Daily tips for June 29

Cycling for June 29

Tour de France preview – Saturday June 29-Sunday, July 21

It’s impossible to talk about which rider is most likely to wear the Yellow Jersey into Paris in the 100th edition of the Tour de France without first analysing the route: each year's Tour has its own individual character, and each year will favour some riders and disadvantage others. The planners have been remorseless; their route is brutal. There are five hilly stages, six mountain stages (with four summit finishes), which doesn’t include the second time-trial, which itself contains two punishing climbs. Another explanation, of course, is that Christian Prudhomme and his team, who organise the incredible spectacle that is the Tour, wanted to create something that is gripping from beginning to end.

The Grand Depart this year features three stages on the hilly, twisting and treacherous roads of Corsica – the first time the Tour has visited the island. The team time-trial returns this year, a discipline that all-but guarantees drama. The second week kicks off with a summit finish in the Pyrenees, allowing an early bid for the General Classification. Mount Ventoux makes an appearance in the third week. Then a hilly second time-trial is followed up with a trio of torturous mountain stages, one of which includes two summits of the infamous Alpe D’Huez. And if all that wasn’t enough, the final sprint stage in Paris will be under floodlights for the first time, which should make for spectacular viewing. The riders to watch this year are:

Chris Froome: For all that the Brit may have been able to put some time into Wiggins in the mountains last year had he been given the office, it is unlikely that he would have gained enough to challenge for the Yellow Jersey. That's because last year’s route – with an emphasis on the time trial and shorter, steeper climbs – favoured Wiggins. This year, though, it’s as if the route was designed with Froome in mind. What’s more, he’s been far and away the strongest rider this year, winning four of the five races he’s entered. Team Sky, as has become the norm, has provided near impeccable support in Froome’s races to date this year, and they field a supporting cast that is, arguably, stronger than the one that marshalled Wiggins’ victory last year.

Alberto Contador: His performances in the decade he has been in the peloton mark him out as one of the most talented stage-race riders in the history of the sport. This is demonstrated by the fact that he is one of only five riders to have won all three grand tours in his career – something he managed after just five years as a professional cyclist. Missing from this assessment of Contador, of course, is the spectre of the banned, performance-enhancing practices he was long-alleged to have participated in, and which led to his absence from the sport in 2012. As a punter, therefore, it is very hard to accurately assess his chances: of all his previous performances, which one do we take as the benchmark of his ability, and which do we discard as under-the-influence? No bet.

The rest: It should be easy to discount the chances of those riders who participated in the Giro this year but Australia’s Cadel Evans and Ryder Hesjedal could prove the exception. Hesjedal has been beset by various problems this year, but arrives at the Tour well rested, and Evans was the surprise package of the Giro: his participation was in doubt, for a start, and then the race was only considered as a training exercise for the Tour. That he finished third in Italy, then, should perhaps tell us that Evans will arrive on Corsica with another Yellow Jersey in his mind. A name that will be new to most casual cycling fans is Nairo Quintana. He’s only 23-years-old (although he looks about 50) but has already shown himself to be a stunning climber and a useful time-triallist. This year’s Tour might come too early in his career for him to be considered a viable challenger for the General Classification, but he’s worth keeping in mind.

Suggested bets

Chris Froome WIN (three units @ $1.72)

Cadel Evans Top 3 (1.5 units @ $4.00)

Ryder Hesjedal Top 3 (0.5 units @ $17)

Rugby Union for June 29

Second Test – Wallabies v British & Irish Lions, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Saturday, June 29, 8pm

 If Israel Folau or Brian O’Driscoll score a TRY, Centrebet will refund your first losing bet on the head to head market up to $100 (this promotion was paid out in the First Test).

The Wallabies had their hopes crushed with a last minute slip on the Lang Park surface. The Lions lost their outstanding lock with Paul O’Connell breaking his arm. Mike Phillips jogged his way out of the 23. Israel Folau increased his earnings potential a billion times with an outstanding debut. James Horwill was charged with stamping, cleared and then recharged when the IRB appealed against its own ruling! The Lions looked in sublime form against the Rebels during the week and we’re expecting that they’ll exploit the weaknesses amid the Wallabies backs here.

Both teams have shuffled the deck. Warren Gatland has tweaked a winning side with forced and unforced changes. Alex Corbisiero loses his loosehead spot to Makovina Vunipola after succumbing to a calf strain. As mentioned O’Connell is out of the series and has been replaced by Geoff Parling. He’s no mug but O’Connell’s loss is a huge blow to the visitors while the inclusion of Vunipola will weaken the scrum. Dan Lydiate has replaced Jamie Heaslip at blindside flanker in a move that seems to be aimed at competing at the break down and playing a wider game.

The good news for the Wallabies is that they’ve named an unchanged forward pack and have even been able to name the same forward reserves. It’s in the backs that the disastrous injury toll from last week’s match clearly shows. Digby Ioane and Pat McCabe are gone for the series. Berrick Barnes has concussion and may not be available for the third Test. Kurtley Beale moves into the fullback spot to replace Barnes. In-form Brumbies winger Joe Tomane replaces Ioane in a like-for-like switch. – Preview thanks to Green & Gold Rugby

Suggested bet: Lions -3 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -44.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (16-15)

Racing for June 29

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Rosehill (NSW – abandoned), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Gosford (NSW – abandoned), Gold Coast (Qld), Casino (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Toowoomba (Qld). Harness racing: Dubbo (NSW), Wagga (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Bunbury (WA), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cannington (WA), Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW)

Anyone living in Sydney won’t be terribly surprised to hear that today’s meetings at Rosehill and Gosford have been abandoned. However, there’s a big card of meetings left, highlighted by the stand-alone program on the Sunshine Coast and the Listed Caloundra Cup. We’re heading to Morphettville for our best of the day, which comes up in the final event of the card. #4 Whitten’s Delight was a last start sixth 3.5L behind Star Rolling three weeks ago. That form is a class above anything here, she’s back in distance while Jamie Kah’s 2kg claim means this 3yo filly gets in just 0.5kg above the minimum. She’ll be a good thing’s price but bet with confidence.

Suggested bet: Morphettville R8 #4 Whitten’s Delight WIN (three units) 1st ($3.10)

Other tips

Sunshine Coast R2 #4 Cuddlesome (E/W) 3rd ($2.50)

Sunshine Coast R5 #8 Ten Gauge (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Sunshine Coast R7 #13 Someday (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.00/$2.20)

Moonee Valley R1 #1 Magnaro (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($2.30)

Moonee Valley R3 #2 Octavia (E/W) 2nd ($1.80)

Moonee Valley R4 #2 Pipette (win) LOSE (4th)

Moonee Valley R5 #1 Mr O’Ceirin (win) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R6 #8 Blackie (E/W) 1st ($7.80/$2.50)

Moonee Valley R7 #9 Gig (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R8 #6 Sir Fernando (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R5 #12 Schaduw (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R6 #7 Wise Journey (E/W) 1st ($3.80/$1.50)

Morphettville R7 #7 Natural Disaster (win) LOSE (U/P)

Belmont R2 #5 Mr Utopia (win) LOSE (2nd)

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R7 #4 My High Expectations (win)

Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R1 #6 Ronan Izmir (win)

AFL (R14) for June 29

Place a bet on the “head to head” market in any AFL round 14 match and if your team scores 90 points or more but loses, Centrebet will refund your first bet up to $100 cash!

Gold Coast v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, Saturday, June 29, 1.40pm

Two sides coming off the bye with a 5-7 record meet at Metricon Stadium on Saturday but their fortunes couldn’t have been more different so far in 2013. The Suns have been the revelation of the season and, with the easiest run home of any side in the competition, will fancy their chances of climbing even further up the ladder. Meanwhile, the Crows, with finals probably out of reach now, will be out to halt a losing streak that stretches back to May. Brenton Sanderson may even start to give some of the talented youngsters plying their trade in the SANFL a run in coming weeks. Despite losing Michael Rischitelli and Tom Lynch for several weeks (among six changes made by Guy McKenna), look for the Suns to raise the bar even higher over the next three months, starting here.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast +10.5 LOSE (83-111)

Port Adelaide v Collingwood, AAMI Stadium, Saturday, June 29, 4.40pm AEST

Fresh from one of the upsets of the season, Port Adelaide will fancy their chances of adding Collingwood to the scalp of Sydney on another wet track at AAMI Stadium. The record of Ken Hinkley’s side reads five wins, then five losses followed by two wins since the bye while the Magpies are making their first start since a week’s rest. Collingwood has lost only once to Port since 2005, and haven’t conceded more than 87 points against them in that time. Collingwood also has a formidable record at AAMI Stadium, winning its last eight matches dating back to 2006. With Travis Boak back, there’s no reason to believe the Power won’t again be highly competitive.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide +15.5 WIN, game total -176.5 WIN (86-51)

Geelong v Fremantle, Simmonds Stadium, Saturday, June 29, 7.40pm

Chris Scott had no shortage of footage to remind his charges how they managed to cough up a 10-goal lead and lose to the Lions at the Gabba last week. Under normal circumstances, you’d expect the Cats to come out firing and win well in front of their hometown fans except their opponent here is Fremantle. The competition misers held North to just four goals last week, improving their remarkable record to 66.5 points per game conceded. Despite sitting second on the ladder, the Cats defence is rated outside the best eight. Steve Johnson misses again through suspension while Michael Barlow is out after surgery to his jaw. Only concern here is the ability of the Dockers to come up week after week with the high intensity style of football they’re playing – I’m tipping they will and consolidate their top four status.

