Friday 27 December 2013

Daily tips for December 28


What’s on today

In short, plenty – the NHL returns after a three-day hiatus with a slate of 10 games; likewise, there are nine NBA games scheduled after yesterday’s Christmas Day blockbuster program; three College Football bowl games will be played today with my tip for the first of the day posted here; locally, it’s another big day of racing while the summer of tennis kicks-off in Perth with the Hopman Cup; I’ll also have Big Bash and A-League selections later in the day along with a full rundown of EPL games; GL punters!


Cricket (Big Bash League) for December 28

Brisbane Heat (1-0-0, 2 points) v Hobart Hurricanes (0-0-1, 1 point), Gabba, Brisbane, Saturday, December 28, 7.15pm

Last night’s short-priced favourites Adelaide fell over the line with the Brisbane Heat rated a similar chance of defeating the Hobart Hurricanes. In the most exciting match in the opening round of BBL03, the Heat pinched the points from the back pocket of the Perth Scorchers, thanks to the late fireworks of Chris Lynn and Ben Cutting. Stuart Law was certainly breathing a sigh of relief after getting his first win as Heat coach. The Brisbane bowlers had done a great job to slow the Scorchers’ momentum in the middle overs, but their top order batsmen made the chase harder than it perhaps should have been. By contrast, Hurricanes’ batsmen didn’t even open their kits in Hobart, with their game against the Strikers rained off after just six overs in the field. The Hurricanes’ bowlers might still be wishing they never got on in the first place, with all five of them smashed about in a short session of carnage.


The men in teal will probably field an unchanged line-up for this game, but their batsmen will need to perform much better as a group. It was only really a three-ball six hitting spree from Chris Lynn, in his innings of 81, that helped the Heat home. The likes of Luke Pomersbach (pictured), Craig Kieswetter, Joe Burns, Dan Christian and James Hopes all failed with the bat. Ben Cutting is hugely important player for the Heat as his three wickets and late batting cameo showed in round one. Daniel Vettori underlined his value at this level with a crucial spell of 1-21 against Perth. Hobart will be without Australian T20 skipper George Bailey and import Dimitri Mascarenhas who broke his jaw before the start of the season. They do have some batting firepower in Travis Birt, Tim Paine and Ben Dunk and their bowling isn’t dreadful with Pakistani all-rounder Shoaib Malik a decent inclusion. But the Heat look good things here at the short quote.

Confirmed bet

Brisbane Heat WIN v Hobart Hurricanes (one unit @ $1.65) LOSE (by 3 wickets)

Lean

Brisbane Heat most runs – Luke Pomersbach $3.75 LOSE

Record: 2-4, -1.7 units


A-League (round 12) for December 28

Melbourne Victory (5-3-3, 18 points) v Western Sydney Wanderers (6-4-1, 22 points), AAMI Park, Melbourne, Saturday, December 28, 7.45pm

A nasty backdrop to this game was established this afternoon with a nasty brawl between Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory fans in the city, so expect a toxic presence for this A-League match of the round at AAMI Park.  Since their last meeting, a closely fought and entertaining contest which the Wanderers shaded despite Victory dominating possession, the form of these two sides has been solid enough, but not as consistent as their respective coaches would desire. Victory have recorded convincing wins over Adelaide, Perth and the Heart and drawn away to the Mariners, with a home loss to the Jets the only real blot on their copybook. Gui Finkler must be close to returning to the Victory’s line-up. The Brazilian played another 30 minutes off the bench in the derby win over Heart, leading on from his goal-scoring cameo against Perth the previous work. The playmaker is certainly back up to the full fitness after tearing his ACL last season, and Kevin Muscat has said his challenge is now to force his way past James Troisi and Mitch Nichols.


