Daily tips for January 5

What’s on today

Plenty – we start with a packed program of 32 games in the third round of the FA Cup, where EPL sides will be in action for the first time; NFL playoff action also kicks-off today with the Chiefs v Colts clash rated a coin-flip while the Saints will start a slight underdog in Philadelphia; the one College Football bowl game scheduled features Vanderbilt and Houston while Oklahoma City’s trip to Minnesota highlights the nine-game NBA slate; I’ll also have NHL, racing and more throughout the day; GL punters!

Racing for January 5

Horse racing: Kilmore (Vic), Gilgandra (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Pinjarra (WA), Warrnambool (Vic), Murwillumbah (NSW), Hobart (Tas). Harness racing: Horsham (Vic), Launceston (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Warrnambool (Vic), Sale (Vic), Gawler (SA), Canberra (ACT), Albion Park (Qld).

Confirmed bets

Gilgandra R1 #4 Yes Zariz (win) 1st ($2.20)

Kilmore R7 #10 St Chloe (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Murwillumbah R5 #11 Vi’s Reign (win) LOSE (3rd)

Warrnambool R5 #8 Young Tigers Jeuny (win) 1st ($2.50)

Hobart R4 #4 Acacia Bloom (win) 1st ($1.70)

Leans

Gilgandra R5 #2 Commentz (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Gilgandra R7 #7 Kailas Law (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Kilmore R3 #6 Riviera Riches (win) LOSE (2nd)

Kilmore R5 #1 Danger Close (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Murwillumbah R2 #2 Vivaheart (win) 1st ($2.50)

Warrnambool R6 #10 Great Lane (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.60/$1.70)

Ipswich R5 #2 Gallinari (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Ipswich R8 #2 One Grey (win)

Sunshine Coast R7 #9 Jitterbug (win) LOSE (4th)

NHL for January 5

Philadelphia Flyers (20-17-4, 44 points) @ Phoenix Coyotes (20-11-9, 49 points), Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ, Sunday, January 5, 12.10am

The Phoenix Coyotes are expected to welcome their captain back to the ice against the Philadelphia Flyers while potentially dealing with the absence of one of their top defensemen Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Shane Doan was cleared by doctors Friday after a bout with Rocky Mountain Fever sidelined him for almost a month. Phoenix (20-11-9) is surely thrilled to have its captain back after going 4-3-5 without him. Doan still leads the team with 12 goals, sharing top spot with Antoine Vermette. The Coyotes have missed his production during a 2-3-4 stretch that includes six straight games decided by one goal (two in overtime and one via shootout). They fell again Thursday, losing 2-0 at home to Columbus, as they were shut out for the first time this season. Ekman-Larsson may not get that opportunity after he suffered an upper-body injury in the first period on a hit by the Blue Jackets’ Derek MacKenzie. No penalty was called on the play, but MacKenzie was suspended three games by the NHL on Friday.

This is the first meeting in Phoenix since the Coyotes fell 4-2 on December 3, 2011, after winning five of the previous six. The Flyers are looking to get back on track after falling 2-1 at Colorado on Thursday, ending their four-game winning streak. That included the first three of this six-game road trip, which ends at New Jersey. Wayne Simmonds continues to be a force with eight goals and four assists over the past eight games. The right wing had 15 points through the first 33. Simmonds has four goals and two assists over his past seven visits to the desert. The Flyers are expected to be without rookie Michael Raffl, who suffered a concussion on a hit from Gabriel Landeskog of the Avalanche in the second period. Claude Giroux has been held without a point for two games after tallying 17 in the previous nine. The captain has two goals and two assists in five career meetings with the Coyotes, scoring the decisive tally in the latest visit to Phoenix.

Confirmed bets

Winnipeg Jets @ Boston Bruins -1.5 (one unit @ $2.40) WIN (1-4)

San Jose Sharks @ Colorado Avalanche +5.5 (one unit @ $2.15) WIN (3-4)

Philadelphia Flyers WIN @ Phoenix Coyotes (one unit @ $2.10) WIN (5-3)

Nashville Predators @ Florida Panthers +5 (one unit @ $1.83) WIN (4-5)

Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings WIN (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (1-3)

Leans

New Jersey Devils WIN $1.80 @ Buffalo Sabres LOSE (1-2)

New York Rangers WIN $2.15 @ Toronto Maple Leafs WIN (7-1)

Ottawa Senators WIN $2.35 @ Montreal Canadiens WIN (4-3)

Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders WIN $1.80 LOSE (3-2)

Columbus Blue Jackets @ St Louis Blues WIN NT $1.74 WIN (2-6)

Washington Capitals @ Minnesota Wild NO LEAN

Detroit Red Wings @ Dallas Stars +5.5 $1.95 WIN (5-1)

NBA for January 5

Los Angeles Clippers (23-12, 9-9 away) @ San Antonio Spurs (25-8, 12-5 home), AT&T Center, San Antonio, Sunday, January 5, 12.40pm

The last time the Los Angeles Clippers played the San Antonio Spurs, Chris Paul turned in a terrific effort while Tony Parker (pictured) left early. Sadly, there won’t be a rematch between these outstanding point guards. Paul will miss three to five weeks after separating his right shoulder in Friday’s 119-112 win at Dallas. He was tripped by Mavericks guard Monta Ellis while dribbling around a screen. He rolled over and stayed on the floor holding his shoulder while trainers attended to him. Darren Collison, who started a game in November that Paul missed, will take over at point guard. Collison scored a season-high 20 points against Dallas. Paul not only leads the league in assists per game but also entered play Friday averaging 7.4 minutes with the ball in his hands to rank third in the NBA. His average of 97.9 touches per game also ranked third. Paul had 23 points, eight rebounds and seven assists on December 16 in a 115-92 win over San Antonio (25-8) in which Parker scored eight points before leaving with a right shin contusion.

The Spurs have been on a roller coaster run over the Christmas/New Year period with losses to Houston and a 105-101 home loss to lowly New York on Thursday. That defeat overshadowed Marco Belinelli’s career-high 32 points. Los Angeles (23-12) has won two of its last three regular-season games in San Antonio after losing 40 of its previous 43 there. Without Paul, the Clippers figure to lean more on their frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. Each scored 25 and posted double-doubles Friday, with Jordan grabbing 18 boards and Griffin 15. Griffin had 27 points and nine rebounds in the first meeting while Duncan countered with 17 and 11. The Clippers’ depth will also be tested against a Spurs team that leads the NBA with 46.3 points per game from its reserves. San Antonio also leads the Western Conference in field goal percentage at 48.5. In this great bounceback spot, I favour the Spurs to hit the floor running for a big win over the Clippers.

Confirmed bets

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs -8.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (92-116)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns -8.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (100-116)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers -12.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (101-99)

Leans

New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers -193.5 $1.91 WIN (82-99)

Miami Heat -9 $1.91@ Orlando Magic WIN (110-94)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets -193.5 $1.91 WIN (82-89)

Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls +191 $1.91 LOSE (84-91)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves +208 $1.91 WIN (115-111)

Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 $1.91@ Sacramento Kings WIN (113-103)

NFL playoffs (game 2) for January 5

NFC Wild-Card: New Orleans Saints (11-5, 3-5 away) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, 4-4 home), Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA, Sunday, January 5, 12.10pm

New Orleans has dominated opponents at home this season, but the road has been a different story. The sixth-seeded Saints take aim at their first road playoff win in franchise history when they visit the third-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, who enter this match-up as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. There will be no shortage of points, as the Eagles (second) and Saints (fourth) are among the league leaders in total offence while featuring some of the NFL’s top skill-position players – QB Drew Brees and TE Jimmy Graham and the Eagles’ duo of QB Nick Foles (pictured) and RB LeSean McCoy, to name a few. New Orleans had lost three of four before routing Tampa Bay 42-17 last week – a win that improved the Saints to 8-0 at home compared to their 3-5 record on the road. Brees was second in the NFL in passing yards (5162) and touchdowns (39). The Saints’ defence is improved from past seasons – they allowed the second-fewest passing yards (194.1) and surrendered 20 points or fewer 12 times, although they were the only NFL team without a defensive touchdown in 2013.

The Eagles, meanwhile, had lost 10 straight home games before winning their final four contests at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia rebounded from a 3-5 start to win seven of its last eight games, thanks in large part to the steady play of Foles (27 TDs, two INTs, NFL-best 119.2 passer rating) and McCoy, who led the league with a franchise-record 1607 rushing yards. Chip Kelly’s offence had a staggering 98 plays of at least 20 yards this season with DeSean Jackson (career highs of 82 catches for 1332 yards) leading the way through the air. The NFC East champions must find some way to slow Graham, who paced the NFL with 16 TD catches, particularly given their history of struggling with opposing tight ends, including the Cowboys' Jason Witten (12 catches, 135 yards last week). Only one team in the NFL (Seattle) created more turnovers than Philadelphia this season. The Eagles forced 31 turnovers (19 interceptions and 12 fumbles) including three turnovers in their season-ending, do-or-die win at Dallas. Throw in the weather, which is likely to be brutally cold, and I like the Eagles to progress.

Confirmed bet

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles -3 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (26-24)

Leans

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles -54.5 $1.91 WIN (26-24)

LeSean McCoy – total gross rushing yards +114.5 $1.87 LOSE (77)


College Football for January 5

BBVA Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4, 4-4 SEC) v Houston Cougars (8-4, 5-3 American), Legion Field, Birmingham, AL, Sunday, January 5, 5am

Houston and Vanderbilt meet in the BBVA Compass Bowl without important pieces of their respective offences. Commodores senior quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels, who started the last three regular-season games, will not play after having surgery on his left knee. Houston offensive coordinator Doug Meacham took the same position at TCU after the regular season, leaving assistant head coach Travis Bush to return to play-calling duties. Vanderbilt extended its streak to nine straight November wins, finishing the regular season with four straight victories (including the last two by a combined six points). Redshirt freshman Patton Robinette (40-of-69, 488 yards, two touchdowns, six rushing scores) made two starts for the Commodores, who are playing in their third straight bowl game for the first time in school history. Matthews broke his own single-season school record with 1334 yards and owns Vanderbilt and SEC marks for career receptions (257), career yards (3616), 100-yard games (18) and single-season receptions (107).

The Cougars lost all four of their games by seven points or fewer, including three straight in November before ending the season with a 34-0 victory over SMU. The Houston defense – ranked first in the country in takeaways (40) and turnover margin (plus-25) – will have its hands full with Jordan Matthews, the SEC’s record-breaking receiver. The Cougars also have a 1000-yard receiver in Deontay Greenberry. Freshman John O'Korn, who started the last 10 games, went 239-of-399 for 2889 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. With a young quarterback, the team is optimistic that this season is only the start of great things to come for the program. Adrian McDonald had five of the team's 23 interceptions and Trevon Stewart recovered six of the 17 fumbles. Bush called plays for 11 games in 2012 and was promoted to offensive coordinator (the Cougars' seventh in six years) on December 6. Another tough game to call but Houston’s offence combined with their ability to create turnovers should ensure the total sails over the total on offer.

Confirmed bet

Vanderbilt Commodores v Houston Cougars +52.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (41-24)

Lean

Vanderbilt Commodores v Houston Cougars +2.5 $1.91 LOSE (41-24)

NFL playoffs (game 1) for January 5

AFC Wild-Card: Kansas City Chiefs (11-5, 6-2 away) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 6-2 home), Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, Sunday, January 5, 8.40am

Once the playoffs have started, the race to the Super Bowl is all about momentum. A mediocre regular season record is no impediment in the battle to reach the NFL title game. The Indianapolis Colts finished 11-5, mostly thanks to appalling form of their AFC South rivals. But they closed the season with three lopsided victories, including a 23-7 romp in Kansas City, and now have the luxury of home-field advantage when they host the Chiefs in an AFC wild-card round. The Colts allowed a staggering 82 points in road losses to Arizona and Cincinnati before sinking the Chiefs, part of a three-game run in which they have outscored the opposition 78-20. Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning five of the last six. The Indianapolis offence went sideways when QB Andrew Luck (pictured) lost his favourite target, Reggie Wayne, to a season-ending knee injury in week 7. But Luck has established chemistry with young wideouts T.Y. Hilton, Griff Whalen and Da'Rick Rogers, throwing for eight TDs and one interception in the final four weeks. RB Donald Brown has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scoring six rushing TDs (two against KC).

The Chiefs have enjoyed a resurgence under new coach Andy Reid and former 49ers QB Alex Smith. Kansas City missed out on the AFC West title and a first-round bye with its late-season struggles, though some of its key players had a week off in Sunday's 27-24 loss at San Diego. Smith was among them. Unlike the Colts, Kansas City wobbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games after opening the season with nine straight wins and leading the league in points allowed. The Chiefs, seeking their first post-season victory since Joe Montana was under center in 1994, committed an uncharacteristic four turnovers in the loss to the Colts on December 22. There remains uncertainty whether leading wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be cleared to play after suffering a concussion, but that won’t alter the game plan. The Chiefs will feature a heavy dose of running back Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while hauling in a team-high 70 receptions. Such a tough game to call but I expect points to be premium.

Confirmed bet

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts WIN (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (44-45)

Andrew Luck – total gross passing yards +237.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (443)

Lean

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts -46 $1.91) LOSE (44-45)
 

Football (FA Cup round 3) for January 5

Everton v Queens Park Rangers, Goodison Park, Liverpool, England, Sunday, November 5, 2am

The third round of the FA Cup marks the first time that clubs from the Premier League and Championship join the competition and the 24 lower league sides still in contention for one of the world’s most famous sporting trophies. Firstly, a couple of points regarding the determination the top-tier clubs to compete at 100 per cent in this tournament. Recent history shows that clubs battling for their EPL survival are basically happy to cede their FA Cup chances and focus on the League. Unusually this season, the battle for the EPL title and Champions League spots is spread across several sides so the FA Cup takes on added significance. There’s also a very strong middle-tier of clubs such as Newcastle, Southampton and Everton who will fancy their chances of going all the way. The other key trend to consider is that games featuring home sides favoured by more than 1.5 goals trend ‘over’ 2.5 goals while the opposite holds for hot favourites on the road. It’s one of those likely contenders that I’m making my best bet of the night.

Everton host Championship high-fliers Queens Park Rangers to Goodison Park, which, on the surface, would appear to be a danger game for the Toffees. The tie features a battle of recent FA Cup winning managers Roberto Martinez (Wigan Athletic in 2012) and Harry Redknapp (Portsmouth in 2008). However, Redknapp has made it clear that Rangers’ priority is a swift return to the top flight with several players including defenders Richard Dunne and Danny Simpson to be rested. Martinez is likely to give Joel Robles the nod in goal. He was a regular fixture under Martinez in Wigan’s FA Cup success last season and will be deployed between the posts ahead of first-choice goalkeeper Tim Howard. Dutch defender Johnny Heitinga could find himself in the Toffees' starting line-up after rejecting a January move to West Ham United, while Croatian striker Nikica Jelavic too could be given a start against Rangers. Everton will be without defenders Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin, but Leighton Baines is likely to start at left-back. I like the Toffees to win comfortably here, with the one-goal handicap worth the risk.

Confirmed bets

Barnsley v Coventry City WIN (one unit @ $2.80) WIN (1-2)

Aston Villa v Sheffield United – double chance (one unit @ $2.45) WIN (1-2)

Blackburn Rovers v Manchester City – to nil (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (1-1)

Everton -1 v Queens Park Rangers (one unit @ $2.00) WIN (4-0)

Bristol City (double chance) v Watford (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (1-1)

Newcastle United WIN v Cardiff City (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (1-2)
Stoke City v Leicester City -2.5 (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (2-1)

Barnsley v Coventry City +2.5 (one unit @ $1.62) WIN (1-2)

Southampton WIN v Burnley (one unit @ $1.57) WIN (4-3)

Leans

Doncaster Rovers v Stevenage (double chance) $1.85 WIN (2-3)

Brighton & Hove Albion v Reading WIN $3.50 LOSE (1-0)

Middlesbrough v Hull City WIN $3.10 WIN (0-2)

Rochdale v Leeds United WIN $1.91 LOSE (2-0)

Grimsby Town (double chance) v Huddersfield Town $1.85 LOSE (2-3)

Southend United WIN $3.10 v Millwall WIN (4-1)

AFC Bournemouth v Burton Albion -2.5 $2.05 POSTPONED

Wigan Athletic WIN $1.80 v Milton Keynes Dons LOSE (3-3)

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur -2.5 $2.10 WIN (2-0)

Yeovil Town v Leyton Orient DRAW $3.40 LOSE (4-0)
West Bromwich Albion WIN $1.67 v Crystal Palace LOSE (0-2)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.