Daily tips for May 25

Football for May 25

UEFA Champions League Final, Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich, Wembley Stadium, London, UK, Sunday, May 26, 4.45am

The Germans have finally invaded England! It’s an all-Bundesliga Champions League final with the all-conquering Bayern Munich taking on Borussia Dortmund. Bayern have won 24 of their last 26 matches, a run which included a two-legged demolition of long-time trophy favourites Barcelona in the semi-finals. While things look rosy in the Bayern camp, the same cannot be said for Dortmund, who headed to Wembley without a win in their last four games and minus one of their star players in the Bayern-bound Mario Goetze.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have had success stifling Bayern’s strength out wide with the likes of Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben given plenty of close attention. The finalists met on four occasions this season with the scores 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 (Bayern win) and 1-0 (Bayern win). Bayern have only conceded only 18 goals in 34 Bundesliga games and with a defensive bent expected again here, the under total looks the way to go.

Suggested bets: Game total -2.5 (two units @ $2.05) LOSE, Bayern WIN (1.5 units @ $1.76) WIN, Bayern 1-0 (0.5 units @ $6.75) LOSE (1-2)

AFL R9 for May 25

Port Adelaide v Geelong, AAMI Stadium, Saturday, May 25, 1.15pm

Port’s loss to Carlton last week indicates that the bubble has burst for Ken Hinkley’s side after such a promising start to the season. It doesn’t get easier for the Power as they host Geelong for the first time since 2008. Perhaps most concerning has been the alarming drop-off in the output of players like Justin Westhoff and Hamish Hartlett. On the rebound after being pipped at the post by the Pies, the Cats regain Steve Johnson and should have Joel Selwood off the leash after a series of hard tags on their champion midfielder. Geelong has won this fixture comfortably in the past and should continue their dominance.

Suggested bet: Geelong -26.5 WIN (68-116)

Greater Western Sydney v West Coast, Skoda Stadium, Saturday, May 25, 2.10pm

Both sides may lie outside the eight but that’s where the concept of a tight contest ends as the Giants have yet to finish within five goals in any game so far this season. The Eagles lose Beau Waters, Adam Selwood, Will Schofield and Sharrod Wellingham for this game, and needed a goal after the siren to overtake a gallant North Melbourne in Perth last week. Despite the margin, Greater Western Sydney showed some renewed vigour at the contest against the Hawks last week, and given the wet conditions and no major change to their line-up, should be able to keep the margin inside the line on their home track.

Suggested bet: Greater Western Sydney +67.5 LOSE (55-155)

St Kilda v Footscray, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, May 25, 4.40pm

Disappointingly for punters, the mainstream media started to ask questions about the Bulldogs during the week so the value they’ve served up in recent weeks may be a thing of the past. It’s 15th versus 16th here, but these sides are miles apart. The Saints have big problems in front of goal but have beaten the Dogs in their past eight, and Footscray has failed to score more than 76 points in any of those games. Brendan McCartney’s side ran out of puff in each of the four quarters against Gold Coast last week, which casts serious questions over their fitness and/or commitment. Either way, St Kilda wins this in a canter.

Suggested bet: St Kilda -31.5 LOSE (101-110)

Brisbane Lions v Carlton, Gabba, Saturday, May 25, 7.40pm

One of the trickier games of the round, Brisbane is back home to take on Carlton after meritorious win over Essendon last week. The Lions beat the Blues in the NAB Cup Grand Final – form that normally holds up in the early stages of the home and away season. It’s taken the Lions six weeks to regain that winning form but they’re back home with another big scalp in mind. The 4-4 Blues failed to deliver a killer blow against Port last week and, despite having dominated Brisbane in recent meetings, face another stern challenge here. An upset wouldn’t surprise in a game where goals will be premium.

Suggested bets: Game total -184.5 (three units) WIN, Lions +14.5 WIN (85-98)

Richmond v Essendon, MCG, Saturday, May 25, 7.45pm

It’s a long time since these two sides have faced off while both occupying spots in the eight. After that stunning start to 2013, the Bombers have dropped two in a row, almost mirroring their form of 2011-12. Michael Hurley looks set to play after suffering concussion last week, while Courtenay Dempsey and Leroy Jetta return. The Tigers, with Chris Newman and ruckman Ivan Maric, have traditionally struggled against the better sides but will fancy their chances in a fixture that’s been split 5-5 in the past 10 meetings. Coming off wins over Port and Melbourne, Richmond looks primed for a breakout game to stamp themselves as genuine contenders. In front of 80,000 spectators at the ‘G’, this could be the night.

Suggested bet: Richmond WIN LOSE (62-91)

Racing for May 25

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Donald (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Wagga (NSW), Mackay (Qld), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Toowoomba (Qld)

Harness racing: Albury (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Menangle (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Harvey (WA)

Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA)

The Doomben 10,000 in Brisbane is the highlight of today’s local racing program while the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas is the feature event on the international scene later tonight. However, our best of the day comes up at Caulfield in race 7, the appropriately named Responsible Gambling Awareness Week Hcp from 4yo mares and upwards over 1200m.

