Daily tips for June 18

Football for June 18

World Cup 2014 Asian final qualifying round matchday 10; Australia v Iraq, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Tuesday, June 18, 7.30pm

Place your first bet on the 1st Goal Scorer market and if you miss out but your player scores at any other stage of the match, Centrebet will give you your money back!

Three automatic spots, and two play-off berths are on the line as Asia's fourth qualifying round for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil goes down to the wire on Tuesday. Australia, lying second in Group B, hosts Iraq tonight with the Socceroos well placed to qualify behind Japan. Australia should do so with ease here as Iraq are out of the running and have brought an under-strength squad to Sydney. Should the hosts stumble, however, it will provide Oman, trailing by a single point, with a chance to take the second qualifying spot with a victory in Jordan.

The Socceroos cruised through to South Africa 2010 with two matches to spare but it’s been a tougher road this time. Holger Osieck’s side have found their form recently, while the Iraqis received a major blow to their campaign after talisman Younis Mahmoud elected to retire from international football. Despite this being one of the weaker Australian sides of recent years in terms of individual talent, Osieck has them performing well as a team with their ability to spread the ball  taking the pressure off Australia’s anaemic attack. However, Iraq is a much sturdier opponent than Jordan, and this could be a real grind.

Suggested bet: Game total -2.5 goals (three units @ $2.00) WIN (1-0)

AFL Brownlow Medal update

As I wrote on our PokerMedia Australia site late last year, Brownlow night is one of the great punting nights of the year for one very good reason. Umpires. Brownlow voting is still the duty of the umpires and, while we have no idea what goes on their minds, we do know that they vote pretty much the same way year-to-year!

Combined with the ability to watch every minute of every game, and astute followers of the game can come up with a pretty good idea of how the Brownlow voting is going to play out. I’ve been tracking Brownlow voting for almost a decade and have come up with several key indicators for winner, which include

• Played 100-200 games

• Need to poll in at least nine games

• Need to poll at least 20 BM votes

• Played in at least 19 games

• No key position players

• Team finished with winning record

• Ave 25.0 disposals per game or more

• Ave 5.0 clearances per game or more

• Kicked 20 goals min

• Positive free for/frees against ratio

• Not been reported

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure that Gary Ablett jnr is in the best form of his career and, not surprisingly, we have the little master at the top of voting after 10 rounds, but only just. Not to wish Gary jnr any harm, but there’s no way we’re taking $2! We’ll update our ‘Brownlow count’ during the second half of the AFL season when value picks emerge.

Gary Ablett (Gold Coast, 17-19 votes), current price: $2

Jobe Watson (Essendon, 16-18 votes), current price: $9

Daniel Hannebery (Sydney, 12-14 votes), current price: $12

Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide, 11-13 votes), current price: $12

Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn, 10-12 votes), current price: $12

Travis Boak (Port Adelaide, 9-11 votes), current price: $51

Steve Johnson (Geelong, 9-11 votes), current price: $21

Dane Swan (Collingwood, 9-11 votes), current price: $21

Nat Fyfe (Fremantle, 9-11 votes), current price: $15

Brett Deledio (Richmond, 9-11 votes), current price: $21

Racing for June 18

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Kembla Grange (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Quirindi (NSW), Royal Ascot (UK). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Kilmore (Vic), Northam (WA). Greyhound racing: Bendigo (Vic), Devonport (Tas), Gawler (SA), Goulburn (NSW), Horsham (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Lismore (NSW), Warragul (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Mandurah (WA).

There’s no Black Caviar this year, but there’s still a strong Aussie presence as Royal Ascot kicks-off in England tonight. The Danny O'Brien trained Fastnet Rock colt Shamexpress is a popular pick to win the £350,000 Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes (1000m) behind the Mike De Kock trained Shea Shea and Reckless Abandon on day one. The colt steps out for the first time since winning the Group 1 Newmarket Hcp over 1200m at Flemington on March 9.

Australian-trained runners – Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti and Scenic Blast – have won the King’s Stand Stakes four times in the past 11 years. Meanwhile, adopted Aussie and former Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (USA) is all the rage to win the first race of the carnival – the £350,000, Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes (1600m).

• We won’t have to wait long for our best of the day to (hopefully) salute in race 1 at Geelong on the synthetic track today – the GRC Function & Event Centre Maiden Plate over 1000 metres. #2 Newham debuted here a fortnight ago and, although racing greenly, he finished just 2.5 lengths behind hot favourite Beau Jez (a placegetter at Group 3 level). John Robertson stays aboard for local trainer Michael Roebuck, with the blinkers off and winkers going on this 3yo gelding.

Suggested bet: Geelong R1 #2 Newham E/W (two units) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Geelong R2 #1 Miromiro (win) 1st ($1.90)

Geelong R4 #3 Hales (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Kembla Grange R4 #11 Vassar (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Townsville R7 #9 Jabiru Dreaming (E/W) 1st ($3.00/$1.90)

Ascot R1 #2 Animal Kingdom (win) LOSE (U/P)

Ascot R2 #15 Swiss Spirit (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ascot R4 #16 War Command (E/W) 1st ($21.00/$5.40)

Harness racing tip: Kilmore R5 #5 Gypsy Babe (win) 1st ($2.00)

Greyhounds tip: Warragul R9 #8 Black Magic Opal (win) 1st ($1.20)

NHL Stanley Cup Finals for June 18

Game 3: Chicago Blackhawks @ Boston Bruins, TD Garden, Boston, MA, Tuesday, June 18, 10.10am

After putting in more than the traditional 60 minutes in the first two contests of the Stanley Cup final, the Boston Bruins will be out to seize an edge in the series when they return home for Game 3 versus the Chicago Blackhawks. Boston rebounded after suffering a hard-luck 4-3 loss in triple-overtime in Game 1 as Daniel Paille netted the winner in the extra session for a 2-1 triumph on Saturday. Tuukka Rask weathered a furious first-period storm to finish with 33 saves in the victory. Patrick Sharp scored his ninth goal of the postseason to pull into a share of the league lead with Boston's David Krejci, but the Presidents' Trophy-winning Blackhawks were unable to beat Rask again.

Chicago is no stranger to going the extra mile, having posted a double-overtime series-clinching victory over reigning champion Los Angeles in the Western Conference final before enduring the first two tilts of this series. The 2010 and '11 Stanley Cup champions were in Boston on Sunday for the third game of the best-of-seven finals on Monday night. But as if their task wasn’t tough enough, Jaromir Jagr, one of the all-time greats in hockey, turned back the clock to be a factor in Game 2. He led the Bruins with five shots on goal and almost scored the winning goal if it weren’t for an unfriendly post.

Neither team skated on the off-day, instead choosing to conserve their energy after playing 10 periods while trading overtime victories. We’re expecting this game to open up as the Blackhawks push the line to break off the defensive shackles of the Bruins, which means extra pressure on Rask and Chicago’s Corey Crawford. But there is simply no quit in this Boston team – their steely determination was evidenced initially by Gregory Campbell who stayed on his shift even after getting his leg broken and Nathan Horton who summoned the courage to contribute 21 minutes in Game 2 despite a seriously injured shoulder.

Suggested bet: Bruins WIN (2.5 units @ $1.83) WIN, game total +5 (1.5 units @ $2.20) LOSE (2-0)

MLB for June 18

Oakland Athletics (42-29, 20-17 away) @ Texas Rangers (38-31, 19-14 home), Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX, Tuesday, June 18, 10.10am

We’re coming off our first losing day of the month but it’s a new week in the MLB with the All-Star break looming over the horizon. Back to business, but our job doesn’t get any easier with a tricky card of 12 games. We’ve settled on the Oakland A’s, who’ve taken control of the AL West in part because of the Texas Rangers’ struggles on their longest home stand of the season. The A's will try to add to those woes while padding their advantage in a four-game series that starts here.

Oakland trailed by one game in the division after Texas won the opener of an 11-game home stand last Monday. The Rangers (38-31) haven't recorded a victory since, and the A's (42-29) have moved three games ahead. Texas has been outscored 34-8 in its first six-game losing streak since April 15-21, 2010, and its longest at home since a seven-game skid from July 20-August 3, 2005. The Rangers didn't get on the scoreboard until the ninth inning in Sunday’s 7-2 loss to Toronto.

Facing Dan Straily (4-2, 4.45 ERA) could provide another stern test for the Rangers, who haven’t dropped seven in a row since April 18-24, 2008. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last five starts, with the A's winning each. That stretch started by outdueling Yu Darvish in a 1-0 road win on May 21. The match-up is with a struggling Nick Tepesch (3-6, 4.30). The right-hander has given up 11 runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. He yielded five over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.

Suggested bet: Athletics WIN (two units @ $2.01) LOSE, game total +9.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (7-8)

Other tips

IL: Rockies WIN $2.33 @ Blue Jays LOSE (0-2)

AL: Royals WIN $1.75 @ Indians WIN (2-1)

AL: Orioles @ Tigers +8.5 $1.83 LOSE (1-5)

AL: White Sox @ Astros WIN -8 $1.91 WIN (4-2)

AL: Mariners @ Angels +8 $1.95 WIN (3-11)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals -1.5 $2.10 WIN (2-5)

NL: Nationals @ Phillies WIN $1.98 WIN (4-5)

NL: Mets @ Braves -1.5 $2.18 LOSE (1-2)

NL: Marlins @ Diamondbacks -1.5 $2.10 LOSE (3-2)

NL: Padres WIN $1.98 @ Giants +7.5 WIN (5-3)

NL: Padres @ Giants +7.5 $2.10 WIN (5-3)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication