Daily tips for December 6

What’s on today

Where do we start? The line-up for today includes the opening game of week 14 in the NFL as the Texans head to Jacksonville while Cincinnati host Louisville in the sole College Football game of the day; there are just three NBA games for consideration including a genuine head-scratcher between the Knicks and Nets (scoreless draw perhaps?) plus a big line-up of 10 NHL games; locally, the Second Test continues in Adelaide while round 9 of the A-League kicks-off tonight.


Racing for December 6

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic – heavy 9), Doomben (Qld – dead 4), Coffs Harbour (NSW – dead 4), Port Lincoln (SA – good 3), Mt Barker (WA – good 3), Mudgee (NSW – dead 4), Moonee Valley (Vic – night, dead 5). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Carrick (Tas), Melton (Vic), Menangle (NSW), Newcastle (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Angle Park (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Where would you rather be on a random Friday than in central-west New South Wales for the running of the $30,000 Robert Oatley Vineyards Mudgee Cup. The weather is fine and sunny, the track a dead (4) and, with some of Robert Oatley’s finest to quaff, it should be a great day! Warwick Farm trainer David Vandyke (pictured) has a very strong hand across the eight-race card with #4 Husson Choice the best of the day in race 2, the Whitsundays Maiden Plate over 1500m. It’s the first prep for this 3yo gelding – he was sixth of 11 on debut behind Oxford Poet and a last start second at Kembla Grange on November 16. Jeff Penza stays aboard and although he’ll jump from the outside gate, he should be winning this.

Mudgee R2 #4 Husson Choice (win) LOSE (2nd)

Other confirmed bets

Mudgee R6 #5 Power Ranger (win) LOSE (4th) – another David Vandyke runner, this one in the Nick Moraitis colours, is undefeated in two starts and looks mighty hard to toss in this Class 2 sprint over 1200m after a six-week freshen-up. He gets in well here at the set weights.

Coffs Harbour R5 #2 Villamill (E/W) LOSE (U/P) – the Kempsey Cup winner returns here after a four-week breather for an open handicap over 1303 metres. The Peter Ball trained 5yo mare has contested 10 races in the 1300 to 1450-metre distance range and has won four times with an additional three placings.

Mornington R3 #2 She’s Precious (win) 1st ($2.70) – this 5yo mare will be a good thing’s price in a small field but I can’t see her losing. Noel Callow stays aboard for Colin and Cindy Alderson after steering her to victory on a slow track at Traralgon last time out over 1430 metres.

Adding: Moonee Valley R5 #3 Johannapine (E/W) 3rd ($3.20)

Leans

Mornington R2 #1 Acebo (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Mornington R7 #2 I Maximus (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Coffs Harbour R2 #8 Za Dust (E/W) 1st ($5.80/$2.20)

Coffs Harbour R4 #1 Reorganise (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.10)

Coffs Harbour R7 #2 Our Rendezvous (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.10/$1.50)

Mudgee R3 #4 Sheer Danger (win) LOSE (3rd)

Mudgee R7 #6 Ward (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.70/$1.70)

Port Lincoln R2 #1 Chloborough (win) LOSE (U/P)

Port Lincoln R7 #1 Tintagel Rocker (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Moonee Valley R4 #4 Blazing Dragon (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)
Moonee Valley R6 #6 Magniloquent (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Melton R9 #3 Tallulah Bay (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R9 #1 Von Ryan (win)

NFL (week 14) for December 6

Houston Texans (2-10, 1-4 away) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9, 0-5 home); EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL; Friday, December 6, 12.30pm

Finding winners is rarely easy but the opening game of week 14 in the NFL is a genuine minefield. Two teams with a combined record of 5-19, a host without victory at home this season and a visiting team that has far more incentive to lose than win. Something’s gotta give! The Houston Texans' franchise-record losing streak is up to 10 games, and even this trip to Jacksonville no longer seems like an easy win for the defending AFC South champions. The Texans let one slip on Sunday, falling 34-31 to visiting New England after leading by 10 at halftime and being up by three in the fourth quarter. Houston did a lot of things right against the Patriots, including rushing for a franchise-record four touchdowns and scoring TDs on all three of its trips to the red zone. Quarterback Case Keenum has played fairly well despite being winless in six starts, passing for 1433 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and the ground game continues to produce even with Arian Foster on injured reserve. A minus-12 turnover margin contributes to their ranking 29th in scoring offence and 27th in scoring defence.

