Daily tips for August 17

EPL for August 17

Arsenal v Aston Villa, Emirates Stadium, London, UK, Sunday, August 18, midnight

It’s great to have the EPL back – I’ll declare here that, matching the other perennially underachieving teams I follow in other codes, my EPL team is Aston Villa. The more last season went on, the more impressive Paul Lambert's side were, and the addition of six more young new signings should only improve his squad further and the supporters' belief in the idea of evolution through youth.  At 23, the exciting Bulgarian winger Aleksander Tonev is the oldest of Villa's new boys, and if as expected, Shay Given departs this transfer window, there won't be a single player aged 30 or above in the squad. As well as the newcomers, seven of last season’s team have signed new long-term deals this summer, with the persuasion of Christian Benteke (pictured) to stay surely the most important signing of all. Villa have played their opening fixture away from Villa Park 12 times in the EPL era and have only won once (1-0 at Newcastle in 1999), drawing seven and losing four. But they were the only top-flight side to earn more points away (21) than at home (20) last season.

Will Arsenal fans be looking at him thinking what they could have had?  They have signed one player who’s been likened to Benteke (20-year-old Frenchman Yaya Sanogo) – but that’s it, just one player. Bids for superstars like Luis Suarez and Gonzalo Higuain show that Arsene Wenger is trying to strengthen with sizeable funds available, and the boss insists the club will be active in the transfer market until deadline day.  Until a marquee name arrives, however, he needs a really good start to keep all the loyal Emirates customers on-side and optimistic. This was the place that saw more goals than any other in the Premier League last season, and with Walcott, Giroud, Benteke and Weimann all firing well in pre-season. Arsenal have lost only two of their last 29 league meetings with Aston Villa (W18, D9, L2) while Villa have only won twice on their last 27 league trips to Arsenal. The Gunners lost only one of their last 16 Premier League games in 2012-13 (W12, D3, L1), clinching Champions League qualification for the 16th consecutive season. It is 20 years since they lost at home on the opening weekend – a 3-0 defeat by Coventry.

Suggested bet: Both Teams Score (2.5 units @ $1.80) WIN (1-3)

Other tips

Liverpool v Stoke City -2.5 ($2.00) WIN (1-0)

West Bromwich Albion WIN ($2.25) v Southampton LOSE (0-1)

West Ham Utd v Cardiff City DRAW ($3.45) LOSE (2-0)

Swansea City +0.5 v Manchester Utd $1.75 LOSE (1-4)

The Rugby Championship (week 1) for August 17

Australia v New Zealand, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Saturday, August 17, 8.05pm

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Australia will launch its latest bid to prise the Bledisloe Cup from New Zealand’s grasp when the two sides go head-to-head in the Rugby Championship opener at ANZ Stadium. The All Blacks have dominated the battle for trans-Tasman bragging rights in recent years having held the sizeable silverware for the last decade. The Wallabies may have had their successes in that time – most recently in Brisbane in 2011 on their way to the Tri-Nations title – but they have failed to match the consistent excellence of their neighbours who collected their 11th southern hemisphere crown last year.

Australia enter this latest showdown – the first of three Cup clashes in the next three months – on the back of a demoralising series defeat to the British & Irish Lions last month that prompted an end of Robbie Deans’ tenure as the Wallabies’ coach and he has since been succeeded by Ewen McKenzie. There has been no such turmoil in New Zealand with coach Steve Hansen having seen his side warm-up for the defence of their title with a hard-fought series victory over France in June.

The Wallabies have named five uncapped players in their squad – headed by playmaker Matt Toomua who makes his debut at fly-half. His fellow Brumbies – Scott Sio, Scott Fardy, Nic White and Tevita Kuridrani – have earned places on the bench. The starting line-up shows eight changes to that beaten in the Third Test against the Lions – Ben Mowen shifts to No.8 and James O’Connor to the wing with prop James Slipper, lock Rob Simmons, flankers Hugh McMeniman and Michael Hooper, fullback Jesse Mogg and Toomua also handed starts.

