Cycling
for June 29
Tour de
France preview – Saturday June 29-Sunday, July 21
It’s
impossible to talk about which rider is most likely to wear the Yellow Jersey
into Paris in the 100th edition of the Tour de France without first analysing
the route: each year's Tour has its own individual character, and each year
will favour some riders and disadvantage others. The planners have been remorseless;
their route is brutal. There are five hilly stages, six mountain stages (with
four summit finishes), which doesn’t include the second time-trial, which
itself contains two punishing climbs. Another explanation, of course, is that Christian
Prudhomme and his team, who organise the incredible spectacle that is the Tour,
wanted to create something that is gripping from beginning to end.
The Grand
Depart this year features three stages on the hilly, twisting and treacherous
roads of Corsica – the first time the Tour has visited the island. The team
time-trial returns this year, a discipline that all-but guarantees drama. The
second week kicks off with a summit finish in the Pyrenees, allowing an early
bid for the General Classification. Mount Ventoux makes an appearance in the
third week. Then a hilly second time-trial is followed up with a trio of
torturous mountain stages, one of which includes two summits of the infamous
Alpe D’Huez. And if all that wasn’t enough, the final sprint stage in Paris
will be under floodlights for the first time, which should make for spectacular
viewing. The riders to watch this year are:
Chris
Froome: For all that the Brit may have been able to put some time into Wiggins
in the mountains last year had he been given the office, it is unlikely that he
would have gained enough to challenge for the Yellow Jersey. That's because
last year’s route – with an emphasis on the time trial and shorter, steeper
climbs – favoured Wiggins. This year, though, it’s as if the route was designed
with Froome in mind. What’s more, he’s been far and away the strongest rider
this year, winning four of the five races he’s entered. Team Sky, as has become
the norm, has provided near impeccable support in Froome’s races to date this
year, and they field a supporting cast that is, arguably, stronger than the one
that marshalled Wiggins’ victory last year.
Alberto
Contador: His performances in the decade he has been in the peloton mark him
out as one of the most talented stage-race riders in the history of the sport.
This is demonstrated by the fact that he is one of only five riders to have won
all three grand tours in his career – something he managed after just five
years as a professional cyclist. Missing from this assessment of Contador, of
course, is the spectre of the banned, performance-enhancing practices he was
long-alleged to have participated in, and which led to his absence from the
sport in 2012. As a punter, therefore, it is very hard to accurately assess his
chances: of all his previous performances, which one do we take as the
benchmark of his ability, and which do we discard as under-the-influence? No
bet.
The rest: It
should be easy to discount the chances of those riders who participated in the
Giro this year but Australia’s Cadel Evans and Ryder Hesjedal could prove the
exception. Hesjedal has been beset by various problems this year, but arrives
at the Tour well rested, and Evans was the surprise package of the Giro: his
participation was in doubt, for a start, and then the race was only considered
as a training exercise for the Tour. That he finished third in Italy, then,
should perhaps tell us that Evans will arrive on Corsica with another Yellow
Jersey in his mind. A name that will be new to most casual cycling fans is Nairo
Quintana. He’s only 23-years-old (although he looks about 50) but has already
shown himself to be a stunning climber and a useful time-triallist. This year’s
Tour might come too early in his career for him to be considered a viable
challenger for the General Classification, but he’s worth keeping in mind.
Suggested
bets
Chris
Froome WIN (three units @ $1.72)
Cadel
Evans Top 3 (1.5 units @ $4.00)
Ryder Hesjedal
Top 3 (0.5 units @ $17)
Rugby Union
for June 29
Second Test
– Wallabies v British & Irish Lions, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Saturday, June
29, 8pm
If Israel Folau
or Brian O’Driscoll score a TRY, Centrebet will refund your first losing bet on
the head to head market up to $100 (this promotion was paid out in the First Test).
The Wallabies
had their hopes crushed with a last minute slip on the Lang Park surface. The Lions
lost their outstanding lock with Paul O’Connell breaking his arm. Mike Phillips
jogged his way out of the 23. Israel Folau increased his earnings potential a billion
times with an outstanding debut. James Horwill was charged with stamping, cleared
and then recharged when the IRB appealed against its own ruling! The Lions looked
in sublime form against the Rebels during the week and we’re expecting that they’ll
exploit the weaknesses amid the Wallabies backs here.
Both teams
have shuffled the deck. Warren Gatland has tweaked a winning side with forced and
unforced changes. Alex Corbisiero loses his loosehead spot to Makovina Vunipola
after succumbing to a calf strain. As mentioned O’Connell is out of the series and
has been replaced by Geoff Parling. He’s no mug but O’Connell’s loss is a huge blow
to the visitors while the inclusion of Vunipola will weaken the scrum. Dan Lydiate
has replaced Jamie Heaslip at blindside flanker in a move that seems to be aimed
at competing at the break down and playing a wider game.
The good news
for the Wallabies is that they’ve named an unchanged forward pack and have even
been able to name the same forward reserves. It’s in the backs that the disastrous
injury toll from last week’s match clearly shows. Digby Ioane and Pat McCabe are
gone for the series. Berrick Barnes has concussion and may not be available for
the third Test. Kurtley Beale moves into the fullback spot to replace Barnes. In-form
Brumbies winger Joe Tomane replaces Ioane in a like-for-like switch. – Preview thanks
to Green & Gold Rugby
Suggested bet:
Lions -3 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -44.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (16-15)
Racing for
June 29
Horse
racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Rosehill (NSW – abandoned), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Morphettville
(SA), Belmont (WA), Gosford (NSW – abandoned), Gold Coast (Qld), Casino (NSW),
Townsville (Qld), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Toowoomba (Qld). Harness
racing: Dubbo (NSW), Wagga (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Bunbury
(WA), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound
racing: Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cannington (WA),
Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW)
Anyone
living in Sydney won’t be terribly surprised to hear that today’s meetings at
Rosehill and Gosford have been abandoned. However, there’s a big card of
meetings left, highlighted by the stand-alone program on the Sunshine Coast and
the Listed Caloundra Cup. We’re heading to Morphettville for our best of the
day, which comes up in the final event of the card. #4 Whitten’s Delight was a
last start sixth 3.5L behind Star Rolling three weeks ago. That form is a class
above anything here, she’s back in distance while Jamie Kah’s 2kg claim means
this 3yo filly gets in just 0.5kg above the minimum. She’ll be a good thing’s
price but bet with confidence.
Suggested
bet: Morphettville R8 #4 Whitten’s Delight WIN (three units) 1st ($3.10)
Other tips
Sunshine
Coast R2 #4 Cuddlesome (E/W) 3rd ($2.50)
Sunshine
Coast R5 #8 Ten Gauge (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Sunshine
Coast R7 #13 Someday (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.00/$2.20)
Moonee
Valley R1 #1 Magnaro (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($2.30)
Moonee
Valley R3 #2 Octavia (E/W) 2nd ($1.80)
Moonee
Valley R4 #2 Pipette (win) LOSE (4th)
Moonee
Valley R5 #1 Mr O’Ceirin (win) LOSE (U/P)
Moonee
Valley R6 #8 Blackie (E/W) 1st ($7.80/$2.50)
Moonee
Valley R7 #9 Gig (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Moonee
Valley R8 #6 Sir Fernando (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville
R5 #12 Schaduw (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville
R6 #7 Wise Journey (E/W) 1st ($3.80/$1.50)
Morphettville
R7 #7 Natural Disaster (win) LOSE (U/P)
Belmont R2
#5 Mr Utopia (win) LOSE (2nd)
Harness
racing tip: Cranbourne R7 #4 My High Expectations (win)
Greyhound
racing tip: The Meadows R1 #6 Ronan Izmir (win)
AFL (R14)
for June 29
Place a
bet on the “head to head” market in any AFL round 14 match and if your team
scores 90 points or more but loses, Centrebet will refund your first bet up to
$100 cash!
Gold Coast v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, Saturday,
June 29, 1.40pm
Two sides coming off the bye with a
5-7 record meet at Metricon Stadium on Saturday but their fortunes couldn’t
have been more different so far in 2013. The Suns have been the revelation of
the season and, with the easiest run home of any side in the competition, will
fancy their chances of climbing even further up the ladder. Meanwhile, the
Crows, with finals probably out of reach now, will be out to halt a losing
streak that stretches back to May. Brenton Sanderson may even start to give
some of the talented youngsters plying their trade in the SANFL a run in coming
weeks. Despite losing Michael Rischitelli and Tom Lynch for several weeks
(among six changes made by Guy McKenna), look for the Suns to raise the bar
even higher over the next three months, starting here.
Suggested bet: Gold Coast +10.5 LOSE (83-111)
Port Adelaide v Collingwood, AAMI Stadium, Saturday,
June 29, 4.40pm AEST
Fresh
from one of the upsets of the season, Port Adelaide will fancy their chances of
adding Collingwood to the scalp of Sydney on another wet track at AAMI Stadium.
The record of Ken Hinkley’s side reads five wins, then five losses followed by
two wins since the bye while the Magpies are making their first start since a
week’s rest. Collingwood has lost only once to Port since 2005, and haven’t
conceded more than 87 points against them in that time. Collingwood also has a
formidable record at AAMI Stadium, winning its last eight matches dating back
to 2006. With Travis Boak back, there’s no reason to believe the Power won’t
again be highly competitive.
Suggested bet: Port Adelaide +15.5 WIN,
game total -176.5 WIN (86-51)
Geelong v Fremantle, Simmonds Stadium, Saturday, June
29, 7.40pm
Chris Scott had no shortage of
footage to remind his charges how they managed to cough up a 10-goal lead and
lose to the Lions at the Gabba last week. Under normal circumstances, you’d
expect the Cats to come out firing and win well in front of their hometown fans
except their opponent here is Fremantle. The competition misers held North to
just four goals last week, improving their remarkable record to 66.5 points per
game conceded. Despite sitting second on the ladder, the Cats defence is rated
outside the best eight. Steve Johnson misses again through suspension while
Michael Barlow is out after surgery to his jaw. Only concern here is the
ability of the Dockers to come up week after week with the high intensity style
of football they’re playing – I’m tipping they will and consolidate their top
four status.
Suggested bet: Fremantle +15.5
(best of the round) LOSE, game total -172.5 WIN (85-44)
Melbourne v Footscray, MCG, Saturday, June 29, 7.40pm
Saturday night, mid-winter and 17th
versus 16th at the MCG – where would you rather be? The resistible
force meets the movable object as the Demons and Bulldogs battle for what will
be a fifth win in their last 25 combined starts. If Richmond had kicked
straight last week, the Bulldogs would have suffered a 15-goal-plus defeat
instead of the eventual 10-goal margin. In their first game under new coach
Neil Craig, Melbourne showed much greater endeavour and won plenty of the ball
only to again suffer through poor disposal and decision-making going forward.
Having covered a 39.5 line against the Saints last week, Melbourne regains key
defender James Frawley and, with improved efficiency out of the middle, they should
easily cover the margin on offer here, and the ‘under’ also appeals.
Suggested bet: Melbourne +25.5 WIN (103-100)
CFL (Wk 1)
for June 29
Hamilton
Tiger Cats @ Toronto Argonauts, Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Saturday, June 29, 9.05am
We’re
expecting the Ti-Cats to be big improvers this season but they face a tough
start to the season as the Toronto Argonauts start their quest for a repeat as
Grey Cup champions. Toronto defeated the Calgary Stampeders 35-22 at home for
its league-record 16th title despite posting a 9-9 record during the regular
season. The Tiger-Cats struggled mightily on defence last season, finishing
6-12 in large part because they allowed a league-worst 32 points per game.
The
Argonauts defeated Hamilton in three of four meetings last year, including both
games at Rogers Centre. The Tiger-Cats hired coach Kent Austin, who led the
Saskatchewan Roughriders to a Grey Cup championship in 2007 and spent the last
three seasons coaching at Cornell University. Hamilton is vying for its first
winning season since 2004, when it finished 9-8-1 but there were some promising
signs through training camp and pre-season.
Weeks
after signing quarterback Ricky Ray to an extension that carries through to 2015,
Toronto reached an agreement with last year’s Most Outstanding Player Chad
Owens for two more years. Hamilton’s Henry Burris
threw for 43 touchdowns and a career-high 5367 yards last year in his first
season with Hamilton. The 38-year-old looked strong in the preseason,
completing 13 of 17 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns in a 52-0 rout of
the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Suggested
bet: Hamilton +3.5 (two units @ $1.95) LOSE, game total +56.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (34-39)
Other tips
BC Lions @
Calgary Stampeders -3 ($1.91) WIN (32-44)
MLB for
June 29
Toronto
Blue Jays (39-39, 17-22 away) @ Boston Red Sox (48-33, 26-15 home), Fenway
Park, Boston, MA, Saturday, June 29, 9.10am
The Toronto
Blue Jays began their current seven-game trip riding a franchise-tying winning
streak, but struggled to win a game this week. Looking to get back on track, the
Blue Jays try to keep the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox from a fourth
consecutive win here. The Red Sox are already minus nine-game winner Clay
Buchholz, who continues to recover from a neck injury. That means Allen Webster
(0-2, 11.25 ERA) gets a second straight start, and third career, since he was
recalled from the minors over the weekend. The right-hander needs to be improve
on his last start when he gave up a first-inning grand slam to Victor Martinez
and one other run in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss at Detroit.
Toronto
counters with Josh Johnson
(1-2, 4.60), who pitched well for five innings then allowed four runs and
couldn't get out of the seventh inning, but earned his first win as a Blue Jay
in Sunday’s 13-5 victory over Baltimore. The right-hander is making his first
appearance at Fenway, but is 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts versus Boston.
He gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings of a 6-4 loss to the Red Sox
on April 5. We have a small lean to the Jays here as Webster doesn’t look up to
the mark yet, but a big play on the ‘over’ – this is gonna be a slugfest!
Suggested
bet: Blue Jays WIN (one unit @ $1.93) LOSE, game total +10 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (5-7)
Others
tips
AL:
Indians @ White Sox (1) +9 $1.91 WIN (19-10)
AL:
Yankees @ Orioles -8.5 $1.91 WIN (3-4)
AL: Tigers
@ Rays WIN $2.20 LOSE (6-3)
AL: Angels
WIN $1.70 @ Astros WIN (4-2)
NL:
Brewers +1.5 $1.83 @ Pirates LOSE (3-10)
NL:
Nationals WIN $2.30 @ Mets WIN (6-4)
NL: Padres
@ Marlins WIN $1.82 LOSE (9-2)
NL:
Diamondbacks @ Braves WIN $1.60 WIN (0-3)
NL: Giants
@ Rockies +10.5 $1.87 LOSE (1-4)
NL:
Phillies @ Dodgers WIN $1.71 LOSE (16-1)
* Prices
with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people
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