Friday 31 May 2013

Daily tips for June 1


Racing for June 1

Horse racing: Sandown (Vic – abandoned), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Broome (WA), Adelaide River (NT), Lismore (NSW – abandoned), Kilmore (Vic – abandoned)
Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Ballarat (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Bunbury (WA) 
Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA)


Soaking rain has already claimed three meetings, with Sandown, Kilmore and Lismore cards already abandoned and wet tracks the order of the day elsewhere. The Victorians may have no live racing today, but a local horse looks very well placed in the $400,000 G1 Queensland Oaks at Eagle Farm, here they will be racing on a slow (7) today.

Trained at Mornington by Pat Carey, #4 Gondokoro appears to be reaching top form at the right time of her campaign. The Zabeel filly has continued to improve this preparation, recent form including a fourth to Norzita in the G1 Vinery Stakes at Rosehill and third behind Royal Descent in the G1 ATC Oaks at Randwick.

Last time out in the Doomben Roses over 2000m, Gondokoro caught the eye with a fast-finishing second behind her main rival here, #1 Dear Demi, going under by a head. There is no doubt with clearer running that Gondokoro would have easily accounted for Dear Demi, the filly being hampered at the start and losing valuable ground at the 1600m.

Suggested bet: Eagle Farm R7 #4 Gondokoro (E/W 1x4) 1st ($5.10/$2.00)

Other tips

Rosehill R1 #6 Relaxed and Happy (win) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R3 #2 Gullible (win) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R4 #2 Nocturnelle (E/W) 2nd ($2.20)
Rosehill R5 #11 Midnight Minx (place) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R8 #14 Index Linked (win) LOSE (3rd)

Eagle Farm R2 #13 Anagold (place) LOSE (U/P)
Eagle Farm R4 #4 Fire Up Fifi (win) 1st ($2.40)
Eagle Farm R5 #4 Bound to Blush (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Eagle Farm R6 #1 Sizzling (E/W) 1st ($4.10/$1.90)

Morphettville R6 #7 Daytona Grey (win) 1st ($2.20)

Belmont R2 #6 Black Magic Miss (E/W) 2nd ($2.30)

Harness racing tip: Globe Derby R4 #3 Major Secret (win) LOSE (2nd)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R1 #5 Black Magic Opal (win) 1st ($1.40)


AFL (R10) for June 1

Adelaide v Fremantle, AAMI Stadium, Saturday, June 1, 1.10pm

The coin-flip game of the round is a rematch of last year’s semi-final, which the Crows pinched by 11 points. Indeed, Adelaide has won seven of the last nine clashes with the Dockers' last win coming in round 3, 2011 at AAMI Stadium. The Crows are unchanged from the side that pinched a stunning win over North last week, while Freo adds Stephen Hill to a side that barely made it out of second gear against Melbourne last week in conceding just six goals. They may be two of the best-coached sides in the competition but, based on their proven defensive capabilities, we have to lean to Lyon over Sanderson here.

Suggested bet: Fremantle WIN (best of the day) WIN, game total -160.5 WIN (59-66)

Carlton v Greater Western Sydney, Etihad Stadium, Saturday, June 1, 1.45pm

The Giants impressed on their most recent visit to the Docklands where they pushed the Bombers to the line. But that form seems an anomaly after three massive losses against Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast. Carlton, with Chris Yarran and Levi Kasboult returning, can’t afford any slip-ups having dragged their record back to 5-4 (and with Essendon to come next week). They won an arm wrestle at the Gabba last week in hardly convincing fashion and still look a yard behind the better sides in the competition. If the Giants can continue to win their share of centre clearances (sixth in the League) and convert accordingly, they’re some chance of covering the line. Prefer to sit and watch this one.

Suggested bet: GWS +84.5 LOSE (148-54)

Sydney v Essendon, SCG, Saturday, June 1, 4.40pm

Despite the contrasting fortunes of these clubs in recent years, this is always a fiercely-contested fixture with the Swans only 11 of 22 games against Essendon at the SCG, while the past four games have been decided by less than 10 points. Throw in the impressive record of both sides this year (fifth and third respectively) and it looms as another tight one. The Bombers are one of the few sides who can match Sydney’s ability to clear the ball quickly and spread from stoppages; an essential skill on the tight SCG. Who knows how the ‘Goodes’ factor will play here but with the edge in attack, the Bombers should cover the surprisingly generous line.

Suggested bet: Essendon +10.5 LOSE (115-71)

Geelong v Gold Coast, Simonds Stadium, Saturday, June 1, 7.40pm

The lights go on for the first time at Simonds Stadium and it’s going to be a heavy track as the Cats host former favourite son Gary Ablett jnr on a historic night for the town. With James Kelly and Nathan Vardy returning and a home record of just one loss in 37 games, the Cats deserve to be red-hot favourites. However, the Suns have made massive strides this year and stayed with Hawthorn for three quarters last week. Gold Coast lost the equivalent fixture by only 14 points at Metricon last year and have plenty of wet weather form under their belt already this season so the line appeals.

Suggested bets: Gold Coast +55.5 WIN, game total -178.5 LOSE (123-71)

Footscray v Port Adelaide, TIO Stadium, Darwin, Saturday, June 1, 7.40pm

It looks like a dry and warm night (high 20s) for this semi-regular fixture between the Bulldogs and Power in Darwin. A month has passed since Port’s last win while Footscray ran over the top of a disappointing St Kilda to bookend their season so far with a second victory. The Bulldogs have dominated Port in recent times too, winning their past six and owning a respectable 75 per cent win rate over eight matches in Darwin. Matthew Boyd’s injury will hurt the Dogs already brittle defence but besieged coach Brendan McCartney uncovered some more avenues to goal last week. Weather is a massive factor at this venue, but dry conditions should help send the game total over.

Suggested bets: Footscray +13.5 WIN, game total -176.5 WIN (67-58)

MLB for June 1

Chicago White Sox (24-27) @ Oakland Athletics (31-24), O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Saturday, June 1, 12.05pm

Trends are crucial when following the fortunes of MLB sides, and here’s a great example of one side on the up and a second on the slide. Despite losing their most recent game, Oakland has the best record in the majors over the last two weeks. They'll try to add to that against a team that’s cooled off from its hot stretch. The A’s will look to earn their 12th win in 14 games Friday night while sending the Chicago White Sox to a fourth consecutive defeat.

Bartolo Colon (5-2, 3.82 ERA) will try to add to Chicago's woes while building on one of his best starts of the season. The right-hander tossed seven scoreless innings and walked none for the seventh time in 10 outings in a 6-2 victory at Houston on Sunday. Colon has a 1.29 ERA in winning his last two starts after going 0-2 with a 7.17 ERA in his previous four.

In this match-up, he'll pitch opposite Dylan Axelrod (3-3, 4.21), who has won three straight starts thanks in large part to some generous support. The right-hander has a 4.32 ERA during the win streak and has gotten 15 runs from his teammates. He received a combined 16 runs in his first seven starts and went 0-3 with a 4.17 ERA. Axelrod has never faced Oakland or any A’s hitter.

Suggested bet: Game total +7.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE, Oakland -1.5 (three units @ $2.18) WIN (0-3)

Other tips

Tigers WIN @ Orioles LOSE (5-7)
Reds WIN @ Phillies WIN (6-0)
Rays @ Indians WIN LOSE (9-2)
Mets WIN @ Marlins LOSE (1-5)
Royals @ Rangers +9 PUSH (2-7)
Mariners WIN @ Twins WIN (3-0)
Giants @ Cardinals WIN POSTPONED
Astros @ Angels +8 WIN (6-3)
Dodgers WIN @ Rockies WIN (7-5)
Diamondbacks @ Cubs WIN WIN (2-7)

Note: no NHL or NBA playoff games are scheduled for today

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

Thursday 30 May 2013

Daily tips for May 31



NRL (R12) for May 31

Bulldogs v Dragons, ANZ Stadium, Friday, May 31, 7.45pm

It’s the first game of a split round in the NRL due to the opening State of Origin game, where two old combatants rekindle their rivalry in a clash that could have considerable ramifications for their ongoing seasons. Canterbury did enough in their win over Brisbane last week to convince most of us that their shock 44-8 loss to Newcastle a fortnight ago was simply an unfortunate blip on the radar. After a horror start to the season, they have begun to rediscover the form that rocketed them to the minor premiership last season and another win this week would likely see them move into the top eight for the first time in 2013.

St George Illawarra, meanwhile, are again at the crossroads after they wasted the strides they made against Parramatta in Round 10 with an insipid performance against Penrith last Saturday night. Apparently the arrival of Josh Dugan hasn’t solved all of their attacking woes just yet and they can’t afford too many performances like last week’s if they are to stay in touch with the top eight. The Dragons have won 12 of their past 16 games played at ANZ Stadium although the Bulldogs also boast a great record at the venue, having conceded an average of just 5.6 points per game in the second half over the past two years! – Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com

Suggested bet: Game total -38 (two units) WIN (16-14)

AFL (R10) for May 3


Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, Gabba, Friday, May 31, 7.50pm

Just another quiet week at the Westpac Centre! Collingwood players would have been happy to board the plane for Queensland to escape a week in the headlines that had nothing to do with the players. Both sides have made a swag of changes – Alan Didak makes an unlikely return for the Magpies along side Heath Shaw while the Lions will have made six changes.

This has the smell of a very physical affair similar to the classic meetings between these sides in the early 2000s. Sydney showed how to shut down the Magpie forwards last week; a lesson the Lions will have noted with interest having stifled Carlton in two of the four quarters last week. It looks like a wet night at the Gabba, so we have this pegged as a low scoring affair with the home side also a good chance to cover the hefty line.

Suggested bet: Lions +31.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -178.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (51-100)

Racing for May 31

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Queanbeyan (NSW), Tamworth (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld)
Harness racing: Wagga (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Melton (Vic), Bankstown (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Launceston (Tas)
Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Winnellie Park (NT)

We’re heading abroad for our best bet of the day as the eyes of the global racing family turn to Epsom Downs for tonight’s running of the G1 Investec Oaks. #9 Secret Gesture, a very impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial, could prove the class act in the fillies classic over 2410m. Trainer Ralph Beckett's daughter of Galileo was never out of a canter at the Surrey course, handling the undulations and sharp downhill turn into the straight with ease.

The form of the race is easy to knock – the 10-length second Miss You Too raced very freely – but the manner of Secret Gesture's run mirrored her performance in a maiden at Newbury last October. Aidan O'Brien’s #6 Moth is the main danger but jumps from barrier two – one outside Secret Gesture – so Jim Crowley will be able to gauge her progress closely.

Suggested bet: Epsom Downs R5 #9 Secret Gesture E/W (two units) 2nd ($1.75)

Other tips

Geelong R1 #1 Beau Jez (win) 1st ($1.30)
Geelong R3 #4 Hidden Art (win) LOSE (U/P)
Queanbeyan R7 #1 Astronomer (win) 1st ($2.40)
Sunshine Coast R2 #1 Choose a Saga (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Tamworth R1 #6 Excellent Style (win) 1st ($2.10)

Harness racing tip: Gloucester Park R7 #7 David Hercules (win) 1st ($1.50)
Greyhound racing tip: Geelong R6 #4 Oscar Gucci (win) LOSE (U/P)

MLB for May 31

Houston Astros (16-37) @ Colorado Rockies (28-25), Coors Field, Denver, CO, Friday, May 31, 11.10am

The Colorado Rockies have not fared well at home against AL foes. Not even a visit by that league’s worst team could change that as we discovered to our chagrin yesterday! Colorado will try to avoid a fifth loss in six games here in the series finale against the Houston Astros. After splitting a pair of one-run games in Houston to open this home-and-home set, the Rockies (28-25) were denied an eighth straight home win over the Astros (16-37) on Wednesday, losing 6-3.

Colorado is 14-5 at home against the NL but just 2-5 when hosting AL clubs. The Rockies have dropped 15 of 17 at home in interleague play. The Rockies, though, may have caught a break as they’ll face Lucas Harrell (3-6, 5.43 ERA). The right-hander is 0-4 with an 8.22 ERA in five starts this month after losing his career-high third consecutive start on Saturday. Colorado will counter with Juan Nicasio (4-1, 4.38). The right-hander has been making a strong push to remain in the rotation, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last two starts.

Suggested bet: Rockies -1.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (7-5)

Other tips

Mets @ Yankees WIN LOSE (3-1)
Nationals @ Orioles -9.5 WIN (0-2)
Tigers @ Pirates WIN WIN (0-1)
Reds @ Indians +1.5 WIN (1-7)
Rays @ Marlins -7.5 WIN (5-2)
Dodgers @ Angels WIN WIN (2-3)
Diamondbacks @ Rangers +9.5 WIN (5-9)
White Sox @ Cubs WIN WIN (3-8)
Mariners WIN @ Padres WIN (7-1)
Royals @ Cardinals -1.5 RAIN DELAY

NBA playoffs for May 31

Eastern Conference finals, game 5: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL, Friday, May 31, 10.30am (series tied 2-2)

The defending NBA champion Heat are certainly being tested in this series. They can’t get enough rebounds, can’t get Dwyane Wade on track, can’t get consistency out of Chris Bosh but those storylines should be written out when they host the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 of a super-competitive Eastern Conference finals that’s now knotted at two games apiece.

History says the Game 5 winner when a series is tied at 2-2 has a colossal upper hand, though that's an axiom that the Heat both proved and disproved last season. When the Heat and Pacers split the first four games of their second-round series last year, Miami rolled to a 115-83 home win in Game 5 and captured the series in six games.

We’re going to have a big swing at the Heat here. Miami is 15-3 this year when coming off a loss. Their 15 wins after losses this year have been by 37, 30, 29, 28, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 10, 5, 3, 3 and 2 points. That's an average winning margin of 16.7 points, while the three losses came back in January. There’s also a strong trend to the ‘over’ game total emerging in this series.

Suggested bet: Heat -7.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +185 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (79-90)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

Monday 27 May 2013

Daily tips for May 30



Racing for May 30

Horse racing: Sale (Vic), Kembla Grange (NSW), Penola (SA), Rockhampton (Qld), Northam (WA)
Harness racing: Hamilton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Shepparton (Vic), Penrith (NSW), Wagin (WA) 
Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Hobart (Tas), Dapto (NSW), Mandurah (WA)

First up, an update on the Sale meeting – new race times have been announced due a diesel spill on the Princes Highway just east of Pakenham resulting in long delays. Race 1 will be now be run at noon; Race (2) 12.33; Race (3) 1.02; Race (4) 1.37; Race (5) 2.11; Race (6) 2.42; Race (7) 3.12; Race (8) 3.42 and Race 9 at 4.16pm. A dead (5) awaits when the meeting kicks-off, and we have a nice omen tip in the fourth (the Eastcoast Plumbtec Traralgon Maiden Plate over 1013m) that looks hard to beat.

It’s climbing season in the Himalayas where the name Pemba Nepali (#9) is quite common. In this case, she’s a lightly raced 4yo mare out of the Noonan stable with Jake Noonan taking the ride here for father Tony. Untried in better than slow ground, she’s placed three times in five starts including a last-start second on her home track at Mornington. The Peter Moody-trained #11 Midnight Rule looks the logical quinella runner.

Suggested bet: Sale R4 #9 Pemba Nepali E/W (two units) 2nd $1.40, boxed exacta 9-11 (two units) LOSE

Other tips

Sale R6 #6 Orange Muscat (win) LOSE (U/P)
Kembla Grange R4 #1 Tenacitus (E/W) 3rd $1.80
Kembla Grange R8 #3 Wimpole Street (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Rockhampton R2 #1 Cannyclimb (win) 1st ($3.40)

Harness racing tip: Shepparton R8 #1 Miss Polly Potts (win) LOSE (U/P)
Greyhound racing tip: Maitland R7 #1 Avondale Porsche (win) 1st ($1.30)

MLB for May 30

Kansas City Royals (21-28) @ St Louis Cardinals (34-17), Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MS, Thursday, May 30, 10.15am

The I-70 series has been one-sided of late, in part due to Carlos Beltran’s solid performances against his former team. He’ll look to help the St Louis Cardinals win a sixth straight meeting while sending the visiting Kansas City Royals to an eighth consecutive defeat. He didn't face the Royals until signing with St. Louis prior to last season, but he's hitting .361 with two homers and 11 RBIs.

Kansas City may be happy to hit the road even if it’s not all that far away, as Tuesday's defeat tied the franchise record of 10 straight home losses set last season. The Royals (21-28) have been outscored 35-13 during their seven-game losing streak and mustered only two hits in the latest defeat.

The Royals will look to get their offence going against Lance Lynn (7-1, 2.95 ERA) who has posted a 5.25 ERA while walking seven over his previous two starts. He bounced back and scattered two hits while striking out nine in six innings of a 7-0 win over the Dodgers on Friday. Lynn will be opposed by Luis Mendoza (1-2, 5.05), who walked a season-worst four but gave up only one run in five innings of Kansas City’s 5-2 loss to the Angels on Friday.

Suggested bet: Cardinals -1.5 (three units @ $2.18) WIN, game total +8 (one unit @ $1.91) PUSH (3-5)

Other tips

Nationals WIN @ Orioles LOSE (6-9)
White Sox @ Cubs WIN WIN (3-9)
Mets WIN @ Yankees WIN (9-4)
Diamondbacks @ Rangers +9 POSTPONED
Blue Jays @ Braves WIN LOSE (3-0)
Rays WIN @ Marlins WIN (3-1)
Dodgers @ Angels +8 LOSE (3-4)
Astros @ Rockies -1.5 LOSE (6-3)
Athletics WIN @ Giants WIN (9-6)

NHL playoffs for May 30

Western Conference semi-final, game 7: Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks, United Center, Chicago, IL, Thursday, May 30, 10.10am (series tied 3-3)

The 2013 NHL playoffs have already served up some classics, and this looms as another spot for the highlight reel. One night after The Rolling Stones rocked the United Center, the Blackhawks will be hoping to channel some Start Me Up to earn some Satisfaction on the way to a remarkable series win.

It all began with a convincing victory for the Blackhawks. Then Jimmy Howard and the Red Wings controlled the action for three straight games, pushing the NHL’s top-seeded team to the brink of elimination. Then there was the response from Chicago, which found its offence in time to take two in a row and grab at least one more home date.

The tide looks to be flowing in Chicago’s direction. Detroit’s skipper Henrik Zetterberg hasn’t scored a goal in this series while Pavel Datsyuk has only two points. Jonathan Toews bounced back strongly for the Blackhawks in Games 5 and 6 while Patrick Sharp, Marion Hossa and Bryan Bickell have all been boosted their output and Corey Crawford has been superb in goal. The price is short, but we have to go with the home side here.

Suggested bet: Blackhawks WIN (2.5 units @ $1.52) WIN, game total +5 (1.5 units @ $2.10) LOSE (1-2)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

Sunday 26 May 2013

Daily tips for May 27



Racing for May 27

Horse racing: Benalla (Vic), Muswellbrook (NSW), Narromine (NSW), Nowra (NSW)
Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Newcastle (NSW), Pinjarra (WA), Warragul (Vic) 
Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Bathurst (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Cranbourne (Vic), Launceston (Tas), Northam (WA), Shepparton (Vic)

A new racing week kicks-off with a modest line-up of meetings with our focus on the Victorian provincial card at Benalla, about two hours north-east of Melbourne. Weather looks fine for the 10-race meeting on a dead (5) with our best of the day scheduled to jump in seventh – the L&S Adams Freight Service Hcp over 2046m for 0-58 rated runners.

The record of #1 Ferocious Fire from the Colin Little stable at Caulfield is slightly misleading. The 5yo gelding has had two runs back from a spell but both in stronger company than this. He saluted over 2100m at Geelong during his last campaign to break his maiden. Daniel Stackhouse carries 60kg from barrier 14, but he looks hard to beat.

Other tips

Benalla R8 #5 First Course (E/W) 2nd ($1.40)
Muswellbrook R2 #3 Akamas (win) 1st ($2.60)
Narromine R5 #4 Zarhron (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Warragul R5 #1 Astronaut (win) 1st ($2.50)
Greyhound racing tip: Bulli R5 #3 Cawbourne Rocka (win)

MLB for May 27

Atlanta Braves (30-18) @ New York Mets (17-29), Citi Field, New York, NY, Monday, May 27, 10.05am

While the Atlanta Braves continue to roll, the New York Mets remain in a free fall. The Braves can win nine in a row by handing the Mets a ninth consecutive home loss Sunday night. Things proved doubly delightful Saturday for Atlanta (30-18) after it won the conclusion of Friday's suspended game 7-5 in 10 innings, then rolled to a 6-0 victory over New York in the regularly scheduled contest.

The Braves, who won 10 straight from April 5-16, have outscored their last eight opponents 47-21. Atlanta has won 15 of 18 over the Mets (17-29), including five straight and seven of eight at Citi Field. New York is 0-5 on an eight-game home stand and in the midst of its longest slide in Queens since it dropped nine straight September 7-20.

After starting a winless loser in Dillon Gee in yesterday’s match-up, the Mets start Shawn Marcum (0-5, 5.69) who has also yet to win a game this year as we’re coming up on the month of June. Atlanta starts right-hander Julio Teheran who has pitched five consecutive quality outings. In his last 33 2/3 innings, he’s given up just nine earned runs and has pinpoint control, walking only two batters in that amount of time.

Suggested bet: Braves WIN (four units @ $1.77) LOSE (2-4)

Other tips

Orioles @ Blue Jays +10 WIN (5-6)
Cubs @ Reds WIN LOSE (5-4)
Marlins @ White Sox WIN WIN (3-5)
Twins @ Tigers WIN WIN (1-6)
Phillies @ Nationals WIN WIN (1-6)
Yankees @ Rays +7 WIN (3-8)
Pirates @ Brewers WIN LOSE (5-4)
Angels WIN @ Royals WIN (5-2)
Cardinals @ Dodgers -6.5 LOSE (5-3)
Athletics -1.5 @ Astros WIN (6-2)

NHL playoffs for May 27

Western Conference semi-final, game 4: Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA, Monday, May 27, 10.05pm (Kings lead series 3-2)

Joe Thornton and the San Jose Sharks aren't exactly sure why home teams have been winning games in the NHL playoffs at a clip not seen in more than three decades. They just hope that trend continues for Game 6 when they look to stave off elimination against the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings and force a decisive seventh game.

The home team has won all five games of this series so far with the Kings holding a 3-2 edge. In fact, the home team has won all nine games between the teams this year, including the regular season. Through Friday’s games, home teams have won 45 of 65 games this post-season for a .692 winning percentage.

However, the momentum is with the Kings, who are coming off a stellar effort in Game 5 where they again shut out the Sharks out. The Kings have dominated the three games played in LA and they’ve been close in the two games in San Jose. The Kings have outscored the Sharks 9-3 in the three games at Staples Center while the Sharks have won by equal 2-1 margins in the two games in San Jose.

Suggested bet: Kings WIN (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE, game total -5 (three units @ $1.60) WIN (1-2)

NBA playoffs for May 27

Eastern Conference final, game 3: Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, Monday, May 27, 10.30am

Over the first two games of these Eastern Conference finals in Miami, it was Indiana that primarily had control, never allowing the reigning NBA champions to hold anything more than a five-point lead. The Pacers got a split for their efforts, and now head home to Indianapolis for Game 3, knowing that they’ve already taken a huge step toward pulling off what would undoubtedly be called a huge upset.

Indiana is 6-0 at home in these playoffs, winning by an average of 14 points. The Heat are 4-0 on the road this post-season, also winning those games by an average of 14 points, and 4-1 straight up and against the spread when revenging a home loss versus an opponent since the start of the regular season, with the UNDER going 4-1 in that situation. Something's going to give here.

Four-time NBA MVP LeBron James led all scorers with 36 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t enough. James has been known to raise his level of play in hostile environments this time of year, which has led directly to Miami winning 14 games on the road in the playoffs since he arrived in South Beach. But if the Heat are to win this series, they’ll need more production from Ray Allen, Norris Cole, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier who are just 6-37 from the field through the first two games.

Suggested bet: Game total -181.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, Heat -1 (two units @$1.91) WIN (114-96)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication

Saturday 25 May 2013

Daily tips for May 26




Motor racing for May 26

It’s one of the great nights on the motorsport calendar with three iconic events over the next 12 hours – the F1 Monaco Grand Prix, the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca Cola 600; the longest race on the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule.


• Let’s start with the Coca Cola 600 in Charlotte, the home base for the vast majority of the teams. Five-time champion Jimmie Johnson owns a superb record on this 1.5-mile superspeedway, but it’s hard to ignore the recent record of Kyle Busch in the #18 JGR Toyota. He’s completely dominating the second tier Nationwide Series (including today’s race at Charlotte) and has won twice in the Sprint Cup this season.  Busch has never won a Sprint Cup point race at Charlotte but appears to be way overdue after finishing in the top five in five of his last six races here.

• Next to the iconic Monaco GP, where the sport's tyre supplier, Pirelli, will no doubt be relieved that attention now will be switched away from their rubber because the pace of the competitors around the streets of Monte Carlo will be determined primarily by the cars' agility, slow-corner handling and low-speed traction rather than the limits of the tyres as defined by each chassis. For something a bit different, we’re going with more than 16.5 cars to finish the race. Four cars were wiped out on the first lap in 2012 so if the field can avoid too much carnage, this should be a reasonably safe bet.

• Finally to Indy, where the 97th running of the world’s most famous 500-mile open-wheel race will feature two Aussies – Will Power and Ryan Briscoe. However, the story of the month has been the form of rookie Carlos Munoz. The Andretti Autosport Chevrolets look to be back on the pace after a few lean years at Indy, and the young Colombian has been flying. He’ll start from the centre of the front row but his rookie status means he’s priced at $34. Yes please.

Suggested bets

NASCAR Charlotte – Kyle Busch WIN (0.5 units @ $6.50) LOSE (DNF)
Monaco GP – over 16.5 Classified Drivers (two units @ $1.71) LOSE (15)
Indianapolis 500 – Carlos Munoz E/W (0.25 units WIN, one unit PODIUM) 2nd ($8.20)

Racing for May 26

Horse racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Nowra (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA), Casterton (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Devonport (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT)
Harness racing: Cootamundra (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Terang (Vic), Hobart (Tas)
Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Nowra (NSW), Gawler (SA), Sandown Park (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Sale (Vic), Healesville (Vic)

The racing spotlight is definitely abroad today, with the running of the G1 Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup at Sha Tin (Hong Kong), Craig Williams takes the ride on Codino in the Tokyo Yushun while the Tattersalls Gold Cup and Etihad Airways 1000 Guineas highlight the meeting at the Curragh in Ireland.

Pioneer Park in Alice Springs is about as far away from the international racing arena, but that’s where our best of the day comes up in the Unibet 0-64 Hcp over 1100m (race 3). #6 Northern Showers is trained by Kath North in the Alice, and is a last start winner over 1000m at Tennant Creek. The 5yo gelding also won here last month and looks well placed from barrier 4.

Suggested bet: Alice Springs R3 #6 Northern Showers E/W (two units) 1st ($2.70/$1.40)

Other tips

Cranbourne R2 #3 Badged (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Cranbourne R12 #5 Il Migliore (E/W) 1st ($8.80/$2.90)
Wyong R7 #7 Bilko (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Sunshine Coast R7 #12 Stolen Kisses (win) LOSE (2nd)

Harness racing tip: Terang R3 #1 Flaxton Filly (win) 1st ($1.30)
Greyhound racing tip: Healesville R11 #1 Dr Gee Gee (win) LOSE (2nd)

AFL (R9) for May 26

Hawthorn v Gold Coast, MCG, Sunday, May 26, 1.10pm

Since dropping the season opener to Geelong, the Hawks are seven without loss and that will surely improve to eight when they host the vastly improved Gold Coast on Sunday. The Suns are coming off back-to-back wins for the first time and head back to the venue at which they humbled Melbourne two weeks ago, minus injured duo Harley Bennell and Zac Smith. The Hawks barely made it out of third gear against GWS in Launceston last week in a surprisingly competitive contest belied by the scoreboard. In their three meetings so far, the biggest margin has been 71 points so the line holds significant appeal here.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast +67.5 WIN, game total +196.5 WIN (118-92)

North Melbourne v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, Sunday, May 26, 3.20pm

With a little luck, the Roos would be 6-2 including the scalps of Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast. Instead, the record shows losses to those three sides by less than a goal but the draw now opens up to leave North with some hope of making the eight. But that charge must here against an Adelaide side that is earning a reputation as one of the better defensive outfits in the competition after conceding just 13 goals in the past two weeks. Both sides are unchanged here for a fixture that has been “horses for courses” in the past five. The market looks about right with only the smallest lean to North at the line.

Suggested bet: North Melbourne -14.5 LOSE, game total +194.5 WIN (124-125)

Fremantle v Melbourne, Patersons Stadium, Sunday, May 26, 4.40pm

Still not sure how they managed it, but Freo left Sydney with a draw last week after trailing by more than four goals in the final quarter of a low scoring affair. Somehow Ross Lyon is keeping his side buoyant in the face of a long injury list (with Michael Walters added) and things get much easier here for the battered and bruised Dockers. Melbourne showed plenty of fight for three quarters against the Tigers but the core problems that have beset the Demons – starting with the coach – remain. They haven’t won in Perth for a decade, losing 13 straight. The margin here will only be decided by Lyon’s management of his limited player resources.

Suggested bet: Fremantle -62.5 WIN, game total -170.5 WIN (130-40)

MLB for May 26

Oakland Athletics (26-23) @ Houston Astros (14-34), Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX, Sunday, May 26, 9.15am

A late home run by Houston native Chris Young helped the Oakland Athletics continue their winning streak against the Astros yesterday. A.J. Griffin will try to extend that run to 10 when Oakland also goes for a seventh consecutive victory at Houston. Oakland (26-23) opened this series with a 6-5 victory Friday. Young's three-run homer in the ninth inning was the difference as the A's improved to 12-1 all-time against the newest member of the AL. Oakland, winner of six of seven overall, is undefeated against Houston (14-34) since a 5-4, 11-inning road loss June 12, 2007.

The Astros continue their eight-game home stand with Lucas Harrell (3-5, 4.63) going for his first win in five starts. Houston has lost the right-hander's last four outings, though he gave up one run in seven innings of a 1-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Harrell, who allowed a homer to Pedro Alvarez, hadn’t gotten past the fifth in four outings. He wasn’t nearly that good in a 9-3 home loss to Oakland on April 7, giving up eight runs, allowing three homers and walking five in 4 1/3 innings.

Suggested bet: Athletics -1.5 (three units @ $2.00) WIN (11-5)

Other tips

Orioles @ Blue Jays +9 WIN (6-5)
Rockies WIN @ Giants LOSE (5-6)
Marlins @ White Sox -7 WIN (1-2)
Twins @ Tigers WIN LOSE (3-2)
Indians @ Red Sox WIN WIN (4-7)
Yankees @ Rays -7.5 WIN (4-3)
Pirates WIN @ Brewers WIN (5-2)
Angels WIN @ Royals WIN (7-0)
Cardinals WIN @ Dodgers LOSE (3-5)
Padres @ Diamondbacks -9 LOSE (10-4)

NHL playoffs for May 26

Western Conference semi-final, game 4: Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings, United Center, Chicago, IL, Sunday, May 26, 10.10am (Red Wings lead series 3-1)

It’s quite the change from the end of the regular season, when the Red Wings won their last four games to secure a spot in the post-season. Then they were down 3-2 in the first round against Anaheim before taking the last two, including a road victory in Game 7. Now they’re in control against the top-seeded Blackhawks, and eager to deliver a knockout blow.

The upstart Red Wings have completely blanketed Chicago – Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa combined for three shots in Game 4. Patrick Sharp got off to a great start in the postseason, but is without a point in the past two games. The few times Chicago’s stars have managed to wriggle free, Jimmy Howard has been right there. The 29-year-old goalie has stopped 86 of 88 shots over the past three games for a sparkling .977 save percentage.

Only 24 teams have come back to win a best-of-seven NHL playoff series after dropping three of the first four games. That’s out of 265 opportunities, or 9.1 per cent. Tampa Bay was the last team to accomplish the feat in 2011. The Blackhawks faced a similar situation when they lost the first three games of a playoff series against Vancouver two years ago. They managed to force a Game 7 and lost 2-1 in overtime.

Suggested bet: Red Wings WIN LOSE (one unit @ $2.50), game total -5 (three units @ $1.83) WIN (1-3)

Other tips

ECSF5: Rangers WIN LOSE @ Bruins -5 PUSH (1-4)

NBA playoffs for May 26

Western Conference finals, game 3: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies, FedExForum, Memphis, TN, Sunday, May 26, 11.05am (Spurs lead 2-0)

The Grizzlies are down 0-2 to San Antonio in their first Western Conference final, but they take heart in knowing they dug themselves out of a 0-2 hole in the first round against the Clippers. No NBA team has won separate series in the same post-season after losing the first two games but Memphis return to the arena they call the ‘Grindhouse’ where they set a franchise record winning 32 games there this season, and they are 19-1 here since February 8. Memphis has lost three straight only twice this season, the last in mid-January.

The home team has won 17 of the last 20 games between these teams, and the Spurs lost both trips to Memphis during the regular season. With strong memories of blowing a 2-0 lead to Oklahoma City in the Western finals, the Spurs know the games in Memphis will be hard. It would be tough for the Grizzlies to shoot much worse than they did in the first two games in San Antonio, including a stretch where they missed seven straight layups in one sequence. They also missed 15 of 18 attempts inside 5 feet in the first half.

Suggested bet: Grizzlies -5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -180 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (86-86)

* Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication