Daily tips for August 7

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 1)

Over the coming weeks, I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting for the September 7 poll. The first State for preview is Western Australia.

 No. of House of Representatives seats: 15 (Coalition holds 12 seats, ALP holds 3 seats)

Two words spring to mind when it comes to the voters of Western Australia: mining tax. WA swung heavily to the Coalition in the last federal Election and with the ALP continuing to butt heads the mining industry for the bulk of the past three years, little is expected to change with anti-Labor sentiment putting one of Labor’s three seats in danger. Western Australia is very much a conservative state and it is expected to record the highest Coalition primary and two-party preferred vote. If there is a swing further to the Coalition – and the 2010 election was not high tide – then Labor could be wiped from the face of WA Federal politics.

Labor’s three WA seats are all held by a margin of less than six per cent – leaving Brand, Perth and Fremantle vulnerable. But with two seats over the 5.5 per cent-barrier and a number of quality candidates, the ALP may have enough to retain all three seats.

Brand is the most vulnerable WA seat with the high-profile Gary Gray a real chance of being defeated. While Gray is favoured to return, he meets Donna Gordin, who halved his margin in 2010. While the seat has belonged to Labor since its creation, it very nearly went to the Coalition in 1996.

Perth and Fremantle are a little safer. The ALP have lost party stalwart Stephen Smith from Perth but they have shipped in high profile State Labor minister Alannah MacTiernan, which should protect Labor. She defied the State swing last time when putting up a strong showing in Canning. Fremantle has never been a Coalition seat and there is a line of thinking that the strong swings against Labor at the last two elections may have pushed the seat as far as it will go. One seat the Coalition will be expecting back is O’Connor, after the WA Nationals shocked veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010. Tony Crook, the WA National who pinched the seat, is retiring, leaving the Liberal Party confident they can win back the wheat belt seat.

Of the 11 Coalition WA seats, only three are really considered any hope of being picked up by the ALP – Hasluck, Canning and Swan. Hasluck is the one seat the ALP believes they can win in WA. Ken Wyatt won the seat in 2010 with a margin of just 0.6 per cent. ALP candidate Adrian Evans is receiving plenty of backing from the Maritime Union of Australia. Wyatt can expect some kind of sophomore surge but this seat has changed hands at the past four elections, suggesting reputation means little. If the ALP sneaks ahead in the polls, this one comes right into play.

Canning and Swan are both much safer for the Coalition, held by margins of 2.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. MacTiernan could not win Canning last time so that seat is expected to move fairly heavily in the Coalition’s favour. Swan is more in play. Liberal MP Steve Irons has had some less than favourable headlines and the ALP are running a reasonably high profile candidate John Bissett. Any change in these two seats would be a shock though.

The seats of Stirling, Cowan, Forrest and Pearce are all held by margins of between 5.6 per cent and 10 per cent for the Coalition while Curtin, Moore, Durack and Tangney all have double-figure margins. None of these are going anywhere. The reality in WA is simple: it is a Coalition state and it will be the foundation of the Abbott Government should the Coalition prevail. Labor are on the defence and while they consider Hasluck attainable, they should be very happy to get out of the 2013 election with three seats.

Seats to watch

Brand – Liberal/National Party (WIN) $2.45

O’Connor – Liberal Party (WIN) $1.65

Racing for August 7

Horse racing: Sportingbet Park Sandown Hillside (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Balaklava (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Kilmore (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld), Stawell (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Cannington (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), The Gardens (NSW), The Meadows (Vic).

Racing today at Canterbury Park in Sydney is on a dead (5) for a seven-race card with my best of the day scheduled to jump in the Casino Prince @ Vinery Handicap (race 4) over 1250 metres. Having placed third in two trials, #4 Resumethegame returns here for her second campaign having won one of three earlier this year. Trained by John O’Shea and ridden here by James McDonald, who steered her to her maiden win, this 4yo mare was the highest rated runner when she saluted the judge at Newcastle in February. She’s well placed her, also at a good price.

Suggested bet: Canterbury R4 #7 Resumethegame E/W (two units) 3rd ($1.70)

Other tips

Sandown R2 #2 Westsouthwest (win) LOSE (2nd)

Sandown R4 #5 Praesentia (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)

Sandown R5 #2 Digitalism (win) 1st ($5.10)

Sandown R8 #3 The Jazz Singer (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Canterbury R5 #9 Spurtonic (E/W) 1st ($3.90/$1.90)

Canterbury R7 #5 Harada Bay (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R5 #1 Sunset Showdown (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.40/$2.00)

Doomben R6 #3 Shadow Me (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Balaklava R6 #2 Mr Schiller (win) ABANDONED

Harness racing tip: Kilmore R6 #11 Magical Mocca (E/W 1x2)
Greyhound racing tip: Bulli R3 #7 Wot Ya Wot (win)

MLB for August 7

Minnesota Twins (48-61, 22-34 away) @ Kansas City Royals (57-52, 28-24 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MS, Wednesday, August 7, 10.10am

It’s August and the Kansas City Royals are relevant. Phenomenal starting pitching is a major reason the Royals continue to surge, though their line-up proved it is capable of exceptional contributions, too. James Shields takes the mound as KC’s offence seeks another solid performance against the visiting Minnesota Twins. Kansas City (57-52), which hasn’t posted a winning record since finishing 83-79 in 2003, is surprising many by remaining in post-season contention into August. Winning 12 of its last 13 has helped that cause, with the starting rotation posting a 1.58 ERA during that stretch. Jeremy Guthrie tossed a four-hitter Monday, but the Royals also tied a season best for runs scored in a 13-0 victory over the Twins. Kansas City has outscored opponents 67-25 during its tear.

Shields (6-7, 3.08 ERA) hasn’t given manager Ned Yost much to complain about lately either, having gone 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts. He battled through five walks and allowed two runs in six innings of Thursday's 7-2 win over the Twins. Shields is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA over his last four starts versus Minnesota. Minnesota may be able to catch the Royals off guard as it sends Andrew Albers to the mound for his major league debut. Albers went 11-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 22 starts for Triple-A Rochester, and Gardenhire is looking forward to seeing what he can do at the major league level. The left-hander faced major leaguers while pitching for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic earlier this year. The Royals rank eighth in the majors hitting .260 against lefties.

Suggested bet: Royals -1.5 (three units @ $2.05) LOSE (7-1)

Other tips

IL: Athletics @ Reds WIN $1.69 WIN (1-3)

IL: Rays @ Diamondbacks WIN $2.11 WIN -8.5 $1.85 WIN (1-6)

IL: Orioles @ Padres WIN $2.18 LOSE (4-1)

AL: Tigers @ Indians -7.5 $1.91 WIN (5-1)

AL: Yankees WIN $2.13 LOSE @ White Sox -7 $1.72 WIN (2-3)

AL: Red Sox WIN $1.58 WIN @ Astros +8.5 $1.85 WIN (15-10)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.69 @ Angels WIN (8-3)

AL: Blue Jays @ Mariners -1.5 $2.15 LOSE +7.5 $2.05 WIN (7-2)

NL: Braves WIN $2.13 WIN @ Nationals +7 $1.88 LOSE (2-1)

NL: Cubs @ Phillies +8 $1.85 WIN (8-9)

NL: Marlins @ Pirates WIN $1.55 WIN -7 $1.84 PUSH (3-4)

NL: Rockies @ Mets WIN $2.04 WIN (2-3)

NL: Dodgers WIN $1.68 LOSE @ Cardinals -7 $1.76 WIN (1-5)

NL: Brewers @ Giants +7 $2.18 LOSE (3-1)

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