Tuesday 18 June 2013

Daily tips for June 19



Racing for June 19

Horse racing: Sandown Lakeside (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Wellington (NSW), Balaklava (SA), Belmont (WA), Royal Ascot (UK). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Yarra Valley (Vic), Bendigo (Vic). Greyhound racing: The Meadows (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Dubbo (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Rockhampton (Qld), Ballarat (Vic), Dapto (NSW), Cannington (WA).


The highlight and feature race on the second day of the Royal Ascot carnival is the Group 1 £500,000 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 2000m. Established in 1862, it’s arguably the most important race of the Royal Meeting. At $6.50, The Fugue would be among our leading fancies but she comes here without a run this season and is taking on the opposite sex. Instead, we’ll be on #2 Al Kazeem to again get the job done against 2012 Epsom/Curragh Derby double winner #3 Camelot. Fresh from victory in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last month over Camelot, Roger Charlton’s lightly-raced five-year-old also won impressively at Group 3 level at Sandown (UK) in April.

Suggested bet: Ascot R3 #3 Al Kazeem WIN (two units) 1st ($3.70)

Other tips

Sandown R1 #2 Chaparro (win) 1st ($2.30)
Sandown R2 #2 Maythehorsebemagic (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Sandown R5 #5 Palio Princess (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Canterbury R1 #1 Murder of Crows (win) 1st ($1.30)
Canterbury R5 #5 Sweet Talkin Woman (E/W) 3rd ($1.50)
Doomben R5 #1 Excellent Al (win) LOSE (U/P)
Doomben R9 #9 Eye on You (win) 1st ($1.30)
Balaklava R3 #4 Edriguez (place) 2nd ($1.50)
Balaklava R8 #6 Umaluka (E/W) 1st ($4.20/$1.80)
Ascot R1 #12: Montiridge (E/W) 2nd ($2.80)
Ascot R5 #3: Beldale Memory (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Yarra Valley R1 #2 Kazaree (win) 1st ($1.30)
Greyhounds tip: Ballarat R8 #3 Hurunui Hitman (win) SCRATCHED

NBA Finals for June 19

NBA Finals game 6: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Wednesday, June 19, 10.10am (Spurs lead 3-2)


Place a bet on the ‘head to head’ market and if your team scores 100 points but loses the match, Centrebet will refund your first bet up to $100 cash!

The San Antonio Spurs are one win away from their fifth NBA title while the Miami Heat need a series-saving victory when Game 6 of the NBA Finals is played in South Beach today. San Antonio took a 3-2 lead with a 114-104 victory on Sunday behind a season-best game from Manu Ginobili and another superb performance from three-point shooter Danny Green. Miami is vying to become the fourth team to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two home court victories. The Heat watched the Dallas Mavericks celebrate on their home floor two seasons ago. Miami won 27 consecutive games during the regular series but is finding the playoffs to be much tougher, having gone 5-6 in its last 11 games with no back-to-back victories since winning Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against Indiana on May 22.

The entire NBA playoff series has been littered with bounce back stats (Spurs, Heat, Spurs, Heat, Spurs in the final so far), while the total score has increased in each of the five finals. In their past 12 games following a loss, the Heat have won them all by a margin of at least 10 and an average margin of almost 22! In contrast, the Spurs have won 22 of 28 ‘close out’ games, including a staggering 14 of 16 on the road. There looks better value at the game total line. The average score of games during this finals series is 10ppg lower in Miami but the market has been set with a big lean to Game 5, which ended 114-104. With the title on the line, we’re expecting the defensive units of both sides to step up.

Suggested bet: Game total -192 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Heat -6.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (95-95)

MLB for June 19

Pittsburgh Pirates (41-29, 16-16 away) @ Cincinnati Reds (43-28, 25-12 home), Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH, Wednesday, June 19, 9.10am

Mat Latos has been kind to us this season and there’s no reason to hop off the bandwagon here. He’s gone 21 consecutive starts without loss, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have never beaten him. Latos (6-0, 3.08 ERA) has not lost since August 24, 2012, although he’s looking to bounce back from one of his worst starts of the season. Though he left after six innings with a one-run lead, Latos allowed four runs and eight hits in a 6-5, 14-inning loss to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday.

A short-handed bullpen will look to do a better job of supporting Latos here. Sean Marshall has been out since May 24 with a sprained shoulder, and Jonathan Broxton joined him on the disabled list Saturday with an elbow problem. Even so, Cincinnati's relievers have pitched 9 1/3 innings of scoreless relief since blowing Latos’ chance to win and have a 0.90 ERA in the last seven games.

Pittsburgh scheduled starter Charlie Morton (0-1, 3.60) has lost four straight and six of seven going back to May 2012. The right-hander made his season debut Tuesday in his return from surgery, surrendering four runs (two earned) and seven hits in five innings of a 10-0 loss to San Francisco. Morton was undone by wildness (three hit batters) as well as bad luck (three infield hits) against the Giants. Morton went 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in two match-ups with the Reds last season.

Suggested bet: Reds WIN (2.5 units @ $1.52) LOSE, game total -8.5 (1.5 units @ 2.00) WIN (4-0)

Other tips

IL: Dodgers WIN $1.93 @ Yankees POSTPONED
IL: Rockies @ Blue Jays +9 $1.91 WIN (3-8)
IL: Brewers WIN $1.88 @ Astros LOSE (1-10)
AL: Orioles @ Tigers -1.5 $1.95 LOSE (5-2)
AL: Athletics @ Rangers WIN $1.59 LOSE (6-2)
AL: White Sox WIN $2.16 @ Twins LOSE (5-7)
AL: Mariners +1.5 $1.83 @ Angels WIN (3-2)
NL: Mets @ Braves (1) +7 $2.15 PUSH (4-3)
NL: Nationals @ Phillies WIN $1.61 WIN (2-4)
NL: Padres @ Giants +7 $2.10 WIN (4-5)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

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