A genuine track specialist, the Mick Kent-trained #1 Serene Star won here on April 27 and backed up a fortnight later with an eye-catching second behind Elite Elle. On that day, the track played to leaders and Serene Star was one of the few runners to make up ground late in the race. She’ll need space behind likely leaders Anabaa's Legacy, Classy Chloe and Bonnie Mac, but looks ideally placed here.

Suggested bet: Caulfield R7 #1 Serene Star WIN (two units @ $3.00) 3rd ($1.90)

Other tips

Caulfield R3 #4 Shiny Buttons (E/W) 1st ($4.80/$1.80)

Caulfield R5 #8 Spending (E/W) 2nd ($3.20)

Caulfield R9 #5 Strawberry Boy (win) 1st ($1.70)

Randwick R1 #2 Everage (win) LOSE (2nd)

Randwick R2 #5 Mishani Persuader (place) 2nd ($2.20)

Randwick R4 #2 Vatuvel (win) LOSE (3rd)

Randwick R5 #2 Cuddlesome (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R6 #12 Gasquet (win) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R3 #13 Peron (win) 1st ($2.80)

Doomben R8 #10 Epaulette (E/W) 1st ($5.80/$2.30)

Morphettville R3 #6 Horacio (E/W) 1st ($3.20/$1.40)

Morphettville R6 #1 Road Warrior (win) LOSE (2nd)

Harness racing tip: Globe Derby R4 #3 Elliott Bromac (win) LOSE (U/P)

Greyhound racing tip: The Meadow R5 #1 Tee Brady (win) 1st ($1.60)

MLB for May 25

St Louis Cardinals (30-16) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (19-26), Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Saturday, May 25, 12,10pm

It’s easy to over-analyse MLB games when the key facts are there plain as day. This is one of those games where the value is outstanding. While Dodgers manager Don Mattingly's job has become a hot topic of debate, things figure to blow over if the club starts putting wins together. Doing so, however, could prove difficult against the MLB-leading Cardinals.

Lance Lynn gets the ball for the Cards here – he’s had a 1.80 ERA over his previous five starts, is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts against Los Angeles, which counters with Chris Capuano (1-2, 4.84). He is 1-5 with a 6.58 ERA over his last 10 starts versus St Louis, and his career 5.83 ERA against the Cardinals is tied for his highest against any NL opponent.

Suggested bet: Cardinals WIN (four units @ $1.85) WIN (7-0)

Other tips

Orioles @ Blue Jays WIN LOSE (10-6)

Phillies @ Nationals WIN WIN (2-5)

Twins @ Tigers -1.5 WIN (0-6)

Indians @ Red Sox -9 PUSH (1-8)

Braves @ Mets -7.5 GAME SUSPENDED

Yankees WIN @ Rays WIN (9-4)

Pirates WIN @ Brewers LOSE (1-2)

Angels WIN @ Royals +8 WIN (5-2)

Athletics WIN @ Astros WIN (6-5)

NHL playoffs for May 25

Eastern Conference semi-final, game 5: Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins, CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA, Saturday, May 25, 10.40am

Ottawa Senators captain Daniel Alfredsson isn't quite ready for the traditional season-ending handshake. Yet he knows if the Senators can't find a way to slow down slow down the Pittsburgh Penguins, it’s coming soon. The Penguins grabbed a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference semi-finals with a 7-3 rout on Thursday night, leading Alfredsson to offer Ottawa “probably” can’t win three straight.

The Penguins moved within a game of a berth in the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2009 by erupting for four goals in the third period, overwhelming the Senators in a brilliant display of firepower. Pittsburgh ran into a similar situation two years ago when it took a 3-1 lead in the first round against Tampa Bay only to lose in seven games, including a 1-0 defeat at home in Game 7. That won’t happen here, with the puck-line appealing.

Suggested bet: Penguins -1.5 (two units @ $2.45) WIN, game total -5.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (2-6)

NBA playoffs for May 25

Eastern Conference final, game 2: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Saturday, May 25, 10.40am

Losing a game at the final buzzer, no less than a playoff game on the road against the reigning NBA champion Miami Heat, would seem to have potential to demoralise the Indiana Pacers. We’re not expecting that to be the case. Barely 12 hours after LeBron James scored on a drive as time expired in overtime to give the Heat a win in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, the Pacers were more steeled than shaken when they arrived for practice at the arena where it all went awry in the series opener.

For as intense and down-to-the-wire as Game 1 was, with 35 ties or lead changes over 53 scintillating minutes where neither team ever held more than a seven-point lead, both the Pacers and Heat are expecting significant improvement. It's easy to see how that could be the case, after a series-opener where both teams were turnover-happy (20 for Indiana, 21 for Miami), hardly the norm for either side, and play was at times choppy thanks in part to 58 personal fouls being called.

Suggested bet: Game total +182 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, Pacers +7.5 (one unit @$1.91) WIN (97-93)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication