Daily tips for August 30

NRL (round 25) for August 30

Wests Tigers (7-15) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (17-5), Allianz Stadium, Friday, August 30, 7.35pm

In season 2013 the Wests Tigers and South Sydney have endured – and enjoyed – vastly different years. The Wests Tigers, in their first year under coach Mick Potter, have suffered a wretched run as their position on the ladder (14th) reflects. They’ve been through seven- and six-match losing streaks and won just seven matches all season. And now they’re facing a future without their star playmaker Benji Marshall – off to rugby at the end of the season. Thankfully, last week at least showed some hope for the future, with 18-year-old rookie half Luke Brooks delivering a five-star performance in his first game in the top grade. He helped his team to a rare victory (34-18 against the Dragons), a win that ended their most recent string of losses.

For the Rabbitohs, following years of heartache and a close call in last year’s finals series, it appears as though their glory days might have come again. With a team boasting the likes of Greg Inglis, the Burgess brothers, John Sutton, Adam Reynolds and Issac Luke, there’s no reason why the Bunnies can’t go all the way this year. The Rabbitohs have lost just five matches all season – to the Storm (twice), Sharks, Dragons and Cowboys – and were clinical enough in their clash with Canterbury last weekend. Every time the Dogs came within striking distance, the Rabbitohs skipped clear thanks to some brilliant ball-playing and creative, attacking rugby league. However, there looks some value at the line here.

Suggested bet: Wests Tigers +22.5 (two units @ $1.95) WIN (18-32)

AFL (round 23) for August 30

The concept of parity in the AFL is laughable, and nowhere does it manifest more than in the final home and away round. Organisations as large as the NFL or EPL can manage to play all games simultaneously, and it’s theoretically possible in the AFL too, except for an inflexible TV rights deal that means round 23 will still be played on an uneven field. It looms as an equally precarious round for punters, with numerous scenarios and levels of motivation overlaying each game. And thanks to the AFL for resolving the Essendon mess at the latest possible moment – at least the Tigers won’t be finishing ninth this year!

To summarise the “four into one” equation (the Eagles can’t seriously be considered a finals contender), it could be all decided by Saturday night if Carlton beats Port. If the Blues lose, Brisbane would be next in line but they’ll have needed to beat Geelong earlier in the day. The real x-factor is Adelaide – if the Power beat Carlton and the Cats win over the Lions, the Crows will need a sizeable win over the Eagles in Perth while also requiring Collingwood to beat North the next day. However, a Kangaroos victory along with Carlton and Brisbane defeats would propel Brad Scott’s side into the finals. From a punting perspective, watch these situations and the associated market fluctuations carefully as the results come in.

Sydney (15-5) v Hawthorn (18-3), ANZ Stadium, Friday, August 30, 7.50pm AEST

The round 23 betting minefield starts here with the Hawks in a position to have a big say in whether they’d like to face Fremantle or Sydney in the first week of the finals at the MCG. Defeat here would almost certainly mean Hawthorn finished second while victory would mean a rematch against the Swans next week in a qualifying final at the MCG. The Swans were already struggling with injuries before they lost Daniel Hannebery and Rhyce Shaw for this. Hawthorn may be traveling without Cyril Rioli and Brent Guerra but bring back Jordan Lewis and Paul Puopolo. This is the first meeting between last year’s grand finalists at Homebush since 2009, which the Swans won in a shootout. Back in round 7, the Hawks reversed the Grand Final loss with a 37-point victory. With little at stake except the potential for more injuries, I’m not expecting 100 per cent from the Swans.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn 1-39 (one unit @ $3.25), game total +187.5 (two units @ $1.90)

Racing for August 30

Horse racing: Mildura (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Wagga (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Melton (Vic), Newcastle (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Mt Gambier (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

With such a huge day of racing scheduled for tomorrow, I’m going to take a breather today and prepare for the ‘unofficial’ start to the 2013 Spring Racing Carnival. In the meantime, I recently featured some information gathered by Dave Duffield and the team at Champion Picks, relating to the Victoria’s most profitable jockeys and trainers in punting terms. So how do their contemporaries in NSW compare? Based on an overall benchmark for all runners of around -8% profit on turnover, these were the best-performed Sydney metro jockeys: Nash Rawiller (above the benchmark again although a drop-off on the previous season), Glyn Schofield ('blind' profit two straight years is a great achievement), Tommy Berry (the standout metro performer), Kerrin McEvoy (very good season for a much maligned hoop) and Blake Shinn (another good season just like 2011-12). Christian Reith and Corey Brown recorded terrible returns for their followers while Peter Robl went from an under-rated metro jock to over-rated in one season.

Adding Provincial and Country results to the mix, Glyn Schofield (still very much under-rated by the market), Robert Thompson (one of only two of the top 10 who achieved a profit across all runners) and Peter Robl and Christian Reith (performed much better away from the metro area) stood out while Grant Buckley turned in consecutive well below par seasons. In terms of the Sydney Metro Trainer's Premiership, Chris Waller and Joe Pride recorded very good (and much improved) results but John O'Shea, Kris Lees and Anthony Cummings were all below par and less profitable than the previous season. From an overall perspective, the non-metro runners of Kris Lees performed well while Darren Smith and Luke Griffith also made a profit across all runners. Paul Perry was clearly the most over-rated trainer (by the betting market) in the top 10.

NFL pre-season (week 4) for August 29-30

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1), MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ, Friday, August 30, 9am

I don’t have a lot of interest in today’s full slate of NFL pre-season games. The teams who’ve pretty well decided on their final squads will be content to keep their powder dry for the opening week of the regular season. Many of the sides that have yet to decide, have suffered injuries or are just plain bad will be trying everything today. With such varying levels of motivation, more will be learned by watching than betting today. For the desperados, one game has really piqued my interest as the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets will finish up their respective preseason schedules at MetLife Stadium. Philadelphia seems ready to start the regular season after naming Michael Vick as its starting quarterback to run the fast system of new head coach Chip Kelly. On the other sideline, the Jets appear as though they could use another month before the games count, sporting a disaster at the QB position with Mark Sanchez (pictured), Geno Smith and co exchanging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Both teams have been in the headlines this off-season for all the wrong reasons, ranging from Mike Goodson's arrest and Riley Cooper's racism to Jeremy Maclin's torn ACL and Rex Ryan turning his back on the media. Philadelphia is in a very interesting position coming into the season – the team is expected to finish last in the NFC East. In recent years, the Eagles have gone into the year with very high expectations, including two years ago when they had put together the “Dream Team” only to finish 8-8. No team is a bigger mess than New York. Of course, the headlines are all about the QBs, but there are other problems. With Santonio Holmes only recently returning to practice after suffering injury last season, the receiving corps is brutal. Braylon Edwards was released on Monday, leaving only Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley on the roster with any kind of name recognition.

Suggested bet: Eagles -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +39.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-27)

Other games (no other tips)

Colts @ Bengals

Lions @ Bills

Jaguars @ Falcons

Steelers @ Panthers

Redskins @ Bucs

Saints @ Dolphins

Giants @ Patriots

Titans @ Vikings

Ravens @ Rams

Browns @ Bears

Packers @ Chiefs

Texans @ Cowboys

Cardinals @ Broncos

49ers @ Chargers

Raiders @ Seahawks

MLB for August 29-30

Milwaukee Brewers (58-74, 28-39 away) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (77-55, 43-23 home), PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA, Friday, August 30, 9.10am

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a losing record in August, an extended run of mediocrity that finally cost them their grip on first place earlier this week. Gerrit Cole should help them get it back ahead of the team’s most significant series in two decades. After some extra rest, the rookie right-hander looks to pitch the Pirates back into a share of the NL Central lead against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates (77-55) moved ahead of St. Louis in the division with a doubleheader sweep of the Cardinals on July 30, and stayed on top until falling one-half game behind on  Monday. That deficit grew to 1 1/2 games with Tuesday’s 7-6 loss to Milwaukee and a St. Louis win, but they bounced back and improved to 12-13 in August with a 7-1 win Wednesday while the Cardinals lost 10-0. After this finale against the Brewers (58-74), Pittsburgh will play six of its next nine against St Louis (starting with three at PNC Park on Friday) as it pursues its first winning record and playoff berth since 1992.

With the Cardinals idle Thursday, Cole (6-6, 3.81 ERA) will get a chance to send the Pirates into their weekend series in a first-place tie. With the former No. 1 overall pick having thrown 146 total innings between Triple-A and the majors (14 more than he did in 2012) the Pirates are being cautious with his workload down the stretch. Aside from being concerned with Cole's health, giving him some extra rest has proven beneficial. Milwaukee counters with Yovani Gallardo (9-9, 4.61), who gets his first look at someone other than Cincinnati since returning from the DL. The right-hander held the Reds scoreless for 6 1/3 innings in a 2-0 win in his first start back on August 17, then gave up three runs over six before the Brewers won 6-4 in Cincinnati on Friday. He's felt plenty comfortable at PNC Park, going 4-2 with a 1.69 ERA in seven career starts. The last time Gallardo saw the Pirates, however, he only lasted four innings while giving up four runs in a 5-4 home loss on May 26.

Suggested bet: Pirates WIN (2.5 units @ $1.62) LOSE, game total -7.5 (1.5 units @ $1.92) WIN (4-0)

Other tips

IL: Indians @ Braves WIN $1.71 WIN -7.5 $1.97 WIN (1-3)

AL: Athletics @ Tigers WIN $1.53 WIN +7.5 $1.91 WIN (6-7)

AL: Royals WIN $1.81 WIN @ Twins -8 $2.05 WIN (3-1)

AL: Angels @ Rays WIN $1.58 LOSE -8.5 $1.88 WIN (2-0)

AL: Orioles WIN $2.32 @ Red Sox WIN (3-2)

AL: Mariners @ Astros WIN $2.30 LOSE +9 $2.00 LOSE (3-2)

NL: Phillies @ Mets WIN $1.91 WIN (3-11)

NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.90 @ Nationals LOSE (0-9)

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