Wednesday 12 June 2013

Daily tips for June 13



US Open for June 14-17

US Open, Merion Golf Club, Ardmore, Pennsylvania, June 14-17


Merion Golf Club hosts the US Open this week for the first time since Australia’s David Graham hoisted the championship trophy in 1981. Merion is an old-style, strategic golf course of just 6996 yards, par 70, set atop a naturally flowing property in one of the Main Line communities west of Philadelphia. It is known for its narrow, winding fairways, its deep-faced bunkers, its interspersed blind shots, its varying green complexes and its overall consistent shot values made more challenging by a potent and plentiful growth of rough.

The East Course, opened in 1912, is regarded as one of the finest classical tests in America if not the world. Holes vary from the tiny par-three 13th to the brutal par-five fourth, with one driveable par-four only a few yards longer than three monster par-threes. It really should be an all-round test of golf and that's always the aim of a US Open. Par should be a good score and while the length of this course won't defend it, thick, multi-layered rough, narrow targets and typically fast greens will demand precision and patience.

However, if there’s one thing that can come to the rescue of players in a US Open it’s the weather, and a recent deluge in Pennsylvania has dramatically changed the picture at Merion. Although fanciful to suggest that sodden fairways will allow the big-hitting stars of modern golf to take apart this traditional layout, where par might’ve won this championship during a dry spell, it certainly won’t if the course remains soft.


Formlines are tough to apply here although it’s interesting to note that 13 of the last 16 major champions were winning one for the first time and if we narrow down to the events on US soil, names are pretty fresh: Rory McIlroy (twice), Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, Graeme McDowell and Charl Schwartzel are all top-class golfers but somewhat remarkably at the time of winning, 32-year-old Scott is the senior man. Outside the obvious choices of Woods and Mickelson, here’s where we’ll be playing:

Dustin Johnson could well have already won three majors. He forfeited a three-shot lead in the 2010 US Open at Pebble Beach. Then, he fell foul of a local rule in the 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits. In 2011 he had every chance in the Open Championship with five holes left. DJ produced a timely return to form at TPC Southwind last week, a tough, technical layout with a share of 10th. Ranking second on tour for driving distance, he will be able to take whatever club he wants off most tees here.

Sergio Garcia hasn't finished outside the top 25 of an event since missing the cut in last year’s PGA Championship, a run of 18 tournaments. It's the result of a dramatically improved short game. Garcia currently sits second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting and, perhaps crucially here, is first in scrambling from the rough. Garcia also ranks sixth in par-four performance, always a key pointer on a technical par 70 like Merion, and his last PGA Tour win came at a rain-softened Sedgefield Country Club late last year.

Russell Henley made a perfect start in his first PGA Tour event as a full member, winning the Sony Open in Hawaii. Henley has added sixth-placed finishes at Harbour Town and Memorial to underline his versatility. A superb driver of the ball who ranks inside the top-10 on tour for strokes gained putting, there appear no weaknesses in the Henley game.

Rickie Fowler isn’t firing on all cylinders but as a player who regards himself among the world's best, maybe he's been gearing up to this event. Fowler was the undoubted star of the 2009 Walker Cup at Merion, winning all four of his matches, and although this is a higher level that experience of the layout must surely count for something.

Ryan Moore finished sixth at Quail Hollow earlier this season and fifth a year earlier, underlining his enjoyment of a classical test like Merion. A former US Amateur winner, there's time yet for Moore to fulfil his undoubted potential and that eye-catching effort last time provides a perfect platform for a run here.

Kyle Stanley is a supremely talented player with a trio of top-six finishes from his last six events including sixth at Quail Hollow. Last time out he was third at Muirfield Village, ranking third in the all-around, and it was that effort which squeezed him into this field via the Official World Golf Rankings.

Suggested bets (one unit each)

Dustin Johnson (win-E/W) $34 LOSE
Sergio Garcia (win-E/W) $41 LOSE
Rickie Fowler (win-E/W) $51 T10 ($5)
Ryan Moore (top 25) $3 LOSE
Russell Henley (top 25) $3.25 LOSE
Kyle Stanley (top 25) $3.75 LOSE

Racing for June 13

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic – abandoned), Wyong (NSW), Toowoomba (Qld), Northam (WA). Harness racing: Tamworth (NSW), Maryborough (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Swan Hill (Vic), Penrith (NSW), Narrogin (WA). Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Hobart (Tas), Dapto (NSW), Mandurah (WA)

We may have missed out yesterday but we’re sticking with the John O’Shea stable and Nash Rawiller for today’s best bet of the day. With the Seymour meeting abandoned as heavy rain drenches Victoria, it’s all eyes on Toowoomba, Northam and Wyong, where #1 Cheers Browe will jump from barrier 3 in race 4, the WRC Life Members Maiden Plate over 1600m. In seven starts, he’s placed on five occasions including a run of three successive runner-up finishes including a close-up second to Runhardasun at Canterbury three weeks ago over 1550m. He’s yet to sight a track worse than dead (slow (7) at Wyong today) but that’s the only knock on this 3yo Savabeel gelding.

Suggested bet: Wyong R4 #1 Cheers Browe WIN (two units @ $2.60) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Wyong R1 #7 Stylish Lad (E/W 1x4) 1st ($4.40/$1.20)
Wyong R5 #1 Leica Star (win) 1st ($4.00)
Toowoomba R2 #1 Lotto Hill (win) 1st ($1.40)
Toowoomba R3 #2 Spent (E/W) 3rd (NTD)
Toowoomba R6 #7 Parafire (E/W) 1st ($4.60/$1.70)
Northam R5 #4 Strictly Boardroom (win) 1st ($1.60)
Northam R8 #10 Double Jester (win) 1st ($4.70)

Harness racing tip: Nyah at Swan Hill R6 #1 Conflict of Interest (win) 1st ($1.60)
Greyhound racing tip: Dapto R10 #2 Good Odds Demon (win) LOSE (3rd)


MLB for June 13

New York Yankees (37-27, 18-14 away) @ Oakland Athletics (39-27, 19-10 home), O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Thursday, June 13, 12.10pm



• Place a bet on the ‘head to head’ market for any MLB match and if your team is ahead coming into the 9th but lose the match, Centrebet will refund your first bet up to $100 cash!

The Oakland Athletics are enjoying their longest home win streak in seven seasons as well as their longest at home against the New York Yankees in 12 years. The Athletics also have won seven of Dan Straily’s nine outings as they look to extend both streaks here. The club is a major league-best 19-5 since May 17, and its starters have gone 14-3 with an AL-best 2.53 ERA in that span including a 1.37 ERA during this streak at home.

The Yankees will go with Phil Hughes (3-4, 4.80) who ended a four-start winless stretch on Saturday by allowing an unearned run over seven innings in a 6-1 victory at Seattle. Hughes’ best outing was a May 4 gem against the Athletics in which he struck out nine over eight scoreless innings to earn a 4-2 victory. The Yankees are 5-1 when he starts against Oakland even though he owns a 4.63 ERA in those outings.

Suggested bet: Yankees WIN (two units @ $2.01) LOSE, game total -7.5 (two units @ $1.95) WIN (2-5)

Other tips

NL: Reds WIN $1.85 @ Cubs WIN (2-1)
NL: Giants @ Pirates -1.5 $2.13 WIN (8-12)
NL: Cardinals -1.5 $1.87 @ Mets LOSE (1-5)
NL: Brewers @ Marlins WIN $1.97 LOSE (10-1)
NL: Nationals @ Rockies -11 $1.95 WIN (5-1)
AL: Angels @ Orioles +9.5 $1.92 WIN (9-5)
AL: Tigers @ Royals -7.5 $2.00 WIN (2-3)
AL: Indians @ Rangers +10 $1.91 LOSE (5-2)
AL: Blue Jays @ White Sox -1.5 $2.30 POSTPONED
AL: Astros @ Mariners WIN $1.67 LOSE (6-1)

NHL Stanley Cup Finals for June 13

Game 1: Boston Bruins @ Chicago Blackhawks, United Center, Chicago, IL, Thursday, June 13, 10.10am

The Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins are bidding to secure their second title of the decade when the two Original Six rivals open their Stanley Cup final series at the United Center. Chicago, which won its last championship in 2010 with a six-game triumph over the Philadelphia Flyers, began this season on a sensational 24-game point streak (21-0-3) en route to recording the second Presidents' Trophy in franchise history. Boston is vying for its second title in three years, having defeated Vancouver in seven games in 2011.

While the Bruins’ David Krejci boasts an NHL-leading nine goals and 21 points, the offensive contributions from the team's defencemen cannot be overlooked. Blue-liner Johnny Boychuk leads the pack with five goals, rookie Torey Krug has added four and captain Zdeno Chara notched 11 points. Tuukka Rask (12-4, 1.75 GAA, .943 save percentage) recorded his first two post-season shutouts in the Eastern Conference final.

Chicago’s Patrick Kane broke out of his slump in a big way, scoring in Game 4 against the Kings before his double-overtime winner completed a hat-trick in Game 5 to win the Western Conference final. Corey Crawford (12-4, 1.74 GAA, .935 save percentage) has silently put together solid numbers in net. We’re leaning to the home side here – they are 7-1 in their last 8 versus Eastern Conference teams and 9-1 at home during the postseason.

Suggested bet: Blackhawks WIN (2.5 units @ $1.68) WIN, game total +5 (1.5 units @ $2.15) WIN (3-4)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

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