Daily tips for December 7

What’s on today

A super Saturday of racing and sport kicks-off with the NCAAF Mid-American Conference championship game featuring Northern Illinois and Bowling Green; there are also 10 games in the NBA and an NHL slate of six games for consideration; closer to home, Australia will be out to press home its advantage over England in the Second Test while the highlight of the day’s racing is the G1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot in Perth; I’ll also have FA Cup, EPL and A-League football selections throughout the day.

Racing for December 7

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Pakenham (Vic), Ballina (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Albury (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bankstown (NSW), Bunbury (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: Richmond (NSW), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Warragul (Vic), The Meadows (Vic), Cannington (WA), The Gardens (NSW).

• Ascot best of the day: R3 #2 Low Tide (E/W) LOSE (U/P) – the focus returns to the west today for the running of the $500,000 Group 1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot where local hope Luckygray is expected to dominate based on his G1 Railway Stakes win here two weeks ago. I’m going way outside the obvious for some value in the 1800m weight for age feature with #3 God Has Spoken. The 7yo entire finished within two lengths of Luckygray in the Railway. He’s up in weight here but finished third in this race in 2012 and is going just as well this year. He should race on the speed from the inside draw and might be tough to run down. My best of the day comes up in race 3, the Aquanita Stakes over 1800m. #2 Low Tide was fourth in the WA Guineas behind Ihtsahymn and is the pick of this bunch.

• Doomben best of the day: R7 #14 Cape Kidnappers (win) SCRATCHED – he split Heart Testa and Zaratone last start over 1100 metres at Rosehill and those two have since quinellaed the Starlight Stakes over the same course and distance. He’s a talented sprinter and gets a significant weight advantage over the likes of Famous Seamus and Facile Tigre here.

• Caulfield best of the day: R3 #3 You Can Dance (E/W) LOSE (U/P) – a BM90 over 1200m for the mares looks ready made for Robbie Griffiths and Glen Boss. After trialling well, she was three lengths eighth in the G3 Mumm Stakes at Flemington over the spring but is way down in class on that here and should be well up on the speed.

• Randwick best of the day: R5 #5 Solemn (win) 1st ($2.60) – this 4yo gelding from the Darley camp won last time out over 1550m here two weeks ago in which he defeated several of these. Barrier 10 isn’t a great impost in the 10-horse field, he’s won up to 2200m while Kerrin McEvoy is back in town after a midweek triumph in Hong Kong to take the ride.

Other confirmed bets

Caulfield R2 #7 Star Beauty (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Caulfield R5 #4 Loveyamadly (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)
Caulfield R6 #1 Don’t Get Excited (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.50/$1.90)
Randwick R3 #5 Tenacitus (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.70)
Randwick R8 #7 Messene (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.00/$1.60)
Doomben R8 #7 Qfighter (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)
Morphettville R2 #1 Lucky Symbol (win) 1st ($2.20)
Newcastle R3 #2 Indian Chief (win) 1st ($2.80)

Leans

Caulfield R1 Exacta 2-5/7 LOSE (2-9)
Caulfield R4 #3 Goldbya (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Caulfield R7 #8 Initiator (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)

Randwick R1 #4 Sinjoren (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.00/$1.60)
Randwick R4 #1 Calming Influence (win) 1st ($3.50)
Randwick R6 #2 Territory (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Randwick R7 #11 Miniature (win) 1st ($2.50)
Doomben R4 #2 Enquare (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.80/$1.40)
Doomben R5 #10 Miss Husson (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Morphettville R3 #4 Dontmentionthewar (E/W 1x4) SCRATCHED
Morphettville R6 #5 Back on Target (win) LOSE (3rd)
Ascot R5 #3 Kerrific (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Newcastle R1 #7 Nisroc (win) 1st ($2.20)
Newcastle R7 #4 Chain Of Events (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R4 #1 No Bettertime (win) 1st ($1.70)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R4 #3 Raven Pearl (win) 1st ($1.90)

College Football (week 15) for December 7

MAC: Bowling Green Falcons (9-3, 7-1 MAC) @ 14 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0, 8-0 MAC), Ford Field, Detroit, MI, Saturday, December 7, 11.30am

I just about choked on my Corn Flakes when I saw the Huskies favoured here by a field goal. They’ve been cash cows for me all season and I’m not about to jump off here. Northern Illinois became the first MAC school to earn a BCS bowl bid in 2012, and has no plans on stopping. The Huskies are the only team aside from FSU and OSU that remain unbeaten, and a win against Bowling Green would lock up a third consecutive conference title, as well. Bowling Green has lost the past three match-ups between the schools, but with the fifth-best defence in the FBS, they will pose a challenge to the Huskies on neutral territory under the roof at Ford Field in Detroit. The Huskies tied a school record with their 12th straight win last Tuesday and have won 24 of their last 25 overall. Another victory would allow Northern Illinois to become the first school since Marshall to win three straight MAC championships. Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its past six games following a SU win while ‘under’ is 10-2 in Northern Illinois’ last 12 neutral site games.

While the Huskies possess a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate in Jordan Lynch (just the fifth player in FBS history with 4000 rushing and 5000 passing yards, pictured) and have 25 straight victories over MAC opponents, the Falcons can take solace in the fact Northern Illinois has won the last two title games by a combined 10 points. Bowling Green, which reached the nine-win mark for the first time since 2004 with Friday’s victory over Buffalo, has outscored its opponents 176-17 during its four-game winning streak. The Falcons are seeking their 11th MAC title and first since 1992. Running back Travis Greene, a converted receiver, ranks second in the conference in rushing behind Lynch with 1422 yards – 23 yards shy of breaking the school record set by Fred Durig in 1951. The Eagles complement the league’s third-best rushing offense with a defense that ranks fifth in the country in scoring defense (13.8 points) and seventh in total defense (296.6 yards). Perhaps even more impressively, Bowling Green has not allowed a second-half point during the last four games. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games.

Confirmed bet

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies -3 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (47-27)

Lean

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies +58 $1.91 WIN (47-27)

NHL for December 7

Anaheim Ducks (18-7-5, 41 pts) @ Chicago Blackhawks (20-6-4, 44 pts), United Center, Chicago, IL, Saturday, December 7, 12.10pm

NHL best of the day: The Chicago Blackhawks have suffered back-to-back regulation losses for the first time this season and will next face the only team they failed to beat during their Stanley Cup-winning campaign. The Anaheim Ducks, though, will also be seeking to avoid a third straight defeat. Chicago (20-6-4) has seen its momentum stall since winning the final six of its seven consecutive road games. The Blackhawks fell 4-3 to Dallas in its return to the United Center on Tuesday then suffered another 4-3 defeat in Minnesota on Thursday. Chicago had a season-low 19 shots (four in the final period) and let Minnesota convert two of its three power-play chances. The Blackhawks have allowed four goals in their last 10 penalty kills. The Ducks, meanwhile, have boasted one of the league's most effective power-play units of late, converting eight of its last 31 opportunities. They scored one of those goals Tuesday against Los Angeles but suffered a 3-2 shootout defeat. Both teams are averaging more than three goals per game and conceding more than 2.5 goals per game and I’m anticipating this game to go over the 5.5 goals on offer.

Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 (one unit @ $1.84) LOSE (3-2)

Other confirmed bets

2.10pm: Phoenix Coyotes (16-8-4, 36 pts) @ Vancouver Canucks (15-10-5, 35 pts) WIN (one unit @ $1.72) WIN (2-3) – Vancouver returns home after going 3-1 on their recent four-game road trip. This will be the first of a five-in-nine home stand for the Canucks. Unfortunately they’ve been much better on the road (10-7) than at home (5-8). The Coyotes have had recent success when playing three-games in four-days. However, they will be facing a Vancouver team that comes off a successful road trip, and will be eager to start winning consistently at home again.

Adding – 11.10am: Detroit Red Wings (14-8-7, 35 pts) @ New Jersey Devils (11-12-6, 28 pts) WIN 1P -1.5 (one unit @ $1.65) WIN (0-1)

Adding – 11.10am: Grand Salami +32.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (31)

Leans

San Jose Sharks WIN $1.61 @ Carolina Hurricanes LOSE (3-5)

Minnesota Wild WIN $1.92 LOSE @ Columbus Blue Jackets -5 $1.96 WIN (0-4)

Anaheim Ducks WIN $2.46 @ Chicago Blackhawks WIN (3-2)

Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames WIN $2.07 LOSE (3-2)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks -5.5 $1.75 WIN (2-3)

NBA for December 7

Toronto Raptors (6-11, 3-5 away) @ Phoenix Suns (10-9, 5-3 home), US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ, Saturday, December 7, 1.10pm

NBA best of the day: It’s easy to take too much stock in a single NBA but I couldn’t help thinking that Toronto’s loss to Golden State on Wednesday was a season-defining result. And not in a positive way. They were up by 27 points in the second half and 18 points going into the fourth quarter, but lost 112-103 as eight-point road dogs when Golden State started lighting up from three-point range. That was the biggest fourth-quarter comeback for the Warriors in more than 50 years. Toronto (6-11) gave up 112 points for the second straight game and is letting opponents shoot 49.8 per cent from the field during a four-game losing streak. Phoenix is among the league's best shooting teams at 46.3 per cent. Goran Dragic (pictured) is at 53.7 over the past five games while averaging 21.8 points. The efficiency stats for the full season suggest that these two teams aren’t that far apart; Toronto is No. 18 on offence and No. 9 on defence, while Phoenix is No. 10 in offence and No. 13 on defence. However, the Raptors are woefully imbalanced on the court, and after that loss to Golden State, they might be psychologically imbalanced, too.

Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns -4 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (97-106)

Other confirmed bets

11.40am: Cleveland Cavaliers (6-12, 1-9 away) @ Atlanta Hawks (10-10, 6-3 home) -6 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (89-108) – Cleveland is 2-18 away from home since the end of February, the last month it won more than two in a row overall. The Cavs are coming off perhaps their best performance, stopping the Nuggets’ seven-game winning streak in a 98-88 victory. Despite being six games under .500, the Hawks haven’t fallen too far from the pack in the Eastern Conference, where only Indiana and Miami have winning records. The Hawks have won five of six at home against the Cavaliers and should improve that to 6-1 here.

12.10pm: Oklahoma City Thunder (13-4, 4-4 away) @ New Orleans Pelicans (9-9, 5-4 home) +5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (109-95) – the Thunder may be the better side here but the Pelicans are a rapidly improving team. They may be without Anthony Davis, who is their best player. Keep in mind that the Pelicans weren’t exactly that good with him in the line-up and have won two of their past three thanks to players like Ryan Anderson (28.3 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game in the last three). They’re 0-5 ATS against teams with winnings records but ready to right that stat here.

2.10pm: Los Angeles Lakers (9-9, 3-5 away) @ Sacramento Kings (4-12, 3-8 home) -3.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (106-100) – there’s still no Kobe Bryant for the Lakers and now there’s no Jordan Farmar who is expected to miss four weeks after tearing his left hamstring. Pau Gasol is also below 100 per cent fitness due to a sprained ankle. The Kings (4-12) have lost five in a row, though three of those defeats were by a combined five points and another was in overtime. DeMarcus Cousins is out for the Kings but I think they can pinch a result here.

Adding – 11.40am: Orlando Magic (6-12, 1-7 away) @ New York Knicks (4-13, 1-7 home) +195 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (83-121)

Leans

Philadelphia 76ers +7 $1.91 @ Charlotte Bobcats LOSE (88-105)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards +192 $1.91 WIN (109-105)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks +195.5 $1.91 WIN (89-108)

Denver Nuggets -4 $1.91 @ Boston Celtics LOSE (98-106)

Golden State Warriors +4.5 $1.91 @ Houston Rockets LOSE (83-105)

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers -11.5 $1.91 WIN (98-130)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings + 202 $1.91 WIN (106-100)


Another week on the punting Callander

Welcome to this regular feature of the Last At Cannington blog highlighting some of the stories and results that have caught my punting eye over the past seven days. By Sean Callander.

The countdown to the 2014 World Cup finals in Brazil is on in earnest with two of the most important announcements scheduled for this week – both of which are eagerly awaited by punters. The draw for the 32 nations contesting the tournament will be held on Saturday (3am AEDT) with the eight seeded nations comprising Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay and Switzerland. Yep, Switzerland! Earlier in the week, the official game ball was revealed. So what? The task of designing the World Cup football has been the domain of adidas since 1970.

