Wednesday 24 April 2013

Daily tips for April 25




Racing for April 25

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Beaudesert (Qld), Gawler (SA), Pinjarra (WA), Gosford (NSW), Swan Hill (Vic), Yarra Valley (Vic), Kalgoorlie (WA), Bathurst (NSW), Darwin (NT)
Harness racing: Coolamon (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Mildura (Vic), Penrith (NSW), Northam (WA)
Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Hobart (Tas), Dapto (NSW), Mandurah (WA)

There’s a huge program of ANZAC Day racing scheduled around the country highlighted by the Listed VRC St Leger over 2800m at Flemington. Remarkably, the first running of this race pre-dates the Melbourne Cup by four years to 1857!

While the honour roll includes Phar Lap and Tulloch, the St Leger isn’t rated among the top staying tests but has attracted a decent enough field this year. Indeed, our best of the day comes up here as #1 Hippopus backs-up after finishing fifth in the ATC Australian Derby to It’s A Dundeel. All nine of the 3yo colt’s starts have been north of the border, so we respect the decision by Gai Waterhouse to go with Craig Williams here.

The big question mark is whether he will stay the distance, having won up to only 1900m although the High Chapparal-Straight Eight bloodlines are both littered with champion stayers. We’re tipping he will, and salute at a good thing’s price of $2.25, with #2 Serpent the main danger.

Suggested bet: Flemington R6 #1 Hippopus WIN (two units) 1st $2.30

Other racing tips

Yarra Valley R1 #7 Stinchar (WIN) 1st $1.30
Warwick Farm R2 #1 Liberty’s Choice (WIN) LOSE (2nd)
Flemington R3 #12 Vain Queen (WIN) 1st $2.10
Flemington R5 #15 Khalifa (WIN) LOSE (4th)
Beaudesert R4 #1 Cash In (E/W) LOSE (2nd)
Gawler R6 #9 Rose of Lincoln (E/W) 2nd $1.90

Harness racing tip: Mildura R8 #6 Mista Taptoe Lombo (win) LOSE (2nd)
Greyhound racing tip: Dapto R4 #2 Run Dee Cee (win) LOSE (2nd)

NRL (rd 7) for April 25

Roosters v Dragons, Allianz Stadium, Thursday, April 25, 4pm

The high-flying Roosters will be focused on shattering the Dragons’ tight grip on traditional ANZAC Day meetings when they lock horns with the back-on-track visitors. Trent Robinson’s squad have been the surprise packet of the 2013 season thus far, turning around their paper-thin defence of the past few years to rank among the Telstra Premiership’s hardest nuts to crack.

But the rock-hard resistance that has seen them already notch three shut-outs through just six rounds of the competition will be tested by a resurgent St George Illawarra, who will play with confidence after stringing together a hat-trick of victories over the Sharks, Knights and Wests Tigers – albeit their last win a lucky escape after surrendering a 12-nil lead with 15 minutes to play.

The Dragons have won eight of 11 ANZAC Day games between these sides but that will only serve as motivation for the Roosters. The Dragons will struggle for points in the face of a rock solid defence, meaning the total score is likely to also stay low.

Suggested bet: Roosters -9.5 (two units) WIN, game total -36.5 (one unit) LOSE (34-10)

Other tips

Storm -14.5 v Warriors LOSE (28-18)


AFL (rd 5) for April 25

Essendon v Collingwood, MCG, Thursday, April 25, 2.40pm

It’s the 19th time these clubs have met in their now traditional ANZAC Day clash. The Magpies hold the advantage on the day, winning 10 of the game to the Bombers' seven. There was one draw – in the first game in 1995.


To the surprise of most, Essendon sits on top of the ladder, unbeaten after a challenging start to the season. Without key trio Michael Hurley (ankle), Dustin Fletcher (groin) and Paddy Ryder (suspension) they might be susceptible, although the Magpies also have a number of experienced players missing.

Collingwood could hardly have been more impressive in the third quarter of its win over Richmond last week but we fancy the Bombers to give them a much closer run here, which could again go down to the wire.

Suggested bet: Game total -200.5 (two units) WIN, Essendon +8.5 (one unit) WIN (121-75)

St Kilda v Sydney, Westpac Stadium, Wellington, NZ, Thursday, April 25, 5.50pm

The 1-3 Saints meet the reigning premiers in the first match for AFL premiership points to be played internationally; there have been two pre-season matches previously played at Westpac Stadium in Wellington, in 2000 and 2001, but never has a home-and-away game been played outside Australia.

A common feature of Wellington is wind, and tonight promises testing conditions for players with rain also forecast. The layout of the ground is similar to the SCG, which will suit the Swans who will be keen to atone for last week’s loss to Geelong.

The game total line is yet to be released, but we’re expecting the bookies to open at about 187.5 (currently showing on TAB Sportsbet). If that’s the case, we’ll smash the under as that total has only been surpassed once in the last five between two sides renowned for low scoring affairs.

