Friday 3 May 2013

Daily tips for May 4



Racing for May 4

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Newcastle (NSW), Benalla (Vic), Ballina (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Mackay (Qld), Pioneer Park (NT), Toowoomba (Qld)
Harness racing: Canberra (ACT), Newcastle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Ballarat (Vic), Globe Derby (SA)
Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA)

Some unfamiliar venues take centre stage for today’s racing, with the annual stand-alone meeting at Hawkesbury, Hollindale Stakes day at the Gold Coast and the Group 1 Centrebet South Australian Derby at Morphettville.

We reckon #3 Shoreham is a huge chance to give Chris Symons his first Group 1 winner. Just shaded by Hvasstan and Hioctdane in the market, Shoreham ran out an excellent 2500m to win at Flemington in the Galilee Final on April 13 and looks a massive chance for trainer Saab Hasan here.

For our best of the day, we head to race 3 (the Secondbite Fresh Food Rescue Hcp over 1400m) at Flemington. Owned by John Singleton, #6 Strawberry Boy was moved to the moody stables well before last week’s bust-up with Gai Waterhouse.

The 4yo gelding is having his first start in Melbourne but has won four of his seven starts, including two first-up, and was placed at G3 level two starts back. He looks a class above this bunch and should salute at a good’s thing price of $1.90.

Suggested bet: Flemington R3 #6 Strawberry Boy (three units @ $1.90) WIN

Others tips

Hawkesbury R2 #3 Zoustar (win) 1st ($2.40)
Hawkesbury R3 #5 Calvo (E/W) LOSE (U/P)


Morphettville R6 #9 Couldn’t Agreemore (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville R7 #3 Shoreham (E/W) 3rd ($1.70)

Gold Coast R1 #4 Studio (win) WIN ($1.70)
Gold Coast R2 #5 Typhoon Red (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Greyhound racing tips

The Meadows R8 #1 Veyron Bale (win) LOSE (2nd)Cannington R7 #7 Freeway Ace (win) WIN ($1.70)

AFL (rd 6) for May 4

Essendon v Greater Western Sydney, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, May 4, 1.45pm

While the soap opera continues off the field, the Bombers continue to leave their troubles in the change rooms with their 5-0 start to the season the best since their premiership-winning year of 2000.

It’s hard to see their massive percentage of 176.7 suffering too much damage here as the ladder leaders take on 18th-placed Greater Western Sydney, who’ve made seven changes for this game.

Kevin Sheedy (coaching against his former club for the final time) has watched his young side drop away badly in the final quarter of their past two games, and the injury list steadily grow. If the Bombers come to play, this could be an ugly afternoon for the Giants.

Suggested bet: Essendon -90.5 LOSE (120-81)

Nth Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Blundstone Arena, Hobart, Saturday, May 4, 2.10pm

Toughest game of the round to call – the undefeated Power start three-goal outsiders against a Kangaroos (1-4) outfit given no favours by the draw in their opening five games.
Despite competitive showings against Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn, Brad Scott’s side now have little margin of error if they are to feature in the finals picture.

It promises to be cold and blustery for this game, which won’t help the tall timber at either end of the park. As impressive as Port have been, they fell over the line against an Eagles side that kicked itself out of the game last week and face their toughest test of the season to date.

Suggested bet: Nth Melbourne 1-39 (WIN 93-83)

Adelaide v Hawthorn, AAMI Stadium, Saturday, May 4, 4.40pm

It’s hard to believe the last time these two sides met that the Hawks barely scraped over the line and into the 2012 Grand Final. Since then, Kurt Tippett has headed for the Swans in controversial circumstances and Taylor Walker’s season ended last week due to injury, leaving the Crows forward line sorely undermanned.

Their average score had already fallen 15 points per game on last year. Hawthorn lost a star of its own last week when Cyril Rioli suffered another hamstring injury last week but they look well placed to improve on a record that reads 1-11 in their past 11 visits to AAMI Stadium.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn -23.5 (two units) LOSE (78-89)

Richmond v Geelong, MCG, Saturday, May 4, 7.40pm

This is the first meeting between the Tigers and Cats at the MCG since 2008 and you have to look back to 2006 to find the last time Richmond has claimed victory in this fixture. While the Tigers will be desperate to atone for last week’s nail-biting loss to Fremantle, this looks a tough task for a Richmond side that has yet to hits its straps this season.

A lack of pressure on the opposition ball carriers has proved telling for the Tigers in the past fortnight (the return of Chaplin, Morris and King will help), and while Geelong hardly impressed in last week’s 21-point win over the Bulldogs, it’s just two weeks since Chris Scott’s side went to Sydney and beat the reigning premiers by the same amount.

