Daily tips for December 15

What’s on today

Today’s card kicks-off with a cracking match-up between Manchester City and Arsenal in the EPL, with my tips for the day’s games posted here; there are an even dozen games scheduled in NHL with the toughest on the card out west as the Vancouver Canucks host the Boston Bruins; meanwhile, the NBA card comprises mostly one-sided games but that means plenty of value; it’s another big Sunday of racing & I’ll also have a handful of College Football tips available.


NHL for December 15

Carolina Hurricanes (13-13-7, 33 pts) @ Phoenix Coyotes (18-8-5, 41 pts), Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ, Sunday, December 15, 12.10pm

Home dogs are the order of the day in the NHL with the Kings, Blackhawks, Canadiens, Blues and Sharks all favoured to win on the road. As we discovered last weekend, that can have a habit of turning out badly! So I’m going to stick with the Phoenix Coyotes, who’ve won back-to-back games for the first time in a month. As one of five division teams with at least 41 points, they'll aim to continue shoving their way through the crowd against the visiting Carolina Hurricanes. The Coyotes (18-8-5) have done plenty of their damage this season against the Eastern Conference by going 8-1-1, including a 5-3 win at Carolina on October 13. The Coyotes' confidence is rising after a 6-3 home win over the New York Islanders. Center Mike Ribeiro (pictured) had a goal and an assist against the Islanders, and his eight points in the last five games have him now leading the team with 26. Seven Coyotes have over 20 points, which is something only Chicago and St Louis can also claim. Defensive-zone success could be the missing ingredient for the Coyotes.

They’re allowing an average of 3.06 goals, and the other five teams giving up over three goals per game have losing records. That’s carried over to the penalty kill, where Phoenix ranks among the worst in the league at 77.5 per cent. The Hurricanes (13-13-7), though, haven’t done much on the power play to cause other teams concern. Their 12.8 percentage is among the worst in the NHL, and they’ve yet to score more than one power-play goal in a game despite being among the league leaders in opportunities with 117. They could have used one in Thursday’s 2-1 overtime loss at Calgary. Jeff Skinner scored for a second straight game and has seven goals in his last six, though he missed a third-period penalty shot. Despite playing just 22 games, his 11 goals lead the team. The return of Alexander Semin is timely. The forward played Thursday after missing 12 games with a concussion. He had 44 points in 44 games a season ago. Semin has six points in five career games against the Coyotes. Phoenix is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings with Carolina.

Confirmed bets

Calgary Flames @ Buffalo Sabres -5 (one unit @ $2.13) WIN (2-1)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Phoenix Coyotes WIN NT (one unit @ $1.97) LOSE (3-1)

Boston Bruins WIN @ Vancouver Canucks (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (2-6)

Los Angeles Kings WIN @ Ottawa Senators (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (5-2)
San Jose Sharks @ Nashville Predators +1.5 (one unit @ $1.52) WIN (2-3)

Leans

Dallas Stars @ Winnipeg Jets +5.5 $2.12 WIN (6-4)

Chicago Blackhawks WIN $1.57 @ Toronto Maple Leafs LOSE (3-7)

Pittsburgh Penguins WIN $2.04 @ Detroit Red Wings WIN (4-1)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils NO LEAN (0-3)

Montreal Canadiens WIN $1.75 @ New York Islanders WIN (1-0)

St Louis Blues WIN $1.60 @ Columbus Blue Jackets WIN (4-3)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Phoenix Coyotes +5.5 $1.91 WIN (2-6)
Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche +5 $1.93 LOSE (2-1)

NBA for December 15

Milwaukee Bucks (5-18, 3-8 away) @ Dallas Mavericks (13-10, 9-2 home), American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX, Sunday, December 15, 12.40pm

I’m normally loathe to play lines of more than 10 points but in the case of Milwaukee’s visit to Dallas, it’s worth a small investment. There are familiar faces on either bench – Dirk Nowitzki (pictured) scored the most points for the Dallas Mavericks in 12 straight seasons until O.J. Mayo ended that streak in 2012-13. Mayo returns to Dallas with the Milwaukee Bucks, who will see one of their former players, Monta Ellis, in a Mavs uniform. The Mavericks (13-10) opted not to re-sign Mayo, who joined Milwaukee on July 13. The Bucks (5-18), meanwhile, decided not to re-sign Ellis, who signed with Dallas on July 23. Ellis is averaging 21.4 points as the Mavs’ top scorer, with Nowitzki at 21.1. Ellis was booed repeatedly in his return to Milwaukee in the Mavs’ 91-83 victory on November 9. He led four Dallas players in double figures with 18 points as his team built a lead as large as 19 points in the first half and held off a late rally.

While Dallas has enjoyed two days off before this contest, Milwaukee will arrive after a 91-90 home loss to Chicago on Friday. The Bucks are 1-7 in the second half of back-to-back contests. The Mavericks also will likely have a key player ready to make his season debut. Brandan Wright is expected to play after being out with a small, non-displaced fracture to his left shoulder. Dallas will start a three-game homestand after a 2-2 trip ended with Wednesday’s 95-93 loss to Golden State. The Mavs led by as many as 18 points before blowing a six-point advantage with 1:26 to go. Now Dallas will try to avoid its first three-game slide and improve to 5-0 at home against Eastern Conference foes. The lowly Bucks are in search of three straight road wins as they try to recover from Friday’s disappointment in which former Milwaukee forward Mike Dunleavy banked in a winning three-pointer with 5.8 seconds left to beat them. They led by five with 90 seconds to go.

Confirmed bets

Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (88-85)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat +198.5 $1.91 WIN (107-114)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Dallas Mavericks -11.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (93-106)

Leans

Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats +198.5 $1.91 LOSE (88-85)

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks +192 $1.91 WIN (106-111)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington Wizards +4 $1.91 LOSE (113-97)

Toronto Raptors +2.5 $1.91 @ Chicago Bulls WIN (99-77)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat -12.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (107-114) 
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers +211.5 $1.91 WIN (139-105)
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz +6.5 $1.91 LOSE (100-84)

College Football (week 16) for December 15

Army Black Knights (3-8) v Navy Midshipmen (7-4), Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA, Sunday, December 15, 7am

One of the oldest rivalries in College Football (dating back to 1890) has been a one-sided affair of late and the early line suggests more of the same is in order as the Army Black Knights take on the Navy Midshipmen in the 114th edition of the Army-Navy game. Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field is the site of the latest battle between the two storied military schools. Navy comes in having won the last 11 match-ups, squeaking out a 17-13 decision last year to improve to 57-49-7 in the series.  While the story off the field has been Army’s inability to solve the Midshipmen, the focus on the field will be on which team can establish a more robust ground game. The Midshipmen struggled on defence but boasts the second-best rush attack in the nation, averaging more than 323 yards per game. Navy is right behind them at 320 rushing yards per contest, and is led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds and his mind-boggling 26 rushing touchdowns.

The Black Knights were set to challenge for their first .500 season since 2010, but dropped four straight games heading into its finale to fall to 8-27 over the past three years. As good as the rushing game has been (eight different players have recorded at least one score on the ground) the passing game averages just 80 yards per outing while generating just four touchdowns in 11 games. Running back Terry Baggett leads the team with 1072 rushing yards, while QB Angel Santiago actually has more yards on the ground (553) than through the air (542). Reynolds had his share of impressive games in 2013 (three or more TDs five times heading into mid-November) but saved his best work for the thrilling 58-52 win over San Jose State. He exploded for 240 yards and seven rushing scores, leaving him one TD shy of the single-season record for a QB shared by Ricky Dobbs and Collin Klein. The Midshipmen have racked up 43 scores on the ground compared to eight through the air. They’ll cover here with ease.

Update: The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for a 100 per cent chance snow, changing to ice pellets later in the game. Temperatures will dip below freezing and winds will blow ENE at 13 km/h.

Confirmed bet

Army v Navy -13.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (7-34)

Lean

Adding: Army v Navy -51.5 WIN (7-34)

EPL for December 14-15

Manchester City (9-2-4, 29 pts) v Arsenal 11-2-2, 35 pts), Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England, Saturday, December 14, 11.45pm

Here’s one worth sitting up to watch tonight (for those in my part of the world). Arsenal’s visit to Etihad Stadium has all the makings of being one of the games of the season. Goals have been in short supply when these two have met recently – just seven have been scored in the last six contests (five for Manchester City, two for Arsenal).  With City needing to win to narrow the gap on the Gunners there could be an extra tension to their play although it didn’t show in their 6-0 demolition of Tottenham. Both teams were also in action on Matchday 6 of the UEFA Champions League during the week. Arsenal might have qualified for the last 16 but defeat in Naples and losing top spot and potentially a kinder draw was a blow, while City’s win away to Bayern Munich has to be taken with a grain of salt. Still a win over the reigning European Cup holders on their home turf has to be respected. This clash features the EPL’s best home record (by a goal-filled distance) against the team that’s been best on the road (16 points).

City net 20.6 per cent of their shots on goal while Arsenal aren’t far behind at 18.9 per cent. I expect City to come out firing, and Arsenal will have to be ready. Arsenal have won only one of their past six league and cup games against Manchester City, and have failed to score in six of the previous nine meetings in all competitions. It’s interesting to note that the past six Premier League matches between these sides have produced six red cards (four to City players)! Manchester City’s tally of 29 home goals is the most by a top-flight team in their opening seven matches since Tottenham in 1962-63 (also 29). City have scored in 57 consecutive Premier League home games, a run stretching back to a 0-0 draw with Birmingham in November 2010. Manchester City are expected to recall Vincent Kompany (pictured), Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure, none of whom featured in the win at Bayern Munich while Arsenal will assess defender Bacary Sagna, who is nursing a hamstring problem. It’s not every day that City will jump at this price at home so let’s have a piece!

Confirmed bets

Everton WIN v Fulham (two units @ $1.40) WIN (4-1)

Manchester City WIN v Arsenal (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (6-3)

West Ham United v Sunderland -2.5 (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (0-0)

Newcastle United v Southampton BTS (one unit @ $1.67) WIN (1-1)

Leans

West Ham United v Sunderland (double chance) $1.75 WIN (0-0)

Everton (to nil) $2.35 v Fulham LOSE (4-1)

Hull City v Stoke City -1.5 (total) $2.50 WIN (0-0)

Cardiff City v West Bromwich Albion WIN $2.80 LOSE (1-0)

Newcastle United WIN $2.50 v Southampton LOSE (1-1)

Chelsea -2 $2.35 v Crystal Palace LOSE (2-1)

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