Daily tips for August 11

Racing for August 11

Horse racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Casino (NSW), Cairns (Qld), Gawler (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA), Coleraine (Vic), Sapphire Coast (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Melton (Vic), Wagga (NSW), Launceston (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Mt Gambier (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Canberra (ACT).

A big crowd is expected for the Casino Cup meeting, which will be run on an ideal dead (5) under sunny skies at the northern NSW race club today. I’ve found some value in the main race – the Express Examiner Casino Cup Proudly Supported by the Northern Star (its official title) over 1400 metres and worth $25,000. Local trainer Neil Creighton has just two horses in work but is confident #4 After Baron will get the job done here. The 5yo gelding was a last start winner at Doomben in a no metro wins event on August 3 over 1200m, which was also Creighton’s first metro success as a trainer. After Baron won this track/distance on May 24, with the rider that day Kirk Matheson returning to the saddle here. He gets the gun run from barrier 1 but will be comfortable on the speed or taking a sit.

Suggested bet: Casino R6 #4 After Baron E/W 1x4 (two units) 1st ($3.40/$1.60)

Other tips

Cranbourne R7 #9 Terms of Trade (E/W) 1st ($18.20/$3.90)

Cranbourne R8 #4 Shearer (win) LOSE (U/P)

Cranbourne R10 #2 Rockin' Ransom (win) 1st ($2.90)

Casino R2 #4 Gebbie’s Gold (E/W 1x4) LOSE (U/P)

Casino R3 #1 Special Miss (win) 1st ($2.50)

Sapphire Coast R2 #4 Outrageous Deal (E/W) 3rd ($1.50)

Sapphire Coast R5 #4 St Sully (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Cairns R5 #1-4 (boxed exacta) LOSE

Coleraine R1 #1 Chapparo (win) LOSE (3rd)

Coleraine R3 #1 Another Legend (E/W 1x2) 1st ($2.30/$1.60)

Hobart R1 #10 By Far (E/W) 1st ($5.30/$1.90)

Hobart R7 #5 This Moment (E/W) 1st ($4.70/$1.70)

Harness racing tip: Melton R1 #10 Sundons Promise (win) LOSE (U/P)

Greyhound racing tip: Sale R8 #2 Cool Trend (win) LOSE (2nd)

AFL (round 20) for August 11

Essendon (13-5) v West Coast (8-10) Etihad Stadium, Sunday, August 11, 1.10pm AEST

I’m sick to death of the whole Essendon saga, which was needlessly dragged out again after it was expected that the AFL would announce the penalties relating to club’s supplements program on Friday. From a betting perspective, it’s also been a headache trying to second-guess the impact on futures markets. For this game, James Hird has named David Hille, Jason Winderlich and Ben Howlett to an extended bench while West Coast regain Mark LeCras, Matt Priddis, Chris Masten and Patrick McGinnity. Both sides have had a shocking month – the Bombers have been beaten up by Hawthorn and Collingwood in successive weeks while West Coast’s win over Gold Coast last week was their first victory in a month. I’m tipping an Essendon win, and suspect that the looming AFL decision may galvanise the side once again, but there are easier ways to make money than second-guessing the mindset of a bunch of drugged up AFL players!

Suggested bet: None

Adelaide (7-11) v North Melbourne (8-10), AAMI Stadium, Sunday, August 11, 3.20pm AEST

Back in round 9, Adelaide pipped the Kangaroos by a point having trailed by five goals in the final term, which pretty much sums up the 2013 campaign of these two sides who’ve struggled to put away their opposition all year. With all the pressure off, North played some of their most consistent footy of the season in defeating Geelong last Friday night. Coincidentally, the Crows also have a win over the Cats in their credit column but have lost seven of their past nine including a stunning loss in last Sunday’s Showdown. The mental demons that beset North earlier in the year seem to have struck Adelaide, with Brenton Sanderson bemoaning his side’s inability to close out games. This is the first time these sides have meet in Adelaide since 2009 but having won just three of 10 at home in 2013, that’s hardly an advantage for the Crows.

Suggested bet: North Melbourne WIN (two units @ $1.80) LOSE (79-70)

Fremantle (13-1-4) v Greater Western Sydney (1-17) Patersons Stadium, Sunday, August 11, 4.40pm AEST

It’s a shame we don’t hear the Giants’ club song more often as it’s an absolute corker, but it will be the sounds of “heave ho, way to go” emanating from the rooms after this clash in Perth on Sunday. Ross Lyon has his Dockers primed and ideally positioned for a deep September run and all they can do at this point is keep winning and manage their resources. I fully expect Freo to keep the foot to the floor here to cement their top four status while keeping the chance of a top two finish alive. In contrast, the Giants will discover the gap between the league’s best and worst having comfortably accounted for Melbourne last week, breaking their duck for 2013. GWS managed just five goals when the Dockers won by 95 points here in round 17 last year. I’m expecting a 10- goal margin here, putting the line firmly in play.

