Thursday 20 June 2013

Daily tips for June 21



AFL (R13) for June 21


Hawthorn v West Coast, Etihad Stadium, Friday, June 21, 7.50pm

The Eagles return to Melbourne after their bye week to tackle the ladder leading Hawks at Etihad Stadium – a venue at which the sides have never clashed before and could hardly be considered a 'home' venue for the Hawks. The alarm bells normally ring when a side makes six changes, but that’s not the case here with Darren Glass, Beau Waters, Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy returning for West Coast.

The Eagles ran the Hawks for three quarters when they met in Perth back in round two before being blown away in the last quarter. Hawthorn really hasn't put a foot wrong since.This looms as a pivotal game for the Eagles to retain any finals aspirations. If they can exploit their height advantage in attack and around the ground, this could be a lot closer than the pundits believe.

Suggested bet: West Coast +32.5 WIN (123-103)


Racing for June 21

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Royal Ascot (UK). Harness racing: Mildura (Vic), Wagga (NSW), Melton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Mt Gambier (SA), The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Winnellie Park (NT).

The UK bookies are crying poor after the first three days of Royal Ascot, so let’s see if we can inflict some more misery after a profitable carnival to date. The feature race tonight is the Group 1 £350,000 Coronation Stakes for three-year-old fillies over the distance of a mile. It features a rematch between the QIPCO 1000 Guineas quinella finishers Sky Lantern and Just The Judge but both are drawn wide.

Instead, we’ve settled on #2 Big Break. Since 2005, seven fillies have tried for a Guineas-Coronation double but only one – Ghanaati in 2009 – has succeeded due to the races being so far apart in the calendar. Big Break was the leading juvenile filly in Ireland last year, including a defeat of colts in a Group Three event, Big Break did make it to the Irish Guineas (she finished fourth) but has been aimed at this by Dermot Weld.

Suggested bet: Ascot R3 #2 Big Break E/W (two units) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Geelong R1 #1 A Saucy Snitzel (E/W) 2nd ($2.60)
Geelong R6 #8 The Shank (E/W) 1st ($3.70/$1.70)
Geelong R8 #11 Neptune Express (place) LOSE (U/P)
Gosford R5 #1 Whitesails (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Gosford R7 #2 Angel Bee (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Canberra R4 #8 Moomoomashoo (win) 1st ($1.80)
Ipswich R5 #5 Lochtorio (E/W) ABANDONED
Singapore R7 #3 U Got It (E/W) ABANDONED
Ascot R1 #16 Sandiva (E/W) 2nd ($1.60)
Ascot R1 #2 Battle of Marengo (win) LOSE (2nd)
Ascot R5 #8 Disclaimer (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Melton R7 #3 Have A Bender (E/W) 2nd ($1.70)
Greyhound tip: Wentworth Park R6 #3 Zipping Willow (win) LOSE (3rd)


NBA Finals for June 21

NBA Finals game 7: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Wednesday, June 19, 10.10am (series tied 3-3)


Place a bet on the ‘head to head’ market and if your team scores 100 points but loses the match, Centrebet will refund your first bet up to $100 cash!

After losing a late lead in Game 6 in devastating fashion, the San Antonio Spurs attempt to become the first road team in 35 years to win Game 7 of the NBA Finals in this decisive match-up with the Miami Heat. San Antonio had a five-point lead with 28.1 seconds left in regulation on Tuesday before Miami rallied to force overtime and eventually claim a 103-100 victory. The Heat haven’t won back-to-back games in four weeks.

Miami trailed by 13 points late in the third quarter of Game 6 and the home fans were scurrying to the exits when the Heat trailed by five points in the final half-minute. But Ray Allen drained the game-tying three-pointer with 5.2 seconds left and Miami outplayed San Antonio over the second half of overtime to keep alive its hopes of winning back-to-back titles. The 1978 Washington Bullets were the last team to win a road Game 7 in the NBA Finals, beating the Seattle SuperSonics.

The health of guard Dwyane Wade is a major concern after he injured his surgically repaired left knee in the first half of Game 6. Wade has been ineffective for much of the postseason due to an injured right knee. We’ve made much of the Heat’s inability to win successive games in recent weeks, going L, W, L, W, L, W, L, W, L, W, L, W in their past 12. The Spurs are 2-1 ATS against the Heat in this finals series. The popular support may be with the Heat, but we’re going to stick with the trend, the value, and the Spurs. Enjoy the game!

Suggested bet: Spurs +5.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, Spurs 1-10 (one unit @ $3.90), LOSE, Heat 1-10 (one unit @ $2.75) WIN 88-95

MLB for June 21

Tampa Bay Rays (37-35, 16-19 away) @ New York Yankees (39-32, 20-14 home), Yankee Stadium, New York, NY, Friday, June 21, 9.10am

After a terrific start to the year, Matt Moore has come undone in the past fortnight and we’re tipping he won’t get back on track as the Rays open a four-game series against the Yankees. Moore (8-3, 4.12 ERA) opened 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA, but he's been knocked around in losing each of his three starts this month. The 24-year-old left-hander, surrendering an AL-worst 4.72 walks per nine innings, has allowed 20 runs, 26 hits and 11 free passes in 12 1/3 innings during his skid. Moore saw his woes continue Friday in a 7-2 loss to Kansas City, yielding five runs, seven hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings.

The Yankees (39-32) counter with Andy Pettitte (5-4, 3.95), who gave up four runs and a season-high 11 hits in seven innings Friday in a 5-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last four home starts and also has struggled against the Rays lately, going 1/3 with a 5.04 ERA over a five-start stretch. Pettitte, who struck out a season-best 10 in six innings during a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay on April 24, is 12 strikeouts away from tying Whitey Ford's franchise record of 1956. New York and Tampa Bay have split six meetings this season – all at Tropicana Field. The Rays haven’t won any of their last eight series in the Bronx.

Suggested bet: Yankees WIN (1.5 units @ $1.93) LOSE, game total -8 (2.5 units @ $1.95) LOSE (8-3)

Other tips

IL: Brewers @ Astros -7.5 $2.05 LOSE (4-7)
AL: White Sox @ Twins +8 $1.85 WIN (2-1)
AL: Athletics @ Rangers -9.5 $2.07 WIN (3-4)
AL: Cubs @ Cardinals -7.5 $1.80 WIN (1-6)
AL: Red Sox @ Tigers WIN $1.79 WIN (3-4)
AL: Mariners WIN $1.95 @ Angels LOSE (9-10)
NL: Pirates WIN $2.75 @ Reds WIN (5-3)
NL: Rockies @ Nationals -7 $1.95 WIN (1-5)
NL: Mets @ Braves -7.5 $1.83 WIN (4-3)
NL: Dodgers @ Padres +7.5 $2.00 WIN (3-6)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

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