Daily tips for June 30

NRL (R16) for June 30

Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans, Hunter Stadium, Newcastle, Sunday, June 30, 2pm

Hot on the heels of their thrilling 18-12 win over Melbourne on Monday night, the Gold Coast travel to Hunter Stadium this Sunday with the lure of a top-four spot beckoning should they make it four wins from their past five starts. It has been quite a turnaround for the Titans in 2013. Having looked somewhat tired in recent seasons, the injection of a youthful halves combination in Aidan Sezer and new arrival Albert Kelly alongside a monstrous forward pack and rejuvenated centre Jamal Idris has seen them gradually place themselves among the title contenders. They’ve also been a great value bet on the road and we’ll buy a few points on Centrebet expecting they’ll again deliver here.

It’s no secret that the Knights are always a difficult proposition at Hunter Stadium and with their season on the line they should turn up ready to play. But they will also need to find significant improvement if they are to topple the Titans. Having sat as high as sixth, four losses in a row have seen Wayne Bennett’s charges drop two points out of the eight and they won’t want to lose any further ground as the competition approaches the business end. If they are to arrest their slide, Newcastle will need to solve the issue they’ve been having with the ball in hand: those four consecutive losses has seen them score just 52 points at 13 per game including just 12 points against the Warriors and eight in a loss to St George Illawarra. – Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com

Suggested bet: Titans +6.5 PYOL (two units @ $1.68) LOSE (46-16)

Other tips

New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos +42.5 LOSE (18-16)

Racing for June 30

Horse racing: Sale (Vic), Coonamble (NSW), Warrnambool (Vic), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Kalgoorlie (WA), Moruya (NSW). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Ballarat (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Strathalbyn (SA), Wagga (NSW), Mt Gambier (SA), Healesville (Vic), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic).

For something a bit different, we thought we’d take a look at this afternoon’s Industry Day card at Tabcorp Park Menangle, featuring the finals of the Alabar Breeders Challenge and the Group 1 $200,000 Len Smith Mile. The feature is too tough due to the draw – Excel Stride looks the likely winner he can hold the lead from the pole while Garnet River is a decent E/W chance. Our best of the day comes up in race 8, the 4yo Colts and Geldings edition of the Breeders Challenge over 2300m. #7 Heza Presidente looks the most likely leader with #11 Mach Beauty set to take over mid-race and run away with the win. Once an emergency for the Miracle Mile, he’s better than this bunch and his lousy draw just gives us a better price.

Suggested bet: Menangle R8 #11 Mach Beauty WIN (two units @ $2.15) WIN (1st)

Other racing tips

Sale R2 #11 Strada Saliente (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warrnambool R4 #6 Macedonian (win) LOSE (3rd)

Warrnambool R6 #1 Clang and Dazzle (win) LOSE (4th)

Warrnambool R7 #1 Bashboy (win) 1st ($1.60)

Coonamble R7 #2 Sutton Queen (win) 1st ($2.20)

Moruya R6 #4 Code Word (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Sunshine Coast R6 #4 Daneomite (win) LOSE (2nd)

Sunshine Coast R8 #8 Power Plant (E/W) 1st ($3.40/$1.40)

Kalgoorlie R1 #3 Sarabi (win) 1st ($1.70)

Greyhound racing tips: Healesville R2 #3 Ima Legend (win) 1st ($1.50), R3 #1 It’s Iron Hide (win) 1st ($1.50), R8 #2 Early Return (win) 1st ($1.50)

AFL (R14) for June 30

Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions, Aurora Stadium, Launceston, Sunday, June 30, 1.10pm

We witnessed one of the more amazing quarters of football at the Gabba last Sunday when the Lions erased a 38-point three quarter-time deficit to stun the Cats. A strong finish is always a good indicator for the following week, to go with their ability to clear the ball from the centre, but it gets no easier for Michael Voss’ side as they jet into a wintry Launceston to face the ladder-leading Hawks, who’ve lost Grant Birchall for several weeks. They’ve been workman-like in recent weeks but have still managed to compile an 11-1 record. Hawthorn has won 12 of its past 13 matches in Launceston, including seven by more than 50 points. The Lions have made four trips to Aurora Stadium for only one win – against the Hawks in 2009. Their three losses at the venue have been by an average of 62 points.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn -42.5 WIN, game total -192.5 LOSE (143-85)

North Melbourne v GWS Giants, Etihad Stadium, Sunday, June 30, 3.20pm

Such is the topsy-turvy nature of the AFL competition, the Kangaroos are rated a 75-point favourite here despite managing just four goals in a demoralising 38-point loss to Freo. Fresh from the bye, the Giants could be primed for a big tilt here – they gave North an almighty scare when they met in round 23 last season. Entering that match, North knew a percentage-boosting win could lift it above seventh-placed Fremantle and secure a home elimination final, but the Roos were flat out just beating the Giants that night. Last week’s loss was just about the final roll of the dice for the Roos this season, who sit 13th with a 4-8 win-loss record so there’ll be no surprise if they’re flat for this one although they are renowned flat track bullies. The 80.5-point line holds little appeal, so we'll play the 'over'.

Suggested bet: Game total +212.5 LOSE (130-44)

Richmond v St Kilda, MCG, Sunday, June 30, 4.40pm

Anyone who’s driven past the Punt Rd Oval may have seen a giant lid with steam billowing from the edges … it may be blown to the heavens if the Tigers improve to 9-4 with victory over the 15th-placed Saints in the final game of the round! Richmond has amassed the best start to a season since 2001; the last time they featured in the finals. Refreshed after the break and with more players returning from injury, the Tigers face a possible road hump with the loss of Ivan Maric to injury although Orren Stephenson has proved a serviceable replacement this season. Aside from the Milne issue, which is still bubbling away under the surface, it’s hard to see how St Kilda will be able to counter the Tigers myriad scoring threats inside 50 and from the midfield.

Suggested bet: Richmond -30.5 WIN (119-55)

Feature: Japanese baseball’s complete balls-up

Imagine the furore if the standard AFL, NRL or national standard cricket ball was changed, and the officials failed to tell anyone. With thanks to WSJ.com, check out this gem from the world of Japanese baseball!

Tony Blanco’s home run against the Tokyo Yakult Swallows on April 30 was more than a big hit in a close game that his Yokohama DeNA Baystars ultimately won 5-4. It was the 32-year-old slugger’s 14th home run in April, the most home runs anybody has ever had in one month in Japanese professional baseball. It was too good to be true.

As the crowd cheered and Blanco jogged around the bases, the scepticism rose. There has been an explosion in Japanese baseball this year – 60 per cent more home runs than at this point last year. Nippon Professional Baseball denied that anything had changed. Public broadcaster NHK concluded in an April report that sluggers had “gotten used” to the standardised ball introduced in 2011, which at first had caused power numbers to plummet.

But as players kept smacking those standardised balls out of the park, suspicion reached a crescendo. Finally, on Tuesday, NPB fessed up: It had secretly arranged with Mizuno Corp. to tweak the official ball to make it fly farther. Where there had been joy, there was outrage. NPB Commissioner Ryozo Kato distanced himself, saying he had no knowledge of the change until Tuesday. Bad communication within the NPB, he said.

NPB and individual teams had been trying for years to liven things up. In 2008, NPB promised faster games, pledging to get the average time down to under three hours from an official average of three hours and 14 minutes in 2007. Sunny cheerleading groups with names such as Passion and Honeys were brought in; the music was cranked up. But when the ball dies, there's only so much dancers can do to help.

Then, last year, NPB found during regular tests that some of Mizuno’s balls were actually deader than the contract specifications called for: The bounce quotient was below the minimum value of 0.4134. NPB asked Mizuno to add a little oomph. This year's balls, NPB tests found, have coefficients of 0.415 to 0.416. The secret tweak seemed to have done the trick, until the whole thing blew up this week!

Fans will get to enjoy the home-run rally for the rest of year at least. "We can't just go and change things midseason," a spokesman for NPB insisted. “If something does change, there will be an announcement.”

MLB for June 30

Milwaukee Brewers (32-46, 13-23 away) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (49-30, 26-13 home), PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA, Sunday, June 30, 9.15am

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the best team in Major League Baseball. Yep, really. The long-time laughing stock have overtaken the Cardinals for the lead in the NL Central and eyeing a divisional title for the first time in two decades. As the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to roll, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in another slide. The Pirates look to extend their longest winning streak in nine seasons to eight games while trying to hand the Brewers a fourth consecutive defeat here.

Pittsburgh (49-30) won six straight to conclude a 7-2 trip, then used a seven-run second inning to win 10-3 in Friday’s opener to take a one-game division lead over St. Louis. The Pirates have averaged 7.0 runs and clubbed 14 homers during the seven-game run – their longest since winning 10 straight from June 26-July 5, 2004. Scheduled Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano (6-3, 2.30 ERA) allowed three runs and struck out 12 in 12 2/3 innings to split his last two starts. The left-hander has allowed fewer than two runs six times in nine since he made his Pittsburgh debut May 11 after recovery from a broken forearm.

Outscored 22-9 during their-game skid, the Brewers' latest defeat came hours after they announced versatile star Corey Hart would need season-ending knee surgery. Rookie Donovan Hand (0-0, 2.37) makes his second career start for the Brewers on Saturday. The right-hander has made nine appearances out of the bullpen, including a scoreless inning Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs. In his first start last Saturday versus Atlanta, Hand allowed two hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 2-0 victory.

Suggested bet: Pirates -1.5 (three units @ $2.10) LOSE (1-2)

Other tips

IL: Reds WIN $2.00 @ Rangers WIN (6-4)

IL: Cubs @ Mariners +7 $1.80 WIN (5-3)

IL: Cardinals @ Athletics +7.5 $1.91 WIN (7-1)

AL: Indians WIN $1.80 @ White Sox WIN (4-3)

AL: Yankees @ Orioles +9 $2.00 WIN (3-11)

AL: Blue Jays @ Red Sox -10.5 $2.05 WIN (6-2)

AL: Tigers @ Rays WIN $2.28 WIN (3-4)

AL: Royals @ Twins +8.5 $1.95 LOSE (2-6)

AL: Angels -1.5 $2.00 @ Astros WIN (7-2)

NL: Nationals @ Mets -8 $2.00 WIN (1-5)

NL: Padres @ Marlins -7.5 $1.83 LOSE (1-7)

NL: Giants @ Rockies WIN $1.83 WIN (1-2)

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