Suggested bet: Game total -185.5 (three units) WIN, Sydney 1-39 (one unit) WIN (63-79)


Come in spinner!

A true-blue Aussie tradition, the game of two-up is only legal on ANZAC Day. Brought to Australia as ‘pitch and toss’ by English and Irish immigrants, it was popular as far back as the gold rush days and became part of the ANZAC tradition when played by soldiers during WWI. As a result it’s become synonymous with April 25, during which pubs across the country will host games. And it couldn’t be much easier to play!


• Two coins are placed on a paddle (kip) by the ‘spinner’. You and fellow punters will need to surround them and commence bellowing things like “tennahead!” (i.e. I want to bet $10 on both coins landing heads up).

• Want to take that bet? Lock eyes and vigorously wave your $10 in the head-bettor’s direction, then give them your cash if they accept (heads holds the money).

• The boxer (referee) yells ‘come in spinner’, to cease betting then the coins are flicked in the air. They have to reach higher than the spinner’s head and fall within the circle to count as valid toss. If it’s heads, you lost. Tails? You won! One of each? The spinner keeps tossing till there's a result.

• Celebrate/console yourself with a beer; repeat!

NBA playoffs for April 25

Eastern Conference round 1, game 2: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, Thursday, April 25, 9.40am (Pacers lead 1-0)

The Atlanta Hawks are ready to start mixing it up with Indiana. They don't have a choice. After complaining about how the first playoff game was called, then getting chastised by their own coach for their poor effort in the loss, the Hawks spent two days assessing the damage and how to counter the Pacers' tough, in-your-face brand of basketball. The simple solution: Punch back.

But even the Hawks’ best is unlikely to be enough to overcome a Pacers side that has lost just 11 of 41 at home this season. At face value, the market isn’t offering a lot of value however the ‘under’ is 12-4 in the Hawks’ last 16 conference quarter-final games, while the Pacers have fallen shot of that number in six of their last eight after scoring 100 or more points.

Suggested bet: Game total -186.5 (two units) LOSE, Pacers -7 (one unit) WIN (98-113)

Other tips

Western Conference round 1, game 2: Rockets @ Thunder +212 LOSE (102-107)
Western Conference round 1, game 2: Lakers @ Spurs -8.5 WIN (91-102)

• Place a bet on a “head to head” market during the NBA playoffs match and if your team score 100 points or more but lose, our sports betting partner Centrebet will refund your first bet up to $100 cash!


MLB for April 25

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, Petco Park, San Diego, CA, Thursday, April 25, 12.10pm

The Milwaukee Brewers have been a cash cow for us in recent times, they continue to roll and aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. The slumping San Diego Padres will be glad to see them leave town. Seeking a 10th consecutive win, the Brewers try to sweep the Padres for the first time in 10 seasons. The Padres (5-15), meanwhile, find themselves on the verge of dropping eight straight home games for the first time since 2008.

The Padres will try to get back on track against Marco Estrada (2-0, 4.50 ERA), who allowed three runs and seven hits over six innings Friday in a 5-4 victory over the Chicago Cubs. We just can’t see how the Padres will be able to reverse their fortunes with Edinson Volquez (0-3, 8.84) on the mound.

Suggested bet: Milwaukee Brewers WIN (two units) LOSE (1-2)

Other tips

Cubs @ Reds WIN WIN (0-1)
Yankees WIN @ Rays LOSE (0-3)
Cardinals WIN @ Nationals WIN (4-2)
Diamondbacks @ Giants -1.5 LOSE (3-2)
Indians @ White Sox WIN WIN (2-3)
Pirates WIN @ Phillies WIN (5-3)
Rangers @ Angels +1.5 LOSE (11-3)
Athletics @ Red Sox WIN WIN (5-6)

NHL for April 25

Los Angeles Kings @ Detroit Red Wings, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI, Thursday, April 25, 9.40am

The Los Angeles Kings are already returning to the playoffs while the Detroit Red Wings could use more consistent scoring in their quest to reach the postseason as they eye a fourth straight home win over their west coast rivals. The road weary Kings face a quick turnaround after playing in Minnesota last night against a team that has played its best hockey this season on its home ice and is in desperate need of a win.

Detroit (21-16-8) sits ninth in the conference, one point back of Columbus for the eighth and final playoff position and two in front of Dallas. This contest has an excellent chance of staying under the five-goal total with the Red Wings also worth a play to win outright as they are 5-1 in the past six they’ve played on a day’s rest.

Suggested bet: Game total -5 (two units) WIN, Red Wings WIN (one unit) WIN (1-3)

Other tips

Maple Leafs @ Lightning WIN WIN (2-5)
Blackhawks WIN @ Oilers WIN (4-1)
Sharks @ Coyotes -5 WIN (1-2)

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