

Brisbane Lions (5-9) v Nth Melbourne (6-8), Gabba, Saturday, July 13, 7.40pm

Eight years have passed since the Kangaroos last won at the Gabba and this is no ‘gimme’ either as they take on an improving Lions outfit. Both sides impressed last week – the Roos mocked Richmond’s top eight status while Brisbane weathered every challenge from the Suns in the latest ‘Q Clash’. Brad Scott’s side were afforded every advantage by the Tigers last week, especially the space afforded to the North forwards. Michael Voss watched exactly the same thing unfold when his Lions were smashed by the Roos at Etihad Stadium in round 4. Brisbane will win its share of the footy out of the centre and provided they can slow up the Kangas on the counterattack, this could be a close one.

Suggested bet: Brisbane +15.5 WIN (117-105)

CFL for July 13

Calgary Stampeders (1-1) @ Montreal Alouettes (1-1), Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC, Saturday, July 13, 9.40am

After allowing 11 sacks in two games, the Montreal Alouettes will need to do more to protect quarterback Anthony Calvillo when they host the Calgary Stampeders. Calvillo appeared frustrated after being sacked seven times in a Week 2 home loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, calling the performance “disgusting” and raising questions about the offensive schemes instituted by new coach Dan Hawkins and his staff. Because of the increased defensive pressure, Calvillo has thrown for only 385 yards in the first two weeks, which is concerning for a team without a reliable running back.

Calgary has its own problems at quarterback as starter Drew Tate is day-to-day with a forearm strain suffered in a Week 2 road loss to the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Tate, who missed significant time last year because of injuries, left last week’s game in the fourth quarter and was replaced by veteran Kevin Glenn, who completed 4-of-7 passes. With no clear starter here, the Stampeders will need a strong showing from running back Jon Cornish, who was limited to 42 yards at Saskatchewan after running for 172 in the season opener (preview with thanks to covers.com).

Suggested bet: Game total -53.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Calgary WIN (one unit @ $2.02) WIN (22-14)

MLB for July 13

Boston Red Sox (57-37, 26-21 away) @ Oakland Athletics (54-38, 28-14 home), O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Saturday, July 13, 12.10pm

Boston right-hander John Lackey will be hoping for another strong start while trying to help the Red Sox avoid a seventh consecutive road loss to the Oakland Athletics in a matchup of division leaders. Returning from elbow surgery that erased his entire 2012 season and a biceps strain that sidelined him for most of April, Lackey started 1-4 with a 4.05 ERA. Since then, he’s 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA in 10 starts. Lackey (6-6, 2.80) lost for the first time in seven starts Sunday, allowing two solo homers among five hits and striking out nine in seven innings of a 3-0 defeat to the Los Angeles Angels.

Owner of a one-game lead over Texas in the AL West, Oakland has won 10 of 14 overall and 18 of 22 at home. The A’s lost 5-0 at Pittsburgh on Wednesday to conclude a 4-2 trip. Scheduled Oakland starter Jarrod Parker (6-6, 4.04) went 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA against the Red Sox last season. The right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.24 ERA in his last eight starts, but the A’s have tallied seven runs while losing his last three. After leaving his previous outing with hamstring tightness, Parker allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-3 loss at Kansas City on Saturday.

Suggested bet: Athletics WIN (1.5 units @ $1.90) LOSE, game total -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.80) WIN (4-2)

Other tips

AL: Blue Jays @ Orioles -9 $1.93 LOSE (5-8)

AL: Royals WIN $2.32 LOSE @ Indians -8.5 $1.98 WIN (0-3)

AL: Twins @ Yankees WIN $1.60 WIN (0-2)

AL: Astros @ Rays +7.5 $2.05 LOSE (2-1)

AL: Angels @ Mariners WIN $2.02 WIN (3-8)

NL: Mets +1.5 $1.63 @ Pirates WIN (2-3)

NL: Nationals @ Marlins WIN $2.70 WIN (3-8)

NL: Reds @ Braves WIN $1.76 LOSE (4-2)

NL: Brewers @ Diamondbacks -8 $1.95 WIN (1-2)

NL: Rockies @ Dodgers -1.5 $1.91 LOSE (3-0)

NL: Giants @ Padres +1.5 $1.63 LOSE (10-1)

Royal Baby special for July 13

Having provided an heir to the LAC throne almost a year ago to the day, we knew exactly who to help us navigate our way through the myriad Royal Baby markets on offer!

The fact that the top seven names in the market are girls' names suggests that the cat is already out of the bag on Baby Cambridge’s sex. But if that doesn’t convince you consider the following:

• Kate is skinny. A British study found that women with a lower energy intake were 65 per cent more likely to have a daughter than a son.

• Wills is a pilot. Research into how a man’s occupation affects the sex of his children revealed that dads with jobs involving stress or pollutants, including high performance pilots, are more likely to have girls.

• Where’s the bucket? Severe morning sickness indicates you are carrying a girl. The figures back up it up too, with 55 per cent of women with Hyperemesis Gravidarum giving birth to a daughter.

Wills is deeply sentimental, as demonstrated by his decision to give Kate his late mother’s engagement ring when he popped the question. That suggests Diana, or possibly Elizabeth – after his Grandmother – will feature somewhere in the name. But it won’t be the first name. The couple has shown how determined they are to do things their way, and they will give their first born a moniker all their own.

After enduring years of her own name being shortened from Catherine to Kate by the press, the Duchess of Cambridge won’t want the same fate for her child. Alexandra may be the favourite with the bookies, but Baby Alex or Lexi may not hold the same appeal for the royal couple. Shorter names including Mary ($15), and Grace ($17) are in the bookies' shortlist as is my favourite – Alice ($14).

The palace says the royal bub will arrive this week with July 13 ($6.00) favoured among bookies. But just 5 per cent of women expecting their first child deliver on their due date. Most first time mums are late, some by as much as two weeks.

Experts find it hard to predict hair colour. Both parents provide genetic material that determines hair colour. Dark hair is a dominant trait, so you should be safe betting that Baby Cambridge will have her mother’s thick brown locks, rather than her father’s wispy fair hair. But, it is possible for recessive genes from both sides to combine and produce a different colour to that sported by either parent (just ask Harry)!

Suggested bets:

Birth date July 21 (0.25 units @ $17)

Birth date July 22 (0.25 units @ $13)

Birth date July 23 (0.25 units @ $15)

Birth date July 24 (0.25 units @ $17)

Name – Victoria (0.5 units @ $7.50)

Name – Alice (0.25 units @ $14.00

Name – Mary (0.25 units @ $15.00)

Hair colour – Brown (two units @ $2.50)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.