Daily tips for December 16

What’s on today

Action kicks-off for the day soon in the first two of three EPL games but the late game featuring Spurs and Liverpool is the pick of the trio; week 15 in the NFL is one of the tighter cards of the season with just one market set at more than a touchdown – Packers @ Cowboys looks the pick of the games; there are six games in the NBA while the Kings’ visit to Chicago is the highlight of the six-game slate; GL punters!

Note: After 243 daily blogs, the Last At Cannington blog will soon be moving to a unique website offering a vast array of features and content. In preparation, I’m having some time off this week so racing tips will only be posted on Wednesday and Saturday; thanks again for all your support.

NHL for December 16

Los Angeles Kings (22-7-4, 48 pts) @ Chicago Blackhawks (23-7-5, 51 pts), United Center, Chicago, IL, Monday, December 16, 11.10am

Several clubs are finding it tough without their preferred goalies, and that’s the case in Chicago. The Blackhawks are without lead goaltender Corey Crawford for a few weeks and for the first time, that proved to be quite the problem. They lost 7-3 in Toronto and had to pull Antti Raanta after he gave up five goals in two periods. Back-up Kent Simpson didn’t fare much better as he gave up two goals on just seven shots in the third period. Now the Blackhawks have a quick turnaround and have to face one of the hottest teams in the league – the Los Angeles Kings. Last spring, a dramatic hat trick from Patrick Kane vaulted the Blackhawks to the Stanley Cup finals at the expense of the Kings. The Blackhawks won all three home games in that series, improving to 10-2-1 over the last 13 home meetings with Los Angeles. Kane has tallied 16 points during an eight-game streak overall, but his two goals weren’t enough in a 7-3 loss at Toronto on Saturday.

A return home should help the Blackhawks, who are 6-1-1 in their last eight games there while averaging 4.6 goals and scoring 13 in winning the past two contests. The Kings, though, enter this meeting as one of the league’s hottest teams. They have outscored opponents 23-7 during a six-game win streak overall and are 7-0-1 in their last eight on the road. They haven’t won seven in a row since a nine-game run January 21-February 6, 2010. Los Angeles extended its current string by scoring three consecutive goals in the opening period en route to a 5-2 win at Ottawa on Saturday. Anže Kopitar (pictured) scored twice against the Senators, giving him four goals and one assist over the past four games. Rookie Martin Jones made 37 saves Saturday to win his fifth start in as many games, posting a remarkable .967 save percentage. He could give way to Ben Scrivens with games on back-to-back days despite that success. Scrivens has allowed two goals or fewer in 11 straight starts.

Confirmed bets

Los Angeles Kings WIN @ Chicago Blackhawks (one unit @ $2.13) LOSE (1-3)

Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks WIN NT (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (2-3)

Florida Panthers +1.5 @ Montreal Canadiens (one unit @ $1.50) WIN (2-1)

Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 @ Washington Capitals (one unit @ $1.46) WIN (4-5)

Leans

Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $2.10 @ Detroit Red Wings WIN (3-0)

Florida Panthers @ Montreal Canadiens -5 $2.13 WIN (2-1)

Calgary Flames @ New York Rangers WIN NT $1.85 WIN (3-4)

Los Angeles Kings @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 $2.00 LOSE (1-3)

Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks -1.5 $2.50 LOSE (2-3)

NBA for December 16

New Orleans Pelicans (11-10, 4-5 away) @ Denver Nuggets (13-9, 6-3 home), Pepsi Center, Denver, CO, Monday, December 15, 12.10pm

Several players have chipped in to help the New Orleans Pelicans avoid taking a major step back after the loss of Anthony Davis to injury. Here, the Pelicans aim for their longest road win streak in almost three years against the Denver Nuggets, who are seeking their seventh victory in eight home games. Davis was averaging 18.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and a league-best 3.6 blocks when he went down for at least four weeks with a broken right hand at New York on December 1. While he’s only shooting 38.7 per cent, Ryan Anderson (pictured) has helped pick up the scoring slack with 22.4 per game and 15 3-pointers since replacing Davis in the starting line-up. He’s also averaged 20.8 points with 17 three-pointers over his last five against the Nuggets. The Pelicans’ backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon combined for 45 points in their 104-98 win over Memphis while hitting 17 of 26 from the field with six 3s. Gordon led the way with 25 points on 10-of-12 shooting, including a 20-foot jumper to seal it in the final moments.

The Pelicans open a five-game trip seeking their fourth straight road win, which would be their longest since winning five in a row from January 9-26, 2011. They haven’t had much success in Denver, though, dropping the last three by an average of 15.3 points. The banged-up Nuggets (13-9) had won six straight at home before a stunning 103-93 loss to Western Conference-worst Utah on Friday. Ty Lawson, averaging a team-high 18.4 points, returned after sitting out two games with a hamstring injury but went scoreless while missing all six of his shots from the field. Starters Danilo Gallinari (knee) and JaVale McGee (broken leg) remain out with injuries. Wilson Chandler and Jordan Hamilton scored 17 apiece for the Nuggets, who allowed 33 first-quarter points to fall behind after 12 minutes for the seventh straight game. Brian Shaw’s team has averaged just 91.4 points on 41.7 per cent shooting while losing three of five, but might be able to turn things around against a New Orleans team that is allowing 107.3 points per game on the road.

Confirmed bets

New Orleans Pelicans +6.5 $1.91 @ Denver Nuggets LOSE (93-102)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis -196.5 $1.91 WIN (101-93)

Leans

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings +7 $1.91 WIN (91-106)

Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder +205.5 $1.91 LOSE (98-101)
Minnesota Timberwolves -3 $1.91 @ Memphis WIN (101-93)

Portland Trail Blazers -4 $1.91 @ Detroit Pistons LOSE (111-109)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets +204.5 $1.91 LOSE (93-102)

Golden State Warriors -1.5 $1.91 @ Phoenix Suns LOSE (102-106)

NFL (week 15) for December 16

Houston Texans (2-11, 1-5 away) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-5, 4-2 home), Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, Monday, December 16, 5am

There are three types of teams at this stage of the season – those heading to the playoffs; those aspiring to the playoffs and those who can’t give a stuff. The Houston Texans fall into the latter category. Throw in the fact that the Texans haven’t won in Indianapolis in the past 11 starts and the Colts start to look pretty good things here. In fact, this is one of my best bets of the year. The Indianapolis Colts clinched the AFC South after Tennessee’s loss at Denver on Sunday handed Indianapolis (8-5) the division crown. This game will provide the Colts an opportunity to remedy some issues on either side of the ball. They haven't scored a first-half touchdown in the last six games. They’ve been outscored 114-24 in the first 30 minutes over that span. Indianapolis has also struggled defensively, allowing an average of 32.2 points while dropping three of five. The Colts gave up 19.4 per game during a 6-2 start. Indianapolis seems headed for the No. 4 seed, with AFC West leader Denver at 11-2, East leader New England at 10-3 and the North-leading Bengals at 9-4 and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.

QB Andrew Luck has not thrown an interception while tossing seven touchdowns in three career meetings with the Texans. Though he went 18 for 40 at Houston on November 3, he threw for 271 yards and three second-half scores to T.Y. Hilton as the Colts rallied from 18 down for a 27-24 victory. The Colts’ 11 straight home wins over the Texans have come by an average of 13.9 points, with the most recent one a 28-16 victory against the eventual AFC South champions December 30. This season has been a much different story for league-worst Houston (2-11), which dropped its 11th in a row by a score of 27-20 at Jacksonville last Thursday before firing coach Gary Kubiak a day later. They’ve turned things over to Wade Phillips on an interim basis. Case Keenum has been named starter against the Colts even though Kubiak benched him late in the third quarter last week. Since throwing for 822 yards with seven TDs and no interceptions in his first three starts, the rookie has thrown for 770 yards with two scores and four picks in his last four.

Confirmed bets

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts -5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (3-25)

San Francisco 49ers -5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (33-14)

Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons +50 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (26-27)

Seattle Seahawks -7 @ New York Giants (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (23-0)

New Orleans Saints -5.5 @ St Louis Rams (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (16-27)

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers -9.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-30)

Leans 

Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons -5.5 $1.91 LOSE (26-27)

Chicago Bears +1 @ Cleveland Browns $1.91 WIN (38-31)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings -53.5 $1.91 LOSE (30-48)

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys +49.5 $1.91 WIN (37-36)

New England Patriots +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins $1.91 LOSE (20-24)

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars +4 $1.91 LOSE (27-20)

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans $1.83 WIN (37-34)Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders -44.5 $1.91 LOSE (56-31)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3 $1.91 WIN (20-30)

EPL for December 16

Aston Villa (5-4-6, 19 points) v Manchester United (6-4-5, 22 points), Villa Park, Birmingham, Monday, December 16, 12.30am

Manchester City duly saluted for us yesterday at a price that was way over the odds. I’m playing the opposite side of the betting slip today as City’s rivals Manchester United head to Aston Villa priced as warm favourites. Their victory over Shakhtar Donetsk was neither convincing nor comforting, so the warm glow of contentment that usually embraces a Manchester United team as their bus is driven through the ornate gates of Villa Park will be more than welcome. Aston Villa's only win in their last 35 league games against Manchester United came courtesy of Gabby Agbonlahor’s headed goal at Old Trafford in December 2009. United’s last EPL defeat at Villa Park came on the opening day of the 1995-96 season. They are unbeaten in 17 subsequent visits (W11, D6). In all competitions, United have lost just one of the last 33 meetings (W27, D5, L1) since a 3-0 League Cup away defeat in 1999. The Villans have failed to score in six of their last nine league fixtures.

But Villa is not without hope here. Manchester United forward Robin van Persie has been ruled out for a month with a thigh injury while Marouane Fellaini and Michael Carrick have back and Achilles injuries respectively and are unavailable. Paul Lambert’s side were quietly putting together a handy little run before last Sunday’s loss at Fulham, which was their first defeat in six, and they have managed consecutive clean sheets at Villa Park for the first time in 12 months. United have already lost as many Premier League games as they did in the whole of last season (5) and they are the first reigning champions to lose five of their first 15 matches since they did so in 2001-02. The Red Devils have not lost three league games in a row since November-December 2001. They are also attempting to avoid going three successive league games without a goal for the first time since May-August 2007. They last suffered that fate within a single season in April 2005.

Confirmed bets

Aston Villa (double chance) v Manchester United (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (0-3)
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool BTS (one unit @ $1.60) LOSE (0-5)

Leans

Aston Villa v Manchester United -2.5 $1.95 LOSE (0-3)

Norwich City WIN $2.85 v Swansea City LOSE (1-1)

Tottenham Hotspur WIN $2.40 v Liverpool LOSE (0-5)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.