Suggested bet: Geelong -17.5 WIN (87-131)

Gold Coast v Fremantle, Metricon Stadium, Saturday, May 4, 7.40pm

Freo escaped with the points here last year and face another stern test from the drastically improved Suns, who are coming off a club record score and winning margin over GWS last year.

Both sides have taken strides since last year, with the Suns increasing their scoring output and ability to clear the ball at stoppages while the Dockers defensive intensity is the envy of the competition.

Harley Bennell returns for the Suns while the Dockers will be without Stephen Hill, Nate Fyfe and Kepler Bradley. Gold Coast isn’t quite up to this standard yet, but will certainly keep the visitors honest.

Suggested bet: Fremantle 1-24 (LOSE 54-99)

MLB for May 4

Detroit Tigers (16-11) @ Houston Astros (8-21), Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX, Saturday, May 4, 10.10am

The Tigers’ Doug Fister and the Astros’ Bud Norris are five-year Major League veterans, but both will venture into uncharted territory here. With the Astros in their first season in the American League and facing only their second series against the Tigers since 2006, neither hurler comes in with any experience against their opponent.

The Astros will be trying to even the series after the Tigers outlasted them for a 7-3, 14-inning victory. Houston has lost seven of its past eight, while Detroit has won six of seven. Fister has found success against everyone in his path this season, going 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA.

Norris (3-3, 4.20) has a 2.45 ERA outside of one rough outing at Oakland on April 17. The righty is responsible for two of Houston’s seven quality starts, which ranks them last in the Majors. That’s a number manager Bo Porter hopes his rotation can turn around soon, especially coming off a game in which he deployed all seven of his relievers.

Suggested bet: Tigers -1.5 (two units @ $1.87*) LOSE, game total -8 (two units @ $2.00*) WIN (4-3)

Other tips

Reds WIN @ Cubs WIN (6-5)
Athletics @ Yankees -8 WIN (2-0)
Mariners WIN @ Blue Jays WIN (4-0)
Nationals @ Pirates WIN WIN (1-3)
Red Sox @ Rangers -9 WIN (0-7)
Mets @ Braves WIN LOSE (7-5)
Rays @ Rockies -9 LOSE (7-4)
Orioles @ Angels WIN WIN (0-4)
Dodgers @ Giants -7.5 WIN (1-2)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

NHL playoffs for May 4

Eastern Conference quarter-finals, game 2: New York Islanders @ Pittsburgh Penguins, CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA, Saturday, May 4, 9.10am (Penguins lead 1-0)

The New York Islanders had plenty of issues to address after the Pittsburgh Penguins cruised to a remarkably easy 5-0 victory in Game 1. Now, they’ll also have to figure out how to stop Sidney Crosby (pictured below). He makes his return to the ice after missing more than a month with a broken jaw as the Penguins look to take a 2-0 lead on the inexperienced Islanders.



The question of when Crosby would return lingered in the lead-up to this series, but Pittsburgh hardly looked like it needed its captain in Game 1, scoring four times in less than 20 minutes from the middle of the first period to the middle of the second.

One player who didn't look comfortable at all in Game 1 was the center who was taken No. 1 overall four years after Crosby. Budding Islanders star John Tavares, the NHL’s third-leading goal scorer, failed to get a shot away, the first time all year Tavares failed to get at least one puck on the net.

Suggested bet: Penguins -1.5 (two units @ $2.22*) LOSE, game total +5.5 (two units @ $1.91*) WIN (4-3)

Other tips

ECQF2: Senators @ Canadiens WIN (1-0) WIN (1-3)
ECQF2: Islanders @ Penguins -1.5 LOSE, +5.5 (1-0) WIN (4-3)
WCQF2: Wild @ Blackhawks -1.5 WIN, -5 (0-1) LOSE (2-5)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

NBA playoffs for May 4

Western Conference playoffs, round 1, game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets, Toyota Center, Houston, TX, Saturday, May 4, 12.40pm (Thunder lead 3-2)

Kevin Durant has scored 74 points combined in Oklahoma City’s past two games against the Houston Rockets. The problem is that his teammates haven't stepped up to take some pressure off the superstar, and the Rockets have won both of those games.

Houston has cut the Thunder’s lead to 3-2 in the series, and is looking to become the first team in NBA history to overcome a 0-3 series deficit to win a best-of-seven playoff series.

While Oklahoma City is without All-Star Russell Westbrook for the rest of the season, the Rockets are dealing with several health issues as well. Point guard Jeremy Lin has missed the past two games with a bruised chest muscle while James Harden had been diagnosed with strep throat, but is expected to play.

Suggested bet: Rockets WIN (three units @ $1.83*) LOSE (103-94)

Other tips

E6: Knicks @ Celtics +2 LOSE, +181 (3-2) WIN (88-80)
E6: Pacers WIN @ Hawks (3-2) WIN (81-73)
W6: Clippers @ Grizzlies WIN (3-2) WIN (105-118)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

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