Daily tips for December 29

What’s on today

A sensational Sunday kicks-off with the latest games in the traditionally busy Christmas/New Year period of EPL games; the NBA slate comprises an even dozen match-ups highlighted by the visit of the Miami Heat to Portland; Chicago heads to St Louis in the pick of the eight NHL games while there are four College Football bowl games with the Belk Bowl match-up of Cincinnati and North Carolina the tightest of the day; GL punters!

College Football (late games) for December 29

Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (9-3, 5-3 ACC) v 18 Louisville Cardinals (11-1, 7-1 American), Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL, Sunday, December 29, 10.45am

Teddy Bridgewater’s likely foray into the NFL will be preceded by a match-up with his hometown team and the one to which he originally committed. Having missed out on a BCS bowl and the Heisman Trophy ceremony, Bridgewater could end his college career with a win over Miami at the Russell Athletic Bowl in the 18th-ranked Cardinals' final game before joining the Hurricanes in the ACC. Bridgewater still finished as the nation’s fifth-highest rated passer, throwing for 3523 yards with 28 TDs and four interceptions, but couldn’t get back to a BCS bowl after leading the Cardinals over Florida in last season’s Sugar Bowl. Bridgewater now looks to spoil the return from a self-imposed two-year bowl ban by a school he nearly attended. The Hurricanes had a verbal commitment from the Miami native in the summer of 2010, but coach Randy Shannon was fired and Bridgewater headed to Louisville. Miami QB Stephen Morris threw for 2868 yards and 21 TDs but poor defence derailed their season. They were 7-0 before losing three straight, including to top-ranked Florida State, while allowing more than 40 points and 500 total yards in each. That defence concerns me here, with a big total almost assured.

Confirmed bet

Miami Hurricanes v Louisville Cardinals +59.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (9-36)

Lean

Miami Hurricanes v Louisville Cardinals -5.5 $1.91 WIN (9-36)


Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan Wolverines (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten) v Kansas State Wildcats (7-5, 5-4 Big 12), Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ, Sunday, December 29, 2.15pm

It's been more than a decade since Bill Snyder and Kansas State won a bowl game, a drought the coach of the otherwise highly successful program finds a bit puzzling. The Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl might finally give the Wildcats another taste of post-season success. After winning five of its final six games, Kansas State will feel confident heading to Tempe for this match-up. The Wildcats didn’t seem like they'd be headed anywhere for the holidays after a 2-4 start that included a season-opening loss to FCS power North Dakota State, but instead turned it around over the season's final six weeks. Michigan started 5-0 but nearly lost to Akron and UConn. Despite dropping four of five to finish the season, Michigan (7-5) was still attractive to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. But the star of its 42-41 loss to Ohio State won't be around to face the Wildcats. Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and four touchdowns in nearly knocking the Buckeyes out of the national championship picture but suffered what was deemed a turf toe injury. Freshman Shane Morris will start here. This game matches two of the country’s best receivers in Kansas State’s Tyler Lockett (71 catches, 1146 yards, eight TDs) and Jeremy Gallon (80, 1284, nine).

Confirmed bet

Michigan Wolverines v Kansas State Wildcats -7 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (14-31)


NHL for December 29

Chicago Blackhawks (27-7-6, 60 points) @ St Louis Blues (24-7-5, 53 points), Scottrade Center, St Louis, MS, Sunday, December 29, 12.10pm

The St Louis Blues have won their last three match-ups with the Central Division-leading Chicago Blackhawks but won’t have their top scorer available for this one. The Blues will try to overcome Alexander Steen’s absence and cut their deficit in the division here. St Louis (24-7-5) has earned two wins over Chicago this season and Steen scored two of his 24 goals in those games. However, he will miss his second straight contest due to a concussion and was placed on injured reserve yesterday. No timetable has been set for his return. The Blues are 5-1-2 in their last eight and 2-0-1 in their past three games, but suffered a 4-3 shootout loss in Calgary on Monday in their final game before the Christmas break. After not allowing a power-play goal in four consecutive games, St Louis gave up two to the Flames and blew a two-goal lead in the third period. Mark Giordano scored the tying goal with five seconds left in regulation on a man advantage. Captain David Backes has a team-best four points (two goals, two assists) during St. Louis’ win streak against Chicago but he’s been held off the score sheet in his last three overall games.

Chicago (27-7-6) has suffered just one regulation defeat in its last 10 contests, going 7-1-2, and Patrick Sharp had a hat trick in a 7-2 rout of visiting Colorado on Friday. Patrick Kane also extended his point streak to a career-high 13 games, and Jonathan Toews registered four points as the Blackhawks improved to 4-0-1 in their last five. Kane will try to help the Blackhawks expand their divisional lead by adding to his red-hot play. He has seven goals and 15 assists during his streak, and has recorded at least one point in 25 of his last 26 games. Kane had a goal and an assist in the loss in St Louis on October 9. Toews has 11 goals and 15 assists in his last 22 games against the Blues but like Kane, he was held without a point in a 3-2 shootout loss on October 17. It’s unknown if Antti Raanta will make his ninth straight start or if the Blackhawks will give Jason LaBarbera his first with the team. Chicago acquired LaBarbera from Edmonton on December 14. Without Steen, this looks a tough spot for the Blues.

Confirmed bets

Chicago Blackhawks WIN @ St Louis Blues (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (5-6)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks WIN (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (2-3)

Boston Bruins WIN NT @ Ottawa Senators (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (3-4)

Leans

Detroit Red Wings WIN $1.87 @ Florida Panthers WIN (4-3)

Montreal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning -5 $2.00 WIN (2-1)

New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders -5.5 $1.68 WIN (2-1)

Los Angeles Kings WIN $1.62 @ Nashville Predators LOSE (2-3)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks -5.5 $1.91 WIN (2-3)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Edmonton Oilers WIN $2.10 LOSE (4-3)


NBA for December 29

Miami Heat (22-7, 8-5 away) @ Portland Trail Blazers (17-13, 12-2 home), Moda Center, Portland, OR, Sunday, December 29, 2.10pm

The Portland Trail Blazers get a chance to display they are indeed one of the NBA’s top clubs when they host the beat-up Miami Heat in the match of the day. Portland is tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the league’s top record at 24-5 record after winning just 33 games all last season. Miami had a six-game winning streak halted by the Sacramento Kings on Friday and forward LeBron James suffered a groin injury during the contest. James had 33 points, eight rebounds and eight assists against the Kings but will be a game-time decision here. The Heat had a four-point lead late in regulation but were outplayed by the lowly Kings and lost 108-103 in overtime. Guards Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen were held out of the Sacramento contest to rest their ailing knees and forward Chris Andersen (back) also missed the game. Allen’s status for Portland is questionable, while Wade was rested due to it being the first night of a back-to-back and the Heat preferring to have him against the Trail Blazers as opposed to the Kings.

Portland has alternated losses and wins in seven match-ups with the Heat and all five since James and Bosh joined Wade in Miami before the 2010-11 season. The Blazers, 12-2 at home, had lost three straight on their own floor against the Heat before a 92-90 win on January 10. The rise of the Trail Blazers is mostly because of the star tandem of forward LaMarcus Aldridge and guard Damian Lillard but the supporting cast is solid and Portland has scored 100 or more points in 16 consecutive games. Aldridge has already had a season’s worth of stellar efforts, so the 32-point, 10-rebound performance against the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday doesn’t stand out as anything special. But it picks up in significance when you factor in he had his wisdom teeth removed on Sunday and hadn’t had any solid food. The Portland standout was strong throughout while playing 40 minutes and had all three of his team’s field goals in the overtime. I expect the Blazers to continue the Western Conference’s outrageous domination of the East this season with a solid win.

Confirmed bets

Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (108-107)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics +196 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (100-103)
Detroit Pistons +3 @ Washington Wizards (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (82-106)

Charlotte Bobcats +6 @ Atlanta Hawks (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (116-118)Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers -194.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (91-105)

Leans

Brooklyn Nets +13.5 $1.91 @ Indiana Pacers LOSE (91-105)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks +203.5 $1.91 WIN (117-195)

New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors (1-10) $2.75 LOSE (100-115)

Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards -203 $1.91 WIN (82-106)

Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks -193.5 $1.91 LOSE (116-118)

Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls NO LEAN

New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets -211.5 $1.91 WIN (98-107)

Denver Nuggets +3 $1.91 @ Memphis Grizzlies LOSE (99-120)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Phoenix Suns -216.5 $1.91 WIN (101-115)

Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers -14 $1.91 LOSE (90-98)

College Football (early games) for December 29

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6, 3-5 American) v Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4), Yankee Stadium, New York, NY, Sunday, December 29, 4am

It’s a long fall from the BCS National Championship game to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl, to be played at Yankee Stadium, but Notre Dame will take it after dropping two of its final three in the regular season. Their opponents Rutgers managed to salvage bowl eligibility in their final regular-season game, snapping a three-game slide with a 31-6 triumph over South Florida to even their record at 6-6. Notre Dame challenged itself with another tough schedule and didn’t quite have enough to knock off teams like Oklahoma and Stanford this season. QB Tommy Rees took over at the beginning of the season when Everett Golson was dismissed and put up three straight 300-yard passing games to begin the season before hitting the mark only once in the last nine contests. Rutgers allowed an average of 40.3 points in a three-game losing streak before the defense stepped up against South Florida and secured the school’s eighth bowl bid in nine years. The Scarlet Knights, who head to the Big Ten next season, allowed a school-record 3737 passing yards and surrendered an average of 29.8 points. The offense fully committed to QB Chas Dodd the last two games and was rewarded with an efficient 19-for-24 effort for 179 yards and a pair of scores in the season-ending win.

Confirmed bet

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +15 v Notre Dame Fighting Irish (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (16-29)

Lean

Rutgers Scarlet Knights v Notre Dame Fighting Irish -53 WIN (16-29)

Belk Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3, 6-2 American) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6, 4-4 ACC), Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC, Sunday, December 29, 7.10am

Cincinnati and North Carolina reached the Belk Bowl on almost identical paths. Both teams had some early season struggles. Both made midseason changes at quarterback. Both went on big runs during the middle of the year, picking up steam to go on long winning streaks. And then both lost close games in their regular-season finales to long-time rivals. Cincinnati (9-3) is playing in the Belk Bowl for the second consecutive season after defeating Duke 48-34 last December. This year, the Bearcats rolled off six straight wins during the middle of the season, and wound up finishing third in the AAC. With an offence that averages 33.3 points under the leadership of quarterback Brendon Kay, the Bearcats rolled through the back end of their schedule, finishing the regular season with 166 more points than their opponents. The Tar Heels (6-6) made their change under center later in the season, after starter Bryn Renner suffered a season-ending shoulder injury November 2. The more mobile Marquise Williams took over and finished the season with 14 TD passes while leading the team in rushing with 531 yards and six scores Eric Ebron is the team’s leader in receptions (55) and yards (895).

Confirmed bet

Cincinnati Bearcats v North Carolina Tar Heels -2.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (17-39)

EPL for December 29

Aston Villa (5-4-9, 19 points) v Swansea City (5-5-8, 20 points), Villa Park, Birmingham, England, Sunday, December 28, 2am

Villa’s opening day victory against Arsenal is a distant memory as they have now lost four games in a row, while the excursions of the Europa League mean Swansea have taken just 10 points from their last 10 games. Aston Villa have lost four successive league matches and haven’t lost five games in a row since January 2001. They are just one point better off than this stage last season, when they endured a long winter under Paul Lambert (pictured) before their positive end to the campaign. The biggest concern continues to be home form. They have lost six of their nine games at Villa Park this season and home supporters have watched only 11 victories in the past 47 games. Villa haven’t scored in five of their last six games at home and their total of only six goals is the worst in any of the four top divisions. They’ve also failed to score in half of their EPL matches this season, the joint-worst record in the division. Injured pair Ron Vlaar and Christian Benteke will again be missing.

With anxiety in the air, Swansea will look to capitalise. Michael Laudrup’s team have won more games away than at the Liberty Stadium. Despite the fact they are without the injured Michu, Nathan Dyer, Michel Vorm and Garry Monk and are waiting for record signing Wilfried Bony to really start firing, only eight teams have scored more goals than them so far this season. Whatever the outcome, the Welsh side will look back on 2013 with fond memories. Swansea have lost eight of their nine previous league trips to Villa Park, failing to score in all eight defeats. Their solitary win was by 2-0 on 2 January 2012 but this is only the 22nd meeting between the sides. Aston Villa have won 15, Swansea four and there have been two draws. Swansea are enduring a four-match winless streak (D2, L2), their worst run of the season, and have only won two of their last 10 league matches. This looks like a one-goal game but a scoreless draw wouldn’t surprise – I’ll be betting accordingly.

Confirmed bets

Aston Villa v Swansea City -1.5 (one unit @ $3.10) LOSE (1-1)

West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion -2.5 (one unit @ $1.73) LOSE (3-3)

Manchester City (to nil) v Crystal Palace (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (1-0)

Cardiff City v Sunderland WIN -2.5 (one unit @ $1.62) LOSE (2-2)

Leans

West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion DRAW $3.00 WIN (3-3)

Aston Villa WIN $2.80 v Swansea City LOSE (1-1)

Hull City v Fulham BTS $1.95 LOSE (6-0)

Manchester City -2 $2.15 v Crystal Palace LOSE (2-2)
Norwich City v Manchester United -2.5 $2.05 WIN (0-1)

Cardiff City v Sunderland WIN $3.20 LOSE (2-2)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.