Suggested bet: Fremantle +15.5 (best of the round) LOSE, game total -172.5 WIN (85-44)

Melbourne v Footscray, MCG, Saturday, June 29, 7.40pm

Saturday night, mid-winter and 17th versus 16th at the MCG – where would you rather be? The resistible force meets the movable object as the Demons and Bulldogs battle for what will be a fifth win in their last 25 combined starts. If Richmond had kicked straight last week, the Bulldogs would have suffered a 15-goal-plus defeat instead of the eventual 10-goal margin. In their first game under new coach Neil Craig, Melbourne showed much greater endeavour and won plenty of the ball only to again suffer through poor disposal and decision-making going forward. Having covered a 39.5 line against the Saints last week, Melbourne regains key defender James Frawley and, with improved efficiency out of the middle, they should easily cover the margin on offer here, and the ‘under’ also appeals.

Suggested bet: Melbourne +25.5 WIN (103-100)

CFL (Wk 1) for June 29

Hamilton Tiger Cats @ Toronto Argonauts, Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Saturday, June 29, 9.05am

We’re expecting the Ti-Cats to be big improvers this season but they face a tough start to the season as the Toronto Argonauts start their quest for a repeat as Grey Cup champions. Toronto defeated the Calgary Stampeders 35-22 at home for its league-record 16th title despite posting a 9-9 record during the regular season. The Tiger-Cats struggled mightily on defence last season, finishing 6-12 in large part because they allowed a league-worst 32 points per game.

The Argonauts defeated Hamilton in three of four meetings last year, including both games at Rogers Centre. The Tiger-Cats hired coach Kent Austin, who led the Saskatchewan Roughriders to a Grey Cup championship in 2007 and spent the last three seasons coaching at Cornell University. Hamilton is vying for its first winning season since 2004, when it finished 9-8-1 but there were some promising signs through training camp and pre-season.

Weeks after signing quarterback Ricky Ray to an extension that carries through to 2015, Toronto reached an agreement with last year’s Most Outstanding Player Chad Owens for two more years. Hamilton’s Henry Burris threw for 43 touchdowns and a career-high 5367 yards last year in his first season with Hamilton. The 38-year-old looked strong in the preseason, completing 13 of 17 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns in a 52-0 rout of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Suggested bet: Hamilton +3.5 (two units @ $1.95) LOSE, game total +56.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (34-39)

Other tips

BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders -3 ($1.91) WIN (32-44)

MLB for June 29

Toronto Blue Jays (39-39, 17-22 away) @ Boston Red Sox (48-33, 26-15 home), Fenway Park, Boston, MA, Saturday, June 29, 9.10am

The Toronto Blue Jays began their current seven-game trip riding a franchise-tying winning streak, but struggled to win a game this week. Looking to get back on track, the Blue Jays try to keep the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox from a fourth consecutive win here. The Red Sox are already minus nine-game winner Clay Buchholz, who continues to recover from a neck injury. That means Allen Webster (0-2, 11.25 ERA) gets a second straight start, and third career, since he was recalled from the minors over the weekend. The right-hander needs to be improve on his last start when he gave up a first-inning grand slam to Victor Martinez and one other run in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss at Detroit.

Toronto counters with Josh Johnson (1-2, 4.60), who pitched well for five innings then allowed four runs and couldn't get out of the seventh inning, but earned his first win as a Blue Jay in Sunday’s 13-5 victory over Baltimore. The right-hander is making his first appearance at Fenway, but is 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts versus Boston. He gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings of a 6-4 loss to the Red Sox on April 5. We have a small lean to the Jays here as Webster doesn’t look up to the mark yet, but a big play on the ‘over’ – this is gonna be a slugfest!

Suggested bet: Blue Jays WIN (one unit @ $1.93) LOSE, game total +10 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (5-7)

Others tips

AL: Indians @ White Sox (1) +9 $1.91 WIN (19-10)

AL: Yankees @ Orioles -8.5 $1.91 WIN (3-4)

AL: Tigers @ Rays WIN $2.20 LOSE (6-3)

AL: Angels WIN $1.70 @ Astros WIN (4-2)

NL: Brewers +1.5 $1.83 @ Pirates LOSE (3-10)

NL: Nationals WIN $2.30 @ Mets WIN (6-4)

NL: Padres @ Marlins WIN $1.82 LOSE (9-2)

NL: Diamondbacks @ Braves WIN $1.60 WIN (0-3)

NL: Giants @ Rockies +10.5 $1.87 LOSE (1-4)

NL: Phillies @ Dodgers WIN $1.71 LOSE (16-1)

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