Daily tips for May 11

Football for May 11

FA Cup Final, Manchester City v Wigan Athletic, Wembley Stadium, London, UK, Sunday, May 12, 2am

Manchester City and Wigan Athletic will do battle at Wembley Stadium on Saturday for the right to be crowned FA Cup winners 2013. City will be treating the game as an opportunity to salvage something from a disappointing campaign, with it important for them to avoid ending the season empty-handed.

Roberto Mancini's side lifted the trophy back in 2011 and will be determined to return it to their trophy cabinet two years on. The Blues have seen off Watford, Stoke City, Leeds United, Barnsley and cup holders Chelsea to reach the final.

Wigan’s route through the competition was even more straightforward, with only one Premier League rival faced along the way. The Latics dumped out Everton in the quarter-finals, and also brought an end to Bournemouth, Macclesfield Town, Huddersfield Town and Millwall’s cup dreams.

While delighted to have enjoyed such a productive run, the FA Cup is not the top priority for Wigan this term. They remain inside the Premier League drop zone with just two games left to play, so will be hoping a day out at Wembley provides a late spark rather than an unwelcome distraction.

With City having already booked their place in the UEFA Champions League for next season through their Premier League standing, Wigan are guaranteed a place in the 2013-14 Europa League regardless of how they fare here.

History, both in terms of this competition and Wigan's record against City, offers no salvation for the Latics and their fans. In 15 of the last 19 FA Cup finals only one team has scored, including several notable examples where a side has held a clear advantage in terms of class, and the last seven times Wigan have played City they've lost without finding the net.

Suggested bets: Teams to score – Man City only (two units @ $2.25), exact score 2-0 (0.5 units @ $5.25), exact score 3-0 (0.5 units @ $7.00) LOSE (0-1)

Other EPL tips

Aston Villa v Chelsea +2.5 WIN (1-2)

Liverpool WIN v Fulham

Stoke City v Tottenham WIN

QPR v Newcastle -2.5

NRL (rd 9) for May 11

Parramatta Eels v Brisbane Broncos, Parramatta Stadium, Saturday, May 11, 7.30pm

The Broncos look good things here. The Rabbitohs may have outlasted Brisbane last week but that result broke a string of three straight wins – and the Queenslanders will be viewing that result as a blip in what has otherwise been a solid month. Even last week they seemed to be on top during the first stanza as they took a lead into the break before the Bunnies blew them away in a three-try blitz shortly after the resumption. 

The Eels have lost to plenty of sides this year that have struggled to beat most other opposition, which doesn’t bode well given Brisbane’s form prior to the South Sydney game. It’s even more of a worry considering Brisbane’s awesome record at Parramatta Stadium – a venue that has, in recent years, become one of the less threatening road trips in the NRL.

Parramatta’s forward pack, spine, and interchange are rating quite poorly so far this season to go with the nine penalties they concede on average each game. The Broncos come into the match with a forward pack now one of the best rated in the NRL; Justin Hodges is back in while Josh McGuire adds plenty of depth to the bench.

Suggested bet: Broncos -6 (three units) LOSE (19-18)

Other tips: Warriors v Bulldogs +40.5 LOSE (16-24)

Racing for May 11

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Kembla Grange (NSW), Cranbourne (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Lismore (NSW – abandoned), Rockhampton (Qld), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Toowoomba (Qld)

Harness racing: Young (NSW), Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Shepparton (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Bunbury (WA) 

Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA)

Group one action continues today with the running of the Distinctive Homes Goodwood Hcp at Morphettville, while the sprinters will also take centre stage at Eagle Farm for the Bundaberg Distilling Co. BTC Cup, also over 1200m. Our best of the day comes up in the former, where a big field of 16 will chase a slice of the $500,000 in prizemoney up for grabs.

With Black Caviar happily retired and Hay List nowhere near his best, #1 Moment of Change looms an heir apparent to the crown. Winner of the Rupert Clarke Stakes last spring at Caulfield, the 4yo gelding also trailled home Black Caviar in the Lightning and Shamexpress in the Newmarket for successive Group 1 placings.

Some have questioned his last run when last of 10 in the Canterbury Stakes but he gave champion Pierro 3kgs and certainly didn’t enjoy the Sydney way of going. This looks much easier, and we actually think there’s some value about the $2.30 quote.

Suggested bet: Morphettville R7 #1 Moment of Change WIN (two units @ $2.30) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Caulfield R3 #8 The New Boy (E/W) 2nd ($2.20)

Caulfield R5 #1 Cardinal Virtue (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R7 #4 Midsummer Sun (E/W) 1st ($5.60/$1.80)

Caulfield R8 #1 Serene Star (E/W) 3rd ($2.00)

Rosehill R6 #6 Hoylonny (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R7 #11 Snitsky (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)

Eagle Farm R5 #7 Survived (win) LOSE (2nd)

Eagle Farm R7 #1 Buffering (win) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R2 #1 Summerbliss (win) LOSE (3rd)

Morphettville R6 #2 Linton (win) 1st ($2.10)

Morphettville R8 #2 Just Discreet (E/W) 2nd ($2.00)

Greyhound racing

Wentworth Park R2 #6 Slick ’Em Son (place) 3rd ($1.70)

Wentworth Park R6 #2 Pearl Irene (win) LOSE (U/P)

Wentworth Park R7 #2 Magic Billions (win) WIN ($4.40)

The Meadows R7 #2 Proven Impala (win) WIN ($1.70)

Cannington R8 #3 Hawk Alone LOSE (U/P

AFL (rd 7) for May 11

Port Adelaide v Richmond (AAMI Stadium, Saturday, May 11, 1.45pm AEST)

This looms as one of the most pivotal games in Damien Hardwick’s tenure at Richmond. After three straight losses, the Tigers head to West Lakes to meet the 2013 surprise packets Port Adelaide. Since 2005 the ledger stands 6-5 with four of Richmond’s wins have come at AAMI Stadium though, including three of the past four meetings at the venue.

Hardwick must be concerned with the second-half fadeouts against Collingwood and Geelong and the loss of skipper Trent Cotchin (one of five changes) but will have some solid intelligence on the Power from former coach Mark Williams and former player Troy Chaplin. Too tough to pick at the line, but with late rain forecast, we’ll play the under.

Suggested bet: Game total -190.5 WIN (73-114)

Brisbane Lions v West Coast (Gabba, Saturday, May 11, 2.10pm AEST)

Has the sleeping giant awakened? There were numerous signs last week that the Eagles are heading in the right direction after a lousy run of form and injuries to start the season. The Lions, who also have a 2-4 record, have Simon Black and Andrew Raines back.

The Eagles are almost back to full strength and should get more minutes out of wunderkind ruckman Nic Natanui here after his return last week. Brisbane has struggled for goals all season (averaging just 78 points per game) while John Worsfold has one of the most potent forward set-ups in the competition at his disposal.

Suggested bet: West Coast -23.5 WIN (82-108)

Footscray v North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium, Saturday, May 11, 4.40pm AEST)

Mark Neeld must scratch his head that his crosstown contemporary Brendan McCartney continues to escape scrutiny as his Bulldogs continue to underwhelm. The Bulldogs have lost five on the trot and have little hope of breaking the drought against a North Melbourne side eager to improve its record after a tough draw to start 2013.

Daniel Giansiracusa, Robert Murphy and Ryan Griffen are big ‘ins’ for the Doggies, but the Roos have Brent Harvey back after serving a six-match suspension. No need for complex assessments here – the Bulldogs are the lowest scoring team in the competition and if North come to play, we expect a 10-plus-goal margin.

Suggested bet (best of the round): North Melbourne -39.5 WIN (97-151)

Hawthorn v Sydney (MCG, Saturday, May 11, 7.40pm AEST)

The grand final rematch is every bit as tough to pick as the last time these sides met at the MCG to decide the 2012 premiership. Both sides are unchanged for this game and have 5-1 records but the Swans are travelling a touch better than the Hawks, who will be again without Cyril Rioli while Lance Franklin is way below his best form.

Hawthorn has won four of its past five clashes with Sydney at the MCG – the Swans' Grand Final victory was their first at the venue against any team since late in 2009. Love the line here, 10.5 points looks a gift for a side that hasn’t done much wrong this season.

Suggested bet: Sydney +13.5 LOSE (119-82)

Fremantle v Collingwood (Patersons Stadium, Saturday, May 11, 7.40pm AEST)

This is another tough one for the tipsters as the Magpies make one of their rare trips away from Melbourne to take on the Dockers. Both sides sit at 4-2 with their respective losses coming against Essendon and Hawthorn. Collingwood has dominated this fixture, winning the past four, and possess an incredible interstate record with 14 wins in their past 17 trips.

Nick Maxwell makes a surprise return for the visitors while Ross Lyon will again be without Matthew Pavlich, Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands, although Jon Griffin has been terrific in the ruck and around the ground. Looks like a close one so the line looks appealing.

Suggested bet: Fremantle +6.5 WIN (100-73)

MLB for May 11

Atlanta Braves (21-13) @ Giants (20-15), AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA, Saturday, May 11, 12.15pm

The Atlanta Braves will be without manager Fredi Gonzalez for two games due to family commitments, but giving the ball to Tim Hudson for the first one should soften the blow of his absence. It may also help that the veteran is facing the San Francisco Giants.

Hudson looks to continue his dominance of the Giants as the Braves go for a fifth win in six games. He is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA over his last 10 starts against the Giants, including a win in Game 3 of the 2010 NL division series. The right-hander has also won his last two games at AT&T Park, allowing three runs in 15 2/3 innings.

The Giants, losers of three of four, are hoping Matt Cain (1-2, 5.57) can build on his first win of 2013, by continuing his own success against the Braves. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA over his last five starts against them, including the playoffs. However, Cain’s only loss in that stretch came opposite Hudson in a 3-0 defeat at Atlanta in August 2010.

Suggested bet: Braves WIN (two units @ $2.06) LOSE, game total -6.5 (two units @ $1.95) LOSE (2-8)

Other tips

Indians WIN @ Tigers LOSE (4-10)

Cubs WIN @ Nationals LOSE (3-7)

Brewers WIN @ Reds LOSE (3-4)

Pirates WIN @ Mets WIN (7-3)

Rockies @ Cardinals -7.5 WIN (0-3)

Yankees WIN @ Royals WIN (11-6)

Phillies @ Diamondbacks WIN WIN (2-3)

Orioles WIN @ Twins WIN (9-6)

Rangers -1.5 @ Astros WIN (4-2)

Athletics @ Mariners WIN WIN (3-6)

NHL playoffs for May 11

Eastern Conference quarter-finals, game 6: St Louis Blues @ Los Angeles Kings, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA, Saturday, May 11, 12.10pm (Kings lead 3-2)

Robyn Regehr broke his nose and got a puck in his ear, while captain Dustin Brown merely has a jagged cut on the bridge of his unbroken nose. Other Los Angeles Kings bear their own souvenirs, and several St. Louis Blues are similarly marked up.

After five bruising games of this first-round playoff series, the Kings and Blues are pretty certain they’re hitting each other harder and more often than most NHL clubs. It’s also been a very close series, but the momentum appears with the Kings who should wrap it up here.

St. Louis has failed to record a victory in its last seven trips to Los Angeles and is just 3-13 in the last 16 overall meetings against the Kings. Furthermore, the Blues are 0-4 in their last four games played on the road and 7-15 in their last 22 conference quarter-finals games.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles is an impressive 37-15 in their last 52 played at the Staples Center and 20-8 against Central Division opponents. Additionally, the kings have won 7 of their last 10 games played in the conference quarter-finals.

Suggested bet: Kings WIN (three units @ $1.70) WIN, game total +4.5 (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (1-2)

Other tips

ECQF5: Maple Leafs @ Bruins +5.5 (1-3) LOSE (2-1)

ECQF5: Rangers @ Capitals WIN (2-2) WIN (1-2)

WCQF6: Ducks @ Red Wings +5 (3-2) WIN (3-4)

NBA playoffs for May 11

Western Conference semi-finals, game 3: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors, ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA, Saturday, May 11, 9.05am (series tied 1-1)

The confident aura the Golden State Warriors are giving off right now might be the only thing brighter than those yellow shirts every home fan is expected to be wearing again for Game 3 against the San Antonio Spurs at the ear-piercing Oracle Arena.

The Warriors have outshot, outrebounded and outhustled the Spurs through the first two games of their Western Conference semi-final. And if not for an unprecedented collapse in Game 1, Golden State would be returning to the Bay Area with a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series instead of being tied.

Golden State have held the lead for 95 of 106 minutes, with most of the Spurs' slim advantages coming in the two overtimes in Game 1, when San Antonio rallied from 16 points down in the final four minutes of regulation to a stunning victory. Golden State has outrebounded the Spurs 105 to 93, outshot them 48.3 per cent to 41.7 per cent and outworked – and perhaps outcoached – San Antonio in almost every way imaginable.

The Spurs were 0-2 at Golden State this season, though San Antonio rested most of its starters in one of them. They must take the steam out of the game to have any chance, but even a slower tempo might not be enough against the red-hot Warriors.

Suggested bet: Warriors -2 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -201.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (102-92)

Other tips

ECSF3: Heat -8 WIN @ Bulls +186.5 (1-1) WIN (104-94)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication