Wednesday 10 April 2013

Daily tips for April 11



US Masters preview for April 11-14

No field is as elite and exclusive as the Masters. The course, last modified in 2006, is one that requires hardened Tour experience. Only one player has won on debut, and very few have managed to earn a Green Jacket on just their second visit.

Length is an advantage, but don’t be fooled into believing it’s everything. At 7435 yards, this isn’t the longest par 72 we'll see all season and there are two key reasons that length is considered important: one is that par-five performance tends to be essential, and the other is that there is no ‘rough’ as we know it, simply a first cut which does not punish the errant in the way that a US Open set-up would.


So we need a big-time performer with course experience, an ability to play par fives well, possibly with a big drive in the bag and certainly with a tidy short game. Phil Mickelson (pictured above) and Tiger Woods have both stressed that avoiding three putts is essential here, and that requires two things: a dab hand with the flat stick if necessary, but first and foremost the ability and experience to miss in the right places.

As far as Woods goes, it simply comes down to price as $4.50 is simply too short. Every stat going tells you he will win but Phil Mickelson ($13) is better value, and he makes the staking plan as a saver. Three Masters titles in nine years tell their own tale.

Top of the list is Dustin Johnson, about who $26 makes a great deal of appeal. At the start of the season, when DJ won in Hawaii, all the talk was that this was the guy to serve it up to Rory McIlroy – the best of the new US generation. It was a belief born from his performances in the other three majors, a fine Ryder Cup, and a record-breaking set of PGA Tour form figures since he left college.

As far as Augusta National goes, it should be a perfect fit for Johnson, even if his results don't quite show that so far. He's one of the longest hitters on the planet, can work the ball both ways, and has ranked 12th, sixth, 14th and second over the last four years for par-five birdie or better conversion.

Next on the list is Charl Schwartzel, who also appeals at $26. To win the Masters on just his second try was a sensational effort from Schwartzel, made all the more impressive by the fact that he'd never really had a chance to win a major before yet strode through the door with four birdies in four fabulous closing holes.

It was a victory aided by some dinner-time advice from none other than Jack Nicklaus, who told Charl exactly how he used to approach every single hole when they met prior to the 2011 tournament.

Third on the list is Rickie Fowler ($51) – the 24-year-old has only played in the event twice, but finishes of 38th and 27th are enough to suggest that he has what it takes to compete here for many years to come.

Rickie isn't the longest hitter on Tour by any means but he can get it out there, and his victory in last season's Quail Hollow Championship speaks to how well he can play a tough, championship-standard par 72 of this sort of length.

And let's put up Nick Watney ($71) as the last pick. Having finished seventh in 2010 and lost a three-shot lead in the final round of the same season’s PGA Championship, Watney was speaking in 2011 as one of the fancied players, but could only finish 46th. Last year, he simply wasn't playing well but managed to finish 32nd.

Suggested bets: Phil Mickelson (WIN); Dustin Johnson (E/W); Charl Schwartzel (E/W); Rickie Fowler (E/W); Nick Watney (E/W)

Racing for April 11

Horse racing: Ballarat (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Beaudesert (Qld), Albany (WA)
Harness racing: Gold Coast (Qld), Kilmore (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Penrith (NSW), Mildura (Vic), Narrogin (WA)
Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Dapto (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Hobart (Tas), Maitland (NSW), Mandurah (WA)

Our best of the day comes up in the seventh at Hawkesbury where they’ll be racing on a dead (4). The White Balloon Boutique Maiden will be run over 1300m and we’re expecting the Bart Cummings-trained #9 Kim Dynasty to salute for her first win.

Kim Dynasty has shown good promise during her short career to date and produced a respectable second on resuming last start at Newcastle, working to the line solidly where she finished a half-length behind the Gai Waterhouse-trained debutant Lone Ballad.

Kim Dynasty lines up this afternoon in a race of minimal depth and added fitness second run back from a spell rising to a more suitable distance, improvement on her last start is expected.

Suggested bet: Hawkesbury R7 #9 Kim Dynasty (win two units) WIN ($2.60)

Other racing tips for April 11

Beaudesert R7 #2 Karl the Great (E/W) WIN $2.60/$1.30
Ballarat R3 #6 Sistine Demon (E/W) WIN $2.60/$1.30

Suggested harness racing bet: Mildura R5 #1 Ourcrowninn (win) WIN
Suggested greyhound racing bet: Sandown Park R11 #6 Veyron Bale (win) LOSE

MLB for April 11

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, Petco Park, San Diego, CA, Thursday, April 11, 12.15pm

Chad Billingsley finally has the chance to continue the success he enjoyed before an elbow injury prematurely ended his 2012 season while former Dodger Eric Stults looks to build on a victorious season debut when he takes the mound for the Padres.

Stults’ sole outing against the Dodgers last September saw his foes’ bats held to one run over six innings. In San Diego’s seven home outings in 2012 with Stults starting, they held opponents to just 16 earned runs. Billingsley's outing at Petco last year moved the under to 9-1-1 mark in the 28-year-old’s last 11 road outings against the Padres.

Suggested bet: Game total -7 (two units) PUSH

Other tips

Reds WIN @ Cardinals LOSE
Pirates @ Diamondbacks -1.5 WIN
Athletics WIN @ Angels WIN

NHL for April 11

Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Thursday, April 11, 11am

Vancouver has outscored opponents 11-2 during its three-game winning streak and holds a slim lead on Minnesota for the Northwest Division lead. It also has Ryan Kesler back after the forward missed 20 games with a fractured foot.
Calgary, meanwhile, has continued to struggle. It had dropped five straight before Monday’s 3-1 victory at Colorado, and it hasn't beaten anyone but the NHL-worst Avalanche since a win over St Louis on March 24. And with Canucks’ goaltender Cory Schneider in red-hot form, it’s hard to see that stat being corrected here.

Suggested bet: Canucks -1.5 (three units) WIN

Other tips

Bruins @ Devils +5 LOSE
Coyotes @ Oilers -5.5 WIN
Avalanche @ Ducks -1.5 LOSE

NBA for April 11

Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA, Thursday, April 10, 12.30pm

The Los Angeles Clippers have already clinched the first Pacific Division title in franchise history, but they'd like to build even more momentum heading into the playoffs.

As they try to set a club record for single-season home victories, the Clippers can complete their first season sweep of Minnesota in 20 years with a fifth consecutive win over the Timberwolves.

The Wolves are 12-9 cashing the over this season with no rest, and we expect their already poor defence to give up plenty of points. The last four times these two teams have played in LA, the total has gone over.

Suggested bet: Game total +199 (two units) WIN

Other tips

Nets +3.5 @ Celtics WIN
Suns @ Mavericks -13.5 LOSE
Spurs @ Nuggets WIN WIN

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