What’s on today
A busy Sunday/Monday kicks-off with two EPL games
where plenty of goals should be scored in Manchester City’s trip to Newcastle;
the NFL divisional playoffs wrap-up with San Francisco in Charlotte to face the
Panthers while Denver hosts San Diego in the late game; it’s awards season for
the entertainment industry and we have an early look at the Oscars’ markets
prior to the announcement of the Golden Globe Awards later today; the
Australian Open kicks-off at Melbourne Park with my day one and overall picks
to come, along with NBA, NHL and as much as I can process throughout a manic
Monday; GL punters!
NHL for January 13
Detroit Red Wings (20-15-10, 50 points) @ Anaheim
Ducks (34-8-5, 73 points), Honda Center, Anaheim, CA, Monday, January 13, 12.10pm
The Anaheim Ducks have been outstanding at both ends
on their home ice, but they might have to continue their run without Ryan
Getzlaf and Jonas Hiller. The Detroit Red Wings will certainly try to rattle
goaltender John Gibson (pictured) should he make his debut Sunday night when the Ducks
look to remain unbeaten in regulation at the Honda Center. Hampus Lindholm
scored twice and Getzlaf added his 23rd goal of the season as league-best
Anaheim (34-8-5) won its sixth straight and 16th in the last 17 by beating host
Phoenix 5-3 on Saturday. After completing a sweep of the five-game season
series with the Coyotes, the surging Ducks hope to improve on their NHL-best
18-0-2 home record. Getzlaf, however, may not be available after sustaining a
lower-body injury in the second period. X-rays were negative on the Anaheim captain,
who ranks among the NHL leaders with 53 points. Without Getzlaf, the Ducks may
have to rely on another strong defensive performance. They’re allowing 2.45
goals per game overall but that number drops to 1.90 at home (one of the top
marks in the NHL).
Hiller is 13-0-2 with a 1.98 goals-against average at
the Honda Center, while back-up Frederik Andersen is 4-0-0 with a 1.36 GAA. The
Ducks sent Andersen to the AHL on Friday for more playing time and
recalled Gibson, the MVP of the 2013 world junior championships after
backstopping the USA to the title. Anaheim should be able to provide
plenty of support since it ranks near the top of the league with 3.95 goals per
game at home and has scored at least four goals in each of its six games
overall. With Jimmy Howard out because of a knee injury, the Ducks had their
way with Detroit’s back-up goaltenders in a 5-2 road win on December 17. While
they’re just 6-10-7 at home, the Red Wings have the best road record in the
Eastern Conference at 14-5-3 after a 2-1 start to this five-game trip. The Red
Wings, however, could be missing two of their top scorers with Pavel Datsyuk
(lower body) and Daniel Alfredsson (back) day-to-day after both sat out
Saturday.
Confirmed bets
2014 Australian Open (day 1), the Grand Slam of Asia-Pacific,
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia, January 13
Suggested bets
Jordan Thompson WIN $3.55 LOSE v Jerzy Janowicz +39 $1.87 WIN (42)
NHL for January 13
Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks WIN NT (one unit @
$1.80) WIN (0-1)
Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals -5.5 (one unit @
$1.75) WIN (2-1)
New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars WIN (one unit @
$1.74) LOSE (4-2)
Leans
New Jersey Devils WIN $2.10 @ Toronto Maple Leafs LOSE (2-3)
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers WIN $1.66 WIN (1-4)
Edmonton Oilers +1.5 $1.80 @ Chicago Blackhawks LOSE (3-5)
Minnesota Wild @ Nashville Predators -5 $2.00 WIN (4-0)
Tennis (Australian Open) for January 13
Pic with thanks to www.tennis.com.au
The gates are open for the opening day’s play at
Melbourne Park, which also marks the start of a week-long heatwave with
temperatures set to crack the 40°C-mark. It looms as a forgettable opening
round for the local hopes with several matched against top seeds but one young
Aussie who could buck the trend is 19-year-old Jordan Thompson (pictured). His opponent
Jerzy Janowicz was less than impressive in his match against Aleksandr
Dolgopolov a week ago. Janowicz is still over-reliant on his serve. He served
poorly against Dolgopolov in Sydney and was crushed. Thompson showed he could
play a bit at the Kooyong Classic where he beat Juan Monaco and took a set off
Richard Gasquet. Thompson survived his first five set match to seize the
Australian Open wildcard with a 6-3 6-2 4-6 4-6 6-1 victory over last year’s
Australian Open Play-off champion, Ben Mitchell in a match that went well over
three hours. In 2013, Thompson won his first two professional titles with
victories at Futures events in Austria and Australia. He’ll have the
well-refreshed crowd behind him in the evening and is well capable of scoring
an upset here.
