Daily tips for July 20

AFL (R17) for July 20

Hawthorn v Footscray, Aurora Stadium, Launceston, Saturday, July 20, 1.45pm AEST

It’s going to be a cold and wet afternoon in the north of Tasmania for the battle between first and 15th. The Bulldogs turned in one of their better performances of the season against the Bombers last week but still trailed by five goals at the final siren and lost youngster Clay Smith to a knee injury for the rest of the year. The Hawks quickly put the loss to Geelong behind with an impressive win over Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium and look good things here. The form of Jarryd Roughead has added an even steelier edge to the Hawks attack, allowing the second rotating tall an additional challenge for the opposition defence. The absence of Buddy Franklin won’t be as pivotal here. Hawthorn has won 13 of its past 14 in Launceston, and inclement weather won’t stop them putting up a decent score an covering the line on offer here with relative ease.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn -56.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (95-76)

Greater Western Sydney v Essendon, Skoda Stadium, Saturday, July 20, 2.10pm AEST

Essendon won’t quickly forget the scare inflicted by the Giants at Etihad Stadium back in round 6 with the visitors leading well into the third term before the Bombers prevailed by 39 points. Beleaguered Essendon coach James Hird won’t let his side make the same mistake here. The 0-15 Giants are coming off a 129-point thrashing at the hands of Sydney and have made seven changes for this game – never a good sign and one of the strongest filters ‘against’ that I factor into betting. In contrast, Essendon regain Stewart Crameri and Leroy Jetta. Already conceding a League worst of 139 points per game, the Giants will struggle to keep Essendon below that mark as they seek to improve their percentage compared to the other top four sides. Rain wasn’t forecast in Sydney today but it’s a wet and windy morning. That said, we’ll stick with the line bet.

Suggested bet: Essendon -66.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (77-116)

Gold Coast v Collingwood, Metricon Stadium, Saturday, July 20, 4.40pm AEST

The Gold Coast Suns benefit from more positive PR than Hugh Jackman, but the hype has now far outstretched the substance. Only poor conversion by the Richmond forwards kept the Suns close last week in Cairns, and Guy McKenna’s side has now lost six of its past seven. Gold Coast lose David Swallow to a knee injury for Saturday night’s visit of Collingwood and while the Magpies will be without Clinton Young and Jarryd Blair, they welcome back Tyson Goldsack. The disharmony off the field certainly didn’t impact Collingwood last week as they weathered Adelaide’s initial challenge before scoring an impressive win. If Travis Cloke had converted half of his chances, the margin would have been closer to 10 goals. Victorian sides haven’t fared well at Metricon this season, but the Magpies will improve that stat with a big win here.

Suggested bet: Collingwood -27.5 (three units @ $1.91)

St Kilda v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, July 20, 7.40pm AEST

The Saints and Power have clashed just six times over the past five years – two of those games were decided by fewer than 10 points while the margin in the other four was beyond nine goals. Port Adelaide won’t be bothered by the margin here as a win will keep them inside the top eight and give them a second win in nine visits to this bogey venue for the club. The Power had no answers to the overall strength of Hawthorn last week, with their pivotal midfielder Hamish Hartlett tagged out of the game. They’ll be without the suspended Kane Cornes here, but regain Justin Westhoff and super-sub Kane Mitchell. Scott Watters has again elected to ‘go with the kids’ via his three changes. Given the respective form and what’s at stake, Port look excellent value.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide WIN (two units @ $1.80)

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions, TIO Stadium, Darwin, Saturday, July 20, 7.40pm AEST

You know things are going bad when a plane carrying players is forced to make an emergency landing, as was the case for Melbourne duo Mark Jamar and Rohan Bail during the week! From a wet and cold Geelong last week, the Demons head to a warm and humid Darwin to face the resurgent Brisbane Lions. Melbourne was completely dominated by the Cats at Simonds Stadium in trying conditions last week, while the Lions underlined their status as fourth quarter specialists by running over the top of North Melbourne. With a very cruisy draw to end 2013, the Lions still fancy their chances of making the finals and won’t want to let the points slip here. Goals are always a premium at Marrara, so the ‘under’ game total looks more appealing than the line.

Suggested bet: Game total -165.5 (one unit @ $1.91)

Racing for July 20

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Kembla Grange (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Gundagai (NSW – abandoned), Townsville (Qld), Darwin (NT), Carnarvon (WA), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Young (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (NSW), Traralgon (Vic).

We’re hoping to have our best of the day sorted early today after the opening event of the eight-race card at Morphettville Parks. Eight 3yos will jump in the 90 Years of Legacy Handicap over 1250m for 0-75 raters, and it’s hard to go past Patrick Payne’s #3 By The Vines. Jamie Kah takes a 2kg claim for the ride on this 3yo gelding, who’s won once and placed third at his two previous jumps. He was a last start winner at Mildura where he set some impressive sectionals and looks well up to this grade. #7 Potiche is the main danger and should fill the quinella.

Note: Heavy rain is falling in Melbourne, with the Flemington track already downgraded to a slow (7) and likely to deteriorate further. Tips may be updated during the day.