Four years ago, they served up Jabulani for South Africa 2010, which proved to be little more than a glorified balloon and helped contribute to the second lowest scoring World Cup finals in history (behind Italy 1990). I’m expecting that players will find it easier to hit the target next June using Brazuca (pictured), the official game ball for World Cup 2014. Brazuca seems to be a direct response to the criticism from players of specific positions in past tournaments. In 2010 it came from goalkeepers. In 2006, some players thought that the ball favoured strikers, particularly from set-pieces. Old-style soccer balls comprised 30 panels that were stitched together.

Over the years, the number of panels has been reduced (Brazuca has six) but the surface of the ball reveals a dimpled-pattern not dissimilar to a basketball. The surface aberrations where panels were sown together on older balls contributed to the flight dynamics of the ball, providing some surface variations to grab the air and create the change in pressure required for the ball to curve. As has been the case for the past 40 years, nations that don’t have sponsorship agreements with adidas will be denied access to the ball until the commencement of the tournament! Watch for markets on the total goals for the tournament to be available soon.

• Regular visitors to this blog will be familiar with my endless frustration regarding the preparation of tracks for thoroughbred meetings in Melbourne and Sydney. So ahead of the Villiers Stakes meeting on December 14, it was great to watch the new Kensington track at Randwick pass its first test. Despite almost 100mm of rain falling at Randwick during the week before the first meeting, the all-weather surface was rated in the good category. The track recently underwent a $1.7 million renovation before it was reopened for racing in October.

My Sydney clocker relayed these comments regarding the ‘Kenso’ circuit: “Fast times – our clock counter will need to be reset! Reduced track impact, after eight races the track still looked fresh; reduced track divots evident from little activity from staff repairing divots between races; horses came from all over to win, confidence from all over the width of the track; very happy jockeys and trainers, with positive comments as the jockeys leave the track after racing.”

Hopefully the refurbishment at Caulfield will be as successful – just a shame we have to wait another 12 months. The Caulfield course proper will undergo a full renovation following next year’s Caulfield Cup. The resurfacing will be exactly the same as the 2005 project, and will mean racing won’t return to the track until the Blue Diamond meeting in 2015. The proposed Caulfield resurfacing follows similar renovations at Sandown, where racing is scheduled to return in February 2014.

• It’s being called the greatest finish to a College Football game. Ever. Let’s set the scene – it’s the battle for the Iron Bowl between the nation’s top ranked side Alabama and their fierce cross-state rivals Auburn (ranked 4). The public address announcer at the Jordan-Hare Stadium had already declared the game 28-28 at the end of regulation as Alabama kicker Adam Griffith’s 57-yard field goal attempt started to fall short as time expired in the fourth quarter. Then Chris Davis (pictured below) intervened.

He caught the ball about nine yards deep in the end zone. He sprinted down the left sideline and cut back with nothing but teammates around him to return the missed field-goal attempt more than 100 yards for a touchdown. Incredibly, it’s the second time Auburn has snatched a dramatic win at the last gasp this season. A deflected 73-yard touchdown pass from Nick Marshall to Ricardo Louis dubbed "The Immaculate Deflection" with 25 seconds left handed them victory over Georgia.

One punter is riding this streak like a bucking bronco. Former Auburn student Mark Skiba wagered $100 for Auburn to win the BCS Championship, at the odds of 500-1! “After the A&M game, when you sat down and looked at our remaining schedule, you could see that we had a good shot at going into the Alabama game with only one loss. The A&M game was definitely the turning point in the season. Then there was the Georgia game. For that game to end the way it did, you start to think about mystical words like destiny and fate. And now we have the Alabama game. That's destiny and fate on steroids!”

Final word: When it comes to novelty bets, no-one beats Paddy Power. I came across this classic relating to the method that Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will use to leave the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, where he is currently holed up. Options include UK police car (4/5), Ecuadorian state car (5/4), helicopter (8/1), diplomatic bag (20/1), laundry van (66/1), tunnel (100/1), hot air balloon (150/1) and jet pack (500/1). I’d be interested to see the price on a wooden box!

 • Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.