Dudi Sela v Jarkko Nieminen +37.5 games $1.87 WIN (53)
Marcos Baghdatis v Denis Istomin +40 games $1.85 LOSE (32)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez WIN $2.45 v Tommy Haas WIN (RETIRED)
Bradley Klahn 3-2 $8.50 v Grigor Dimitrov LOSE (1-3)
Fabio Fognini v Alex Bogomolov jr WIN $2.00 LOSE (RETIRED)
Mikhail Youzny v Jan-Lennard Struff WIN $4.00 LOSE
Juan Monaco $5.00 WIN v Ernests Gulbis LOSE
Daniela Hantuchova v Heather Watson +21 games $1.87 WIN (30)
Kirsten Flipkens 2-0 v Laura Robson $2.10 WIN (2-0)
Ashleigh Barty v Serena Williams -16 games $1.93 WIN (15)
Note: I will not confirm any Australian Open bets
until Wednesday due to some uncertainty regarding the speed of the courts and
balls in use.
NFL playoffs (late game) for January 13
AFC Divisional Playoff: San Diego Chargers (9-7, 4-4 away) @ Denver Broncos (13-3, 7-1 home), Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO, Monday, January 13, 8.40am
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos get a chance to avenge their only home loss when they host the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers in the AFC divisional round. Manning (pictured) guided Denver to the top seed behind a record-setting offence that surpassed 600 points for the first time in League history. Manning set league single-season records for touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477) but he is trying to end a streak of three straight post-season defeats, including a 38-35 loss in double overtime last season when the Broncos were also the No. 1 seed. Wide receiver Wes Welker returns to the line-up after missing the past two games with a concussion, giving Manning his full array of weapons. Denver is the only team in NFL history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns. Eric Decker established career highs in yards (1288) and receptions (87) while tight end Julius Thomas hauled in 12 scoring passes. Knowshon Moreno yielded more playing time to rookie running back Montee Ball down the stretch, but the onus will be on a defense that allowed 24.9 points and 254.4 passing yards per game.
The Broncos were held under 30 points only three
times and two of them came against the Chargers, who lost a 28-20 decision in
San Diego before pulling out a 27-20 win in Denver on December 12. Chargers
quarterback Philip Rivers is 6-2 in his career in Denver. San Diego ran its
winning streak to five games with a 27-10 win at Cincinnati last weekend, but
enter this match-up with major concerns about running back Ryan Mathews’
availability. Mathews averaged 118.3 yards in the final four games of the
regular season, including 127 in the victory over the Broncos, but he
aggravated an ankle injury in the third quarter last week and did not return.
Rivers put up pedestrian numbers against the Bengals (12-of-16, 128 yards, 1
TD), but he completed a league-high 69.5 per cent of his passes during the
regular season. San Diego's defence ranked 29th in passing yards allowed (258.7
yards) but limited opponents to an average of 16.3 points over the last six
games. Temperatures will be in the high-30s with a 13 per cent chance of snow.
Confirmed bet
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos +54.5 (one unit @
$1.91) LOSE (17-24)
Leans
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos -8 $1.91 LOSE (17-24)
Total passing yards – Peyton Manning +330.5 $1.91 LOSE (230)
Minnesota Timberwolves (18-18, 7-11 away) @ San
Antonio Spurs (28-8, 14-5 home), AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX, Monday, January
13, 11.10am
Kevin Love took the unusual step of publicly calling
out his teammates after a tough loss and the tactic seemed to work – at least
for one night. Will the Timberwolves carry that momentum to a second straight
triumph when they visit the San Antonio Spurs? Love (pictured) was upset that certain
reserves did not join the huddle or encourage teammates down the stretch of a
104-103 loss to Phoenix on Wednesday but had no complaints after trouncing
Charlotte on Friday. The 119-92 victory over the Bobcats brought Minnesota back
to .500 at 18-18, and it will take its ninth shot at going above the even mark.
Love recorded 19 points and 14 rebounds Friday before sitting on the end of the
bench and watching the second unit he had chastised earlier close out the win.
J.J. Barea was one of the targets of Love’s comments and he ended up with seven
points and five assists against the Bobcats. The Spurs will aim for a fourth
straight win despite Manu Ginobili (hamstring) and Tiago Splitter (shoulder)
dealing with injuries.
San Antonio won six of its last seven games to take
over the top record in the Western Conference and overcame 42 points from Love
to post a 117-110 home victory over the Timberwolves on December 13. Ginobili
could be ready to go here, though San Antonio did not have much need for the
veteran swingman while crushing Dallas 112-90 on Wednesday. The Spurs are
averaging 111.4 points in their last seven games and had 17 points off the
bench from Marco Belinelli out of Ginobili’s usual spot on Wednesday. Tim
Duncan is on a roll with three straight double-doubles and is averaging 19.7
points and 13.7 rebounds during that stretch while Splitter has been out of the
line-up for the last two. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Spurs’ past eight games
following an ATS win – a trend I’m expecting to continue here. San Antonio and
Minnesota had a scheduled game in Mexico City on December 4 postponed when
smoke from a damaged generator outside filled the arena. It will be made up
April 8 in Minneapolis.