Suggested bet: Morphettville R1 #3 By The Vines WIN (two units @ $2.00) WIN (1st), trifecta 3/5-6/5-6 LOSE (3-7-8)

Other tips

Flemington R1 #3 Legcut (E/W) 2nd ($1.80)

Flemington R4 #2 Stick On (E/W) 3rd ($1.70)

Flemington R5 #2 Thumbtacks (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Flemington R7 #4 Aregee McLaren (E/W 1x4)

Rosehill R4 #2 Burbero (win) LOSE (4th)

Rosehill R5 #4 Cradle Me (E/W) 2nd ($2.30)

Rosehill R7 #6 Sacred Flyer (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.30/$1.70)

Rosehill R8 #1 Atomic Force (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Eagle Farm R4 #7 Gotitallwrong (E/W) 2nd ($2.30)

Eagle Farm R8 #6 Lady Echelon (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.60/$1.70)

Eagle Farm R9 #2 Casino Card (E/W) 2nd ($2.10)

Morphettville R3 #1 Little Akie (E/W) 1st ($4.80/$2.40)

Morphettville R4 #5 Bouncing Beverley (win) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R6 #1 You’re Discreet (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)

Belmont R7 #1 Northpace (win) 
Kembla Grange R3 #4 Happy Clapper (E/W) 3rd ($2.30)

CFL (week 4) for July 20

Toronto Argonauts (1-2) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-2), Investors Group Field, Winnipeg, MB, Saturday, July 20, 10.10am

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers' defence continues to dominate with 18 sacks in three games, but the offence has yet to reach that level. Quarterback Buck Pierce aims to elevate his game when the Blue Bombers host the Toronto Argonauts. Winnipeg has just one win to show for its defensive performance as Pierce has thrown four interceptions and completed 53-of-91 passes for a career-low completion percentage of 58.2, while running back Chad Simpson has just 251 combined yards.

Toronto should welcome a chance to face an East Division opponent after dropping two straight to West Division powerhouses in the BC Lions and Saskatchewan Roughriders. Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray is off to an excellent start, but his receiving corps needed plenty of medical attention during last week’s home loss to Saskatchewan. Wide receiver Dontrelle Inman and slotback Chad Owens both looked worse for wear after facing the Roughriders, and the Blue Bombers promise to be just as tough.

Suggested bet: Toronto -4 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total -52 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (35-19)

MLB for July 20

New York Yankees (51-44, 23-21 away) @ Boston Red Sox (58-39, 31-16 home), Fenway Park, Boston, MA, Saturday, July 20, 9.10am

The AL-leading Boston Red Sox are thrilled that 13 of their first 16 games after the All-Star break will be at home. The New York Yankees are mired in fourth place in the AL East and have to be hoping they can duplicate last year’s success at Fenway Park, which they haven’t visited in 2013. These long-time rivals open a three-game set here, and star second baseman Robinson Cano is expected to play for the Yankees after leaving the All-Star game with a leg injury. Boston (58-39) starts a seven-game homestand against New York and second-place Tampa Bay in its first game at Fenway since July 4. The Red Sox lead the Rays by 2 1/2 games in the East. The Yankees (51-44) are six games back as they start a seven-game road stretch that includes a series with Texas.

The Red Sox lead the majors in numerous offensive categories, most notably runs (498), extra-base hits (338) and walks (357). Those are departments in which the injury-plagued Yankees are lagging behind. New York is tied for 20th in runs with 373, is 28th in extra-base hits with 234 and 16th in walks with 273. The Yankees finished third in the major leagues in walks last year. Both teams will start left-handers with Boston’s Felix Doubront (6-3, 3.91 ERA) matching up with Andy Pettitte (7-6, 4.39). Doubront allowed one run over six innings on June 1 to earn an 11-1 victory over the Yankees, giving him a 2-1 mark and 2.32 ERA in five starts against them. Pettitte has gone 2/3 with a 5.35 ERA over his last six starts, although he won the last two. The veteran last pitched at Fenway in 2010. He’s 7-3 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 regular-season starts there.

Suggested bet: Red Sox WIN (four units @ $1.63) WIN (2-4)

Other tips

IL: Braves @ White Sox +1.5 $1.77 LOSE (6-4)

AL: Rays @ Blue Jays +8.5 $2.05 WIN (8-5)

AL: Orioles WIN $2.33 WIN @ Rangers -9.5 $1.81 WIN (3-1)

AL: Tigers WIN $1.76 @ Royals LOSE (0-1)

AL: Indians @ Twins +9 $2.10 LOSE (2-3)

AL: Mariners @ Astros WIN $2.07 LOSE (10-7)

AL: Athletics @ Angels WIN $1.80 WIN (1-4)

NL: Dodgers @ Nationals WIN $1.63 LOSE (3-2)

NL: Pirates WIN $2.14 @ Reds LOSE (3-5)

NL: Marlins @ Brewers -8 $1.90 WIN (0-2)

NL: Padres @ Cardinals -9 $1.91 LOSE (6-9)

NL: Cubs WIN $2.41 @ Rockies WIN (3-1)

NL: Diamondbacks @ Giants WIN $1.82 WIN (0-2)

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