Richie McCaw returns from a sabbatical to lead an experienced-looking All Blacks’ line-up that shows six changes to that which started the 3rd Test against France in June. The most notable is the selection of Aaron Cruden at fly-half with Dan Carter sidelined through injury. Elsewhere, Julian Savea returns to the left wing and Aaron Smith starts at scrum-half. McCaw is back at openside while Steve Luatua was a late inclusion at blindside following an injury to Liam Messam. Tony Woodcock will pack down at loose-head with Wyatt Crockett another absent through injury.

Suggested bet: Australia +4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +45.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (29-47)

NRL (round 23) for August 17

North Queensland Cowboys (7-2-11) v Gold Coast Titans (7-13), 1300SMILES Stadium, Saturday, August 17, 5.30pm

The Cowboys have raised one last effort for a crack at a place in the finals. The fact that effort has come in the wake of coach Neil Henry getting the news his services won't be required by the club for next season is just another of those strange developments that often occurs in the NRL The players have made it clear they are trying to send Henry out the right way, which makes you wonder why they couldn't have done better during the first 20 rounds. The Cowboys looked gone for this season after their latest, three-game losing streak, but wins in the last two rounds over the Rabbitohs (30-12) and Panthers (36-4) have given them something to play for in the remaining four rounds. They can't afford another loss from here, and there is no guarantee four more wins and a final competition points tally of 28 would get them into the finals, but it would go close. Particularly since, despite the fact they have a win-loss record of 8-12, their points for-and-against differential is relatively healthy plus-three. 

The Titans' season appeared to be failing as well, after a run of four wins in six games was followed by four straight losses, but they have bounced back to beat the Tigers (36-6) and Bulldogs (26-16) in the last two rounds. The Titans have climbed back to eighth spot, with a 10-10 record, a differential of minus-11, and 24 points. The Cowboys are on 20 points, and it would obviously do their cause a lot of good to not only win, but to beat one of the teams not too far ahead of them on the competition table. It is possible, but unlikely, that both teams will make the finals, which should create a real, cut-throat atmosphere for this game and make it one of the best of the round to watch. Both coaches have named the same 17-man squads from last weekend. The only movement within that is from the Titans, who have elevated Luke Douglas from the bench to start and relegated Ryan James to the bench.

Suggested bet: Cowboys -8.5 (two units @ $1.87) WIN (22-10)

Racing for August 17

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Kembla Grange (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Bairnsdale (Vic), Narrandera (NSW), Darwin (NT), Broome (WA). Harness racing: Globe Derby (SA), Albion Park (Qld), Bunbury (WA), Menangle (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Young (NSW). Greyhound racing: Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Traralgon (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW).

The scent of spring is in the air with several major contenders returning to action today with Group 3 action scheduled in both Melbourne and Sydney. However, I’ll again be looking to Morphettville for the best of the day. #1 Perfect Punch will jump from barrier 5 in race 6 (the Mill Park Stud Handicap over 2028m). With thanks to a 2kg claim for Adelaide champion jockey Jamie Kah, this 5yo gelding can slip back into class against which he rates off the charts. He was second here last Saturday over 1600m but the step up in distance presents no problems for this former Derby runner.

Suggested bet: Morphettville R6 #1 Perfect Punch E/W 1x2 (two units) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R1 #8 Text ‘N’ Hurley (win) 1st ($2.25)

Caulfield R2 #2 Pakal (E/W) 1st ($7.40/$4.30)
Caulfield R3 #8 Bells of Troy (win) LOSE (2nd)

Caulfield R5 #8 Metastasio (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.60)

Caulfield R6 #6 Pago Rock (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R7 #1 Bello (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R8 #6 Octavia (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.20/$1.40)

Rosehill R1 #7 Champagne Cath (win) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R2 #5 Lunayir (E/W) 3rd ($2.30)

Rosehill R3 #4 Tenby Lady (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.10)

Rosehill R4 #6 Photon Willie (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.80/$1.80)

Rosehill R6 #8 Va Pensiero (E/W) 1st ($10.10/$2.50)

Rosehill R8 #2 Travolta (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Doomben R2 #1 Secret Harmony (win) LOSE (2nd)

Doomben R3 #1 Mukaddamah Son (win) LOSE (2nd)

Doomben R4 #4 Cuddlesome (win) 1st ($1.90)

Doomben R5 #1 D’Jet (win) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R1 #3 Kushadasi (win) 1st ($4.10)

Morphettville R5 #3 Whitten’s Delight (win) 1st ($3.00)

Morphettville R7 #7 Lago Di Como (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R8 #6 Debeersonus (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Belmont R1 #9 Star of Husson (win) LOSE (U/P)

Belmont R3 #8 Pure Glamour (win) 1st ($4.10)

Belmont R6 #9 Red Blast (E/W 1x2) 1st ($2.90/$1.70)

Kembla Grange R3 #1 Fraud (E/W) 3rd ($2.00)

Kembla Grange R5 #4 Robard (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Shepparton R8 #6 Lovable Larrikin (win) 1st ($1.90)

Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R6 #2 Irma Bale (win) LOSE (4th)

AFL (round 21) for August 17

Richmond (13-6) v Carlton (9-10), MCG, Saturday, August 17, 1.45pm AEST

The Tiger army is marching into September for the first time since 2001 and just the third time in three long and miserable decades, and it’s hard to see their momentum being halted here by a stumbling Carlton outfit. Having ended their five-year drought against the Blues in the 2013 season opener (although in hardly emphatic fashion), Damien Hardwick will be eager to see his side make a statement against the club’s greatest rival, while putting a strong four-quarter performance in response to last week’s fadeout against the Lions. The Blues had everything at stake last week but still fell to the Bulldogs and their position here has been significantly weakened by the loss of skipper Chris Judd, Jeff Garlett and a season-ending injury to Andrew Carrazzo. Richmond is on a five-game winning streak at the MCG by an average of 39 points, and only the intervention of the predicted rain is likely to keep the margin closer in this one.

Suggested bet: Richmond 1-39 (two units @ $2.10) LOSE, game total +178.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (96-106)

Port Adelaide (11-8) v Gold Coast (7-12), AAMI Stadium, Saturday, August 17, 2.10pm AEST

Two years have passed since the Suns erased a 40-point fourth quarter deficit to claim their debut League win over a then-hapless Port Adelaide. Gold Coast have taken giant strides since that day, and so have the Power. Both sides are averaging three goals per game more in 2013 than last year. But it’s Port with everything at stake here. With the Essendon saga dragged out for another 10 days, Port’s spot in the top eight remains mathematically under threat from Carlton and West Coast. Additionally, Guy McKenna will be unable to call on the services of Campbell Brown, Nathan Bock, Alex Sexton, Sam Day and Matt Shaw while the Suns’ key numbers have dipped in the past fortnight. The Power could easily have been blown away by Geelong at Simonds Stadium last week, but clawed their way back inside five goals, and that reads pretty good form for this one.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide 1-39 (two units @ $2.15) WIN (113-96)

Essendon (13-6) v Nth Melbourne (8-11), Etihad Stadium, Saturday, August 17, 4.40pm AEST

Another farce served up thanks to the AFL’s insistence to drag the decision regarding Essendon’s finals status into the last week of the home and away season. I’ve read numerous previews of this game quoting the “mindset” of the Essendon players. From a punting perspective, it’s bloody hard to make a judgment on the state of mind among the players after the first charges were laid this week. Purely based on form, the Roos look the goods here. The Bomber players looked physically and emotionally spent after half-time against the Eagles on the way to a nine-goal loss. North came up short against a steely Adelaide outfit at AAMI Stadium but no questioning their desire. Essendon will be without Jason Winderlich, Paddy Ryder and Dustin Fletcher while Stewart Crameri returns. These fixtures – all played at Etihad – have typically been close in recent years. If you must bet, I have a lean to the ‘under’ game total of 196.5.