Confirmed bet
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs +212.5
(one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (86-104)
Leans
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 $1.91 @ Sacramento Kings LOSE (80-124)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs -5.5 $1.91 WIN (86-104)
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 $1.91 WIN (101-108)
NFL playoffs (late game) for January 13
AFC Divisional Playoff: San Diego Chargers (9-7, 4-4 away) @ Denver Broncos (13-3, 7-1 home), Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO, Monday, January 13, 8.40am
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos get a chance to avenge their only home loss when they host the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers in the AFC divisional round. Manning (pictured) guided Denver to the top seed behind a record-setting offence that surpassed 600 points for the first time in League history. Manning set league single-season records for touchdowns (55) and yards (5,477) but he is trying to end a streak of three straight post-season defeats, including a 38-35 loss in double overtime last season when the Broncos were also the No. 1 seed. Wide receiver Wes Welker returns to the line-up after missing the past two games with a concussion, giving Manning his full array of weapons. Denver is the only team in NFL history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns. Eric Decker established career highs in yards (1288) and receptions (87) while tight end Julius Thomas hauled in 12 scoring passes. Knowshon Moreno yielded more playing time to rookie running back Montee Ball down the stretch, but the onus will be on a defense that allowed 24.9 points and 254.4 passing yards per game.
Total passing yards – Peyton Manning +330.5 $1.91 LOSE (230)
NBA for January 13
Leans
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 $1.91 @ Sacramento Kings LOSE (80-124)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs -5.5 $1.91 WIN (86-104)
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 $1.91 WIN (101-108)
Entertainment feature for January 13
Favourites win at the Dolby Theatre and finding value in Oscar is all about timing. Nominations for the Academy Awards are announced on January 16, just a few days after one of the season’s most reliable award bellwethers – the Golden Globes. In the past 20 years the Globes have matched the Oscars 91 times from a possible 140. But it’s important to note that some categories have been more successful than others. The Globes have an 85 per cent strike rate with the Oscars in the category of Best Actress with the same performer taking home both gongs since 1996. The correlation is similar in the Best Actor category with the two matching up 60 per cent of the time – just one Oscar winner – Sean Penn (Milk) failed to take home a Globe. But when it comes to Best Picture and Best Director the link becomes a little murky.
Despite having two categories for the former – Best Picture: Drama and Best Picture: Comedy/Musical the Globes have correctly predicted only four of the past 10 Oscar winners. Three were dramas – The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire and Argo – and one, The Artist, was a comedy. By way of comparison, the Directors’ Guild has picked nine of the past 10 best picture winners. It’s a similar story in the best director category with the Globes failing to match the Oscars four out of the past five years – Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) was the last director to win both awards. However, history also demonstrates that it is rare for a film that has not been nominated for a Golden Globe to win the Oscar for Best Picture. In fact, it has happened only six times since the 1950s.
So, while they may well pick up acting awards on
March 2, Saving Mr Banks, The Butler, August: Osage County and Blue Jasmine are
all but out of the running for Best Picture. The books are aware of
the correlation between the Oscars and the Globes and odds often shorten once
the winners of the Globes are known. Placing bets before the Globes is key to
securing a reasonable price and capitalising on any outside chances that
suddenly gain momentum once the nominations for the Academy Awards are
revealed. This year, the Academy Awards have been pushed back to prevent a
clash with the closing of the Winter Olympics, and final votes aren’t due until February 25. The date change could be a
factor for nominated films with late release dates, such as 12 Years A Slave.
This year’s main target has been The Wolf of Wall
Street, with director Martin Scorsese criticised for glorifying the excesses of
Wall Street when the US economy is still recovering and the copious sex scenes
and heavy drug use in the film. Another favourite for best picture, Philomena,
has had to deal with accusations of being anti-Catholic. That claim, made by the New York Post film critic Kyle Smith, led to Weinstein Co taking out print
ads to refute the statement. Not all marketing campaigns hit the mark either. A
poster promoting 12 Years A Slave in Italy has raised eyebrows for its design,
which featured a dominant image of Brad Pitt rather than the film’s star, the
relatively unknown Chiwetel Ejiofor and led to suggestions that the picture was
insensitive to race issues.
• Stirring and at times brutal, 12 Years A Slave is the memoir of Solomon Northup, a free man who is sold into captivity in 1840s Louisiana. Bringing Northup’s quest for freedom to the big screen was a labour of love for English art house director Steve McQueen and it is one that allows actors to shine. Well before awards season kicked off, lead Chiwetel Ejiofor was priced at $11 as best actor. Lupita Nyongo is a standout in her role as and she is a good chance to beat Jennifer Lawrence to the podium in the Best Supporting Actress category. The feature also stars Michael Fassbender and Brad Pitt (who also co-produces) in supporting roles. Fassbender is a contender for an Oscar nomination but his vote may be split with Pitt and he would have to outpoll Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club).
• Gravity director Alfonso Cuaron has created a totally convincing version of space and the result is an edge of the seat thriller. Sandra Bullock and George Clooney play astronauts stranded in space after their ship is hit by debris. Bullock spends most of the film on her own and should win the Best Actress category but she’ll find it hard to defeat front runner Cate Blanchett in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. Cuaron’s efforts should win him a statue for best director, but the Oscar record books show that history beats hi-tech every time.
• Purists may argue that when it comes to transformations the Academy can’t go past Dallas Buyers Club and the remarkable performance of Mathew McConaughey as a man dying of AIDS. Based on a true story – another of the Academy’s favourite genres – the film includes Jared Leto, who also had to shed a lot of weight for the role and is a favourite for best supporting actor. McConaughey is virtually unrecognisable as Ron Woodroof, a HIV-positive electrician who defied the Food and Drug Administration by smuggling illegal AIDS medications across the border from Mexico, and his character stays with you long after the credits roll. However, the film itself has the same baggage as 12 Years A Slave in that it might just be too harrowing.
• Nebraska follows the fortunes of alcoholic father Woody Grant who believes he holds a $1 million winning lottery ticket. Despite the efforts of his family to dissuade him he travels to Nebraska from Montana with his estranged 20-something son to collect the prize. Bruce Dern first read the script 10 years ago and if industry whispers are correct, he had to beat out Gene Hackman for the role in the Alexander Payne drama. Dern has already collected the Best Actor statuette at the Cannes Film Festival for his understated portrayal and is in line for his first Oscar nomination since 1978 for Coming Home. Dern’s co-star June Squibb could also take home a Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her turn as the tart-tongued matriarch Kate Grant in the film.
Confirmed bets
Best Picture – 12 Years a Slave $1.40
Best Actor – Chiwetel Ejiofor $1.50
Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto $1.40
Best Supporting Actress – Jennifer Lawrence $4.50
Leans
Best Picture – American Hustle $6.50
Best Actress – Amy Adams $26
Best Supporting Actor – Barkhad Abdi $23
Best Supporting Actress – June Squibb $26
Tennis (Australian Open) preview for January 13
2014 Australian Open, the Grand Slam of Asia-Pacific,
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia, January 13-26
Pic with thanks to australianopen.com
For 49 weeks of the year, Bernard Tomic is regarded as annoying background noise – a talented tennis player but carrying enough baggage to fill an A-380. But once New Year’s Eve is celebrated, our ‘Bernie’ ascends a mythical platform as Australia’s great hope for the summer of tennis. Plenty have come before – Pat Cash, Lleyton Hewitt, Pat Rafter, Lleyton Hewitt, Mark Philippoussis, Lleyton Hewitt, Peter Luczak, Lleyton Hewitt, some other guy. Lleyton Hewitt. Australian Open officials must have almost regurgitated their breakfast when Bernie drew No.1 seed Rafael Nadal in the opening round. Appropriately, Sportsbet posted a market on the first Melbourne nightspot at which Bernie would be spotted during the Australian Open!
Andy Murray to miss the final (five units @ $1.22)
Women’s Singles winner – Serena Williams (two units @
$1.60)
NFC Divisional Playoff: San Francisco 49ers (12-4, 6-2 away) @ Carolina Panthers (12-4, 7-1 home), Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC, Monday, January 13, 5am
Confirmed bet
Lean
EPL for January 13
Yesterday was a humbling experience for EPL punters (yours truly included). Sunderland’s 4-1 win over Fulham (a correct score that was rated $180 for $1) summed up a tough day at the office. If nothing else, tonight’s clash between Newcastle United and Manchester City should be good viewing, and hopefully profitable! Six goals against West Ham on Wednesday took Manchester City’s total to 92 from 31 games played this season. Half of those have come in the last 14 games, and with results and goals now coming easily away from home too, making their trip to Newcastle not as daunting as it may have been in the last two months of 2013. It’s no exaggeration to say that City have been world beaters since they lost to Sunderland at the beginning of November although they could be down to third on the table by the time this game kicks-off, but a victory will take them top of the pile for at least 24 hours with Arsenal not playing until Monday night. Yaya Toure (pictured), Jesus Navas and Micah Richards are available after recent injuries.
Newcastle United v Manchester City WIN (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (0-2)
Stoke City (double chance) $2.50 v Liverpool LOSE (3-5)
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