Daily tips for December 24

What’s on today

It’s an uncommonly huge day on the sports calendar with a full card of 14 NHL games before the three-day Christmas break, while there are 11 NBA games on the slate before a day’s break on Christmas Eve; it’s Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl’s day in College Football while Monday Night Football features the battle of the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers; the weekend’s EPL action wraps-up with a marquee match-up between Arsenal and Chelsea while I’ll start my tips for a massive Christmas-Boxing Day line-up over the next 24 hours, GL punters!


Racing for December 24

Note: No racing tips will be posted today while no racing is scheduled tomorrow (Christmas Day). I'll be back with a full preview of the packed Boxing Day program on Thursday.

NFL (week 16) for December 24

Atlanta Falcons (4-10, 1-6 away) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 5-2 home), Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA, Tuesday, December 24, 12.40pm

With a home playoff game unlikely, the San Francisco 49ers probably are playing their final game at Candlestick Park on Monday night when they host the Atlanta Falcons. This iconic venue has been the backdrop to many memorable moments since it opened in 1960 – everything from the Beatles’ final ever live concert to the Loma Prieta earthquake prior to the game 3 of the 1989 World Series. And its finale is an appropriately important game – the 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win or an Arizona loss. San Francisco again boasts one of the league's top defences and is coming off a dominant performance in a 33-14 win at Tampa Bay last week. The passing game hasn't had to do too much thanks to the NFL's fifth-ranked ground game with Frank Gore (1017 yards, 8 TDs) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (449 yards, 3 TDs) leading the way. The receiving corps keeps getting stronger, though, with Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham back from injuries to complement Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis. The 49ers are 11-0 when Kaepernick starts and has a rating of 100 or better.

Atlanta has won four straight meetings in the regular season, but the Falcons have fallen precipitously since their 28-24 home loss to the 49ers in last season's NFC Championship and are tied for the third-worst record in the league. Atlanta’s season never got off the ground in large part because the running game never got going, but the Falcons have won two of their last three and are trying to salvage something. The defense has forced 11 turnovers in that span after causing eight through the first 11 games. The passing game has been a bright spot, but 12 of Matt Ryan’s 14 interceptions have come on the road. The Falcons are 6-0 in games played on the West Coast under coach Mike Smith but are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in San Francisco. Allowing big plays remains a problem. Atlanta, outgained 476-243 last week, has given up 59 plays of 20 yards or more to rank in the bottom half of the league. The 49ers have allowed 36, second-fewest in the NFL.

Confirmed bets

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (24-34)
Total rushing yards – Frank Gore +82.5 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (97yds)

Leans

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers +46.5 $1.91 WIN (24-34)
Michael Crabtree (SF) to score a touchdown $1.95 LOSE (NO)

NBA for December 24

Atlanta Hawks (15-12, 4-8 away) @ Miami Heat (20-6, 13-2 home), AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Tuesday, December 24, 11.40am

As NBA sides prepare for a day’s break for Christmas Day’s five-game special (all games will be played back-to-back), today’s line-up features 11 match-ups with my best of the day coming at the home of the reigning champions where the Atlanta Hawks have routinely struggle offensively when facing the Heat. But given their recent offensive efforts, coupled with the Heat's lacklustre defensive performance their last time out, and the Hawks could have better luck here as they seek to extend a season-high winning streak to four games and avoid a ninth straight loss to Miami. The Hawks (15-12) are starting to grasp first-year coach Mike Budenholzer’s ball-movement lessons. They already average a NBA-best 25.6 assists, but have been even better at distributing the basketball during their win streak, averaging 34.7. Not surprisingly, they’re shooting 52.9 per cent and averaging 118.7 points – 17.0 better than their season average. Jeff Teague (pictured) is averaging 14.7 points and 11.0 assists during the win streak and Al Horford is shooting 65.1 per cent and averaging 23.6 points in his last five games – 5.4 better than his team-leading average.

Although the Hawks have been excelling offensively, they had one of their worst showings in their lone meeting with the Heat on November 19, turning the ball over 24 times in a 104-88 loss. The Hawks have lost eight straight to Miami, and are averaging 87.6 points and 18.7 turnovers in the last seven. They haven’t scored more than 93 in the series since a 116-109 triple-overtime loss on January 5, 2012. Miami (20-6) has been difficult to score on this season, but defense was an afterthought in Friday’s match-up with Sacramento. The Heat allowed an opponent season-high 58.1 per cent shooting and let the Kings score 60 points in the paint. Despite going through the motions defensively, coach Erik Spoelstra wasn’t too upset as his offense shot 61.4 per cent and made 10 of 23 shots from beyond the arc in a 122-103 win. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have both stepped up during Miami's win streak. Bosh is shooting 60.7 per cent to average 20.5 points while Wade is hitting 60.0 per cent of his shots to average 25.8.

Confirmed bets

Atlanta Hawks +8.5 @ Miami Heat (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (119-121)

New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic +191.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (103-98)

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets -208 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (89-81)

Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 @ Phoenix Suns (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (90-117)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings +209.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (113-100)

Dallas Mavericks +4 @ Houston Rockets (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (111-104)

Leans

Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Bobcats -186 $1.91 LOSE (110-111)

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers +203.5 $1.91 WIN (115-92)

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat +207.5 $1.91 WIN (119-121)

Indiana Pacers -7 $1.91 @ Brooklyn Nets WIN (103-86)

Utah Jazz +6.5 $1.91 @ Memphis Grizzlies LOSE (94-104)

Toronto Raptors +11.5 $1.91 @ San Antonio Spurs LOSE (99-112)

New Orleans Pelicans -1 $1.91 @ Sacramento Kings WIN (113-100)

NHL for December 24

Minnesota Wild (20-13-5, 45 pts) @ Philadelphia Flyers (16-16-4, 34 pts), Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA, Tuesday, December 24, 11.40am

It’s a rare full card of NHL games today with 14 match-ups ahead of a three-day break for Christmas. There are several warm road favourites to go with a handful of sides for which the Christmas break can‘t come quick enough. One such team is the Minnesota Wild, who head into the break after this testing clash against the high-scoring Flyers. Philadelphia won't see their home ice for much of the next two-plus weeks, but they will get a chance to secure their longest win streak at the Wells Fargo Center in eight seasons before heading into the Christmas break by adding to the Minnesota Wild’s recent woes. Philadelphia will also try to bounce back from a lacklustre effort in its most recent game. Not even the return of veteran center Vincent Lecavalier could help the Flyers on Saturday, and they gave up four third-period goals in a 6-3 loss in Columbus. The Flyers have scored three or more goals in a season-high four consecutive games but couldn't score in their only other match-up with Minnesota this season. Josh Harding made 21 saves in a 2-0 home victory for the Wild on December 2.

However, Harding is out until after the break as he adjusts his medication for multiple sclerosis. Harding is 18-5-3 with a league-best 1.51 goals-against average, and his absence has been noticeable in the Wild’s past two games. Minnesota (20-12-5) has given up a combined nine goals in back-to-back losses and its five allowed in a loss in Pittsburgh on Thursday was the most since a 6-2 defeat in Montreal on November 19. The Wild have also struggled to score of late with 21 goals during a 5-8-1 stretch. Jason Pominville had the only score in a 4-1 loss at the New York Rangers on Sunday. Minnesota has also been outscored 24-8 while going 1-6-1 in its last eight road games. Minnesota is 2-6-0 all-time in Philadelphia and was routed 5-1 in its most recent visit January 17, 2012. The Flyers, however, will have to make some changes to their defence before this one. Erik Gustafsson is expected to miss the next two weeks with a sprained left knee and it’s unknown if fellow blueliner Nicklas Grossmann will return from an illness that kept him out of Saturday’s loss.

Confirmed bets

Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings -5 (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (5-2)

Anaheim Ducks WIN @ Washington Capitals (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (3-2)

Pittsburgh Penguins WIN @ Ottawa Senators (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (0-5)

New York Islanders @ Detroit Red Wings -5.5 (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (3-0)

Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers +5 (one unit @ $1.77) PUSH (1-4)

New Jersey Devils @ Chicago Blackhawks WIN NT (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (2-5)

Phoenix Coyotes WIN @ Buffalo Sabres (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (1-2)

Leans

Anaheim Ducks -1.5 $3.35 @ Washington Capitals LOSE (3-2)
Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $1.91 @ Florida Panthers WIN (6-1)

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Carolina Hurricanes WIN $1.80 LOSE (4-3)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Rangers WIN $1.77 WIN (1-2)
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Ottawa Senators +5.5 $1.87 LOSE (0-5)

Boston Bruins WIN $1.74 @ Nashville Predators WIN (6-2)

New York Islanders @ Detroit Red Wings WIN NT $1.90 LOSE (3-0)

Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers WIN $1.77 WIN (1-4)
St Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames WIN $2.38 WIN (3-4)
Winnipeg Jets WIN $2.00 @ Edmonton Oilers LOSE (2-6)
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks WIN $1.55 WIN (4-5)

EPL for December 24

Arsenal (11-2-3, 35 points) v Chelsea (10-3-3, 33 points), Emirates Stadium, London, England, Tuesday, December 24, 7am

Chelsea has already won at the Emirates this season (a League Cup tie back in October). That took to nine the sequence of matches in which Arsene Wenger (pictured) has tried and failed to beat Jose Mourinho and meant that Chelsea, under a variety of managers, have lost only twice in their last 11 visits to the Emirates. But it’s equally easy to forget that Arsenal came out of last weekend’s round of Premier League matches still on top of the table. The nature of their defeat at Manchester City has meant Wenger’s team has been almost dismissed as contenders. Win, lose or draw, Arsenal and Chelsea are likely to be competing for the title well into the spring at least. Arsenal defender Laurent Koscielny is out, Jack Wilshere starts a two-game ban for misconduct, but Lukas Podolski is available after a hamstring injury. Chelsea right-back Branislav Ivanovic returns from suspension, meaning Cesar Azpilicueta reverts to left-back and Ashley Cole will drop to the bench while Michael Essien is serving a one-game ban.

Scoring goals is one of Chelsea’s more obvious difficulties. Prior to the weekend, there were 11 players who have scored more EPL goals than Chelsea’s top scorer (Eden Hazard with six). No striker has scored an away league goal for Chelsea in 2013. Fernando Torres was the last centre forward to net on the road for the Blues, doing so in a 3-1 win at Sunderland on December 8, 2012. The Blues have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 EPL matches. The Gunners' 6-3 defeat at Manchester City last week was their heaviest league loss since the 8-2 thrashing at Manchester United in August 2011.  They conceded as many goals at the Etihad Stadium as in their previous 11 EPL games.  Despite scoring frequently at home, Arsenal’s games against top half teams (Liverpool, Everton, Spurs and Southampton) have resulted in fewer than three goals total. Chelsea has only won three of their eight away games this campaign (Norwich, West Ham and Sunderland), and they are yet to register an away win at a top half side.

Confirmed bet

Arsenal v Chelsea -2.5 (one unit @ $2.05) WIN (0-0)

Lean

Arsenal v Chelsea WIN $3.10 LOSE (0-0)

College Football for December 24

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl: East Carolina Pirates (9-3, 6-2 C-USA) v Ohio Bobcats (7-5, 4-4 MAC), Tropicana Field, St Petersburg, FL, Tuesday, December 24, 6am

Bowl season is a bit of a mystery. There are 35 of them this year, with four more scheduled to be added next year. But as long as sponsors yearn for a slice of the market, demand will be greater than supply. They also throw together an odd mix of teams as shown by the superbly named Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl line-up of East Carolina and Ohio. Two experienced, productive quarterbacks will bring their high-octane offenses to St Petersburg. Junior Shane Carden threw 55 touchdown passes – 19 to standout junior receiver Justin Hardy – in the last two seasons for East Carolina, which averaged 40.4 points this season. Ohio senior Tyler Tettleton recorded 66 scoring strikes in three years at the helm and the Bobcats scored 38 or more five times in the last nine games. A key will be which team can get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game. The Pirates have registered 35 sacks, tied for 14th in the nation, and allowed 28 while Ohio boasts 34 sacks and has given up 16.

East Carolina is looking to snap a four-game losing streak in bowls while trying to improve an 8-10 overall record. Ohio plays in its fifth straight bowl and has won the last two, including 45-14 over Louisiana-Monroe at the Independence Bowl in 2012. Hardy averaged 8.8 receptions (fifth in the nation) for 1218 yards and eight scores and is only 19 receiving yards shy of 3000 in his career. If Ohio decides to devote extra attention to Hardy, receiver Isaiah Jones (54 receptions, 556 yards) or running back Vintavious Cooper (995 rushing yards, 11 TDs) can hurt the Bobcats. The Bobcats snapped a three-game losing streak with 461 yards offence in a 51-23 home victory over Massachusetts in the regular-season finale. Tettleton has completed 33-of-48 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in his two bowl outings, and he'll look often for Donte Foster, who has 63 catches and 858 yards this season. The Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss while the ‘over’ is 4-1 in Pirates last five Bowl games.

Confirmed bet

East Carolina Pirates v Ohio Bobcats +62 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (37-20)

Lean

East Carolina Pirates -14 v Ohio Bobcats $1.91 WIN (37-20)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.