Daily tips for December 5

What’s on today

It may be a random Thursday on the sports calendar but there’s still plenty of action highlighted by nine EPL games & I’m expecting Newcastle to leave Swansea with at least one point as my best of the day; San Antonio and Minnesota head to Mexico City as the most intriguing match-up on the eight-game NBA card; the Flyers head to injury-riddled Detroit in the pick of the three NHL games while the Second Ashes Test kicks-off at the Adelaide Oval with Australia leading the series (1-0).


Racing for December 5

Horse racing: Warrnambool (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Pinjarra (WA), Queanbeyan (NSW). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Northam (WA), Penrith (NSW), Swan Hill (Vic). Greyhound racing: Angle Park (SA), Maitland (NSW), Warrnambool (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Sandown Park (Vic), Shepparton (Vic), Traralgon (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Confirmed bets

Warrnambool R4 #6 Sevva Nights (win) 1st ($1.70)

Gosford R2 #7 Negociant (win) 1st ($1.30)

Gosford R8 #1 Target In Sight (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Queanbeyan R3 #2 Oh So Adorable (win) 1st ($2.10)

Leans

Warrnambool R3 #3 Megamind (E/W) 2nd ($3.40)

Gosford R4 #4 Anfitrona (win) 1st ($2.60)

Gosford R6 #1 Southern Girl (win) LOSE (2nd)

Queanbeyan R5 #7 Kiss This (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rockhampton R1 #2 Casino Benjo (win) 1st ($3.10)

Rockhampton R7 #5 Vandalised (win) 1st ($2.90)

Harness racing tip: Swan Hill R3 #4 Gollahman (win) 1st ($1.30)

Greyhound racing tip: Albion Park R3 #6 Surfin’ Kawati (win) LOSE (U/P)

NHL for December 5

Philadelphia Flyers (12-13-2, 26 pts) @ Detroit Red Wings (14-7-7, 35 pts), Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI, Thursday, December 5, 12.10pm

NHL best of the day: The Detroit Red Wings haven’t seemed to miss injured star Pavel Datsyuk lately, though they may be presented with a whole new set of challenges with Henrik Zetterberg out for an extended period of time. Zetterberg will miss at least the next two weeks, starting here against the Philadelphia Flyers as Detroit looks to extend its winning streak to five games. Datsyuk, who has a team-best 12 goals, has been sidelined for the past four contests due to a head injury and is doubtful for this. Zetterberg will miss time with a herniated disc. The forward, who leads the team with 30 points (11 goals, 18 assists) and is tied for first on the Wings at plus-12, could be out even longer. Philadelphia went 8-2-1 in its previous 11 before falling 2-0 to Minnesota in its second stop on a six-game road trip. It scored fewer than three non-shootout goals for the fifth straight time and its 57 goals are among the fewest in the league. Ray Emery made 19 saves Monday, but Steve Mason (6-1-1 with a 1.72 GAA in his last eight, pictured) could start this contest.

Philadelphia Flyers WIN @ Detroit Red Wings (one unit @ $2.13) WIN (6-3)

Leans

Montreal Canadiens @ New Jersey Devils -5 $1.80 LOSE (4-3)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Detroit Red Wings -5 $1.91 LOSE (6-3)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Calgary Flames +5.5 $1.80 LOSE (1-4)

NBA for December 5

Oklahoma City Thunder (13-3, 4-3 away) @ Portland Trail Blazers (15-3, 7-1 home), Moda Center, Portland, OR, Thursday, December 5, 2.10pm

NBA best of the day: After beating the NBA-best Indiana Pacers, the Portland Trail Blazers host another league powerhouse – Oklahoma City – here. Seeking a seventh straight home win, Portland is also out to avoid an eighth consecutive loss to the Thunder. The visitors have won eight in a row, most recently edging the Kings in Sacramento on Tuesday night. NBA leading scorer Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 27 points and 11 boards against Sacramento. Russell Westbrook, who has missed three games with knee issues, complements Durant's impressive totals, averaging 20.6 points for Oklahoma City. Serge Ibaka adds 13.9 points and a team-high 9.5 rebounds. Portland’s success against Indiana came despite a season-low five 3-pointers, as LaMarcus Aldridge became the focal point of the offense and the Blazers tied a season high with 29 successful free throw tries on 33 attempts. Aldridge leads Portland, averaging 22.7 points and 9.6 rebounds, while Damian Lillard adds 20.6 points and a team-high 5.7 assists. The Blazers are also among the top five teams in the league in proficiency from behind the arc. The key numbers favour Oklahoma City given Portland’s form in recent seasons, but the favourite is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (104-111)

Other confirmed bets

11.40am: San Antonio Spurs (15-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (9-10) -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) POSTPONED – this is the NBA's 21st game south of the border but first in the regular season since Dallas faced Houston in 1997. This is the first time playing in Mexico for Minnesota and the fifth for San Antonio. The Timberwolves jumped out to a 5-2 start following a fourth consecutive last-place finish in the Northwest Division last season, but they’ve surrendered an average of 109.2 points on 51.6 per cent shooting while dropping four of five. The altitude in Mexico City won’t help the Wolves on defence either.

11.40am: Los Angeles Clippers (12-6, 4-4 away) @ Atlanta Hawks (9-10, 5-3 home) -202 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (97-107) – the Clippers make the first stop on a seven-game road trip in Atlanta against a Hawks’ line-up that has lost five of six. Los Angeles averages 100.5 points on the road as opposed to their 111.2 scoring average at the STAPLES Center. The Hawks managed more than 100 points in back-to-back games in Washington and San Antonio but had averaged 89.7 in its previous seven. I like the total to stay under the 202 points on offer.

12.10pm: Phoenix Suns (9-9, 4-6 away) @ Houston Rockets (13-6, 8-2 home) +212.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (97-88) – the Rockets go for their longest home winning streak in nearly three years. Houston was on a roll, winning five in a row and eight of nine before falling 109-103 at Western Conference-worst Utah. They’re 8-2 at the Toyota Center, winning six in a row while averaging 113.3 points and shooting 47.5 per cent from 3-point range. The Suns were woeful in the second half against Memphis yesterday but should be able to contribute enough to the send the total ‘over’ here.

Leans

Denver Nuggets -4 $1.91 @ Cleveland Cavaliers LOSE (88-98)

Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 $1.91 LOSE (105-98)

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans -207 $1.91 WIN (100-97)

Indiana Pacers -8 $1.91 @ Utah Jazz WIN (95-86)


Cricket (Ashes Series) for December 5-9

Second Test: Australia v England, Adelaide Oval (artist's impression of completed redevelopment ), Adelaide, Thursday, December 5, 11am

Much of the talk since Australia’s thrashing of England in the First Test has been about “the talk”. That’s a shame, as the focus should have been on the Aussies’ methodical and ruthless performance at the Gabba. However, it’s far too simplistic to assume that the win is a sea change in the never-ending battle between these two sides, further enforced with the departure of Jonathan Trott due to illness. While only three teams have come back after losing the First Test to win in Australia, there are plenty of reasons to believe England have it in them to become the fourth. England boasts a startling record in second Tests since Andy Flower took over in 2009. They have won 13, drawn four and lost only one of 18 second Tests. And even that defeat, to Pakistan in the UAE, was a game England dominated until the disastrous fourth innings when they were rolled for 72 chasing just 144 for a series-levelling victory. In nine second Tests following an opening defeat or draw, England have won five and drawn three. The drop-in pitch at Adelaide has been the subject of much speculation. Putting too much store in pre-match pitch assessment is foolish, but most reports expect a flat but dry surface. Coach Darren Lehmann’s decision to do away with the rotation policy means Australia enters this Test with an unchanged side, but I want to see consistency from the likes of Chris Rogers, Dave Warner, Shane Watson, George Bailey and Mitchell Johnson before playing the Aussies too heavily. While the draw is favoured with conditions expected to assist the batsmen, the brittle nature of Australia’s line-up and England’s ongoing struggle to reach 400 mean it’s there to be taken on.

Confirmed bet

Australia v England DNB (one unit @ $2.25)

Leans

Second Test top run scorer Michael Clarke (0.5 units @ $6.00)

Second Test top wicket taker James Anderson (0.5 units @ $7.50)

EPL for December 5

Swansea City (4-3-6, 15 pts) v Newcastle United (7-2-4, 23 pts), Liberty Stadium, Swansea, Wales, Thursday, December 5, 6.50am

EPL best of the day: It’s been a good few weeks for Newcastle, who travel to Swansea having won their past four Premier League fixtures. With seven goals scored and just two conceded last month, Newcastle will be confident of extending their unbeaten run against a Swansea side who haven’t been helped by injuries to key players including Michu and Wilfried Bony. Swans manager Michael Laudrup (pictured) must also decide whether first-choice keeper Michel Vorm is fit enough to return in place of Gerhard Tremmel. After a solid start to the season, the challenge of balancing EPL and Europa League campaigns appears to be stretching Swansea’s stocks. Newcastle have won four games in a row for the first time since April 2012, when they won six consecutive games en route to a fifth-place finish in the Premier League. Loic Remy has scored eight goals in his past nine Premier League appearances and also assisted a goal in the weekend victory over West Brom. Newcastle have also taken the lead in nine of their 13 Premier League games this season, going on to win seven of them. I can’t envisage the Magpies returning to the north-east without at least a point and, more likely, all three from this trip to Wales.

Swansea City v Newcastle United – double chance (one unit @ $1.67) LOSE (3-0)

Other confirmed bets

6.40am: Stoke City (3-4-6, 13 pts) v Cardiff City (3-4-6, 13 pts) -1.5 (one unit @ $3.00) WIN (0-0) – neither side is in great shape – Stoke has just one win from their last 10 Premier League matches while Cardiff has only one win from seven. There have been just five goals scored in the past five league games played at the Britannia Stadium. The sides have only met four times before in the top flight, with the most recent encounter a goalless draw at Stoke's Victoria Ground on February 14, 1953. A similar scoreline wouldn’t surprise, although I have a slight lean to the Bluebirds here.

6.40am: Southampton (6-4-3, 22 pts) v Aston Villa (4-4-5, 16 pts) double chance (one unit @ $2.15) WIN (2-3) – Back-to-back away defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea hardly spell crisis but Southampton go is in need of a result if they want to maintain their strong start to the campaign. However, in Villa they face a side who seemingly prefer to play away from home, one set up well to hit teams on the break with the likes of Gabby Agbonlahor providing pace aplenty. Third-choice keeper Paulo Gazzaniga starts for the Saints who will also l be without key midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin.

6.40am: Manchester United (6-4-3, 22 pts) v Everton (6-6-1, 24 pts) BTS (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (0-1) – It may be just another three points to play for, just another day at the office, but former Everton boss David Moyes would not be human if he didn't feel this was a special day. Manchester United have won 16 of 21 Premier League home games against Everton, with four matches drawn. But Roberto Martinez has already steered Everton into the top six and Romelu Lukaku is one of only three players to have scored a Premier League hat-trick against Manchester United.

Leans

Liverpool v Norwich City +3.5 $2.35 WIN (5-1)

Manchester United v Everton (double chance) $2.15 WIN (0-1)

Arsenal -1 $1.60 v Hull City WIN (2-0)

Stoke City v Cardiff City (0-1) $9.00 LOSE (0-0)

Sunderland v Chelsea -1 $2.45 PUSH (3-4)

Swansea City v Newcastle United WIN $3.30 LOSE (3-0)

Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur WIN $1.67 WIN (1-2)
West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City WIN $1.62 WIN (2-3)

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