Daily tips for August 8

Feature: Tread carefully in NFL pre-season betting

I’ve never been a big fan of betting pre-season games in any form. Without genuine inside information, it’s difficult to ascertain what are exactly the aims and motivations of the individual teams. Here are some guidelines that are worth considering during the NFL pre-season. I’ll post some ‘leans’ over the next three weeks for interested punters, but won’t be a serious player.

Listen to the coordinators

In the modern world of ‘media speak’, club personnel rarely part with information of any use. However, I’ve noticed that coordinators – particularly new ones – are far more forthcoming, particularly in the pre-season, as they discuss new offensive systems. The list of new offensive coordinators in the NFL for 2013 comprises Harold Goodwin (Arizona), Nathaniel Hackett (Buffalo), Mike Shula (Carolina), Aaron Kromer (Chicago), Norv Turner (Cleveland), Adam Gase (Denver), Pep Hamilton (Indianapolis), Jedd Fisch (Jacksonville), Doug Pederson (Kansas City), Marty Mornhinweg (NY Jets), Greg Olson (Oakland), Pat Schurmer (Philadelphia) and Ken Whisenhunt (San Diego).

Protecting the QB

Pre-season games aren’t quite the physical affairs of the regular season, and coaches will definitely protect their franchise QBs against an aggressive defense that likes to blitz. Likewise, the QB might get limited game-time if the offensive line isn’t quite up to scratch. One game that suits this trend in the opening week of the pre-season is the Saints v Chiefs. KC is introducing a new system, new QB and new coach, but is somehow only rated a three-point dog!

‘3’ isn't the magic number

Almost one in seven NFL regular season games is decided by three points, with margins spread accordingly by the books. But there’s not much use playing overtime in August with teams more likely to play for the win than the save.  The value of spreads like 1, 1.5, and 2 increases in August, while the value of the ‘3’ declines significantly. In the opening week of the pre-season last year, four games were decided by a single point while the Browns v Lions game was decided by two. Not one of the first 16 pre-season games in 2012 recorded a three-point final margin. It was a similar story in 2011, without a single three point decision in the first two weeks of pre-season action.

Racing for August 8

Horse racing: Bendigo (Vic – abandoned), Hawkesbury (NSW), Mt Isa (Qld), Pinjarra (WA). Harness racing: Maryborough (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Penrith (NSW), Geelong (Vic). Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Maitland (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Mandurah (WA).

With today’s meeting at Bendigo abandoned, there are just three meetings scheduled around the country today. My best of the day will get the gun run from barrier 2 in race 5 from Hawkesbury – the Hawkesbury Race Club Motel 3YO Maiden over 1300 metres. #5 Parfuri is from the Darley stable with Kerrin McEvoy tin the saddle for Peter Snowden. This 3yo was unplaced at two runs in the autumn but has been gelded since then, trialled and looks well placed here.

Suggested bet: Hawkesbury R5 #5 Parfuri E/W 1x2 (two units) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Hawkesbury R1 #1 Sky Prince (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.20/$1.60)

Hawkesbury R2 #2 Lone Ballad (win) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R6 #1 Animoso (win) 1st ($1.70)

Hawkesbury R7 #4 Wine ‘n’ Dine (E/W) 3rd ($1.60)

Hawkesbury R8 #5 Vision in Motion (win) 1st ($2.90)

Mt Isa R3 #3 Marina Sands (E/W) 2nd ($1.30)

Mt Isa R5 #1 Jabiru Dreaming (win) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Penrith R4 #9 The Stingray (win) 1st ($1.60)

Greyhound racing tip: Sandown Park R4 #2 Kiss Me Ketut (win) 1st ($1.70)

MLB for August 8

Tampa Bay Rays (66-46, 29-25 away) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (57-55, 31-24 home), Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ, Thursday, August 8, 11.40am

While the Tampa Bay Rays are in the mix for both the AL East and wild-card leads, the Arizona Diamondbacks must string together some victories in order to remain a serious NL playoff contender. Looking to win consecutive games for the first time in almost two weeks, the Diamondbacks try to sweep the two-game interleague set from the visiting Rays. Cody Ross hit a three-run homer and Wade Miley threw seven strong innings as Arizona (57-55) avoided a third straight defeat with a 6-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Monday. The Diamondbacks have won three times (twice versus Tampa Bay) in nine games. They trail the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by five games and are 4.5 out of the final wild-card spot. Arizona last won consecutive games July 25-26. The Rays (66-46) lost for the ninth time in 37 games. They lead the wild-card race and are 1 1/2 games behind first-place Boston in the East.

Evan Longoria’s solo homer gave Tampa Bay a 1-0 lead in the fourth, but Arizona scored four times in the bottom of the frame to break things open. Arizona’s Randall Delgado (4-3, 3.17 ERA) takes the mound looking for a fourth straight winning start, but he allowed six runs (four earned) and a pair of two-run homers while striking out seven in six innings of a 7-6 victory at Boston on Friday. The right-hander, who threw 14 2/3 scoreless innings over his previous two outings, is 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA during interleague play. The Rays counter with Chris Archer (6-4, 2.65), who gave up four runs in 37 innings while going 4-0 in five July starts, but matched that total while allowing two homers in seven innings of a 4-1 loss to San Francisco on Friday. Making his first appearance against the Diamondbacks, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA against NL opponents.

Suggested bet: Diamondbacks WIN (2.5 units @ $2.13) WIN, game total -8 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (8-9)

Other tips

IL: Athletics WIN $2.12 LOSE @ Reds -7.5 $1.80 LOSE (5-6)

IL: Orioles WIN $1.85 @ Padres WIN (10-3)

AL: Blue Jays WIN $2.04 LOSE @ Mariners +8.5 $1.91 WIN (7-9)

AL: Tigers WIN $1.81 WIN @ Indians -8.5 $1.89 LOSE (6-5)

AL: Yankees @ White Sox WIN $1.94 WIN +7.5 $1.83 WIN (5-6)

AL: Red Sox @ Astros WIN $2.57 LOSE (7-5)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.89 WIN @ Angels +8 $2.12 WIN (10-3)

NL: Braves WIN $2.24 WIN @ Nationals -7.5 $1.80 LOSE (6-3)

NL: Cubs @ Phillies WIN $1.62 LOSE -7.5 $1.87 WIN (5-2)

NL: Marlins @ Pirates +7.5 $1.87 LOSE (2-4)

NL: Rockies @ Mets WIN -6.5 $1.91 WIN (0-5)

NL: Dodgers WIN $2.35 WIN @ Cardinals -8 $1.81 LOSE (13-4)

NL: Brewers @ Giants -1.5 $1.95 LOSE (6-1)

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