Suggested bet: None

Brisbane Lions (8-11) v Greater Western Sydney (1-18), Gabba, Saturday, August 17, 7.40pm AEST

Coincidentally, perhaps, the Lions chose to release news of the sacking of Michael Voss on the day charges were confirmed against key Essendon personnel. The news was greeted with genuine surprise by the majority of the football industry, especially with the Lions still a slim chance of playing finals if the Bombers are stripped of premiership points. Still, this is tricky game to assess. Brisbane clawed their way back into the contest last week and looked a chance of upsetting Richmond until late in the final quarter. The Giants were smashed by Freo in Perth on Sunday, and face another trip on a six-day break here. Historically, sacked coaches equate to a slump in form and I expect Brisbane to follow that trend here. The 10-goal line holds no appeal but the ‘under’ game total, especially with the absence of Jonathan Brown, has limited attraction. Thankfully, Saturday night viewers have another choice!

Suggested bet: Game total -193.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (123-63)

West Coast (9-10) v Geelong (15-4), Patersons Stadium, Saturday, August 17, 7.40pm AEST

The bookies clearly liked what they saw last Sunday at Etihad where the Eagles demolished the Bombers by nine goals and opened with the home side as just two-goal underdogs. It’s not totally without reason – West Coast are back in the finals race and won this equivalent game last year by five points while Geelong have lost two of their past three in Perth and two of their past four this season. I’m taking the opposite view and have the Cats as my best of the round. John Worsfold’s side has struggled to match the better midfields all year with their ability to turn the ball over limited. Mark LeCras will miss with a rib injury and Luke Shuey returns for the hosts while Cats’ whipping boy Tom Hawkins has been spared the long flight due to a ‘back’ injury. Like the other sides in the top four, the stakes are just too high for the Cats to slip up here.

Suggested bet: Geelong -13.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (41-107)

NFL pre-season (week 2) for August 17

San Francisco 49ers (0-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (0-1), Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO, Saturday, August 17, 10am

Spirits should be high here as Alex Smith meets his former team for the first time since departing the 49ers at the end of season 2012. Neither team impressed last week. San Francisco turned the ball over four times in its 10-6 loss to Denver. QB Colin Kaepernick did complete all four of his passes and was in for only one drive, which resulted in a field goal. From there, the Niners did almost nothing. New kicker Phil Dawson was two of three on attempts. Reports are that last year's 1st round draft choice WR AJ Jenkins is treading on thin ice and may be in danger of not making the team. The 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, and after a strong off-season, the only thing left for them to do is go back and win it this time.

This is Year One of the new regime in Kansas City. Gone are Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel, and in are John Dorsey and Andy Reid. They brought in a significant class of free agents to bolster a team that went 2-14 in 2012 and finished with the first pick in the draft, and also traded for Smith to be at least the short-term answer at quarterback. The Chiefs should easily be better than they were last year, but how much, exactly, remains to be seen. Smith completed seven of eight pass attempts in leading the starters to a touchdown on the opening drive, but from there Kansas City did little, if anything. The special teams were promising with two big returns, one on a kickoff, the other on a punt. Starting running back Jamal Charles is out after straining his foot in practice. He is expected to be fine.

Suggested bet: Chiefs WIN (one unit @ $1.67) LOSE, game total -42.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (15-13)

Other tips

Vikings @ Bills -3 WIN (16-20)

Bucs @ Patriots -3 WIN (21-25)

Raiders @ Saints +42.5 WIN (20-28)

MLB for August 17

New York Mets (55-64, 30-32 away) @ San Diego Padres (54-67, 31-28 home), Petco Park, San Diego, CA, Saturday, August 17, 12.10pm

The San Diego Padres were counting on a change of scenery benefiting Ian Kennedy when they acquired him at the trade deadline, and he has yet to disappoint. His history against the New York Mets suggests that run could continue. Kennedy continued his solid stretch Sunday, giving up two runs and three hits in eight innings before San Diego beat Cincinnati 3-2 in 13 innings. He’s 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA over his last five starts. The right-hander has had a tough season overall, but he’s been good in two starts for the Padres (54-67) since the trade. Kennedy is used to beating the Mets, as he’s 4-0 with a 3.45 ERA in five career starts against them. His winning streak versus New York was snapped despite a solid performance July 4, when he allowed two runs and struck out eight in seven innings of the Diamondbacks’ 5-4, 15-inning win.

