AFL (R11)
for June 7
Essendon v
Carlton, MCG, Friday, June 7, 7.50pm
It’s the first of the three bye rounds, with each side scheduled to play only twice over the next three weeks. Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Richmond, Fremantle, Footscray and Hawthorn have the week off. But the bye is furthest thing from the minds of the Essendon and Carlton players ahead of this Friday night classic at a slippery MCG to kick-off the round featuring the sides holding fifth and sixth on the ladder in the latest chapter of a rivalry that stretches back to the 19th century.
Since a
draw in 2011, the smallest margin has been five goals (Carlton’s last four wins
over Essendon have all been by more than 10 goals). Michael Hurley returns for
the Bombers while exciting youngster Joe Daniher will make his debut. The Blues
have Eddie Betts and Kane Lucas back but there are question marks over the
fitness of Chris Judd and Andrew Walker. Carlton may have won six of their past
seven, but the record flatters and this looms as their first genuine test in
several weeks.
Suggested
bet: Essendon WIN (1.5 units @ $1.85) WIN, game total -189.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (77-72)
Racing for
June 7
Horse
racing: Swan Hill (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT). Harness
racing: Melton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Port Pirie
(SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing:
Casino (NSW), Mt Gambier (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld),
Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Winnellie Park (NT)
After a
week of rain-affected tracks, it’s good to see a dead (4) on offer for today’s
meeting at Grafton in northern NSW with a big 10-race card being run by the
Clarence River Jockey Club. We like the look of the top weight and top rater in
race 6, the Ace Glass & Aluminium Open Hcp over 1120m. Trained by Jim
Delaney at Taree, #1 Floral Insight will jump from barrier 5 hauling 62kg, and
that’s after Kasie Stanley’s two-kilogram claim! However, this 5yo gelding has
carried big weights to victory in two of his last four starts, including a
metro win at Warwick Farm on April 25 when Sam Clipperton carried 59kg. He
should dispatch this bunch with ease.
Suggested
bet: Grafton R6 #1 Floral Insight WIN (three units) 1st ($3.10)
Other tips
Grafton R1
#5 Starlist (place) 2nd ($2.60)
Ipswich R1
#7 Country Charm (win) LOSE (2nd)
Swan Hill
R3 #12 Oceanographer (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Swan Hill
R7 #5 Five O’Clock (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Canberra
R6 #9 Rose of Falvelon (E/W) 1st ($2.30/$1.50)
Singapore
R7 #2 Goal Keeper (win)
Harness
racing tip: Melton R12 #6 Jilliby Ling (win) 1st ($1.60)
Greyhound
racing tip: Mandurah R8 #6 Sveta Monelli (win) 1st ($2.30)
MLB for June 7
Atlanta
Braves (37-22, 16-15 away) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (25-33, 16-16 home), Dodger
Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Friday, June 7, 12.10pm
Based on
the way the Atlanta Braves have played of late, Los Angeles’ Zack Greinke could
have a hard time trying to end his recent struggles overall and against the NL
East leaders. The right-hander looks to avoid a fourth consecutive rough outing
and help the Dodgers prevent the visiting Braves from a sixth straight victory.
After
losing two of three to open an eight-game run at home, Atlanta (37-22) won the
last five, capped with a 5-0 victory over Pittsburgh. Atlanta homered 29 times
and posted a 2.48 ERA during that span. With a three-game home sweep of Los
Angeles (25-33) last month, Atlanta has won six of eight against the Dodgers.
Veteran Atlanta
starter Tim Hudson (4-4, 4.80) is 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA in five starts since
beating the New York Mets on May 5, but he allowed an unearned run and three
hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 2-1, 10-inning victory over Washington on Sunday. The
Braves hope the recent stride Hudson made will help improve his performance on
the road, where he is 1-4 with a 7.67 ERA in six starts. He’s 1-2 with a 5.03
ERA in seven at Dodger Stadium.
Suggested
bet: Braves WIN (1.5 units @ $1.93) LOSE, game total -7 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (0-5)
Other tips
Orioles -1.5 @ Astros WIN (3-1)
Rangers @ Red Sox -8.5 LOSE (3-6)
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals WIN WIN (8-12)
Twins WIN @ Royals LOSE (3-7)
Phillies @ Brewers +9 LOSE (5-1)
Athletics WIN @ White Sox WIN (5-4)
Padres @ Rockies +9.5 WIN (6-5)
Yankees WIN @ Mariners WIN (6-1)
Mets @ Nationals +7 POSTPONED
NHL
playoffs for June 7
Western
Conference finals, game 4: Chicago Blackhawks @ Los Angeles Kings, Staples
Center, Los Angeles, CA, Friday, June 5, 11.10am (Blackhawks lead 2-1)
If the Chicago
Blackhawks are going to end the Los Angeles Kings’ perfect post-season on home
ice in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, they’ll have to do it without
their top defenseman. Duncan Keith will sit out this game under a one-game
suspension for high-sticking Los Angeles' Jeff Carter. Keith hit Carter with a
one-handed blow in the second period of the Kings’ 3-1 victory in Game 3,
opening a 20-stitch gash on the star forward’s face and cracking three of his
teeth. Chicago has a 2-1 series lead and could take control with a win in Game
4, but the uncertainty of Keith’s fate hung over both teams’ practices. He is
enormously important to the powerful Blackhawks, easily leading the club in ice
time and ranking third in playoff scoring with 10 points.
The
Blackhawks realise Keith’s absence won't matter if they can't figure out how to
crack the Kings’ incredible home-ice advantage. Los Angeles hasn't lost at
Staples Center since March 23, and the Kings have won nine straight playoff games
in their downtown building dating to last season’s Stanley Cup clincher. Low
scores are no surprise in a tense playoff series between two elite teams with
strong defences, but Chicago forward Patrick Kane’s struggles are increasingly
inexplicable. The six-time 20-goal scorer hasn't found the net in seven games,
and he’s scored just two in the post-season after netting 23 in the
lockout-shortened regular season.
Suggested
bet: Kings WIN (two units @ $1.80) LOSE, game total +4.5 (two units @ $1.80) WIN (3-2)
NBA
playoffs for June 7
NBA Finals
game 1: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Friday,
June 7, 11.10am
The Spurs
have been resting up since finishing a sweep of Memphis in the Western
Conference finals more than a week ago while the Heat were forced to overcome a
rugged Indiana team and the struggles of Dwyane Wade
and Chris Bosh
in a seven-game series that wrapped up on Sunday. That set up a finals showdown
between teams built in decidedly different ways but with mutual respect. This
series also gives LeBron James a chance to pay the Spurs back for their 2007
romp, when they forced his then-Cavaliers into the worst offensive performance
in finals history.
The
numbers favour the Heat here. In NBA Finals history, the
home team is 50-16 in Game 1 (75.8 per cent). The Spurs are 1-4 against the
Heat since 2010, their worst record against any team. And, San Antonio has been
outscored by 9.4 points per 100 possessions by Miami, their worst net rating
against any team in that span. The last time the Heat and Spurs squared off
with James/Wade/Bosh and Duncan/Parker/Ginobili all active was March 14, 2011. The Heat ‘big 3’ have outscored the Spurs ‘big 3’ by more than 18 PPG.
In
contrast, teams that played in at least one Game 7 prior to the NBA Finals are
just 23-25 in the Finals and the Spurs have been outstanding during these
playoffs. They have the best straight up record of any NBA team this
postseason, and during their 14-playoff games they have gone 12-2 SU and 10-4
ATS. San Antonio has been equally impressive on the road in these playoffs. The
Spurs are 6-1 both SU and ATS during the playoffs when playing away from Texas,
their only loss coming at Golden State in Game 4 of that series.
Suggested
bet: Spurs +5 (two units @ $1.87) WIN, game total -190.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (92-88)
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