Saturday 25 May 2013

Daily tips for May 26




Motor racing for May 26

It’s one of the great nights on the motorsport calendar with three iconic events over the next 12 hours – the F1 Monaco Grand Prix, the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca Cola 600; the longest race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule.


• Let’s start with the Coca Cola 600 in Charlotte, the home base for the vast majority of the teams. Five-time champion Jimmie Johnson owns a superb record on this 1.5-mile superspeedway, but it’s hard to ignore the recent record of Kyle Busch in the #18 JGR Toyota. He’s completely dominating the second tier Nationwide Series (including today’s race at Charlotte) and has won twice in the Sprint Cup this season.  Busch has never won a Sprint Cup point race at Charlotte but appears to be way overdue after finishing in the top five in five of his last six races here.

• Next to the iconic Monaco GP, where the sport's tyre supplier, Pirelli, will no doubt be relieved that attention now will be switched away from their rubber because the pace of the competitors around the streets of Monte Carlo will be determined primarily by the cars' agility, slow-corner handling and low-speed traction rather than the limits of the tyres as defined by each chassis. For something a bit different, we’re going with more than 16.5 cars to finish the race. Four cars were wiped out on the first lap in 2012 so if the field can avoid too much carnage, this should be a reasonably safe bet.

• Finally to Indy, where the 97th running of the world’s most famous 500-mile open-wheel race will feature two Aussies – Will Power and Ryan Briscoe. However, the story of the month has been the form of rookie Carlos Munoz. The Andretti Autosport Chevrolets look to be back on the pace after a few lean years at Indy, and the young Colombian has been flying. He’ll start from the centre of the front row but his rookie status means he’s priced at $34. Yes please.

Suggested bets

NASCAR Charlotte – Kyle Busch WIN (0.5 units @ $6.50) LOSE (DNF)
Monaco GP – over 16.5 Classified Drivers (two units @ $1.71) LOSE (15)
Indianapolis 500 – Carlos Munoz E/W (0.25 units WIN, one unit PODIUM) 2nd ($8.20)

Racing for May 26

Horse racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Nowra (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA), Casterton (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Devonport (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT)
Harness racing: Cootamundra (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Terang (Vic), Hobart (Tas)
Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Nowra (NSW), Gawler (SA), Sandown Park (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Sale (Vic), Healesville (Vic)

The racing spotlight is definitely abroad today, with the running of the G1 Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup at Sha Tin (Hong Kong), Craig Williams takes the ride on Codino in the Tokyo Yushun while the Tattersalls Gold Cup and Etihad Airways 1000 Guineas highlight the meeting at the Curragh in Ireland.

Pioneer Park in Alice Springs is about as far away from the international racing arena, but that’s where our best of the day comes up in the Unibet 0-64 Hcp over 1100m (race 3). #6 Northern Showers is trained by Kath North in the Alice, and is a last start winner over 1000m at Tennant Creek. The 5yo gelding also won here last month and looks well placed from barrier 4.

Suggested bet: Alice Springs R3 #6 Northern Showers E/W (two units) 1st ($2.70/$1.40)

Other tips

Cranbourne R2 #3 Badged (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Cranbourne R12 #5 Il Migliore (E/W) 1st ($8.80/$2.90)
Wyong R7 #7 Bilko (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Sunshine Coast R7 #12 Stolen Kisses (win) LOSE (2nd)

Harness racing tip: Terang R3 #1 Flaxton Filly (win) 1st ($1.30)
Greyhound racing tip: Healesville R11 #1 Dr Gee Gee (win) LOSE (2nd)

AFL (R9) for May 26

Hawthorn v Gold Coast, MCG, Sunday, May 26, 1.10pm

Since dropping the season opener to Geelong, the Hawks are seven without loss and that will surely improve to eight when they host the vastly improved Gold Coast on Sunday. The Suns are coming off back-to-back wins for the first time and head back to the venue at which they humbled Melbourne two weeks ago, minus injured duo Harley Bennell and Zac Smith. The Hawks barely made it out of third gear against GWS in Launceston last week in a surprisingly competitive contest belied by the scoreboard. In their three meetings so far, the biggest margin has been 71 points so the line holds significant appeal here.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast +67.5 WIN, game total +196.5 WIN (118-92)

North Melbourne v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, Sunday, May 26, 3.20pm

With a little luck, the Roos would be 6-2 including the scalps of Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast. Instead, the record shows losses to those three sides by less than a goal but the draw now opens up to leave North with some hope of making the eight. But that charge must here against an Adelaide side that is earning a reputation as one of the better defensive outfits in the competition after conceding just 13 goals in the past two weeks. Both sides are unchanged here for a fixture that has been “horses for courses” in the past five. The market looks about right with only the smallest lean to North at the line.

Suggested bet: North Melbourne -14.5 LOSE, game total +194.5 WIN (124-125)

Fremantle v Melbourne, Patersons Stadium, Sunday, May 26, 4.40pm

Still not sure how they managed it, but Freo left Sydney with a draw last week after trailing by more than four goals in the final quarter of a low scoring affair. Somehow Ross Lyon is keeping his side buoyant in the face of a long injury list (with Michael Walters added) and things get much easier here for the battered and bruised Dockers. Melbourne showed plenty of fight for three quarters against the Tigers but the core problems that have beset the Demons – starting with the coach – remain. They haven’t won in Perth for a decade, losing 13 straight. The margin here will only be decided by Lyon’s management of his limited player resources.

Suggested bet: Fremantle -62.5 WIN, game total -170.5 WIN (130-40)

MLB for May 26

Oakland Athletics (26-23) @ Houston Astros (14-34), Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX, Sunday, May 26, 9.15am

A late home run by Houston native Chris Young helped the Oakland Athletics continue their winning streak against the Astros yesterday. A.J. Griffin will try to extend that run to 10 when Oakland also goes for a seventh consecutive victory at Houston. Oakland (26-23) opened this series with a 6-5 victory Friday. Young's three-run homer in the ninth inning was the difference as the A's improved to 12-1 all-time against the newest member of the AL. Oakland, winner of six of seven overall, is undefeated against Houston (14-34) since a 5-4, 11-inning road loss June 12, 2007.

The Astros continue their eight-game home stand with Lucas Harrell (3-5, 4.63) going for his first win in five starts. Houston has lost the right-hander's last four outings, though he gave up one run in seven innings of a 1-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Harrell, who allowed a homer to Pedro Alvarez, hadn’t gotten past the fifth in four outings. He wasn’t nearly that good in a 9-3 home loss to Oakland on April 7, giving up eight runs, allowing three homers and walking five in 4 1/3 innings.

Suggested bet: Athletics -1.5 (three units @ $2.00) WIN (11-5)

Other tips

Orioles @ Blue Jays +9 WIN (6-5)
Rockies WIN @ Giants LOSE (5-6)
Marlins @ White Sox -7 WIN (1-2)
Twins @ Tigers WIN LOSE (3-2)
Indians @ Red Sox WIN WIN (4-7)
Yankees @ Rays -7.5 WIN (4-3)
Pirates WIN @ Brewers WIN (5-2)
Angels WIN @ Royals WIN (7-0)
Cardinals WIN @ Dodgers LOSE (3-5)
Padres @ Diamondbacks -9 LOSE (10-4)

NHL playoffs for May 26

Western Conference semi-final, game 4: Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings, United Center, Chicago, IL, Sunday, May 26, 10.10am (Red Wings lead series 3-1)

It’s quite the change from the end of the regular season, when the Red Wings won their last four games to secure a spot in the post-season. Then they were down 3-2 in the first round against Anaheim before taking the last two, including a road victory in Game 7. Now they’re in control against the top-seeded Blackhawks, and eager to deliver a knockout blow.

The upstart Red Wings have completely blanketed Chicago – Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa combined for three shots in Game 4. Patrick Sharp got off to a great start in the postseason, but is without a point in the past two games. The few times Chicago’s stars have managed to wriggle free, Jimmy Howard has been right there. The 29-year-old goalie has stopped 86 of 88 shots over the past three games for a sparkling .977 save percentage.

Only 24 teams have come back to win a best-of-seven NHL playoff series after dropping three of the first four games. That’s out of 265 opportunities, or 9.1 per cent. Tampa Bay was the last team to accomplish the feat in 2011. The Blackhawks faced a similar situation when they lost the first three games of a playoff series against Vancouver two years ago. They managed to force a Game 7 and lost 2-1 in overtime.

Suggested bet: Red Wings WIN LOSE (one unit @ $2.50), game total -5 (three units @ $1.83) WIN (1-3)

Other tips

ECSF5: Rangers WIN LOSE @ Bruins -5 PUSH (1-4)

NBA playoffs for May 26

Western Conference finals, game 3: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies, FedExForum, Memphis, TN, Sunday, May 26, 11.05am (Spurs lead 2-0)

The Grizzlies are down 0-2 to San Antonio in their first Western Conference final, but they take heart in knowing they dug themselves out of a 0-2 hole in the first round against the Clippers. No NBA team has won separate series in the same post-season after losing the first two games but Memphis return to the arena they call the ‘Grindhouse’ where they set a franchise record winning 32 games there this season, and they are 19-1 here since February 8. Memphis has lost three straight only twice this season, the last in mid-January.

The home team has won 17 of the last 20 games between these teams, and the Spurs lost both trips to Memphis during the regular season. With strong memories of blowing a 2-0 lead to Oklahoma City in the Western finals, the Spurs know the games in Memphis will be hard. It would be tough for the Grizzlies to shoot much worse than they did in the first two games in San Antonio, including a stretch where they missed seven straight layups in one sequence. They also missed 15 of 18 attempts inside 5 feet in the first half.

Suggested bet: Grizzlies -5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -180 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (86-86)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

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