Daily tips for May 18

AFL (R8) for May 18

Essendon v Brisbane Lions (Etihad Stadium, Saturday, May 18, 1.45pm)

Steeled by last week’s loss to Geelong, the Bombers look set to inflict further misery on Michael Voss and his struggling Lions. With Paddy Ryder and Brent Stanton returning for this one, Essendon looks too strong all over the park.

Most concerning for the Lions is their lousy form in front of goal – they’ve managed only one score of more than 100 points and have kicked no more than nine goals in two visits to Etihad Stadium this season. The Bombers won the equivalent fixture by 11 goals last year, and should match that margin with ease.

Suggested bet: Essendon -50.5 LOSE (86-96)

Hawthorn v Greater Western Sydney (Aurora Stadium, Launceston, Saturday, May 18, 2.10pm)

AFL punters have had plenty of practise working with huge lines over the past two seasons but we can’t remember one bigger than the 100-point start the Hawks are giving the Greater Western Sydney Giants here. In their only previous meeting, Hawthorn won by a massive 162 points at the MCG last year.

The theory of the better sides resting players against weaker opposition hasn’t really panned out with percentage so important come finals time. Weather conditions look to be fine and cool, leaving the door open for the Hawks to rattle up another massive score against the league newcomers however, the total looks more appealing than the line.

Suggested bet: Game total +211.5 LOSE (140-57)

Gold Coast v Footscray (Metricon Stadium, Saturday, May 18, 4.40pm)

Sometimes the numbers don’t tell the complete story, and this is a classic example. Gold Coast scored a meritorious 10-goal win over Melbourne at the MCG last week and return home to meet a side with an identical record to the Demons.

The Bulldogs have lost their past six since beating the Lions in round one and, since defeating the Suns in the same round last year, Footscray has won just twice. This looms as a statement match for Gold Coast to claim successive victories for the first time, and improve to four wins for the first time in the club’s history.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast -9.5 (two units) WIN (93-61)

Collingwood v Geelong (MCG, Saturday, May 18, 7.40pm)

The latest chapter in one of the great rivalries will be played out on Saturday night when the competition’s only undefeated side takes on a Collingwood side back from Perth after a morale-sapping loss to Freo. Despite winning both games against the Cats last year, the Magpies face an uphill battle here with Dale Thomas, Heath Shaw and Marty Clarke out.

In contrast, Geelong has Joel Corey and Josh Hunt back while their forwards will look forward to feasting on a Collingwood defence under plenty of pressure. Nathan Buckley’s focus during the week has been consistency over four quarters, but even that might not be enough here against a side that continues to impress on a weekly basis.

Suggested bet: Game total -192.5 LOSE (102-96)

Sydney v Fremantle (SCG, Saturday, May 18, 7.40pm)

Somehow Ross Lyon keeps pulling aces from his sleeve despite an injury list to which ruckman Jon Griffin was added last week. It’s testament to Lyon’s coaching skills that the systems are in place to keep his side competitive despite the absence of stars like Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands.

Sydney, with ruckmen Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke expected to dominate, will be smarting after a humbling loss to the Hawks last week but the Dockers have one of the better recent records at the SCG, winning two of its past three at the venue. The past three contests have been decided by less than 14 points.

Suggested bet: Fremantle +18.5 (three units) WIN (70-70)

Racing for May 18

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Scone (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Kembla Grange (NSW), Werribee (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Grafton (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Toowoomba (Qld)

Harness racing: Parkes (NSW), Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Bunbury (WA) 
Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA)

It’s a huge weekend of racing on both the local and international scene. It’s day two of the Scone Cup Carnival, which has stand-alone metro status in NSW and is highlighted by the running of the Darley Dark Jewel Classic and the Inglis 3yo Guineas while it’s Doomben Cup day in Brisbane.

Tomorrow, there’s Group 1 action at Kranji with the Krisflyer International Sprint (featuring Aussie contender Bel Sprinter) and the Singapore Airlines International Cup while Orb will be chasing the second leg of the Triple Crown in the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile at VRC headquarters, they’ll be running on dead (4) despite rain over the past three days. Our focus turns to race 7 and the famous Flemington Straight Six where That’s The One looks mighty hard to beat in this Listed race worth $120,000.

Runner-up to Second Effort in the Wangoom Hcp earlier this month at Warrnambool, this 4yo gelding was just pipped here two runs back behind track specialist General Truce. He’s got a good draw, is well weighted and Glen Boss sticks with him here.

Suggested bet: Flemington R7 #5 That’s The One (one unit WIN @ $3.60, four units PLACE @ $1.62) 3rd ($1.50)

Scone

R1 #1 Mulaqen (win) LOSE (2nd)

R2 #2 Fireball (E/W) 2nd ($2.00)
R4 #9 Omniscient (E/W) 2nd ($2.90)

R5 #5 Fontelina (E/W) 1st ($5.80/$2.10)

R6 #1 Miss Stellabelle (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)

R7 #14 Missy Cummings (win) LOSE (U/P)

R8 #6 Anise (E/W) 2nd ($2.20)

Doomben

R4 #2 Solzhenitsyn (win) 1st ($2.40)

R7 #9 Lights of Heaven (win) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington

R3 #11 Our Cellardoor (E/W) 3rd ($2.20)

R4 #1 Lidari (win) LOSE (U/P)

R5 #5 Another Prelate (E/W) 2nd ($4.20)

R6 #6 Unchain My Heart (E/W) 1st ($6.40/$2.40)

R8 #3 Gail (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R3 #1 Travtiano

Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R9 #1 Coolan Blue

MLB for May 18

Houston Astros (11-30) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (24-17), PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA, Saturday, May 18, 9.05am

Regulars will know that the Astros have been one of our most profitable team so far this season – mostly betting against them at the run-line! That’s our best play of the day once again as Houston, who’ve won barely one-quarter of their games so far this season, take on surprise packets Pittsburgh.

After 51 seasons in the NL, the Astros were shifted to the AL West to balance out the divisions. The results have been similar, though, since they moved, getting off to an 11-30 start (tied with Miami for baseball's worst record) after finishing 56-106 in 2011 and 55-107 last season. They return to an NL park for the first time here.

The Pirates look to get this series started on a positive note with help from starting pitcher Jeanmar Gomez, who has shined since entering the rotation. Gomez (2-0, 2.28) is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three starts. Astros pitcher Jordan Lyles has been largely unimpressive in three big league outings. Lyles (1-1, 8.36 ERA) gave up a career-worst eight runs and 11 hits in four innings of a 12-7 loss to Texas on Sunday.

Suggested bet: Pirates WIN (three units @ $1.55) WIN, Pirates -1.5 (one unit @ $2.18) LOSE (4-5)

Other tips

Rays @ Orioles WIN LOSE (12-10)

Mets @ Cubs -7.5 WIN (3-2)

Mariners @ Indians +8.5 WIN (3-6)

Blue Jays @ Yankees -8.5 WIN (0-5)

Tigers @ Rangers WIN LOSE (2-1)

Diamondbacks WIN @ Marlins WIN (9-2)

Red Sox WIN @ Twins WIN (3-2)

Brewers @ Cardinals -1.5 LOSE (6-7)

Royals @ Athletics WIN WIN (1-2)

NHL playoffs for May 18

Eastern Conference semi-finals, game 2: New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins, CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA, Saturday, May 18, 9.40am (Penguins lead 1-0)

Even as numbers on a roster, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ power play appears intimidating. Start with two NHL MVPs in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Add a future Hall of Famer like Jarome Iginla and a Norris Trophy finalist in defenceman Kris Letang. Throw in a grinder to do the dirty work in Chris Kunitz and the Penguins have a unit that’s an electric mix of skill, speed and grit.

Give them two minutes to work and they can quickly turn a game into a mismatch. It’s a lesson the Ottawa Senators painfully learned during a 4-1 loss to the Penguins in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semi-finals. All power plays, however, are not created equal.

If the Senators want to even the series in Game 2, they have to either stay out of the penalty box entirely or find a way to stop a unit that’s scoring 38 per cent of the time in the playoffs when it goes a man up. The Senators have won just two playoff series in franchise history after dropping the first game, and none since 2003 and have never rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the postseason.

Suggested bet: Penguins WIN (four units @ $1.52) WIN, Penguins -1.5 (one unit @ $2.60) LOSE, game total +5.5 (one unit @ $2.10) WIN (3-4)

Note: no NBA playoff games are scheduled for today

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication