Daily tips for August 10

NRL (round 22) for August 10

Cronulla Sharks (11-8) v Newcastle Knights (9-1-9), Ramondis Stadium, Saturday, August 10, 7.30pm

When Cronulla and Newcastle look back on season 2013, this could be the game that makes or breaks their respective seasons. Cronulla continue to perform well despite the ongoing ASADA dramas – and, sitting on 26 competition points, the squad still believe they’re in the hunt for a top-four finals position. The Sharks have won 11 of their 19 matches this season, including recent triumphs against the Warriors in New Zealand last week (18-14) and the Panthers a fortnight ago (38-10). They have, however, won just three matches against the other teams currently sitting in the top eight. The Sharks have named the same 17 that defeated the Warriors for this week’s crucial clash. Influential back-rowers Luke Lewis and Anthony Tupou remain on the injured list, although insiders tell NRL.com Tupou, in particular, could be a late inclusion.

The Knights, meanwhile, find themselves walking the finals tightrope – on 23 points they’re outright eighth but a loss would see them slip out of the finals cut-off if the Titans upset the Bulldogs or the Warriors surprise the Sea Eagles. Newcastle’s squad is slowly beginning to rectify a wretched middle-season period where they won just one of seven matches. Since Round 16, however, they’ve lost just one game, avoiding adding to that tally by claiming a point in last week’s 18-all draw with the Broncos in Newcastle. The Knights, meanwhile, welcome back Kade Snowden from suspension as well as James McManus from a back injury. Beau Scott, however, hasn't been named as he continues to recover from a foot injury. Danny Buderus is set to play in his 250th game for the club, surpassing Andrew Johns, who played 249 games for Newcastle. (Preview with thanks to NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Cronulla -4.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (14-18)

AFL (round 20) for August 10

Place a bet on the “head to head” market in the Sydney v Collingwood match and if your team score 75 points or more but lose our sports betting partner Centrebet will refund your first bet up to $100 cash!

Richmond (12-6) v Brisbane Lions (8-10) MCG, Saturday, August 10, 1.45pm AEST

It’s been four years since the Lions last tasted success against Richmond, and that record is unlikely to change here as the finals bound Tigers host Brisbane to a cold and wet MCG. The Lions appear to have fallen into a pattern with which Tiger fans will be familiar – winning games (four of their past five) when the pressure of chasing a finals spot has passed. This looks beyond Michael Voss’ side. They’ve struggled for a consistent forward presence all season with the loss of Jonathan Brown only compounding their problems while two wins in 10 starts at the MCG is hardly encouraging. Richmond was terrific against the Hawks last week but I’m slightly wary of the Tigers’ up and down form since the bye. However, they’re mighty tough to toss at the ‘G’ and it’s hard to imagine Brisbane kicking a score that threatens the Tigers here.

Suggested bet: Game total -188.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (97-74)

Geelong (14-4) v Port Adelaide (11-7) Simonds Stadium, Saturday, August 10, 2.10pm AEST

We’re 20 rounds into the season and still the majority of ‘experts’ remain skeptical about the credentials of Port Adelaide. To understand the revolution underway at Alberton under Ken Hinkley, you have to look beyond the raw numbers. Last week’s Showdown provided a perfect summation of the Power’s 2013 campaign – regardless of the circumstances, they find a way to win. The Cats have won the past eight against Port stretching back to the 2007 Grand Final. Five of those win came at Kardinia Park, while Geelong also cruised to an eight-goal win at AAMI Stadium back in round 9 this year. The stats just don’t reflect any tapering in Geelong’s form ahead of the finals – instead, I have Chris Scott’s side in a mini-slump. With wet conditions likely for this match, the line on offer is extraordinarily generous and the best on offer for the round.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide +42.5 (three units @ $1.91, best of the round) WIN (129-104)

Carlton (9-9) v Footscray (5-13) Etihad Stadium, Saturday, August 10, 4.40pm AEST

It was at a similar point of the 2012 season that Carlton headed to the Gold Coast with everything on the line and lost. That result will be foremost in the minds of Mick Malthouse and his players as they host the Bulldogs at Etihad. Pardon the pun, but the Blues face a real dogfight here to stay in the finals hunt. The Bulldogs have certainly improved their attack on the ball but their key numbers haven’t improved much and, like Brisbane, they’re benefitting from games against sides that have pretty much put up the white flag for 2013. Robbie Warnock replaces the injured Matthew Kreuzer for the battle against bruiser Will Minson, but the key change here is the return of Jarrad Waite. The Bulldogs will hope attack is the best form of defence but Carlton will have too many forward options for the Footscray defence to counter.

Suggested bet: Carlton -18.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -198.5 (two units @ $1.90) LOSE (89-117)

Sydney (14-1-3) v Collingwood (12-6), ANZ Stadium, Saturday, August 10, 7.40pm AEST

This has been a fascinating fixture over recent years and we have an intriguing set of data for a venue that, despite being in Sydney’s backyard, basically plays as neutral territory. The Swans’ preliminary final victory over Collingwood last year was their first over the Pies at ANZ Stadium in six starts and 11 games overall. They’re also reversed a horror stretch at Homebush for a run of six wins in their past eight. Many experts have quickly jumped back on the Collingwood bandwagon after their thumping of Essendon last week but, despite the promising signs surrounding players like Dayne Beams and Quinten Lynch, I’m not yet convinced. The Swans have somehow nursed a staggering injury list through the bulk of 2013 and remain a legitimate premiership threat. They’ll win here, with the Magpies a decent chance of covering the line, but the ‘under’ game total looks far more appealing.

Suggested bet: Collingwood WIN (using Centrebet promotion @ $2.90) WIN, game total -181.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (71-100)

Gold Coast (6-12) v Melbourne (2-16) Metricon Stadium, Saturday, August 10, 7.40pm AEST

Having endured years of misery as a Richmond supporter, I have genuine empathy for Melbourne fans. Winless GWS rarely looked in danger of defeat last week and the Demons stay on the road for a second week to face a Gold Coast side that pushed West Coast to the wire in the west. At least the Melbourne players will be able to enjoy the Gold Coast sunshine for a couple of days! Meanwhile the Suns look to enjoy a day out to celebrate Gary Ablett jnr’s 250th game. With Tom Nicholls a chance to play, Guy McKenna will field one of his strongest sides of the season and the Suns will fancy their chances of putting Melbourne to the sword after their 10-goal win at the MCG in round 7. The Demons will win their fair share of the footy around the stoppages but they’ve not been able to convert that possession into scoring opportunities all season.

Suggested bet: Gold Coast -40.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (90-77)

Racing for August 10

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Newcastle (NSW), Murtoa (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Kempsey (NSW), Cairns (Qld), Carnarvon (WA). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Ballarat (Vic), Bunbury (WA), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW), Parkes (NSW). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA).

 

The racing industry and general public have united in their outpouring of emotion for Darwin jockey Simone Montgomerie (pictured above), who died after a tragic race fall during Monday's Darwin Cup meeting. The Darwin Turf Club has officially abandoned the 2013 running of the race, with the $200,000 prizemoney donated to 'The Montgomerie Fund', established by the club to provide support for the rider’s young family, including her five-year-old daughter Kodah. Tabcorp along with the NSW and Victorian racing industries have announced they will be donating profits from wagering on the opening races at Flemington and Randwick today, appropriately named the Simone Montgomerie Tribute. Meanwhile the Brisbane Racing Club and Queensland Jockeys Association will sell raffle tickets over the next two Saturdays for the chance to win naming rights to a race at Eagle Farm on August 24. At Canterbury on Wednesday, jockey Tommy Berry donated all his riding fees and win percentages, while a set of silks were also signed by every hoop at the Sydney meeting.

• Contributions can be made to The Montgomerie Fund, via Westpac Bank; BSB Number 035-302; Account Number 418752.

Daily tips

Flemington R1 #12 Baron Douro (place) LOSE (4th)

Flemington R2 #2 Great Esteem (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.60)

Flemington R3 #1 Friday Hussy (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R4 #1 Chiarmonte (E/W) 2nd ($2.70)

Flemington R5 #13 Stereosonic (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Flemington R6 #3 Magnifique Soleil (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Flemington R8 #9 Supremacy (E/W) 1st ($13.60/$3.00)

Flemington R9 #1 Means A Lot (E/W) 3rd ($2.70)

Randwick R1 #1 Streaking Comet (win) 1st ($1.70)

Randwick R3 #5 Lilliburlero (win) LOSE (4th)

Randwick R4 #6 Field Marshall (E/W) 1st ($3.80/$1.80)

Randwick R5 #2 Rain Affair (win) 1st ($1.40)

Randwick R7 #10 Let’s Be A Star (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R8 #1 Eigelstein (win) LOSE (2nd)

Eagle Farm R1 #1 Adebisi (win) LOSE (3rd)

Eagle Farm R2 #10 Flying Home (win) 1st ($1.90)

Eagle Farm R3 #1 Vintage Moss (win) 1st ($2.30)

Morphettville R2 #1 Amiconi Originale (win) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R4 #1 Splash of Moet (E/W) 3rd ($1.80)

Morphettville R5 #7 Quick Snitzel (win) LOSE (3rd)

Morphettville R6 #8 Nearest The Pin (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.80/$1.30)

Morphettville R7 #9 Draw Forward (E/W) SCRATCHED

Belmont R2 #3 Uncle George (win) 1st ($2.80)

Belmont R7 #4 Settle Strada (win) 1st ($2.40)

Harness racing tip: Ballarat R5 #1 Our Sky Major (win) 1st ($1.80)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R7 #1 Destini Fireball (win) LOSE (3rd)

CFL (week 7) for August 10

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-0) @ Calgary Stampeders (4-1), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Saturday, August 10, 11.05am

The Saskatchewan Roughriders and Calgary Stampeders entered their bye week riding big winning streaks. Saskatchewan has not lost a game, outscoring its opponents by 96 points over the first five weeks, while the Stampeders’ only blemish came in a road loss to the Roughriders in Week 2. Calgary quarterback Drew Tate has not played since injuring his right forearm in that 36-21 setback, but will play here.

Tate threw five touchdowns and one interception in his two starts before being injured, completing 38-of-52 passes. Slotbacks Nik Lewis (285 yards) and Marquay McDaniel (211) have been the preferred targets for Calgary pivots, who have combined to run the second-most effective offence in the league, next to Saskatchewan. Defensive lineman Charleston Hughes, who leads the team with four sacks and has 40 in his career, will return to the line-up after missing time because of a wrist injury.

Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant will also return after missing one game with a sore foot, but it’s the running backs who have stolen the offensive spotlight for both teams. Roughriders running back Kory Sheets and Stampeders running back Jon Cornish are averaging more than 100 yards, and Sheets is on a record-breaking pace with 712 yards – the best five-game start in CFL history. Saskatchewan limited Cornish to 42 yards in Week 2 and will need to do so again to ensure they maintain their perfect start to the season.

Suggested bet: Saskatchewan WIN (1.5 units @ $2.05) LOSE, game total +56.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (27-42)

NFL pre-season (week 1) for August 10

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL, Saturday, August 10, 9.30am

The Jacksonville Jaguars will open their 2013 preseason at home while their opponent, however, has already played under the lights. The Miami Dolphins are looking to rebound from a sloppy showing against the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game last week. Both teams have plenty to prove. The Jags are coming off an awful 2-14 record in 2012, while the Dolphins are hoping to bounce back from a moderately better 7-9 season. After eventful off-seasons, both teams are hoping to be improved. The Jaguars plan to ride out Blaine Gabbert at quarterback for one more season, though Chad Henne is still around if Gabbert struggles. Whoever starts isn’t likely to inspire much confidence in fans, which is too bad because the supporting cast isn’t bad.

Justin Blackmon came on strong last season, and could be solid once he is back from suspension. He'll help out an underrated Cecil Shorts III. The offensive line improved greatly with the addition of rookie Luke Joeckel, and the run game should be strong if Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy. The Dolphins already have a preseason came under their belt, though they eased the starters into action. The development of Ryan Tannehill will be the biggest story line for the Dolphins this season. Miami needs to figure out how to protect him, though, and Jonathan Martin is tasked with playing left tackle. He fared well in the team’s first pre-season game, but will have another good test on Friday.

Suggested bet: Dolphins -1 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (27-3)

Other tips

Jets @ Lions +36.5 WIN (17-26)

Patriots +3 @ Eagles WIN (31-22)

Cardinals @ Packers +35 LOSE (17-0)

Bears @ Panthers +33.5 WIN (17-24)

Chiefs @ Saints +37 LOSE (13-17)

Cowboys @ Raiders +1.5 WIN (17-19)

MLB for August 10

Pittsburgh Pirates (70-44, 29-24 away) @ Colorado Rockies (52-64, 31-26 home), Coors Field, Denver, CO, Saturday, August 10, 10.40am

Francisco Liriano outdueled Jorge De La Rosa last weekend, and I’m expecting the outcome between these southpaws to the same at Coors Field as the Pittsburgh Pirates seek a sixth straight victory. Pittsburgh (70-44) took two of three at home from Colorado (52-64) last weekend. Liriano (12-4, 2.02 ERA) won his third straight start Saturday by allowing two hits in seven scoreless innings in a 5-2 victory. The Pirates have won two of three at Colorado in each of the three previous seasons.

De La Rosa (10-6, 3.31), meanwhile, gave up three runs over four-plus innings while striking out three and walking two. De La Rosa’s thumb flared up last month, but he said that wasn't a problem. The left-hander gave up eight runs in a 9-8, 10-inning loss to Atlanta on July 29. The Rockies, playing without the injured Carlos Gonzalez, are coming off a 1-9 trip that was capped by Thursday’s 2-1 defeat to the Mets. They have lost five straight, totaling six runs while hitting .205 with 34 strikeouts.

The Pirates figure to have Andrew McCutchen back in their line-up after the star was scratched Thursday in a 5-4, 10-inning victory over Miami because of discomfort in his right shoulder. McCutchen singled as a pinch-hitter in the seventh and is 11 for 17 over his last six games. The Pirates completed a three-game sweep in which they trailed in every game, rallying from a four-run deficit in the fifth inning Thursday. Pittsburgh's bullpen worked 10 1/3 scoreless innings in the series.

Suggested bet: Pirates WIN (1.5 units @ $1.70) LOSE, game total -8.5 (1.5 units @ $2.00) LOSE (1-10)

Other tips

IL: Rays @ Dodgers -6.5 $2.05 LOSE (6-7)

IL: Brewers @ Mariners +7.5 $1.94 WIN (10-5)

IL: Orioles WIN $1.79 WIN @ Giants -7 $1.95 PUSH (5-2)

AL: Tigers WIN $1.98 LOSE @ Yankees +8.5 $1.87 LOSE (3-4)

AL: Angels @ Indians WIN $1.85 LOSE +7.5 $1.95 LOSE (5-2)

AL: Athletics @ Blue Jays WIN $2.00 LOSE +9 $1.85 WIN (14-6)

AL: Red Sox @ Royals WIN $1.93 WIN (6-9)

AL: Rangers -1.5 $1.83 WIN @ Astros +8 $1.95 WIN (9-5)

NL: Phillies WIN $2.58 @ Nationals LOSE (2-9)

NL: Padres @ Reds WIN $1.57 WIN (2-7)

NL: Marlins @ Braves -1.5 $2.10 WIN (0-5)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals -1.5 $2.04 LOSE (3-0)

NL: Mets @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.48 WIN (4-5)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 9

Cricket for August 9

Third Test – England v Australia, Emirates Durham International Cricket Ground, Chester-le-Street, County Durham, UK, August 9-13

After Australia dominated the drawn Third Test at Old Trafford, it's tricky to predict the way the series will turn at Durham. Will Australia build on their impressive showing and keep alive their hopes of at least drawing the series before having a real go at winning back the urn this summer? Or will Australia follow up an encouraging performance with a shocker in the second of back-to-back Tests as they did at Lord's? Both look feasible. England can reasonably be expected to improve, but in truth they were not that bad at Old Trafford; Australia were just better. England is a more experienced, more consistent team than Australia. England will either be competent, good or very good. Australia on the other hand could produce anything.

And to further muddy things, we head to a ground where Test history is thin on the ground and of dubious relevance. There have been some low scores in the County Championship at Durham this season, but these are numbers that require context. Durham have a truly top-class bowling attack, and a mediocre top six. Yes, the pitch will help the seamers, but it will be no unplayable minefield. The pattern of the series is pretty clear. Every pitch is bone dry to aid England's big advantage – Swann – while also dulling Australia's main weapon - their fast bowling attack. Weather should intervene here, but not as badly as the Third Test making a result more than likely. Despite Australia’s encouraging display last week, I have to stay with the proven form and a reasonably solid price about England. Should Australia win the toss, the price is likely to get out to $3.00!

Suggested bets: England WIN (two units @ $2.00); Australia most runs 1st innings Chris Rogers (0.5 units @ $5.50); England most runs 1st innings Kevin Pietersen (0.5 units @ $4.75

NRL (R22) for August 9

Melbourne Storm (12-16) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (15-4), AAMI Park, Friday, August 9, 7.35pm AEST

Potentially one of the games of the year, this clash takes on ever greater significance than originally promised given the somewhat surprising results last round that have thrown the premiership race wide open. Nobody saw South Sydney’s capitulation at the hands of a red-hot North Queensland side coming. With full-back Greg Inglis sidelined and five-eighth John Sutton helped off with a foot injury late in the first half, their usually lethal attack lacked potency and it will be interesting to see whether they can put it all together minus two of their key playmakers.

On the other hand, any questions over Melbourne’s ability to mount a title defence evaporated in the space of 80 minutes when they blew away Canberra 68-4 in the nation’s capital last Sunday. Talk about playing yourself into form. If there was one thing the Storm needed it was a shot of confidence and with their big three of Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith back to their best they did just that as they raced in 12 tries to one. It makes for an intriguing contest on Friday night. (Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Melbourne -7.5 (three units @ $1.71) WIN (26-8)

AFL (R20) for August 9

St Kilda (3-15) v Hawthorn (15-3), Etihad Stadium, Friday, August 9, 7.50pm AEST

The Seven Network won’t be too happy to have discovered this snoozer pop up on the Friday night schedule as the leader-leading Hawks take on the 16th-placed Saints under the roof at Etihad. As mentioned in recent weeks, some sides have already turned their attention towards 2014 with St Kilda falling into that category. They’ve already sent six players to the surgeon with Scott Watters keen to get as many games into his young charges as possible. Games between these two sides aren’t common, with just four meetings in the past four years with an 87-all draw the last time they met here in 2010. That’s about as polite as I can be about the Saints’ chances – even the absence of Buddy Franklin shouldn’t stop Hawthorn covering this line with ease as Alastair Clarkson will be keen to see a more committed effort from his side after last week’s shock loss to Richmond.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn -54.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -198.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (56-102)

Racing for August 9

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW – abandoned). Harness racing: Mildura (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Melton (Vic), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Winnellie Park (NT), Mandurah (WA).

Not much of interest in today’s meetings so we’ll keep our accounts in tact for a big tilt at tomorrow’s races as more and more Spring Carnival contenders are scheduled to return to the track. I'll post harness and greyhound tips later this afternoon (see below).

Harness racing tip: Melton R7 #10 Five Star Anvil (win) LOSE (3rd)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R8 #1 Hero's Return (win) 1st ($2.40)

NFL pre-season (week 1) for August 9

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA, Friday, August 9, 10am

It’s back … kinda, with the first games of the NFL pre-season scheduled for today. The Atlanta Falcons were one of several teams that placed big bets on their quarterbacks this off-season. The team signed Matt Ryan to a loaded extension in the off-season, perhaps to the detriment of a defence that sustained several formidable losses this off-season. The Cincinnati Bengals will be a strong early preseason test when they head to the Georgia Dome. The Bengals didn't make many moves in the off-season, but they didn’t need to coming off a respectable 10-6 season. The team did well in the 2013 NFL Draft, adding tight end Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard with their first two picks. Both players will be solid intermediate passing targets for Andy Dalton. I’m expecting more game time for the Bengals’ starters than the undermanned Falcons here, so there’s a slight lean to Cincinnati.

Suggested bet: Bengals +2 WIN (34-10)

Other tips

Redskins @ Titans -35.5 LOSE (22-21)

Rams @ Browns -4 WIN (19-27)

Broncos +3.5 @ 49ers WIN (10-6)

MLB for August 9

Boston Red Sox (70-46, 31-25 away) @ Kansas City Royals (58-53, 29-25 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MS, Friday, August 9, 10.10am

Jon Lester doesn’t seem overly concerned about his last outing, and neither am I. Lester and the AL East-leading Red Sox continue their 10-game trip here against a Royals team going for a 14th win in 16 tries. After yielding two total runs while winning his first two starts after the All-Star break, Lester (10-6, 4.52 ERA) gave up a season-high 11 hits and six runs in Friday’s 7-6 loss to Arizona. But Lester hasn’t had issues against the Royals (58-53), going 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA in nine starts. It’s his lowest ERA against any team he’s faced more than four times. Prior to giving up three runs in a 4-3 home win over Kansas City on August 24, Lester had allowed one earned run or fewer in his previous six starts in this matchup, beginning with a no-hitter May 19, 2008, at Fenway Park. Lester gets the ball after Boston (70-46) took two of three at Houston. After rallying from five down in Tuesday's 15-10 victory, the Red Sox won 7-5 on Wednesday with Stephen Drew's one-out, three-run homer in the ninth the difference.

The Red Sox, up 2 1/2 on Tampa Bay in the East, will now face a Kansas City team that's won six consecutive series -- its longest run since taking nine straight in 1991 -- after grabbing two of three from Minnesota with Wednesday's 5-2 victory. The Royals are in the midst of a 15-4 second-half surge, but they've actually lost a half-game in the standings to Detroit, which won its 11th straight Wednesday. Kansas City is 8 1/2 behind the Tigers and five games out of the second wild-card spot. The Royals, though, have to like their chances moving forward if their bullpen keeps delivering. That group has a 1.32 ERA over the last 15 games. The Royals’ rotation has also been outstanding, with just one starter in the last 16 games giving up more that two runs, and Bruce Chen (4-0, 2.03) hasn’t surrendered more than a pair in any of his four starts since replacing Luis Mendoza in the rotation. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in those outings after throwing six innings of one-run ball in Saturday's 4-3, 12-inning win at the New York Mets.

Suggested bet: Red Sox WIN (three units @ $1.92) LOSE (1-5)

Other tips

AL: Tigers WIN $1.57 WIN @ Indians -7.5 $1.91 LOSE (10-3)

NL: Rockies @ Mets WIN $1.68 WIN (1-2)

NL: Marlins WIN $2.20 LOSE @ Pirates +6.5 $2.15 WIN (4-5)

NL: Cubs @ Phillies WIN $2.10 WIN +9 $2.00 WIN (1-12)

NL: Dodgers @ Cardinals WIN $1.91 LOSE (5-1)

NL: Brewers @ Giants WIN $1.60 WIN -7 $1.95 WIN (1-4)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 8

Feature: Tread carefully in NFL pre-season betting

I’ve never been a big fan of betting pre-season games in any form. Without genuine inside information, it’s difficult to ascertain what are exactly the aims and motivations of the individual teams. Here are some guidelines that are worth considering during the NFL pre-season. I’ll post some ‘leans’ over the next three weeks for interested punters, but won’t be a serious player.

Listen to the coordinators

In the modern world of ‘media speak’, club personnel rarely part with information of any use. However, I’ve noticed that coordinators – particularly new ones – are far more forthcoming, particularly in the pre-season, as they discuss new offensive systems. The list of new offensive coordinators in the NFL for 2013 comprises Harold Goodwin (Arizona), Nathaniel Hackett (Buffalo), Mike Shula (Carolina), Aaron Kromer (Chicago), Norv Turner (Cleveland), Adam Gase (Denver), Pep Hamilton (Indianapolis), Jedd Fisch (Jacksonville), Doug Pederson (Kansas City), Marty Mornhinweg (NY Jets), Greg Olson (Oakland), Pat Schurmer (Philadelphia) and Ken Whisenhunt (San Diego).

Protecting the QB

Pre-season games aren’t quite the physical affairs of the regular season, and coaches will definitely protect their franchise QBs against an aggressive defense that likes to blitz. Likewise, the QB might get limited game-time if the offensive line isn’t quite up to scratch. One game that suits this trend in the opening week of the pre-season is the Saints v Chiefs. KC is introducing a new system, new QB and new coach, but is somehow only rated a three-point dog!

‘3’ isn't the magic number

Almost one in seven NFL regular season games is decided by three points, with margins spread accordingly by the books. But there’s not much use playing overtime in August with teams more likely to play for the win than the save.  The value of spreads like 1, 1.5, and 2 increases in August, while the value of the ‘3’ declines significantly. In the opening week of the pre-season last year, four games were decided by a single point while the Browns v Lions game was decided by two. Not one of the first 16 pre-season games in 2012 recorded a three-point final margin. It was a similar story in 2011, without a single three point decision in the first two weeks of pre-season action.

Racing for August 8

Horse racing: Bendigo (Vic – abandoned), Hawkesbury (NSW), Mt Isa (Qld), Pinjarra (WA). Harness racing: Maryborough (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Penrith (NSW), Geelong (Vic). Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Maitland (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Mandurah (WA).

With today’s meeting at Bendigo abandoned, there are just three meetings scheduled around the country today. My best of the day will get the gun run from barrier 2 in race 5 from Hawkesbury – the Hawkesbury Race Club Motel 3YO Maiden over 1300 metres. #5 Parfuri is from the Darley stable with Kerrin McEvoy tin the saddle for Peter Snowden. This 3yo was unplaced at two runs in the autumn but has been gelded since then, trialled and looks well placed here.

Suggested bet: Hawkesbury R5 #5 Parfuri E/W 1x2 (two units) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Hawkesbury R1 #1 Sky Prince (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.20/$1.60)

Hawkesbury R2 #2 Lone Ballad (win) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R6 #1 Animoso (win) 1st ($1.70)

Hawkesbury R7 #4 Wine ‘n’ Dine (E/W) 3rd ($1.60)

Hawkesbury R8 #5 Vision in Motion (win) 1st ($2.90)

Mt Isa R3 #3 Marina Sands (E/W) 2nd ($1.30)

Mt Isa R5 #1 Jabiru Dreaming (win) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Penrith R4 #9 The Stingray (win) 1st ($1.60)

Greyhound racing tip: Sandown Park R4 #2 Kiss Me Ketut (win) 1st ($1.70)

MLB for August 8

Tampa Bay Rays (66-46, 29-25 away) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (57-55, 31-24 home), Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ, Thursday, August 8, 11.40am

While the Tampa Bay Rays are in the mix for both the AL East and wild-card leads, the Arizona Diamondbacks must string together some victories in order to remain a serious NL playoff contender. Looking to win consecutive games for the first time in almost two weeks, the Diamondbacks try to sweep the two-game interleague set from the visiting Rays. Cody Ross hit a three-run homer and Wade Miley threw seven strong innings as Arizona (57-55) avoided a third straight defeat with a 6-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Monday. The Diamondbacks have won three times (twice versus Tampa Bay) in nine games. They trail the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by five games and are 4.5 out of the final wild-card spot. Arizona last won consecutive games July 25-26. The Rays (66-46) lost for the ninth time in 37 games. They lead the wild-card race and are 1 1/2 games behind first-place Boston in the East.

Evan Longoria’s solo homer gave Tampa Bay a 1-0 lead in the fourth, but Arizona scored four times in the bottom of the frame to break things open. Arizona’s Randall Delgado (4-3, 3.17 ERA) takes the mound looking for a fourth straight winning start, but he allowed six runs (four earned) and a pair of two-run homers while striking out seven in six innings of a 7-6 victory at Boston on Friday. The right-hander, who threw 14 2/3 scoreless innings over his previous two outings, is 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA during interleague play. The Rays counter with Chris Archer (6-4, 2.65), who gave up four runs in 37 innings while going 4-0 in five July starts, but matched that total while allowing two homers in seven innings of a 4-1 loss to San Francisco on Friday. Making his first appearance against the Diamondbacks, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA against NL opponents.

Suggested bet: Diamondbacks WIN (2.5 units @ $2.13) WIN, game total -8 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (8-9)

Other tips

IL: Athletics WIN $2.12 LOSE @ Reds -7.5 $1.80 LOSE (5-6)

IL: Orioles WIN $1.85 @ Padres WIN (10-3)

AL: Blue Jays WIN $2.04 LOSE @ Mariners +8.5 $1.91 WIN (7-9)

AL: Tigers WIN $1.81 WIN @ Indians -8.5 $1.89 LOSE (6-5)

AL: Yankees @ White Sox WIN $1.94 WIN +7.5 $1.83 WIN (5-6)

AL: Red Sox @ Astros WIN $2.57 LOSE (7-5)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.89 WIN @ Angels +8 $2.12 WIN (10-3)

NL: Braves WIN $2.24 WIN @ Nationals -7.5 $1.80 LOSE (6-3)

NL: Cubs @ Phillies WIN $1.62 LOSE -7.5 $1.87 WIN (5-2)

NL: Marlins @ Pirates +7.5 $1.87 LOSE (2-4)

NL: Rockies @ Mets WIN -6.5 $1.91 WIN (0-5)

NL: Dodgers WIN $2.35 WIN @ Cardinals -8 $1.81 LOSE (13-4)

NL: Brewers @ Giants -1.5 $1.95 LOSE (6-1)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 7

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 1)

Over the coming weeks, I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting for the September 7 poll. The first State for preview is Western Australia.

 No. of House of Representatives seats: 15 (Coalition holds 12 seats, ALP holds 3 seats)

Two words spring to mind when it comes to the voters of Western Australia: mining tax. WA swung heavily to the Coalition in the last federal Election and with the ALP continuing to butt heads the mining industry for the bulk of the past three years, little is expected to change with anti-Labor sentiment putting one of Labor’s three seats in danger. Western Australia is very much a conservative state and it is expected to record the highest Coalition primary and two-party preferred vote. If there is a swing further to the Coalition – and the 2010 election was not high tide – then Labor could be wiped from the face of WA Federal politics.

Labor’s three WA seats are all held by a margin of less than six per cent – leaving Brand, Perth and Fremantle vulnerable. But with two seats over the 5.5 per cent-barrier and a number of quality candidates, the ALP may have enough to retain all three seats.

Brand is the most vulnerable WA seat with the high-profile Gary Gray a real chance of being defeated. While Gray is favoured to return, he meets Donna Gordin, who halved his margin in 2010. While the seat has belonged to Labor since its creation, it very nearly went to the Coalition in 1996.

Perth and Fremantle are a little safer. The ALP have lost party stalwart Stephen Smith from Perth but they have shipped in high profile State Labor minister Alannah MacTiernan, which should protect Labor. She defied the State swing last time when putting up a strong showing in Canning. Fremantle has never been a Coalition seat and there is a line of thinking that the strong swings against Labor at the last two elections may have pushed the seat as far as it will go. One seat the Coalition will be expecting back is O’Connor, after the WA Nationals shocked veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Tony Crook, the WA National who pinched the seat, is retiring, leaving the Liberal Party confident they can win back the wheat belt seat.

Of the 11 Coalition WA seats, only three are really considered any hope of being picked up by the ALP – Hasluck, Canning and Swan. Hasluck is the one seat the ALP believes they can win in WA. Ken Wyatt won the seat in 2010 with a margin of just 0.6 per cent. ALP candidate Adrian Evans is receiving plenty of backing from the Maritime Union of Australia. Wyatt can expect some kind of sophomore surge but this seat has changed hands at the past four elections, suggesting reputation means little. If the ALP sneaks ahead in the polls, this one comes right into play.

Canning and Swan are both much safer for the Coalition, held by margins of 2.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. MacTiernan could not win Canning last time so that seat is expected to move fairly heavily in the Coalition’s favour. Swan is more in play. Liberal MP Steve Irons has had some less than favourable headlines and the ALP are running a reasonably high profile candidate John Bissett. Any change in these two seats would be a shock though.

The seats of Stirling, Cowan, Forrest and Pearce are all held by margins of between 5.6 per cent and 10 per cent for the Coalition while Curtin, Moore, Durack and Tangney all have double-figure margins. None of these are going anywhere. The reality in WA is simple: it is a Coalition state and it will be the foundation of the Abbott Government should the Coalition prevail. Labor are on the defence and while they consider Hasluck attainable, they should be very happy to get out of the 2013 election with three seats.

Seats to watch

Brand – Liberal/National Party (WIN) $2.45

O’Connor – Liberal Party (WIN) $1.65

Racing for August 7

Horse racing: Sportingbet Park Sandown Hillside (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Balaklava (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Kilmore (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld), Stawell (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Cannington (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), The Gardens (NSW), The Meadows (Vic).

Racing today at Canterbury Park in Sydney is on a dead (5) for a seven-race card with my best of the day scheduled to jump in the Casino Prince @ Vinery Handicap (race 4) over 1250 metres. Having placed third in two trials, #4 Resumethegame returns here for her second campaign having won one of three earlier this year. Trained by John O’Shea and ridden here by James McDonald, who steered her to her maiden win, this 4yo mare was the highest rated runner when she saluted the judge at Newcastle in February. She’s well placed her, also at a good price.

Suggested bet: Canterbury R4 #7 Resumethegame E/W (two units) 3rd ($1.70)

Other tips

Sandown R2 #2 Westsouthwest (win) LOSE (2nd)

Sandown R4 #5 Praesentia (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)

Sandown R5 #2 Digitalism (win) 1st ($5.10)

Sandown R8 #3 The Jazz Singer (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Canterbury R5 #9 Spurtonic (E/W) 1st ($3.90/$1.90)

Canterbury R7 #5 Harada Bay (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R5 #1 Sunset Showdown (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.40/$2.00)

Doomben R6 #3 Shadow Me (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Balaklava R6 #2 Mr Schiller (win) ABANDONED

Harness racing tip: Kilmore R6 #11 Magical Mocca (E/W 1x2)
Greyhound racing tip: Bulli R3 #7 Wot Ya Wot (win)

MLB for August 7

Minnesota Twins (48-61, 22-34 away) @ Kansas City Royals (57-52, 28-24 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MS, Wednesday, August 7, 10.10am

It’s August and the Kansas City Royals are relevant. Phenomenal starting pitching is a major reason the Royals continue to surge, though their line-up proved it is capable of exceptional contributions, too. James Shields takes the mound as KC’s offence seeks another solid performance against the visiting Minnesota Twins. Kansas City (57-52), which hasn’t posted a winning record since finishing 83-79 in 2003, is surprising many by remaining in post-season contention into August. Winning 12 of its last 13 has helped that cause, with the starting rotation posting a 1.58 ERA during that stretch. Jeremy Guthrie tossed a four-hitter Monday, but the Royals also tied a season best for runs scored in a 13-0 victory over the Twins. Kansas City has outscored opponents 67-25 during its tear.

Shields (6-7, 3.08 ERA) hasn’t given manager Ned Yost much to complain about lately either, having gone 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts. He battled through five walks and allowed two runs in six innings of Thursday's 7-2 win over the Twins. Shields is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA over his last four starts versus Minnesota. Minnesota may be able to catch the Royals off guard as it sends Andrew Albers to the mound for his major league debut. Albers went 11-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 22 starts for Triple-A Rochester, and Gardenhire is looking forward to seeing what he can do at the major league level. The left-hander faced major leaguers while pitching for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic earlier this year. The Royals rank eighth in the majors hitting .260 against lefties.

Suggested bet: Royals -1.5 (three units @ $2.05) LOSE (7-1)

Other tips

IL: Athletics @ Reds WIN $1.69 WIN (1-3)

IL: Rays @ Diamondbacks WIN $2.11 WIN -8.5 $1.85 WIN (1-6)

IL: Orioles @ Padres WIN $2.18 LOSE (4-1)

AL: Tigers @ Indians -7.5 $1.91 WIN (5-1)

AL: Yankees WIN $2.13 LOSE @ White Sox -7 $1.72 WIN (2-3)

AL: Red Sox WIN $1.58 WIN @ Astros +8.5 $1.85 WIN (15-10)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.69 @ Angels WIN (8-3)

AL: Blue Jays @ Mariners -1.5 $2.15 LOSE +7.5 $2.05 WIN (7-2)

NL: Braves WIN $2.13 WIN @ Nationals +7 $1.88 LOSE (2-1)

NL: Cubs @ Phillies +8 $1.85 WIN (8-9)

NL: Marlins @ Pirates WIN $1.55 WIN -7 $1.84 PUSH (3-4)

NL: Rockies @ Mets WIN $2.04 WIN (2-3)

NL: Dodgers WIN $1.68 LOSE @ Cardinals -7 $1.76 WIN (1-5)

NL: Brewers @ Giants +7 $2.18 LOSE (3-1)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.