Suggested bet: Giants +78.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +169.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (157-44)

NFL pre-season (week 1) for August 11

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA, Sunday, August 11, 9.30am

NFL coaches will often claim that the scoreboard is irrelevant in the pre-season, and there’s a good case that Mike Tomlin won’t worry too much whether the Steelers win this one. QB Ben Roethlisberger’s health is probably the number one concern, and with all of the injuries he had/has, it’s expected he’ll play no more than one series in this game. The Steelers will be more focused on looking at LeVeon Bell and the rest of the running game. Even if the Steelers fall behind, they’ll be more concerned with evaluation than results.

Eli Manning and the offense won’t be out on the field very long in this game, nor were they in Week 1 last season. Manning was 4-8 in the first preseason game last season, and I doubt he gets more than a few series on offense with the starters. The Giants’ second-string offense is still going to be very good, and between the battle at running back, and the depth at receiver, the Giants are set up to win this game. David Carr is the back-up QB in New York, and he played very well in the first preseason game last year, going 6-10 with two touchdowns in limited work behind Manning.

Suggested bet: Giants +2.5 @ Steelers WIN (18-13)

MLB for August 11

Baltimore Orioles (64-51, 31-26 away) @ San Francisco Giants (51-64, 30-30 home), AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA, Sunday, August 11, 6.05am

Chris Davis and the Baltimore Orioles seem to enjoy interleague play. The same can’t be said of the San Francisco Giants. Davis looks to continue tormenting NL pitchers as the Orioles go for their longest interleague-winning streak in franchise history here against the Giants. Baltimore (64-51) is batting .289 with 18 homers while going 8-4 during interleague play this year, and Davis has made major contributions to that success. The first baseman leads the majors with a .477 average in interleague games, adding five homers, 11 RBIs and 14 runs. Overall, his 41 homers are the most in baseball, while his 108 RBIs tie him for the lead with Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera. Davis came through in the clutch for the Orioles on Friday, connecting for a two-out, two-run double in the 10th inning of a 5-2 win at San Francisco (51-64). They have won five straight against the senior circuit, matching team-best runs from 1999, 2009 and 2012. Wei-Yin Chen (6-4, 2.95) is scheduled to face the Giants for the first time and will attempt to rebound from his first loss since returning from the disabled list in July.

The left-hander went 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in four games after missing nearly two months with a strained right oblique. He looked capable of extending his winning streak on Sunday, allowing one run in six innings before surrendering two in the seventh and getting charged with a 3-2 loss to Seattle. Chen has found success against the NL, winning three of his last four starts behind a 2.59 ERA. He was superb in his most recent outing April 20, limiting the Los Angeles Dodgers to one run and three hits in six innings of a 6-1 victory. Unlike Davis and the Orioles, the Giants are struggling in interleague play at 3-9 while batting .226. Chad Gaudin (5-2, 2.56) is expected to take the mound for his first start against the Orioles since August 21, 2003, when he was a rookie with Tampa Bay. The journeyman right-hander has faced them 10 times since as a reliever, most recently with the New York Yankees in 2010. He enters this meeting as one of the Giants’ most effective starters since being moved into the rotation on June 1, going 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in 10 starts while holding opponents to a .215 batting average.

Suggested bet: Baltimore WIN (2.5 units @ $1.80) LOSE, game total -7 (1.5 units @ $1.95) WIN (2-3)

Other tips

IL: Rays @ Dodgers WIN $1.70 WIN (0-5)

AL: Tigers WIN $1.65 WIN @ Yankees +8.5 $1.91 WIN (9-3)

AL: Athletics WIN $2.13 @ Blue Jays LOSE (4-5)

AL: Twins @ White Sox WIN $1.83 WIN (4-5)

Adding

IL: Brewers @ Mariners WIN $1.63 LOSE -7 $2.10 LOSE (10-0)

AL: Angels WIN $2.01 WIN @ Indians -8.5 -8.5 $1.98 LOSE (7-2)

AL: Red Sox @ Royals +8.5 $2.00 LOSE (5-3)

AL: Rangers -1.5 $1.80 LOSE @ Astros +8.5 $1.83 WIN (5-4)

NL: Marlins @ Braves -1.5 $2.05 LOSE (1-0)

NL: Padres WIN $2.83 WIN @ Reds -8 $1.93 WIN (3-1)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals +7.5 $1.95 WIN (6-5)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.75 @ Rockies LOSE (4-6)

NL: Mets WIN $2.56 @ Diamondbacks WIN (4-1)

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