Daily tips for August 21

Cricket for August 21

Fifth Test – England v Australia, Kennington Oval, London, UK, August 21-25

Our Ashes bank balance is in healthy shape with a 3-1 record in head-to-head betting and a handful of exotics saluting across the series. We also have equity in the 3-1 series result so no need to be loading up on the Aussies here. I’m happy to be able to avoid at least one option for this Ashes finale as it looks a tricky affair. With England 3-0 up and the urn secure, motivation becomes a key factor. This is a new experience for England; while they may have retained the Ashes in Melbourne in 2010-11, the series wasn't safe until the victory in Sydney the following week. Going back to the time of Australian dominance, the Oval Test was often a chance for England to bag a late consolation, winning in both 1993 and 1997 with the series long gone. In Australia, too, England picked up similar victories in Melbourne (1998-89) and Sydney (2002-03). Will England do the same?

A dry weather forecast and everything we’ve seen in this series to date points to a positive result, and I have to stay with England, especially at another generous quote of $2.10. They are a side used to winning and will be keen to keep Australia down heading into the summer’s reverse series. Team news is also a factor here. England have lost Tim Bresnan to a back injury. They will either bring in Chris Tremlett, lengthening the tail, or Chris Woakes, which is a significant loss in terms of experience. Stuart Broad may have taken the headlines in Durham, but it was Bresnan who made crucial lower-order runs and took the tide-turning wicket of Dave Warner during the run-chase. Australian all-rounder James Faulkner will make his Test debut, replacing Usman Khawaja, while left-arm paceman Mitchell Starc is recalled at the expense of Jackson Bird.

Suggested bets: England WIN (two units @ $2.05), England fall of 1st wicket -33.5 (one unit @ $1.90), Australia most runs 1st innings David Warner (0.75 units @ $5.00), England most runs 1st innings Kevin Pietersen (one unit @ $4.50)

Racing for August 21

Horse racing: Sportingbet Park Sandown Hillside (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Gawler (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Cobram (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Cannington (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), The Gardens (NSW), The Meadows (Vic).

Having listened to the rain tumble down for most of the night, it was a pleasant surprise to find today’s eight-race card at Sandown being run on a dead (5). My best of the day comes up in the final race of the day, the Le Pine Funerals BM78 Handicap over 1800m. The field features quite a few jumpers having a run on the flat, with this distance well below their ideal trip. I’ve settled on the lightly-raced 7yo gelding #11 Te Karaka for Mike Moroney with Craig Williams in the saddle. His form this campaign has been solid with a win on the Geelong Synthetic (July 16) before a runner-up finish at Sale three week ago. He drops four kgs on that run and will get an even look from barrier 10 in this maximum field of 16.

Suggested bet: Sandown R8 #11 Te Karaka E/W 1x2 (two units) 3rd ($1.70)

Other tips

Sandown R4 #6 Grane (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Sandown R5 #2 Office Bearer (win) 1st ($2.00)

Canterbury R1 #2 Danas Best (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.50/$1.80)

Canterbury R5 #1 Cloud Valley (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Canterbury R6 #4 Ecuador (win) LOSE (2nd)

Doomben R1 #1 Greedy (win) 1st ($2.80)

Doomben R7 #3 Show Us A Smile (win) 1st ($2.80)

Doomben R8 #1 Revitalise (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.60)

Gawler R4 #10 Rocky Diamond (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Gawler R7 #4 Shaabam (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Bendigo R8 #1 Three Gold Bars (win) 1st ($1.40)

Greyhound racing tip: The Gardens R8 #1 Candy Queen (win) LOSE (3rd)

MLB for August 21

Houston Astros (41-83, 22-40 away) @ Texas Rangers (72-53, 36-27 home), Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX, Wednesday, August 21, 10.10am

I’m going a bit left of centre for today’s MLB tip as the Astros take on their rivals the Rangers in Arlington. On the surface, the Astros 41-83 record is woeful but the 162-game MLB season is a marathon and even the worst sides go through patches where they outperform their overall record. The Astros are going through such a patch, and will have no fear facing Aussie pitcher Travis Blackley, who was traded by the Astros to the Rangers on August 14, less than a week after designating him for assignment. The lefty went 1-1 with a 4.89 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 35 innings before Houston’s bevy of Minor League call-ups eased him out the door.

The trade has put the 30-year-old Australian in a whirlwind, from the doldrums of an August in last place to competing for a roster spot on a playoff contender. Houston is used to this by now, facing former ace Bud Norris a day after dealing him to Baltimore at the Trade Deadline three weeks ago. Norris beat the Astros that day, but this situation is a bit different. Blackley hasn’t started since contributing to Oakland’s torrid run to the postseason last fall, serving as both the A’s No. 5 starter and a spot starter from June through October of 2012. Even on a young Astros squad that has shuffled the rotation and actually expanded to a six-man rotation at the beginning of August, Blackley never got the same chance.

The Rangers rolled to a 16-5 win in the series opener on Monday night, scoring 11 runs in the third inning. Astros rookie Jarred Cosart awaits in the rematch. The righty has opened his career with a sterling 1.15 ERA through six starts and 39 innings. He’s only 1-0, though, since the offense has only provided an average of three runs per game for him. Astros catcher Carlos Corporan left last night’s game against the Rangers with an apparent head injury after getting hit with a foul tip. The incident occurred in the third inning on the third pitch of Alex Rios' second at-bat. Corporan finished the inning, but was replaced behind the plate by infielder Jake Elmore in the bottom of the fourth.

Suggested bet: Astros +1.5 (two units @ $2.00) LOSE (2-4)

Other tips

IL: Red Sox @ Giants +1.5 $1.91 WIN (2-3)

AL: Blue Jays @ Yankees WIN $1.54 (game 1) WIN (4-8)

AL: Blue Jays @ Yankees +9 $1.91 (game 2) LOSE (2-3)

AL: Rays WIN $1.94 @ Orioles WIN (7-4)

AL: Twins @ Tigers WIN $1.53 LOSE +9 $1.88 PUSH (6-3)

AL: White Sox @ Royals WIN $1.55 LOSE -7.5 $1.93 WIN (2-0)

AL: Indians @ Angels WIN $1.91 LOSE (4-1)

AL: Mariners @ Athletics WIN $1.54 LOSE (7-4)

NL: Rockies WIN $1.95 WIN @ Phillies -8.5 $1.94 WIN (5-3)

NL: D'backs WIN $2.32 WIN @ Reds -7.5 $1.79 WIN (5-2)

NL: Braves @ Mets WIN $2.36 WIN (3-5)

NL: Dodgers @ Marlins +7.5 $2.00 WIN (6-4)

NL: Nationals @ Cubs WIN $2.22 LOSE (4-2)

NL: Cardinals WIN $1.73 @ Brewers LOSE (3-6)

NL: Pirates @ Padres WIN $2.08 LOSE +6.5 $1.95 WIN (8-1)

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 3)

Over the coming weeks, I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting ahead of the September 7 poll. The third State for preview is Tasmania.

No. of House of Representatives seats: 5 (ALP holds 4 seats, Independents hold 1 seat, Coalition holds 0 seats)

Little change was forecast in the first states previewed (Western Australia and South Australia) but polling indicates Labor faces a tough time in Tasmania. With an unpopular ALP State Government, floundering economy and one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, Labor faces the loss two, possibly three, of its four seats. Over the past decade, Tasmania has been a cornerstone of the ALP. The Coalition has managed just two wins in Tasmania’s five seats over the past three elections. The two seats they gained from Labor in 2004, Bass and Braddon, are the two Tasmanian seats most likely to change hands next month. The 1993 election was the only time since 1958 that the two seats – that have remarkably similar demographic profiles – elected members from different parties. Bass MP Geoff Lyons is facing an uphill battle to retain the seat he won in 2010 with polling giving the seat to Andrew Nikolic and the Coalition by a margin of more than five per cent on a swing of nearly 12 per cent.

Similarly, veteran MP Sid Sidebottom will battle to retain Braddon, the seat he holds by a margin of 7.5 per cent. Polling is forecasting a staggering swing of more than 14 per cent with former state MP Brett Whitely primed to win the seat for the Coalition. Lyons is also in play with Dick Adams, one of the longest standing Federal Labor MPs, in danger of losing a seat he currently holds by 12.3 per cent. ReachTel polling estimates the swing could as a large as 20 per cent. The only truly safe ALP seat is Franklin, the Hobart seat held by a margin of 10.3 per cent. Hobart is expected to swing a lot less than the rest of the state and Julie Collins is viewed as a strong local MP. Independent Andrew Wilkie shocked pundits in 2010 with a win in Denison and is a prohibitive favourite to back it up with a win after fighting hard on local issues and becoming a truly independent MP. If he does get beaten, the seat will likely revert to the ALP.

Seats to watch

Lyons – Liberal/National Party (WIN) $2.45

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