Daily tips for December 20

What’s on today

Local sport takes centre stage today with the opening game of the KFC T20 Big Bash League, featuring crosstown rivals the Melbourne Renegades and Melbourne Stars; round 11 of the A-League also kicks-off tonight with league leaders Brisbane strongly favoured over Newcastle; San Antonio heads to Oakland to face the Golden State Warriors in one of just NBA games scheduled while the highlight of the NHL card is also out west as the Sharks journey down to LA to take on the high-flying Kings; GL punters!


A-League (round 11) for December 20

Brisbane Roar (8-0-2, 24 points) v Newcastle Jets (4-3-3 15 points), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Friday, December 20, 8pm

The Brisbane Roar could record their 100th win in A-League history and avenge one of just two defeats in their 2013-14 campaign as they host Newcastle to Suncorp Stadium tonight. Brisbane were leading 1-0 and looking comfortable away to the Jets in round 6, before the heavy rain and Adam Taggart's brilliance helped the home side pinch the three points. Errors by skipper Matt Smith and James Donachie at centre-back have not been repeated since in an orange shirt, as the Roar have bounced back to win their last four. It's easy to forget Brisbane have been without Shane Stefanutto for weeks now, while Jade North has been in and out of the team through injury. Liam Miller has spent time on the sidelines, and even previously ever-present goalkeeper Michael Theo missed some action. But apart from that surprise loss in Newcastle last month, the Roar have barely even blinked in their absence, with Corey Brown, James Donachie, Matt Acton and Jack Hingert shining.

The Jets meanwhile suffered a 1-0 loss at home to Western Sydney, and will be hard pressed to respond away to the league leaders. They are weakened by injuries to two of their best attackers with Emile Heskey and Nathan Burns both out injured although word is Burns may play. The on-loan forward finally got the reward for his good early season form away to Melbourne Victory in Round 9, scoring both of his team's goals in a 2-1 win. He was then unexpectedly ruled out for the home game against Western Sydney on Saturday, and the Jets suffered in the final third, lacking his efficient ball use and penetration. The Jets are consistently inconsistent with four wins, three draws and three losses. The Roar are a perfect four from four at Suncorp so far this season and whilst the Jets have been a bit of a bogey side to the Roar in the recent past (two wins and a draw from past three matches) the home side look good things here.

Confirmed bets

Brisbane Roar WIN v Newcastle Jets (two units @ $1.50)
Besart Berisha to score anytime (one unit @ $1.65)

Leans

Brisbane Roar v Newcastle Jets -2.5 $2.10

Cricket (Big Bash League) for December 20

Melbourne Stars v Melbourne Renegades, MCG, Friday, December 20, 7.45pm

As regulars to this blog will have noticed, I rarely offer cricket tips. There are a number of reasons. Test cricket is best to bet in-play. The ebbs and flows over a five-day contest are generally too great to predict with a pre-post bet. But the biggest problem I find with cricket in the modern era is that there’s too much of it. Take a fringe first XI player on an ACB contract. There’s potential for national representation in the T20, one-day and Test arenas, along with domestic Shield games and one-day games. But the big money lies in T20 competitions like the IPL, which dwarf the cash on offer at a domestic level. Where do this player’s loyalties and efforts truly lie? Does victory truly matter to a player that can potentially wear so many hats? Overlay the prospect of match- and spot-fixing in many of these meaningless competitions, and it shouldn’t be hard for punters to look elsewhere to invest their funds – unless they’re in on the fix!

Having collected two years of data on the KFC T20 Big Bash League (BBL), several things are apparent – primarily, players mostly take this tournament seriously, batting second in the opening three weeks of the tournament is hugely advantageous and, crucially, match-fixing appears not to be a defining feature of this competition! The 2013-14 BBL season kicks-off tonight at the MCG, with the Melbourne derby featuring the Renegades and Stars. The Renegades are considered the poor cousin of the pair but they lost only once in 2012-13 but couldn't convert in the finals. Peter Siddle has been picked up along with James Pattinson (when fit) and Mohammed Hafeez who was the first player to score 1000 T20 runs and take 40 plus wickets and is the leading run scorer for Pakistan in T20s. Better still, the Renegades have picked up relatively unknown Englishman Jos Buttler, a wicket keeper batsman who burst onto the International scene recently with 50 off just 17 balls against NZ.

Veteran spinner Muttiah Muralitharan (pictured) still has every trick in the book, despite being 41 years old and the Renegades will be looking to him and Fawad Ahmed to tie the opposition in knots. The Stars are the glamour side but their line-up is somewhat ageing and full of players who may be called upon for limited overs International cricket in James Faulkner, Matthew Wade, Glenn Maxwell and even Luke Wright. Cameron White, David Hussey and Brad Hodge have all shown how capable they are with the bat on numerous occasions, and if all manage to click, the Stars look full of runs. Add the aforementioned Wright, all rounders Faulkner and Maxwell, plus wicket-keeper batsman Wade and it will be no surprise if the Stars are regularly posting 170-180+ runs. In the bowling stocks, Lasith Malinga is potentially the number one T20 exponent on the planet, while John Hastings, Clint McKay and Jackson Bird make a very solid unit. The lack of a top quality spinner may prove the only weakness.

Confirmed bets

Melbourne Stars v Melbourne Renegades WIN (one unit @ $2.15) LOSE (Stars by 76 runs)

Total sixes -8.5 (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (16) – note: information relating to the position of the boundary ropes was listed incorrectly on the BBL website, which had an a significant impact on this bet.

Leans

Batting H2H Brad Hodge v Luke Wright WIN $2.05 WIN (30-70)

Renegades Most Runs Ben Rohrer $6.00 LOSE

NHL for December 20

San Jose Sharks (21-7-6, 48 pts) @ Los Angeles Kings (23-8-4, 50 pts), STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Friday, December 20, 2.40pm

It’s clear how important home-ice advantage is when the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks meet. There hasn’t been a regulation win by the visiting team in the last 15 regular-season matchups, and the Sharks will try to change that here. San Jose (21-7-6) posted the only victory by the visitors in that 15-game span with a 6-5 shootout win April 5, 2012. The Sharks are 1-4-3 at Staples Center since a 1-0 victory on New Year’s Day in 2011. The home team has captured the last 14 overall meetings, including all seven games in last season’s Western Conference semi-final series won by the Kings. The teams split their first two meetings this season, with each needing extra time to win at home. Los Angeles skated to a 4-3 overtime victory on October 13, while San Jose posted a 3-2 shootout triumph on November 27. The Sharks evened their record on their three-game road trip with a 4-2 win at St Louis on Tuesday. Joe Thornton notched an assist Tuesday to join teammate Patrick Marleau as the only players to record 700 with San Jose.

Los Angeles began its four-game homestand with its seventh win in eight contests this month, a 3-0 triumph over Edmonton on Tuesday in which rookie Martin Jones (pictured) posted the third shutout of his six-game NHL career. Dwight King, Jordan Nolan and Dustin Brown scored for the Kings to begin this four-game homestand that leads into a four-day break for the holidays. Jones’ shutout tied him with seven others, including teammate Ben Scrivens, for the league lead through Tuesday's action. The 23-year-old, who has allowed a total of five goals, is the first Los Angeles goaltender to win his first six decisions with the club. The injured Jonathan Quick has one shutout, giving the Kings a total of seven over their first 35 games. The ‘under’ is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings, the Sharks are 0-7 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles while the Kings are 7-1 in their last eight overall. Los Angeles have to be favoured to continue the incredible home streak in this series, although the ‘under’ looks an even stronger bet here.

Confirmed bets

Florida Panthers WIN @ Ottawa Senators (one unit @ $2.15) WIN (4-2)

San Jose Sharks @ Los Angeles Kings -5 (one unit @ $1.95) PUSH (1-4)

Nashville Predators @ Tampa Bay Lightning WIN (one unit @ $1.81) WIN (2-4)

Calgary Flames @ Detroit Red Wings -5.5 (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (2-3)

Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (one unit @ $1.53) WIN (2-4)

Leans

Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres +1.5 $1.52 WIN (2-4)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Toronto Maple Leafs -5.5 $1.95 WIN (1-2)

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Philadelphia Flyers WIN $1.67 WIN (4-5)

Minnesota Wild @ Pittsburgh Penguins WIN $1.85 WIN (2-5)

Montreal Canadiens @ St. Louis Blues WIN $1.72 WIN (1-5)

Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars -5.5 $1.80 WIN (1-4)

San Jose Sharks @ Los Angeles Kings WIN $1.80 WIN (1-4)

NBA for December 20

Chicago Bulls (9-15, 3-10 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (20-4, 12-0 home), Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK, Friday, December 20, noon

Just two games for consideration today after a massive Thursday but I have one confirmed bet as the Bulls face a testing night in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have totally dominated the Chicago over the past two seasons and, given the way both are playing heading into this meeting, that trend appears likely to continue. The Thunder (20-4) will be trying to extend the league's longest active winning streak to eight games. They're averaging 110.3 points while shooting 50.1 per cent from the floor during their current run. Oklahoma City is also the only remaining undefeated team at home, becoming the first club to start a season 12-0 at home since Cleveland in 2008. Kevin Durant (who is shooting 54.2 per cent from 3-point range and 56.7 per cent overall during the winning streak) scored 30 in Tuesday’s 105-93 win at Denver, his league-leading 12th 30-plus point performance. Russell Westbrook also flirted with a triple-double, finishing with 21 points, a season-high 13 rebounds and eight assists.

Oklahoma City has won three straight against Chicago by an average margin of 16.7 points, including a 102-72 home victory on February 24. Durant was just 6 of 19 from the field for 19 points, but the Bulls’ shooting percentage of 29.1 was their worst in more than nine years. Chicago is averaging 80.3 points while shooting 34.5 per cent in its last three losses to the Thunder. Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer are a combined 15 of 48 for 41 points during that stretch. The Bulls (9-15) haven’t been much better on offense while losing six of seven, averaging 81.6 points on 37.8 per cent shooting. Their offense stalled late in the third quarter of Wednesday’s 109-94 loss at Houston, where a 15-1 run by the Rockets that period put the game out of reach. Point guard Kirk Hinrich missed his third straight game due to back stiffness, but he’s expected to travel with the team for this contest.

Confirmed bet

Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder -13 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (95-107)

Leans

Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder +192 WIN (95-107)
San Antonio Spurs +3.5 @ Golden State Warriors $1.91 WIN (104-102)

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