While the Texans are playing their way into contention for the top pick in next year's draft – they own the league's worst record at 2-10 – the Jaguars' chances of picking first are fading, as they're one of four teams at 3-9. Jacksonville has yet to win in front of its home crowd but has three straight games to try and change that, with Buffalo and Tennessee visiting the next two weeks. Jacksonville aims for its first three-game winning streak since 2010 as the league's last-ranked offence has shown signs of life recently. Chad Henne (pictured) has taken over the starting QB job for the remainder of the season and led the Jaguars on an 80-yard drive for the winning score against the Browns. The defense still ranks 30th in scoring and 25th in total yards but turned in a dominant performance in a 13-6 win at Houston two weeks ago. Jacksonville has recorded eight takeaways in the last four games, matching the total from its first eight contests. Short of the Jags shooting themselves in the foot, I like them as home dogs here with the ‘under’ also a strong lean.

Confirmed bet

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-27)

Lean

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -43 $1.91 LOSE (20-27)

NHL for December 6

Chicago Blackhawks (20-5-4, 44 pts) @ Minnesota Wild (16-8-5, 37 pts), Xcel Energy Center, St Paul, MN, Friday, December 6, 12.10pm

The Chicago Blackhawks have been fantastic on the road this season. They’ve cashed in an impressive 11 of their 15 road games, have won six straight away games and have allowed just 10 goals in the process. They’ve also scored the most away goals this season (51).  As if that’s not enough, the Blackhawks are also 7-0-3 in their last 10 in Minnesota. The Blackhawks can follow their first loss in two weeks by matching the nearly half-century-old club record for consecutive road wins. However, they are coming off a 4-3 home loss to Dallas and Wild goalie Josh Harding (pictured) has been almost impossible to beat on home ice. Harding is an incredible 11-1-0 at home this season and he’s 3-0-0 with a 1.15 GAA in his past four against Chicago. Harding leads the league with a 1.45 GAA and he has yet to allow more than three goals in any of his 22 starts this season. His latest home win came in the team’s 2-0 victory over Philadelphia.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Minnesota Wild -5-5 (one unit @ $1.68) LOSE (3-4)

Other confirmed bets

12.10pm: New York Islanders (8-15-5, 21 pts) @ St Louis Blues (18-5-3, 39 pts) WIN NT (one unit @ $1.65) WIN (1-5) – the Blues return home after facing a pair of tough West Coast opponents and losing consecutive games in regulation for the first time. The prospects for a quick turnaround seem high as they meet the New York Islanders one of the NHL's worst road teams. The Blues’ 24 points at home tie them for the most in the Western Conference, and they’ve won four straight at Scottrade Center. New York has only scored more than two goals once during their seven-game slide.

11.40am: Boston Bruins (18-7-2, 38 pts) @ Montreal Canadiens (17-9-3, 37 pts) -5 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (1-2) – these great NHL rivals head into their first match-up of the season as two of the hottest teams in the NHL and fighting for first place in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins will try to earn their 11th win in 14 games and maintain a slim lead over Montreal. The Canadiens, meanwhile, will seek to take over first place by extending their point streak to nine games and winning their fifth in a row at home. Goals will be a premium!