The Mets will look to take the second of this four-game set as Jonathon Niese takes the mound. Niese (4-6, 4.45) returned from a partially torn left rotator cuff on Sunday and allowed four runs in six innings of a 9-5 victory over Arizona. It was his first start since suffering the injury June 20 against Atlanta. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last seven starts. Niese has been solid against the Padres ever since allowing a leadoff single and retiring the next 27 batters in a 3-0 win June 10, 2010. He’s 2-2 with a 2.15 ERA in four career outings against San Diego after allowing two runs in 6 2/3 innings of an 11-2 win opening day April 1. The Padres have dropped seven of nine, getting outscored 52-23 in that stretch. San Diego has scored two runs or fewer seven times while dropping seven of the last 10 meetings with the Mets.

Suggested bet: Game total -7 (2.5 units @ $1.83) PUSH, Mets WIN (1.5 units @ $2.33) WIN (5-2)

Other tips

IL: Rockies @ Orioles -8.5 $2.05 LOSE (6-3)

AL: Royals +1.5 $2.00 @ Tigers (1) WIN (2-1)

AL: Yankees @ Red Sox -1.5 $2.13 LOSE (10-3)

AL: Blue Jays @ Rays -8 $1.87 LOSE (4-5)

AL: Mariners @ Rangers WIN $1.58 LOSE (3-1)

AL: Astros +1.5 $1.74 @ Angels WIN (8-2)

AL: Indians @ Athletics WIN $1.77 WIN (2-3)

NL: Cardinals @ Cubs WIN $2.10 WIN (0-7)

NL: Dodgers WIN $1.90 WIN @ Phillies -7 $2.06 WIN (4-0)

NL: Diamondbacks WIN $2.42 @ Pirates LOSE (2-6)

NL: Giants WIN $1.94 WIN @ Marlins -7 $1.83 LOSE (14-10)

NL: Nationals @ Braves WIN $1.60 WIN (2-3)

NL: Reds WIN $1.74 LOSE @ Brewers +8 $1.91 WIN (6-7)

CFL (week 8) for August 17

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-4) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-5), Investors Group Field, Winnipeg, MB, Saturday, August 17, 10.10am

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats needed a bye week after edging the Edmonton Eskimos for their second victory. The most injury-riddled team in the CFL, Hamilton hopes to be a little healthier when it visits the Winnipeg Blue Bombers for the first game of a home-and-home set. Tiger-Cats quarterback Henry Burris leads the league in passing yards (1803) despite a depleted receiving corps, which should soon receive a boost when wide receiver Andy Fantuz returns. Along with wide receivers Fantuz and Ed Gant, defensive back Evan McCollough and linebacker Brandon Isaac are close to returning. First-year wide receiver Greg Ellingson has 395 yards and three touchdowns. Hamilton’s defense has not recorded an interception and is tied for last in the league with 11 sacks, part of the reason it has allowed a league-worst 187 points.

The struggling Blue Bombers used their bye week to fire general manager Joe Mack and replace team CEO Garth Buchko with Wade Miller after a rough start put the team at the bottom of the East Division. Coach Tim Burke announced that third-string quarterback Max Hall will make his first career start in an attempt to shake up Winnipeg’s aimless offense, which has scored more than 20 points just once since Week 1. The one strength of the Blue Bombers remains their defense, which leads the league with 24 sacks. Hall will replace quarterback Justin Goltz, who completed 32-of-63 passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the past two games after taking over for injured starter Buck Pierce. Defensive end Alex Hall has a league-leading eight sacks, but Winnipeg has allowed eight passing TDs in its past three games.

Suggested bet: Blue Bombers +4 (three units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +52 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (37-18)

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