Daily tips for July 21

NRL (R19) for July 21

Penrith Panthers (8-8) v Newcastle Knights (8-8), Centrebet Stadium, Sunday, July 21, 2pm

Ivan Cleary is clearly working his magic with the Panthers, just as he did with the Warriors before leaving that club at the end of 2011. He has introduced an attacking structure and a defensive pattern that he wants the players to stick by, and after it inevitably took a while for everyone to get on the same page, the Panthers are now at the stage where they have settled into a groove and become consistent. The Panthers beat the Eels 17-10, making it three wins on the trot after beating the Dragons (25-10) and Titans (40-18). After losing six of their first eight games, they have won six of their past eight, and their 8-8 record has them in seventh place, on 20 points. Plus, they have a healthy points differential of plus-65, which could be very important after 26 rounds in a competition that is very congested mid-table.

The Knights are in sixth place, also on 20 points with an 8-8 record. Their differential is plus-77 points. But things can change dramatically for either of these teams with even one loss, because the teams running from eighth to 10th (Bulldogs, Titans and Raiders) are each on 20 points as well, and the 11th-placed and in-form Warriors are on 18. The Knights won three of their first four games and five of their first seven. They then lost six of their next seven, but have steadied the ship with wins over the Titans (46-16) and Bulldogs (18-12) at their past two starts. They beat the Panthers 8-6 at home in Round 6. Both teams could make the finals, but it would surprise if they did both get there. So, when they are playing each other, the result becomes critically important. (Preview thanks to NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Panthers 1-12 (two units @ $3.65) LOSE (14-32)

Racing for July 21

Horse racing: Sale (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Warrnambool (Vic – abandoned), Dalby (Qld), Port Augusta (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA), Coffs Harbour (NSW), Hobart (Tas – abandoned), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Launceston (Tas). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Gawler (SA), Sandown Park (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Sale (Vic), Healesville (Vic).

It’s Sawtell Cup day at Coffs Harbour, where the seven-race card is being run on a heavy (10). Those conditions will suit #3 Don’t Get Me Rong is the final event, the St Augustine’s P&F Centenary Daniel Baker Prelude Handicap over 1216m. Most of these have exposed wet track form, as does this 4yo mare with two wins and three placings from six starts on heavy. She was a last start third on a dead (5) at Grafton and last won on a bog track at Murwillumbah on June 2. That form looks good enough for this.

Suggested bet: Coffs Harbour R7 #3 Don’t Get Me Rong E/W (two units) 3rd ($1.40)

Other tips

Sale R3 #12 Zupacharged (win) LOSE (4th)

Sale R4 #2 Max Is Back (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Sale R5 #5 Noisette (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.60)

Sale R8 #2 Right Idea (E/W 1x4) LOSE (4th)

Hawkesbury R7 #3 Poltava (E/W 1x4) 1st ($4.00/$1.60)

Hawkesbury R8 #1 Power Struggle (E/W) 3rd ($2.20)

Coffs Harbour R3 #4 Retirement (E/W) 2nd ($2.00)

Coffs Harbour R6 #2 Ideal Position (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Dalby R2 #4 Seize The Fire (E/W) 1st ($3.80/$1.70)

Port Augusta R4 #1 Highland Henry (win) LOSE (2nd)

Kalgoorlie R6 #7 I’m Easy (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R3 #1 Jenna Highview (win) 1st ($1.30)

Greyhound racing tip: Healesville R8 #7 Walk Hard (win) 1st ($1.70)

AFL (R17) for July 21

Richmond v Fremantle, MCG, Sunday, July 21, 1.10pm AEST

They may sit 10-5 in sixth spot, but the question remains – are the Tigers legit? Damien Hardwick’s side, which continues to struggle against the competition’s elite, will get no better chance to confirm they are the real deal when they host Fremantle to the MCG on Sunday. The Dockers were ultra-impressive in dispatching the Eagles in the Western Derby last week, but will be without Matthew Pavlich (suspension), Aaron Sandilands and Hayden Ballantyne (both injured) for the trek east. Ballantyne kicked four goals back in round 5 when the Dockers prevailed by a point over the Tigers in Perth. Richmond, which has never scored a win over a side coached by Ross Lyon, has named Shane Tuck, Bachar Houli and Sam Lonergan to the extended bench. The Tigers are easily frustrated if not allowed to play their natural game, and I’m more than happy to take Freo straight out here.

Suggested bet: Fremantle WIN (one unit @ $2.15) LOSE (84-57)

Adelaide v Geelong, AAMI Stadium, Sunday, July 21, 2.10pm AEST

Played in wet and cold conditions at Simonds Stadium, Geelong turned in one of the more remarkable performances of the season against Melbourne last week. The Cats restricted Melbourne to just 19 inside 50s on the way to a dominant 68-point victory. The bookies have offered a five-goal line in favour of the Cats here, which looks a gift given Brownlow Medal contender Patrick Dangerfield is out and Scott Thompson is under an injury cloud. Brenton Sanderson could have few complaints with the effort of his side this season, but I think history will show that the Crows had to take a step back in 2013 to take two steps forward next season. The Cats have won eight of their past 10 against the Crows, and seven of their past nine in Adelaide. That looks telling form for this but the line holds plenty of appeal.

Suggested bet: Adelaide +24.5 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +171.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (94-92)

West Coast v Sydney, Patersons Stadium, Sunday, July 21, 4.40pm AEST

The Eagles and Swans played some of the greatest games of the 2000s, and there’s plenty at stake in this one too with West Coast still firmly in the finals race while Sydney have their top four status to protect. The Eagles pushed Freo for three quarters last week but ultimately fell 28 points short while the Swans clinically dispatched of their crosstown rivals by 129 points. It’s been six years since the Eagles have beaten the Swans, who have won four of their past five in Perth. It’s interesting to note that both sides are in the top three for hitouts and clearances, with West Coast’s cause enhanced by the availability of Adam Selwood, Luke Shuey and Sharrod Wellingham. Hard to go against the Swans here, but the Eagles should keep it close enough to make a bet at the line worthy.

Suggested bet: West Coast +11.5 (two units @ $1.91)

CFL (week 4) for July 21

Montreal Alouettes (1-2) @ Calgary Stampeders (2-1), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Sunday, July 21, 9.10am

Anthony Calvillo may be a legend of the CFL but the veteran is feeling the heat this season after being held to 205 passing yards against the Stamps last week as the Alouettes’ struggles on offence continued under new coach Dan Hawkins. Calvillo is completing less than 60 percent of his passes (58.6) for the first time since 2002 and is on pace for his lowest yardage total since 2007. Montreal’s bright spot is its defence, which recorded six sacks against Calgary last week and is led by linebacker Chip Cox, who is tied for the league lead in tackles with 24. Veteran offensive lineman Scott Flory is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn bicep, weakening the already-questionable pass protection in front of Calvillo. Flory, a nine-time CFL all-star, is joined on the sidelines by guard Andrew Woodruff, who suffered a concussion last week. Montreal safety Kyries Hebert is tied with Stampeders defensive lineman Charleston Hughes for second in the league with four sacks.

In contrast, veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn looked comfortable filling in for injured Calgary Stampeders starter Drew Tate in a 22-14 victory at Montreal last week. Glenn will try to repeat that performance when the Stampeders host the Alouettes here. Glenn, who started plenty of games last year – including the Grey Cup final – in place of the oft-injured Tate, completed 22-of-28 passes for 268 yards and got help from running back Jon Cornish, who is second in the league with 304 rushing yards. Brad Sinopoli made the transition from quarterback to receiver look easy last week, catching five passes for 81 yards in his debut, including a highlight-reel, one-handed grab in the third quarter. Sinopoli was added to the roster after Tate got hurt and was called on to start when wide receiver Maurice Price sat out with soreness in his knee. Defensive back Keon Raymond led Calgary with six tackles in his season debut after missing two games with an ankle injury.

Suggested bet: Stampeders -7.5 (1.5 units @ $2.05) WIN, game total +49 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (27-38)

Other tips

Edmonton Eskimos @ BC Lions -9 WIN, game total +47 WIN (21-31)

MLB for July 21

Miami Marlins (35-59, 14-32 away) @ Milwaukee Brewers (39-56, 23-26 home), Miller Park, Milwaukee, WN, Sunday, July 21, 9.10am

Yovani Gallardo aims to get on track and continue his mastery of the visiting Marlins, who try to snap their recent woes against the Milwaukee Brewers. The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a better time for Gallardo (7-8, 4.83 ERA), who struggled through the season’s first 14 weeks. Besides posting the highest ERA of his career, Gallardo has recorded a career-low 7.21 strikeouts per nine innings and is already one loss away from matching his total from all of 2012. In contrast, he was at his best in a 6-1 win at Miami on June 10, yielding four hits over a season-high eight scoreless innings. The right-hander improved to 4-0 in six starts against the Marlins (35-59) with a 1.29 ERA, his lowest mark against any team he has faced more than once.

The Brewers (39-56) have handled the Marlins with relative ease lately, hitting 29 homers during a 15-5 stretch in the series. Carlos Gomez and Juan Francisco provided all the offense with their 15th and 12th homers, respectively, as Milwaukee took yesterday’s opener 2-0. Losers in 12 of 15 at Miller Park, Miami has hit .186 and been limited to seven runs during a four-game road losing streak. The Marlins will try to bounce back behind Nathan Eovaldi (2-0, 2.93), who has produced five quality starts in as many tries since his season debut June 18 due to inflammation in his shoulder. The right-hander walked a season-high four last Friday but managed to limit the damage, yielding three runs and three hits in six innings in an 8-3 victory over Washington. Eovaldi has posted a 3.00 ERA but dropped all three of his starts against the Brewers, two of which came while with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He received one run of support in each of those outings.

Suggested bet: Brewers WIN (2.5 units @ $1.66) WIN, game total -8.5 (1.5 units @ $1.95) WIN (0-6)

Other tips

IL: Braves WIN $2.04 @ White Sox LOSE (6-10)

AL: Rays WIN $1.96 WIN @ Blue Jays -9 $1.91 WIN (4-3)

AL: Yankees @ Red Sox WIN $1.68 LOSE -9.5 $1.91 WIN (5-2)

AL: Tigers @ Royals WIN $2.49 WIN (5-6)

AL: Indians @ Twins WIN $2.13 WIN (2-3)

AL: Mariners WIN $1.75 @ Astros WIN (4-2)

AL: Orioles @ Rangers -9.5 $2.00 LOSE (7-4)

AL: Athletics @ Angels WIN $1.72 WIN (0-2)

NL: Phillies @ Mets WIN $2.25 WIN +7.5 $1.87 WIN (4-5)

NL: Pirates WIN $2.39 LOSE @ Reds -8 $1.85 LOSE (4-5)

NL: Dodgers WIN $2.19 @ Nationals WIN (3-1)

NL: Padres @ Cardinals -1.5 $2.00 LOSE (5-3)

NL: Cubs @ Rockies WIN $1.66 WIN (3-9)

NL: Diamondbacks WIN $2.33 @ Giants LOSE (3-4)

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