Daily tips for May 31

NRL (R12) for May 31

Bulldogs v Dragons, ANZ Stadium, Friday, May 31, 7.45pm

It’s the first game of a split round in the NRL due to the opening State of Origin game, where two old combatants rekindle their rivalry in a clash that could have considerable ramifications for their ongoing seasons. Canterbury did enough in their win over Brisbane last week to convince most of us that their shock 44-8 loss to Newcastle a fortnight ago was simply an unfortunate blip on the radar. After a horror start to the season, they have begun to rediscover the form that rocketed them to the minor premiership last season and another win this week would likely see them move into the top eight for the first time in 2013.

St George Illawarra, meanwhile, are again at the crossroads after they wasted the strides they made against Parramatta in Round 10 with an insipid performance against Penrith last Saturday night. Apparently the arrival of Josh Dugan hasn’t solved all of their attacking woes just yet and they can’t afford too many performances like last week’s if they are to stay in touch with the top eight. The Dragons have won 12 of their past 16 games played at ANZ Stadium although the Bulldogs also boast a great record at the venue, having conceded an average of just 5.6 points per game in the second half over the past two years! – Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com

Suggested bet: Game total -38 (two units) WIN (16-14)

AFL (R10) for May 3

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, Gabba, Friday, May 31, 7.50pm

Just another quiet week at the Westpac Centre! Collingwood players would have been happy to board the plane for Queensland to escape a week in the headlines that had nothing to do with the players. Both sides have made a swag of changes – Alan Didak makes an unlikely return for the Magpies along side Heath Shaw while the Lions will have made six changes.

This has the smell of a very physical affair similar to the classic meetings between these sides in the early 2000s. Sydney showed how to shut down the Magpie forwards last week; a lesson the Lions will have noted with interest having stifled Carlton in two of the four quarters last week. It looks like a wet night at the Gabba, so we have this pegged as a low scoring affair with the home side also a good chance to cover the hefty line.

Suggested bet: Lions +31.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -178.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (51-100)

Racing for May 31

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Queanbeyan (NSW), Tamworth (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld)

Harness racing: Wagga (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Melton (Vic), Bankstown (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Launceston (Tas)

Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Winnellie Park (NT)

We’re heading abroad for our best bet of the day as the eyes of the global racing family turn to Epsom Downs for tonight’s running of the G1 Investec Oaks. #9 Secret Gesture, a very impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial, could prove the class act in the fillies classic over 2410m. Trainer Ralph Beckett's daughter of Galileo was never out of a canter at the Surrey course, handling the undulations and sharp downhill turn into the straight with ease.

The form of the race is easy to knock – the 10-length second Miss You Too raced very freely – but the manner of Secret Gesture's run mirrored her performance in a maiden at Newbury last October. Aidan O'Brien’s #6 Moth is the main danger but jumps from barrier two – one outside Secret Gesture – so Jim Crowley will be able to gauge her progress closely.

Suggested bet: Epsom Downs R5 #9 Secret Gesture E/W (two units) 2nd ($1.75)

Other tips

Geelong R1 #1 Beau Jez (win) 1st ($1.30)

Geelong R3 #4 Hidden Art (win) LOSE (U/P)

Queanbeyan R7 #1 Astronomer (win) 1st ($2.40)

Sunshine Coast R2 #1 Choose a Saga (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Tamworth R1 #6 Excellent Style (win) 1st ($2.10)

Harness racing tip: Gloucester Park R7 #7 David Hercules (win) 1st ($1.50)

Greyhound racing tip: Geelong R6 #4 Oscar Gucci (win) LOSE (U/P)

MLB for May 31

Houston Astros (16-37) @ Colorado Rockies (28-25), Coors Field, Denver, CO, Friday, May 31, 11.10am

The Colorado Rockies have not fared well at home against AL foes. Not even a visit by that league’s worst team could change that as we discovered to our chagrin yesterday! Colorado will try to avoid a fifth loss in six games here in the series finale against the Houston Astros. After splitting a pair of one-run games in Houston to open this home-and-home set, the Rockies (28-25) were denied an eighth straight home win over the Astros (16-37) on Wednesday, losing 6-3.

Colorado is 14-5 at home against the NL but just 2-5 when hosting AL clubs. The Rockies have dropped 15 of 17 at home in interleague play. The Rockies, though, may have caught a break as they’ll face Lucas Harrell (3-6, 5.43 ERA). The right-hander is 0-4 with an 8.22 ERA in five starts this month after losing his career-high third consecutive start on Saturday. Colorado will counter with Juan Nicasio (4-1, 4.38). The right-hander has been making a strong push to remain in the rotation, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last two starts.

Suggested bet: Rockies -1.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (7-5)

Other tips

Mets @ Yankees WIN LOSE (3-1)

Nationals @ Orioles -9.5 WIN (0-2)

Tigers @ Pirates WIN WIN (0-1)

Reds @ Indians +1.5 WIN (1-7)

Rays @ Marlins -7.5 WIN (5-2)

Dodgers @ Angels WIN WIN (2-3)

Diamondbacks @ Rangers +9.5 WIN (5-9)

White Sox @ Cubs WIN WIN (3-8)

Mariners WIN @ Padres WIN (7-1)

Royals @ Cardinals -1.5 RAIN DELAY

NBA playoffs for May 31

Eastern Conference finals, game 5: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Friday, May 31, 10.30am (series tied 2-2)

The defending NBA champion Heat are certainly being tested in this series. They can’t get enough rebounds, can’t get Dwyane Wade on track, can’t get consistency out of Chris Bosh but those storylines should be written out when they host the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 of a super-competitive Eastern Conference finals that’s now knotted at two games apiece.

History says the Game 5 winner when a series is tied at 2-2 has a colossal upper hand, though that's an axiom that the Heat both proved and disproved last season. When the Heat and Pacers split the first four games of their second-round series last year, Miami rolled to a 115-83 home win in Game 5 and captured the series in six games.

We’re going to have a big swing at the Heat here. Miami is 15-3 this year when coming off a loss. Their 15 wins after losses this year have been by 37, 30, 29, 28, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 10, 5, 3, 3 and 2 points. That's an average winning margin of 16.7 points, while the three losses came back in January. There’s also a strong trend to the ‘over’ game total emerging in this series.

Suggested bet: Heat -7.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +185 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (79-90)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication