Daily tips for December 11

What’s on today

It’s Matchday 6 in the UEFA Champions League with a mix of live and dead rubbers providing myriad betting opportunities across the continent; there’s a huge line-up of 12 NHL games with the Kings’ trip to Montreal the clear pick of the day; Miami heads to Indiana in the highlight of the eight games scheduled in the NBA; also watch for a preview of a big day in racing + more throughout the day.


Racing for December 11

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic – dead 5), Warwick Farm (NSW – good 3), Doomben (Qld – good 3), Strathalbyn (SA – dead 5), Ascot (WA – good 3), Launceston (Tas – night, dead 5). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Kilmore (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic), Cannington (WA), The Gardens (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW).

A 1000-metre scamper for a bunch of untried 2yos is hardly the place to inspire confidence but I love the look of a first starter in the Beveridge Williams Plate to open today’s eight-race card at Caulfield. In Chad Schofield’s first ride back after suspension, the Cox Plate winning jockey will take the reins of #7 Wawail for David Hayes and the Shadwell Stud team. The brown filly is out Lonrho and impressed at her last jumpout. She opened at $6.50 but has already been crunched into $4.20. I suspect the price will only head in one direction.

Confirmed bets

Caulfield R1 #7 Wawail (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.70/$1.90)

Caulfield R3 #5 Good Music (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.70)

Warwick Farm R2 #3 Echo Gal (win) 1st ($1.60)

Strathalbyn R3 #7 Comstrum (win) 1st ($1.80)

Leans

Warwick Farm R3 #1 Sculptures LOSE (4th)

Warwick Farm R7 #1 Toffler (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Caulfield R4 #4 God’s In Him (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)

Caulfield R6 #5 Nesbo (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.70)

Strathalbyn R5 #1 Bit Of A Lair (win) 1st ($3.00)

NHL for December 11

Phoenix Coyotes (16-8-5, 37 pts) @ Colorado Avalanche (20-8-0, 40 pts), Pepsi Center, Denver, CO, Wednesday, December 11, 1.10pm

It’s a great card of NHL action today with several rivalry games and evenly matched contests. My game for preview falls into both categories as the undermanned Coyotes make the short trip to Colorado. While Phoenix is in danger of concluding its trip with three consecutive defeats, they have played well in Colorado of late. The Avalanche are looking to regroup following a disappointing trek of their own. The slumping Coyotes will again be without captain Shane Doan as they go for a fifth win in six visits to the Pepsi Center. Defenseman Derek Morris and forward Lauri Korpikoski will also miss the game. Phoenix (16-8-5) opened its trip with a 6-2 win over Edmonton last Tuesday before losing 4-1 in Calgary the following night. The Coyotes, who lie fifth of seven in the strong Pacific Division of the Western Conference, also came up short Friday in a 3-2 overtime defeat to the side that sits immediately above them, Vancouver.

The Coyotes are 10-1-3 in the overall series dating to March 2010, but the Avalanche have taken the last two match-ups, including a 4-3 overtime win at Phoenix on November 21. The Avalanche (20-8-0) also struggled against the Canucks, falling 3-1 on Sunday to finish a 1-2-0 trip. Jamie McGinn’s (pictured) goal with 7.1 seconds left helped Colorado avoid its first shutout of the season. The previously unbeaten Jean-Sebastien Giguere stopped just 18 shots in dropping to 7-1-0 with a 1.83 goals-against average. Giguere is 0-1-5 with a 2.95 GAA in his last eight games against the Coyotes. Semyon Varlamov was 0-3-1 with a 3.95 GAA over a four-game stretch versus Phoenix before making a season-high 41 saves in last month’s win. Phoenix goalie Mike Smith has gone 8-1-3 against Colorado while compiling a 1.85 GAA, his lowest career mark against any team. This looks a good spot for the Avs to put their season back on track after a stellar start to 2013-14.

Confirmed bets

Phoenix Coyotes @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (3-1)

Boston Bruins @ Calgary Flames -5.5 (one unit @ $1.72) WIN (2-1)

Los Angeles Kings @ Montreal Canadiens -5.5 (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (6-0)

St Louis Blues WIN @ Winnipeg Jets (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (2-1)

Detroit Red Wings WIN @ Florida Panthers (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (2-3)

New York Islanders @ San Jose Sharks +5 (one unit @ $1.87) PUSH (3-2)

Leans

Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres WIN $2.05 WIN (1-2)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Washington Capitals -5.5 $1.74 LOSE (5-6)

Chicago Blackhawks WIN $1.83 @ Dallas Stars WIN (6-2)

New Jersey Devils @ Columbus Blue Jackets -5 $1.83 LOSE (4-5)

Nashville Predators @ New York Rangers -5 $1.91 PUSH (4-1)

Los Angeles Kings @ Montreal Canadiens WIN $1.83 LOSE (6-0)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Edmonton Oilers WIN $1.77 WIN (4-5)

New York Islanders TT -2.5 @ San Jose Sharks $1.70 LOSE (3-2)

NBA for December 11

Miami Heat (16-5, 7-3 away) @ Indiana Pacers (18-3, 9-0 home), Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, Wednesday, December 11, 11.10am

It’s not everyday you see the Miami Heat posted as underdogs, but punters are getting a rare 3.5 start as they head to Indiana in the game of the day. The Pacers just completed a five-game road trip that put them up against some of the top teams in the Western Conference. Their reward for posting a 3-2 record on that excursion is a return home to host the defending champions. Indiana took the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference finals last spring before falling just short and has been waiting for another crack at LeBron James and company. Indiana built up its top record in the Eastern Conference largely on the strength of its team defense and the brilliance of Paul George (pictured). While George continues to excel at the offensive end, the team defence surrendered at least 100 points in four of the five games on the trip after allowing an opponent to reach the century mark just once in the first 16 games. The Pacers allowed the Thunder to shoot a season-high 61 per cent in Sunday’s loss and George (32 points) was the only player to score more than 12.

The Heat are coming to the end of a four-game road trip and knocked off Minnesota and Detroit by a combined 36 points on Saturday and Sunday. Miami looked lifeless in back-to-back losses last week but Dwyane Wade returned on Saturday and watched as James flirted with triple-doubles against both the Timberwolves and the Pistons. The Heat lead the conference with 103.5 points per game, while James is shooting a career-best 59.4 per cent from the field. Wade could play again here after sitting out three of the last four games to protect his ailing knees. Wade shot 3 of 11 and scored only 10 points the last time Miami played in Indiana (a 91-77 loss in Game 6 of the conference finals) but has averaged 24.6 points in his career at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. With Wade hampered of late, Ray Allen has seen his role increase. Allen has averaged 12.5 points in the last four games, shooting 53.1 per cent from the field. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while the ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Indiana.

Confirmed bets

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers 1H UNDER -95.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (47-40)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Detroit Pistons +205.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (121-94)

Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets -193 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (96-104)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks -204 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (101-92)

Leans

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers -190 $1.95 LOSE (94-109)

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers -3.5 $1.95 WIN (84-90)

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors +8 $2.00 LOSE (116-103)

Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 $1.91 @ Atlanta Hawks WIN (101-92)

Boston Celtics +2 $1.99 @ Brooklyn Nets LOSE (96-104)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls NO LEAN

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers +205.5 $1.95 WIN (114-108)

Football (UCL matchday 6) for December 11

Matchday 6 marks the end of the first phase of the UEFA Champions League so let’s have a look at the four groups in action today and the implications of the games scheduled.

Group A: Manchester United is assured qualification while Shakhtar Donetsk and Bayer Leverkusen are scrapping for the second spot. The German side should take all three points at Real Sociedad meaning Shakhtar face a must-win scenario at Old Trafford. It’s not out of the realms of possibility as United will be well below 100 per cent (Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick are out while Shinji Kagawa, Nemanja Vidić, Chris Smalling, Patrice Evra and Marouane Fellaini are doubtful) while the Ukrainian side managed a 1-1 result in the reverse fixture.

Group B: Real Madrid is already assured top spot with the Galatasaray v Juventus clash to decide the other spot (FC Copenhagen cannot finish top two due to their head-to-head record with the other two Group B contenders even if they were to upset Real Madrid). The Spanish giants have gone 5-0 in dead rubbers on matchday 6, so don’t expect them to ease off here. A draw will be enough for Juve to progress and despite the absence of Andrea Pirlo, a point looks well with their reach.

Group C: PSG will finish atop the table on 13 points with the second qualification spot up for grabs. Benfica (equal on 7 points with Olympiakos) hosts the French champions who’ll be without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Alex, Thiago Silva, Marco Verratti and Gregory van der Wiel. Despite those losses, PSG have terrific depth and should take a point back to Paris. Anderlecht has gradually improved throughout the group stage but with so much at stake, I’m expecting the Greek side to secure victory and the second spot up for grabs in Group C.

Group D: Bayern Munich and Manchester City have already locked in positions one and two, but there’ll be plenty of spice in their Matchday 6 clash at the Allianz Arena. Bayern coach Pep Guardiola (pictured) chastised his charged for a slack session on the track on Monday – two days after smashing Werder Bremen 7-0! City face a big game against Arsenal in the EPL on Saturday and I expect they’ll pick some of their big names at home. Combined with their lousy road form this season, City could face an ugly night in Munich.

Confirmed bets

Benfica v Paris Saint Germain -2.5 (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (2-1)

Real Sociedad v Bayer Leverkusen WIN $1.95 WIN (0-1)

Bayern Munich -1.5 v Manchester City (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (2-3)

Galatasaray v Juventus +2.5 (one unit @ $1.72) ABANDONED – WEATHER

Olympiakos -1.5 v Anderlecht (one unit @ $1.97 WIN (3-1)

Leans

Manchester United v Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5 $1.87 LOSE (1-0)

FC Copenhagen v Real Madrid -1 $1.88 WIN (0-2)

Galatasaray v Juventus WIN $1.90 ABANDONED – WEATHER

Benfica v Paris Saint-Germain DRAW $3.60 LOSE (2-1)

Bayern Munich v Manchester City +3.5 $2.03 WIN (2-3)
Viktoria Plzen v CSKA Moscow -2.5 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (2-1)

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