For the Wanderers, a 3-1 loss at Brisbane Roar prompted a slight dip in form which saw them draw twice in succession against the Heart and the Phoenix, before returning to winning ways with a 1-0 triumph away to the Jets and at home to Central Coast. Promising striker Tomi Juric (pictured) could be forgiven for looking a little rusty in his first start since recovering from a knee injury, but was at his bustling best against Central Coast, scoring a tremendous goal and giving the Mariners' defence problems. The clamour has started again for him to be elevated to the Socceroos The Victory's preferred 4-2-4 formation could force Nichols or Troisi to drop deep and interfere with Japanese international Shinju Ono, as holding duo Mark Milligan and Leigh Broxham are likely to have their hands full with the Wanderers' own deeper pair. If Ono is left unattended, he has the potential to draw one of Victory's centre-backs out of position, leaving Juric free to wreak havoc in the box. I have to lean to the Wanderers here at the generous quote on offer.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers DNB (one unit @ $1.80) PUSH (1-1)

Leans

Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers BTS $1.85 WIN (1-1)
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers WIN $2.55 LOSE (1-1)



Racing for December 28

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Scone (NSW), Stony Creek (Vic), Beaudesert (Qld), Sunshine Coast (Qld – night). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Harvey (WA), Melton (Vic), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Cannington (WA), Ipswich (Qld), Richmond (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Warrnambool (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW).

When Mark Kavanagh is loathe to talk-up the hopes of one of his runners, that’s as good an indication that the thing will probably go well! That’s just what I’m expecting from #5 Chivalry when he jumps in the Quest Moonee Valley Plate over 1000 metres. The 2yo colt was odds-on for his first run at Flemington and finished runner-up. He looked a bit lost down the Flemington straight and I suspect he’ll be sharper here and, at the price on offer, pretty decent value.

Confirmed bets

Moonee Valley R1 #5 Chivalry (win) 1st ($3.20)
Canterbury R5 #2 Knoydart (win) 1st ($2.40)
Canterbury R6 #5 I’ve Got The Looks (win) 1st ($2.50)
Morphettville R3 #6 Caton (E/W) 2nd ($2.90)
Morphettville R6 #3 Éclair Samba (win) LOSE (2nd)

Leans

Moonee Valley R3 #1 Kiss Me Ketut (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.50)
Moonee Valley R6 #4 Johannapine (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.20)
Canterbury R1 #7 Jetwings (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)
Canterbury R3 #6 Big Memory (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.50/$1.50)
Canterbury R8 #6 Messene (win) 1st ($1.70)
Doomben R2 #5 Black Jet (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.00/$1.50)
Doomben R6 #8 Echo Gal (win) LOSE (U/P)
Doomben R7 #13 Enquare (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.80/$1.80)
Morphettville R2 #3 Fine Approach (win) 3rd (NTD)
Morphettville R5 #6 La Vanta (win) 1st ($1.60)
Morphettville R7 #8 More Than Eagle (win) LOSE (3rd)
Scone R1 #5 Adizero (E/W) 3rd (NTD)

NBA for December 28

Phoenix Suns (17-10, 7-6 away) @ Golden State Warriors (17-13, 10-4 home), Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA, Saturday, December 28, 2.40pm

The Golden State Warriors are showing some fight, and it is leading to wins. The Warriors will look to post their fourth straight triumph and gain ground in the Pacific Division when they host the scorching Phoenix Suns. Golden State earned a 105-103 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday in game that featured a pair of ejections, two flagrant fouls and a scrum after the final buzzer between the clubs. The Warriors figured on battling the Clippers all season in the Pacific but the Suns are more of a surprise and have won three straight and eight of the last nine (including one over Golden State on December 15) thanks to a well-rounded offense and rapid ball movement. The Warriors can fill it up as well but are also making a mark defensively in the last three games. Phoenix’s backcourt duo of Bledsoe and Goran Dragic makes the offense go, but bench players like Markieff and Marcus Morris and Gerald Green are also capable of putting up big scoring numbers.


The Suns are getting surprising contributions from center Miles Plumlee (pictured), who played only 55 total minutes with Indiana last season but is averaging close to a double-double (9.7 points and 9.1 rebounds) and is coming off a 17-point, 20-rebound effort in a 117-90 drubbing of the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday. Golden State can counter Plumlee down low with Andrew Bogut and David Lee, who became the first pair of teammates since Rich Kelley and Truck Robinson of the 1978 New Orleans Jazz to post 10 consecutive games of 10 or more rebounds apiece in Wednesday’s win over the Clippers. Bogut is also a key to the defence, which held the Lakers and Denver Nuggets to an average of 82 points and kept Chris Paul off the board in the final minute of Wednesday’s triumph to extend the winning streak. The Warriors are playing their final home game before a six-game road trip. The Suns are a staggering 20-6-1 ATS this season while the ‘over’ is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Oakland.

Confirmed bets

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Bobcats -195 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (89-85)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (93-104)
Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves -6 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (98-120)
Miami Heat -6.5 @ Sacramento Kings (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (103-108)
Phoenix Suns +7 @ Golden State Warriors (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (86-115)

Leans

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic -203.5 $1.91 WIN (92-109)
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks +2.5 $1.91 LOSE (95-83)
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans -3 $1.91 WIN (89-105)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz -198.5 LOSE (103-105)
Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings -208 $1.91 LOSE (103-108)


College Football (late games) for December 28


Texas Bowl: Syracuse Orange (6-6, 4-4 ACC) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4, 4-4 Big Ten), Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX, Saturday, December 28, 10am


Minnesota heads to the Texas Bowl for the second straight season, even though the team won two more games than it did in 2012 and some pundits expected the Golden Gophers to play in a more prominent bowl game. Minnesota suffered a devastating loss to Texas Tech in last year's Texas Bowl: it led 31-24 before the Red Raiders scored the tying touchdown with 1:10 left, then picked off Philip Nelson to set up the game-winning field goal. Minnesota uses two quarterbacks, Nelson and Mitch Leidner, and the duo has combined for more rushing touchdowns (13) than passing scores (10). David Cobb is the workhorse back for the Gophers, rushing for 1111 yards and seven TDs. The Gophers' defense showed significant improvement late in the season, allowing 44 points over the last three games. Syracuse will be playing a Big Ten opponent for the third time this year, after losing to Penn State and Northwestern by a combined 27 points. QB Terrel Hunt has thrown three touchdowns over the last two games after not throwing for any scores – while throwing seven interceptions – over the previous six contests. Hunt is known more for his legs, joining Jerome Smith (840 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Prince-Tyson Gulley (440 yards, four TDs) to give Syracuse a solid rushing attack.

Confirmed bet

Syracuse Orange v Minnesota Golden Gophers -47.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-17)

Lean

Syracuse Orange +3.5 v Minnesota Golden Gophers $1.91 WIN (21-17)



Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU Cougars (8-4) v Washington Huskies (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12), AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA, Saturday, December 28, 1.30pm



Washington made a big splash by hiring Chris Petersen away from Boise State earlier this month, but its new coach will be a casual observer when the Huskies face BYU in the Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco. With Steve Sarkisian headed to USC, quarterbacks coach Marques Tuiasosopo will lead the Huskies against BYU, which has won a school-record four consecutive bowl games. Washington is looking to win nine games for the first time since 2000, when Tuiasosopo was the Huskies’ starting quarterback. BYU boasts a top-25-scoring defense, but the Cougars figure to be tested by an explosive Huskies' offense led by Bishop Sankey, who has rushed for 1,775 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Cougars also have to worry about Washington’s Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who caught seven touchdown passes and received the John Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. The teams have split eight meetings in a series that began in 1985. BYU has won its past three games against the Huskies, including a 23-17 victory in 2010. The Fight Hunger Bowl marks the teams’ first meeting in a bowl game and I’m expecting the Huskies to make a big statement of intent for their 2014 campaign.