Adding – 11.10am: New York Rangers (14-14-0, 28 pts) @ Buffalo Sabres (6-20-2, 14 pts) -5 (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (3-1)

Adding – Grand Salami -54.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (59)

Leans

Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs WIN $1.91 WIN (2-3)

Ottawa Senators WIN $2.00 @ Tampa Bay Lightning LOSE (1-3)

San Jose Sharks @ Pittsburgh Penguins WIN $1.87 WIN (1-5)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Nashville Predators WIN $1.74 LOSE (5-2)
Winnipeg Jets @ Florida Panthers WIN $1.87 WIN (2-5)
Colorado Avalanche WIN $1.80 @ Edmonton Oilers LOSE (2-8)

College Football (week 15) for December 6

AAC: 19 Louisville Cardinals (10-1, 6-1 AAC) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2, 6-1 AAC), Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Friday, December 6, 11.30am

The superbly named Keg of Nails (pictured) will be on the line for the final time in the foreseeable future in this match-up between No. 19 Louisville and Cincinnati, along with the Bearcats’ slim hopes of reaching a BCS bowl. Each team can earn a share of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) title with a win and a UCF loss at SMU on Saturday. However, only Cincinnati has a chance at the league’s automatic BCS berth due to Louisville’s 38-35 home loss to the Knights on October 18. The Bearcats (9-2, 6-1 ACC), who don't play UCF this season, would need to finish higher than UCF in the final BCS standings. The Bearcats are bowl-eligible for the seventh time in eight years and carry a six-game winning streak into this showdown. Quarterback Brendon Kay recorded his fourth 300-yard passing game of the season on November 23, when Cincinnati posted 573 yards of total offence in a 24-17 victory at Houston. Defensive end Silverberry Mouhon has 8.5 sacks and linebacker Nick Temple has 11.0 tackles for a loss to lead the Bearcats, who rank eighth nationally in total defense at 302.4 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Louisville’s (10-1, 6-1) lone blemish remains its setback against the Knights, but the Cardinals will likely be heading to a much lesser bowl game. Cincinnati owns a 29-22 all-time edge with one tie in a series that first awarded the Keg of Nails trophy to its winner in 1929. However, it’s unclear when they’ll meet again with Louisville heading to the ACC and no future matchups currently scheduled. The Cardinals ended a four-game slide in the series with a 34-31 home win last year on a 30-yard field goal from John Wallace as time expired. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been named one of 10 finalists for the Manning Award after throwing for 3268 yards and 25 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. Louisville’s defence, ranked second in the country while allowing 242.5 yards per game, forced its 24th turnover in a 24-17 victory over Memphis on November 23. Linebacker Preston Brown has had a team-high 83 tackles while defensive end Marcus Smith leads the Cardinals with 12.5 sacks. Rain is predicted and with high stakes for the Bearcats, I’m expecting a low scoring grind with the hosts to prevail.

Confirmed bet

Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (31-24)

Lean

Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats -50 ($1.91) LOSE (31-24)

NBA for December 6

Miami Heat (14-4, 5-2 away) @ Chicago Bulls (7-9, 5-1 home), United Center, Chicago, IL, Friday, December 6, 1.40pm

NBA best of the day: It’s a bizarre night in the NBA with more focus on the Knicks v Nets clash (a combined 8-26 for the season) than the other two games. I cannot recommend an investment on either of those teams – bit like choosing between typhoid and cholera – but happy to side with the Heat as they head into Chicago. Derrick Rose’s latest injury has sent the Bulls into a tailspin, and they will be trying to win for just the second time in eight games. Miami is opening up a four-game trip at Chicago that finishes with a stop at East-leading Indiana. The Bulls remained one of the strongest defensive teams in the league with Rose out for the 2012-13 season but are struggling on that end since the latest season-ending knee injury to Rose. Chicago showed some fight in a 131-128 triple-overtime home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans but were burned on the perimeter, where they allowed the Pelicans to knock down 11 3-pointers. Miami is among the league leaders in three-point efficiency, knocking down 41.1 percent from long range, and rattled in 11-of-20 from beyond the arc in a 107-95 home triumph over the Bulls in the season opener. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings while the ‘under’ is 11-5 in the past 16 contests in Chicago.

Miami Heat -4.5 @ Chicago Bulls (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (87-107)

Leans

New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets +190 $1.87 WIN (113-83)

Los Angeles Clippers WIN $1.95 @ Memphis Grizzlies WIN (101-81)

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls +188.5 WIN (87-107)

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