Confirmed bet

BYU Cougars v Washington Huskies -5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (16-31)

NHL for December 28

Buffalo Sabres (10-24-3, 23 pts) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (18-16-5, 41 pts), Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada, Saturday, December 28, 11.40am

This game almost qualifies as a bad team v bad team situation as the slumping Maple Leafs host Atlantic Division cellar dwellers Buffalo. The Sabres also haven't won on the road in almost two months, and visiting Toronto may not provide a solution. The Sabres hope to have up to five players back from an illness, as they try to end an eight-game road losing streak by winning in Toronto for just the second time in nine tries. Buffalo (10-24-3) owns the fewest points in the NHL, and the team is 3-12-1 on the road. The Sabres last won as the visitor on November 5, when Cody Hodgson netted the decisive shootout goal in a 5-4 win at San Jose. Since then, they've been outscored 26-9 in eight road games. Buffalo, though, has created some momentum at home, after beating Phoenix 2-1 on a bizarre goal in overtime. Mark Pysyk's shot landed on the back of Coyotes goaltender Mike Smith, who unknowingly crossed the line with the puck.



The Maple Leafs (18-16-5) may be thrilled to host the Sabres since they’re 4-6-1 at home after winning eight of their first 10. The venue, however, hasn't mattered much of late. Toronto is 2-5-2 in its last nine games, with three in a row going to shootouts and the last two ending in defeats. In Monday’s 2-1 road loss to the New York Rangers, Nazem Kadri salvaged a point by tying the game with 1:24 left in regulation. It’s unclear if goalie Jonathan Bernier will be back in net since he’s lost all three of his meetings with the Sabres behind a 3.39 goals-against average. However, he’s stopped 67 of 69 shots through overtime while losing the last two games via shootouts. James Reimer has won all four home games against Buffalo with a 2.50 GAA, but he’s 1-1-0 with a 3.77 GAA while being pulled from two of his last four starts. With neither side in great form, I have to take the price on offer about the Sabres.


Confirmed bets


Buffalo Sabres WIN @ Toronto Maple Leafs (one unit @ $2.28) LOSE (3-4)
Edmonton Oilers @ Calgary Flames +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (2-0)
Minnesota Wild @ Winnipeg Jets +5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (4-6)
Nashville Predators @ Dallas Stars WIN (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (2-4)
Colorado Avalanche +1.5 @ Chicago Blackhawks (one unit @ $1.50) LOSE (2-7)

Leans

Columbus Blue Jackets @ New Jersey Devils -5 $1.91 WIN (2-1)
New York Rangers WIN $2.00 @ Washington Capitals LOSE (2-3)
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Carolina Hurricanes WIN $2.00 LOSE (4-3)
Ottawa Senators @ Boston Bruins +5 $1.74 PUSH (0-5)
Buffalo Sabres WIN @ Toronto Maple Leafs +5 $1.77 WIN (3-4)
Colorado Avalanche @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 $1.87 WIN (2-7)
San Jose Sharks @ Phoenix Coyotes WIN $2.00 LOSE (4-3)

College Football for December 28


Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman: Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4, 7-1 C-USA) v Maryland Terrapins (7-5, 3-5 ACC), Navy Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD, Saturday, December 28, 6.30am


Marshall narrowly missed out on a Conference USA crown with a loss in its last game but can still count the season a success with a bowl win. The Thundering Herd will attempt to post a 10-win campaign when they face Maryland in the Military Bowl. The Terrapins struggled to 3-5 in the ACC and dropped four of their last six games but ended the regular season on a high note with a win at North Carolina State. Marshall plays wide open on offence and was one of the top scoring teams in the nation at 43 points per game. They return to bowl play after missing out last season and are thriving offensively behind QB Rakeem Cato, who has passed for 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season. The Thundering Herd averaged 53.8 points during a five-game win streak that put them in line for the C-USA title before losing 41-24 at Rice in the conference championship game. Maryland is playing close to home but proximity to its own fans did not help much this season, as the team lost its last three home games. The Terrapins utilise dual-threat quarterback C.J. Brown in a balanced offensive attack. Have to go with the ACC side here as I have the line directly opposite to that posted.

Confirmed bet

Marshall Thundering Herd v Maryland Terrapins +2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (31-20)

Lean

Marshall Thundering Herd v Maryland Terrapins +62.5 $1.91 LOSE (31-20)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

No comments:

Post a Comment